Aaron Weiland

Everyone who watches the games knows from the eye test that Eddy Julien has an elite eye at the plate. But, just how elite is it? And is that all that is making him special right now? Quick Glossary of terms before we begin for the uninitiated: O-Swing%: Percentage of pitches outside the strike zone that the batter swings at Z-Swing%: Percentage of pitches inside the strike zone that the batter swings at O-Contact%: Percentage of swings on pitches outside the strike zone in which the batter makes contact Z-Contact%: Percentage of swings on pitches in the strike zone in which the batter makes contact Barrel%: Percentage of batted ball events that meet or exceed 98 MPH exit velo, within a specific launch angle range based on the exit velo. Most dangerous category of batted balls Let's start with O-Swing%. Among MLB hitters with 200 PAs or more, Edouard Julien has the lowest O-Swing% at 18.9%. Second place is Juan Soto with 19%. There are only 5 hitters in the entire major leagues with an O-Swing% at or below 20%: Edouard Julien (18.9%) Juan Soto (19%) Mookie Betts (19%) Lamonte Wade Jr. (19.7%) Travis Jankowski. (19.9%) So, Eddy doesn't chase. At all. He's the best in the league at not swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. But is this just the result of passivity? If you or I go to the plate in the MLB and only swing when the ball is middle-middle (or not at all), our O-Swing% would look elite. So to find out if this is passivity or discipline, we need to look at his Z-Swing%. Here are those same five hitters from earlier, but listed with their Z-Swing%: Edouard Julien (68.4%) Juan Soto (59.1%) Mookie Betts (64%) Lamonte Wade Jr. (64.1%) Travis Jankowski (60.3%) Edouard Julien is THE most aggressive hitter in zone among hitters in MLB with an O-Swing% below 20%, while simultaneously swing at THE fewest number of pitches outside the zone. In terms of league wide aggressiveness vs. passivity, his 68.4% Z-Swing% would put him right near the median in the league, so he is not even passive relative to the league as a whole. There is only one conclusion you can draw from this. Edouard Julien, at least right now, makes the best overall swing decisions in the major leagues. Better than Juan Soto and Mookie Betts. But, swing decisions are only one aspect of hitting. It doesn't matter if your O-Swing% is 0 and your Z-Swing% is 100 if all of your batted balls look like mine, right? Right. Enter Barrel% and HardHit%. Of MLB hitters with 200 PAs or more, here are the list of hitters with an O-Swing% at or below 25%, a Barrel Rate at or above 15%, and a HardHit% at or above 40%: Aaron Judge Matt Chapman Mike Trout Jack Suwinski, and...... Edouard Julien Jack Suwinski you may not have heard much about because he only broke out this year, but the other 3 you KNOW to be some of the best hitters in the sport, and two of them are some of the best hitters of all time. That's some good company. So, what is the catch here? Well, part of what makes Edouard Julien such a strange profile of a hitter is his propensity to Whiff and K. Generally you find this level of elite swing decisions on profiles of hitters like LaMonte Wade or Jankowski who mostly sell out for contact. So let's take that first list of hitters, and I am going to list their (O-Contact%/Z-Contact%) like so: Edouard Julien (52.4%/79.3%) Juan Soto (63.1%/90.5%) Mookie Betts (61.1%/93.6%) Lamonte Wade Jr (60.4%/89.0%) Travis Jankowski (79.4%/93.4%) These are, as you can see, some quite remarkable differences. In fact, Edouard Julien's contact profile is closer to Joey Gallo's career numbers (42.6%/71.7%) than it is to his fellow plate discipline Kings. Part of what makes Juan Soto, and to a lesser extent Mookie Betts, so unique is he is able to control this zone this well while not having to sell out for either contact or power. He will hit some HRs, he will hit for AVG, he will not chase, he will not swing and miss. Eddy Julien, on the other hand, controls his zone even better than Juan Soto does, but when he swings he is generally looking to do massive damage more than making contact. And he is getting the results while doing so, as neither Mookie Betts or Juan Soto outperform his Barrel%. But it comes at the cost of lower Contact rates and, as a result, more Ks. This is, in my opinion, absolutely the space to watch as Eddy develops and improves. I think it is clear his current approach right now will absolutely play. But MLB hitters are always looking to improve. Can he increase his swing contact rates without sacrificing his power approach? If he can, he will become a no-doubt top 5-10 hitter in the sport. I'm curious what you guys think, do you like his one-of-a-kind approach, or do you think he'd produce even better if he went bent more into the Juan Soto, balanced approach archetype?

You know how every year Falvey drafts a college arm in the late rounds that no one else is interested in but turns out awesome? In 2017 it was Bailey Ober, 2018 it was Cody Funderburk, 2019 it was Varland, 2021 was Festa, 2022 seems like there are about 4 of them in Matthews, Lewis, Culpepper Ethridge etc. I think I've already found this years version. Twins have a few strengths when it comes to pitching development, with some examples included: Adding velo onto low velo throwers (Ober, Varland) Building around seemingly mundane fastballs that have a little uniqueness to them (Ober, Ryan) Ironing out mechanics-related control issues (Duran, Moran [yes I mean this, it used to be way worse]) Well, enter 2023 10th round selection Ross Dunn, LHP from ASU. He's all three of these things. Ross Dunn is a big frame lefty at 6'3". Despite being relatively large framed, his fastball only sits 90-92. But despite being low velo on the fastball, it has a good deceptive quality to it, seemingly hiding the ball behind his head and then behind his upper arm right up basically right up until the point of release. The MLB scouting video on him actually gives a cool slow-mo breakdown on what this looks like about halfway in. Ross Dunn strikes everyone out, despite not being a big Stuff merchant on paper. The deception to his fastball and a big whiff slider led him to strike out an incredible 84 batters in 65 innings in the Pac-12 last year. But MLB notes that he has difficulty locating the fastball, leading to him also walking 44 hitters in those same 65 innings. While I can't see any quality of contact stats for him obviously, he gave up only a 0.7 HR/9, which indicates to me that when he does get hit, it's generally not the loudest of contact. The player on the Twins that this profile reminds me the most of is Jovani Moran, although Dunn has a legitimate 3 pitch mix and thus could stick as a starter provided he finds some control refinement. But even if he does have to transition to a reliever, his ability to miss consistently bats should give him some potential there as well. His overall Scouting Grades: - 55 Fastball - 55 Slider - 50 Changeup - 45 Control. Obviously, he's a project. Every college arm that is still around in the 10th round is a project of some sort and to some degree. But this is pick lines up perfectly with what I perceive the Twins strengths to be from a pitching development standpoint. He has the frame to add a little bit of velo, he has a unique trait fastball to make it play up more from that velo and may lead to missing more bats, and he could truly blossom with some mechanics adjustments that lead to more control. Ross Dunn is personally the arm I'm most excited to pay attention to in the developmental leagues this season/next season.

The lineup is in fact not "weak". If AK and Larnach are healthy, they are above average bats. AK especially, he could be a 130 wRC+ guy if right and hitting near his ceiling. Gordon was an above average bat last year. Kepler/Gallo are lotto tickets, if one of them clicks that's a huge win, but with their defense if one of them even grade out league average at the plate, that's a good player. Buxton - Polanco - Correa - Miranda - Healthy Kirilloff is the best top half of any lineup in the AL Central, and top 10 in the MLB. And we're not even talking about the impact Julien/Lee/Lewis could have this year. One more big bat would be a nice-to-have, and would put them more on par with the big juggernaut/top 5 teams like the Astros, but they don't need one more bat to be a top 10 offense this year. Hell, they were almost a top 10 offense last year trotting out the likes of Celly, Palacios, Contreras and Cave nearly every day in the second half. The question isn't talent, it's health.

I disagree with this framing a lot. Even before Correa resigned, the Twins were better than they were last year. Getting key pieces back from injuries counts. Getting back Maeda, Alcala, presumably healthy Kirilloff etc makes us a better team, as does finally establishing depth from within with Varland, SWR, and perhaps Julien and Lee too.

Yes I'm sure the guys that all loved playing with Correa so much they FaceTimed him to get him involved with a uniform reveal for a team he no longer played for will decide to throw 90mph projectiles at his ribs because he tried to get paid in the offseason, a goal every last one of them share in common. You're taking the game and business of baseball waaaaaaaayyy too seriously.

I guess it would all come down to how big the gap is on the dollars then.

They being the Twins? If so, thats still quite a large stumbling block to get over on the way to stealing him from the Mets unless its something like "Carlos wants $300 and the Twins are at $295" .

The team is not nearly as bad as people keep saying it is. There are 3 major holes in the roster (not in any particular order): 1. SS 2. One more high quality right handed bat 3. A true Ace. Carlos fills two of those needs at once. Hence the infatuation. He's a perfect fit for this roster, and we saw last year he's a great fit in the clubhouse too. It's not Correa or bust, it's still possible that some combination of Royce and Brooks Lee could also fill those first two needs. But your wildest hope is that one day Royce or Lee turn in half the player that Carlos has already proven he is. So why not get the proven quantity?

Eh I'm not so sure about this. If Correa is willing to sign a short term high AAV contract, I'm sure the Mets would be all over that. IF the Twins were to still acquire him after all this, it will probably be because the Mets are offering him a short term high AAV and the Twins are still willing to commit long term.