VIDEO: Luis Arraez Should Have Bunted

[Matthew Lenz]

The Twins fell to the Red Sox 6-5 despite having runners on 1st and 2nd with nobody out and the best hitter at the plate. What do the analytics say about the decision not to sacrifice the runners over?

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[ashbury]

I think your conclusion is sound.  A couple of caveats.

You talked only of Run Expectancy values, but went on to note that a big inning isn't actually needed in that situation. RE is what's better known, but folks like Tom Tango also have developed a similar but more pertinent concept of Run Probability, which you alluded to.  The old adage "play for the win on the road, play for the tie at home" applies, and the table seen in this link suggests that (if bunting is correctly executed 100% of the time) the chance of scoring at all goes up from .7655 to .7826.  https://jackbanks.web.illinois.edu/2021/09/19/expedition-league-run-expectancy-matrix/  , without resorting to handwaving about multiple runs.  A small edge but that's what players and managers should be looking for.

On the other hand, such tables are generally built on overall experience, but "top of the order coming up, bottom of the ninth, one-run game" seems like a special case that could upend generalities.  Splitting things by situation sometimes runs the risk of small sample size, but not in this case as I expect it's frequent enough over the years, and I bet such breakdowns exist, but I haven't the faintest idea where to look.  It's rare times like this that I wish I had made the acquaintance of Tango.

Okay, a third caveat, I don't know if those tables can be further broken down to cases where the next guy at the plate is a low-strikeout guy, but Arraez is such an outlier in today's game that I have to imagine his 7.5% K rate could nudge the close decision.  Look at it the other way, a big strikeout guy seems like someone you'd prefer to have bunt (if he's good at it) to make sure his out is productive.  But I'd want to see statistical evidence about that.

Bottom line, the standard tables are only the starting point.

Anyway.  Yeah.  Bunt. 

Probably.

Maybe.

Yeah.

[Murph]

19 hours ago, ashbury said:

I think your conclusion is sound.  A couple of caveats.

You talked only of Run Expectancy values, but went on to note that a big inning isn't actually needed in that situation. RE is what's better known, but folks like Tom Tango also have developed a similar but more pertinent concept of Run Probability, which you alluded to.  The old adage "play for the win on the road, play for the tie at home" applies, and the table seen in this link suggests that (if bunting is correctly executed 100% of the time) the chance of scoring at all goes up from .7655 to .7826.  https://jackbanks.web.illinois.edu/2021/09/19/expedition-league-run-expectancy-matrix/  , without resorting to handwaving about multiple runs.  A small edge but that's what players and managers should be looking for.

On the other hand, such tables are generally built on overall experience, but "top of the order coming up, bottom of the ninth, one-run game" seems like a special case that could upend generalities.  Splitting things by situation sometimes runs the risk of small sample size, but not in this case as I expect it's frequent enough over the years, and I bet such breakdowns exist, but I haven't the faintest idea where to look.  It's rare times like this that I wish I had made the acquaintance of Tango.

Okay, a third caveat, I don't know if those tables can be further broken down to cases where the next guy at the plate is a low-strikeout guy, but Arraez is such an outlier in today's game that I have to imagine his 7.5% K rate could nudge the close decision.  Look at it the other way, a big strikeout guy seems like someone you'd prefer to have bunt (if he's good at it) to make sure his out is productive.  But I'd want to see statistical evidence about that.

Bottom line, the standard tables are only the starting point.

Anyway.  Yeah.  Bunt. 

Probably.

Maybe.

Yeah.

Rocco makes bad decisions in every game...  The Twins don't bunt. (Do they even have a batting coach?)  And he has "a bunch" of pitchers he sends to the mound for ONE inning, until he runs out of pitchers.  

And, as for the FO - why do we keep picking up cast-offs who, as often as not, aren't even healthy?  

Bring on 2023.  2022 is toast.