3 Twins Trade Targets to Watch

[Schmoeman5]

On 5/24/2022 at 8:33 AM, Trov said:

So you address 3 specific starters, Montas, Kyle Hendricks, I assume, and Nathan Eovaldi as 'ace' types we should target, and you say Joe Ryan is not one.  Basically saying all three would slot ahead of Ryan.  First, why do you rank them all ahead of him at this point?  Is it because Ryan is a rookie and no long term track record?  Also you say Berrios is not an ace, but a guy like him would be needed for the Twins, so going to look at him too.  Maybe you are right that any of those guys would be the best starter. 

Montas, 9 starts, 50.2 innings, ERA 3.55 ERA+ 100, FIP 3.30, WHIP 1.007 9.8K/9

Hendricks, 9 starts 49.2 innings, ERA 4.89 ERA+ 84 FIP 5.52 WHIP 1.329 6.3K/9

Eovaldi, 9 starts 48.1 innings, ERA 4.10 ERA+ 99 FIP 5.51 WHIP 1.159 9.9 K/9

Berrios, 9 starts 47.1 innings, ERA 4.75 ERA+ 80 FIP 4.50 WHIP 1.437 6.7 K/9

Ryan, 8 starts 43.1 innings, ERA 2.28 ERA+ 159 FIP 3.24 WHIP 0.992 8.7 K/9

That is this season stats so far.  I am using them because I want the pitcher they are now, not the pitcher they were before.  Two of the pitchers are on the wrong side of 30 as well, which is when pitcher normally regress, so even if you look at career numbers, I would argue there is no reason to expect that.  However, a quick snapshot of career WAR, I know not best to judge pitchers on but they are being compared to each other.  Montas 6.5 in 5 full season, this being his 6th.  Hendricks, 21.6 in his now 9th season, Eovaldi, 14.6 in his now 10th season.  Berrios, 11.3 in his now 7th season.  Ryan not even a full season is at 1.6, with 1.3 in his 8 starts this year.  

Judge how you will, but at this point I would say Ryan is the best out of all of them.  Slightly less K/9 than Montas and Eovalid, but every other number Ryan is better on.  Will it remain, maybe not.  In terms of innings per start he is right on par with all of them too, but Berrios did have on start that went .1 innings.  Now compared to other starters on our team would Montas be an upgrade, yes he would, but my point is that Ryan is doing just as well as any of the listed trade targets.  Does he have the track record no, but even these guys outside of Hendricks none have a huge track record for a career.  Hendricks though has dropped off his last 2 years being on wrong side of 30.  

I'm not responding to people who either can't or won't read. I don't think ANY OF THOSE GUYS ARE ACES. I said that.  And yes Ryan is NOT AN ACE. The A's promoted Sunny Gray as such when they trotted him out to face Verlander his rookie season. In time maybe. Not right now