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If the Twins are In It to Win It...Trade for these guys now


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We've all heard the Billy Beane 2 months to see what you got, 2 months to align adjustments, 2 months to make the playoffs bit...I'm ready for an early start to fixing little(?) things

Maybe I'm still suffering from T-Wolves melt-down or not quite over the Wild losing their identity because the playoffs started (or did they just don the Wild playoff identity) but how about we proactive this thing and just make some Big League moves now instead of waiting for a presumed better time/deal??

 

Here's a couple ideas birthed from this MLBTR post on 10 Potential Trade Candidates and "consider the source" Jim Bowden TheAthletic post on Trades He'd Like to See (Pay-walled so I'll just list the players he "thinks" will get the trade done) All stats from Baseball Reference

 

TRADE #1 -  1B/DH Josh Bell Washington Nationals (Free Agent at end of the Year so why not Rent for a little longer than a month)

Sure he's been a Streaky Hitter throughout his career but he's Currently trending as follows:

AVG / OBP / SLG / OPS / OPS+

.342 / .434 / .504 / .938    178

K% DOWN 6.9%  (17.8 -> 10.9)

W% UP 0.9%  (11.4 -> 12.3)

Career K% 18.4% - Miggy is 36.4%

Career W% 11.8% - Miggy a respectable 11.7%

Small Sample Size and all here's the last two years of Bell and Sano (I'll let you figure out who's who)

image.png.8244e1769384a1d932f12fbee4edda99.png

And a Career Comparison

image.png.95c38d5a7cd0ee1b0bfa14b07fb7c36e.png

A switch hitter who strikes out half as much with more games played in one less year and pretty near identical production

He may be on a hot streak and is bound to come back to his norms...but that seems to be an alright thing to me

But enough about that what would it take to land Josh Bell?

According to Bowden

Blue Jays acquire 1B/DH Josh Bell from Nationals for

SS/2B Leo Jimenez - #5 Jays prospect according to MLB Pipeline

Age: 20

Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 30 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55 | Overall: 50

RHP Trent Palmer - #23 Jays prospect according to MLB Pipeline

Age: 23

Scouting grades: Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 45 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 45 | Overall: 40

 

What would a Twins comparable offer look like:

Would the Versatility of Spencer Steer (#10), Louie Varland (#15) and Favorite son Matt Wallner (#11) get it done?

Do you consider Noah Miller for a rental? Maybe it's a quick spin of Brayan Medina (from the Padres) or Ronny Henriquez (from the Rangers)??

It's all on where the Nats are in their process...I'd consider Arraez if they want more win next year players (this highly affected by the play of Royce and a lesser extent Miranda)

Feel free to tell me a bunch of teens prospects won't bring back much...but he is a one year rental :)

 

TRADE #2 - Go get Frankie Montas Oakland A's (substitute Luis Castillo if he shows he's healthy in the next few starts if you like)

I won't spend your time (or mine) on any research on this other than to say JUST DO IT!

Here's Bowden's offer from the Rays

Rays acquire RHP Frankie Montas from A’s for

RHP Cole Wilcox - #12 Rays prospect according to MLB Pipeline (Tommy John Recovery)

Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

2B/OF Vidal Bruján - #4 Rays prospect (#75 Overall) according to MLB Pipeline (currently on the MLB roster but has not mastered the Majors)

 

So I'll just jump right in on this one with the longest three-way deal ever completed:

Twins get Montas

Blue Jays get Berrios

A's get Austin Martin (#2 Twins, #50 Overall) and Simeon Woods Richardson (#7 Twins)

Want to keep Richardson then how about Enlow (TJ Recovery) and Canterino

It's gonna take Martin + + for two pennant races of Montas or Castillo so start the calls and get them here for as many starts as possible

Wes's smoke and mirrors has been great to see this season...the sticks might be coming around...injuries will clear up and there's nothing wrong with running away with the division and maybe earn a bye to the 2nd round of the playoffs is the best ticket for Minnesota Sports teams!

 

You know the drill...critique...dismantle...dispute in the comments

 

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I personally would not like either of the trades, even worse if we did both.  I would not mind Bell at all on our team, but for a rental giving up 3 prospects for a guy that could quickly turn to a bad hitter.  As you point out Bell is a streaky guy. If we only had Sano as the option then okay I could see the value, but we have other options to play over Sano, so you really need to compare Bell to the many different options we could put out there.  

In terms of Montez I am not that high on him, and to give up what we got for Berrios or Austin plus 2 pitching prospects, when we have seen how quickly we need as many arms as possible, would be too much for Montez.  I am worried about his home road splits over his career.  He pitches in a great pitchers park, and his splits are very home heavy.  Which means he may not be as good as we think.  This years home road split is even bigger split than over his career.  At least having that extra year of control would be helpful, but no way do we plan to resign him long term so we either play him next year and play out his contract and he walks for nothing, or we look to flip him again ourselves in the off-season or during the season.  I would be willing to take him on, but for the players mentioned I would not want to give that up at this time.

I am not one to give up all your prospects for a single push.  This two trades if we did them would basically strip our minors of any meaningful prospects.  If we swing and miss on a move like this we will be set back for several years.  I respect the decision to push all in for a single ship, but playoffs are so volatile, the best team on paper does not always win.  Giving up 5 to 6 prospects for 2 guys that may have little affect in the playoffs is too big of a risk for my liking.   

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