Leadoff Spot

[ThePuck]

It's possible he loses more than 10 runs of defensive value between the two, but that's stretching it a bit.

 

You mean like...DRS defensive runs saved. -1 in 2011 in CF, 11 in RF. A 12 run difference even though he played like 70 more innings in CF

[ThePuck]

It's my opinion that by moving to a division with tougher pitching his offensive numbers will go down. The fact that it's a smaller park MIGHT also hurt his offensive number because the OF will have less room to cover. I believe he'll lose value as a CF defensively off last year in RF. He'll still be very good defensively, but the people he's now compared to defensively as a lot better than the RFs he was compared to.

[snepp]

You mean like...DRS defensive runs saved. -1 in 2011 in CF, 11 in RF. A 12 run difference even though he played like 70 more innings in CF

 

 

Two small, partial season samples of defensive data, the equivalent of 6 weeks worth of hitting stats.

 

 

There just isn't much to support the idea that he'll become less valuable in center.

[ThePuck]

Two small, partial season samples of defensive data, the equivalent of 6 weeks worth of hitting stats.

 

 

There just isn't much to support the idea that he'll become less valuable in center.

 

 

and how much of a sample size are the stats you're using?

 

Well, I can see there's no convincing you...so I guess we're at an impasse. BTW, you never did tell me what replaced UZR as the defensive metric in Fangraph's WAR calculation.

[Guest USAFChief]

To the best of my knowledge Fangraphs is still using UZR to compute WAR. What is WAR? | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

[ThePuck]

To the best of my knowledge Fangraphs is still using UZR to compute WAR. What is WAR? | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

 

Yeah, I believe that's the link I used earlier

[Guest USAFChief]

Yeah, I believe that's the link I used earlier

I'm sure it's just my inability to pick up your point...but what's your point?

[snepp]

and how much of a sample size are the stats you're using?

 

Historical trends, an enormous sample.

 

 

BTW, you never did tell me what replaced UZR as the defensive metric in Fangraph's WAR calculation.

 

I never said UZR wasn't in FG's WAR. I said UZR/150 played no part, that's what you were using and focusing on.

[ThePuck]

Historical trends, an enormous sample.

 

 

 

 

I never said UZR wasn't in FG's WAR. I said UZR/150 played no part, that's what you were using and focusing on.

 

not Revere's historical trends. We're talking about Revere.

 

As far as the UZR/150 versus UZR thing...that's a technicality, nothing more. The way you dismissed it was as if it didn't matter in the WAR equation when UZR/150 is just a projection for a whole season of UZR, was pure semantics. You wanna play those, that's fine, but it's not helpful in a discussion trying to get to the truth...it's just petty.

 

The point was UZR (I only used UZR/150 for a projection since we're trying to figure out what it might be in the future as a full time center fielder and opposed to full time RF)...and then I showed the UZR actual difference...and you ignored that.

[kab21]

BA is a practically worthless stat. Hicks' career OBP is .379. His career slugging percentage is .421. Compare that to Revere. Career minor league OBP of .383 and SLG of .404. Of course, most of Revere's OBP and SLG is BA. Much of Hick's OBP is BB. His SLG is IsOP. Which would you rather have? I'd take Hicks' numbers in a heart beat. What's the difference between a K and a ground out? A ground out can lead to a DP. It can also advance the runner. Those two things tend to balance each other out.

 

I have not talked about revere at all although others have. I would definitely rather have Hicks. there is absolutely no doubt about that.

 

BA is not a worthless stat. It is the biggest part of both OBP and SLG. Based on his K rate and his okay (but not great) power I see him as a .260's hitter and I think .230's or .240's is likely his rookie season.

 

why does BA continue to be relevant? here is how I come up with my OBP and SLG projections. A 10% BB rate (top 50 in the entire MLB) will give someone about a .075 isoD. OBP = BA + isoD. .260+.075 = .335 OBP. How much power will he hit for? I think he's a .125-.150 isoP hitter. SLG = BA + isoP = .260 + .140 (middle of the range) = .400. that results in an OPS of .735. Knock his BA into the .230's for his first season and he loses 60 pts off of his OPS. I also he'll be in the .100-.120's for isoP this season since it takes awhile for a young player to peak powerwise and that further reduces his OPS into the mid to high .600's. I think there are some people that need to adjust their expectations of Hicks this season and for his career.

[snepp]

not Revere's historical trends. We're talking about Revere.

 

Revere's history is much too small to draw any conclusions. Given that lack of history, and the previously established trends from his peers, which is more likely? That he's an aberration who performs at a ridiculously higher level in the corner, or that he'll perform similarly to other centerfielders who have also played a corner?

 

Sure it's possible he could end up being a +20 run defender in right, while only being a 0 in center, but it's not likely. (figures exaggerated for effect)

 

 

 

As far as the UZR/150 versus UZR thing...that's a technicality, nothing more. The way you dismissed it was as if it didn't matter in the WAR equation when UZR/150 is just a projection for a whole season of UZR, was pure semantics. You wanna play those, that's fine, but it's not helpful in a discussion trying to get to the truth...it's just petty.

 

The point was UZR (I only used UZR/150 for a projection since we're trying to figure out what it might be in the future as a full time center fielder and opposed to full time RF)...and then I showed the UZR actual difference...and you ignored that.

 

It's not a technicality, or playing of semantics, nor is highlighting the enormous problems with a statistic "petty." The projection of UZR/150 in a small sample is completely meaningless. It provided no benefits in this discussion.

 

I also did not ignore the UZR differences, I even cited his UZR runs, they support what I've been saying about the difference between positions and their effects on WAR value.

[ThePuck]

Revere's history is much too small to draw any conclusions. Given that lack of history, and the previously established trends from his peers, which is more likely? That he's an aberration who performs at a ridiculously higher level in the corner, or that he'll perform similarly to other centerfielders who have also played a corner?

 

Sure it's possible he could end up being a +20 run defender in right, while only being a 0 in center, but it's not likely. (figures exaggerated for effect)

 

 

 

 

 

It's not a technicality, or playing of semantics, nor is highlighting the enormous problems with a statistic "petty." The projection of UZR/150 in a small sample is completely meaningless. It provided no benefits in this discussion.

 

I also did not ignore the UZR differences, I even cited his UZR runs, they support what I've been saying about the difference between positions and their effects on WAR value.

 

This is what you said about UZR/150 :'You're getting too hung up on UZR/150 (which isn't used in WAR anyway)'.

 

That's not playing semantics? Obviously I'm talking about UZR, and obviously I only used UZR/150 because we're looking at him being a full time player.

 

Then when I mentioned the actual UZR stat you never refered to that in any response.

[ThePuck]

anyway, this isn't important enough to continue...no minds changed. We'll see how it plays out.

[snepp]

We'll see how it plays out.

 

Unfortunately I don't think we'll see Revere spending enough time in right field to amass much of a sample size for comparison.

[ThePuck]

Unfortunately I don't think we'll see Revere spending enough time in right field to amass much of a sample size for comparison.

 

Well, going back to the original discussion I was having with Brock, it was about what kind of career he may have. The comparison was him to Juan Pierre and it originally centered around the WAR stat. I guess I should have been clearer on what I meant. My bad.