Leadoff Spot

[Brock Beauchamp]

He'll be lucky to have a Juan Pierre type career.

 

Eh, I don't know. His offense may be limited compared to Pierre (which is a pretty ugly thing to say) but his defense is definitely superior to Juan.

 

Pierre had three seasons of 3+ WAR ball early in his career but then didn't have a WAR over 1 for several more. Overall, there isn't much to write home about.

[ThePuck]

Overall, there isn't much to write home about.

 

Like I said...he'll be lucky to have a career like Pierre. Not too high on Revere, personally.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Like I said...he'll be lucky to have a career like Pierre.

 

I don't know... With the move to the NL and positioned as a full-time centerfielder, I think Revere could post several 2-3 WAR seasons before tapering off (he posted a 2.6 WAR primarily in RF last season).

 

It won't take many of those seasons to match Pierre's career WAR. Not an ideal way to compare career arcs but unless Ben gets injured and loses a step before he turns 30, I think he'll do just fine for the Phillies.

[ThePuck]

I don't know... With the move to the NL and positioned as a full-time centerfielder, I think Revere could post several 2-3 WAR seasons before tapering off (he posted a 2.6 WAR primarily in RF last season).

 

It won't take many of those seasons to match Pierre's career WAR. Not an ideal way to compare career arcs but unless Ben gets injured and loses a step before he turns 30, I think he'll do just fine for the Phillies.

 

hope so. Did you see Pierre's WARs up to when he turned 32, 33? heck he had a 2.5 at 32, a 2.0 at 3.1. Had some 4s earlier in his career.

 

If anything, as a CF, I see his WAR going down. His crazy range helped his WAR compared to other RF. He still has crazy range, but not over the top of most CFs like he did in RF

[jokin]

I don't know... With the move to the NL and positioned as a full-time centerfielder, I think Revere could post several 2-3 WAR seasons before tapering off (he posted a 2.6 WAR primarily in RF last season).

 

It won't take many of those seasons to match Pierre's career WAR. Not an ideal way to compare career arcs but unless Ben gets injured and loses a step before he turns 30, I think he'll do just fine for the Phillies.

 

Right, and if Revere had been WAR-rated as a CF instead of a RF, he already would have had WARs at the age of 24 comparable to Pierre's top WAR ratings at the ages of 26 and 27. Now firmly in CF, he should top Pierre's cumulative career WAR totals easily.

[ThePuck]

Right, and if Revere had been WAR-rated as a CF instead of a RF, he already would have had WARs at the age of 24 comparable to Pierre's top WAR ratings at the ages of 26 and 27. Now firmly in CF, he should top Pierre's cumulative career WAR totals easily.

 

except that his range compared to most RFs is what made his defense part of WAR so high. Yes, he still has great range, but now he's being compared to other CFs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

hope so. Did you see Pierre's WARs up to when he turned 32, 33? heck he had a 2.5 at 32, a 2.0 at 3.1. Had some 4s earlier in his career.

 

If anything, as a CF, I see his WAR going down. His crazy range helped his WAR compared to other RF. He still has crazy range, but not over the top of most CFs like he did in RF

 

It's possible but I don't see his WAR dropping as a CF. He's still well above average defensively and his bat won't be such a drag on his WAR in CF.

 

Plus, he's young enough to keep improving for another year or two.

[ThePuck]

His UZR/150 while playing CF in 2011 was 14.7. His UZR/150 in CF last year (in limited time ...like 300 innings...so not much to really judge off of) was in the negatives.

 

His UZR/150 in RF last year was 26.2. That's a significant jump

[ThePuck]

It's possible but I don't see his WAR dropping as a CF. He's still well above average defensively and his bat won't be such a drag on his WAR in CF.

 

Plus, he's young enough to keep improving for another year or two.

 

His WAR, while playing mostly CF in 2011, was 1.7. It was 3.1 last year while mostly playing RF.

[snepp]

except that his range compared to most RFs is what made his defense part of WAR so high. Yes, he still has great range, but now he's being compared to other CFs.

 

Much of what he loses in defensive WAR by being compared to other centerfielders he'll gain back through the positional adjustment.

[ThePuck]

Much of what he loses in defensive WAR by being compared to other centerfielders he'll gain back through the positional adjustment.

 

His WAR, while playing mostly CF in 2011, was 1.7. It was 3.1 last year while mostly playing RF.

[snepp]

His WAR, while playing mostly CF in 2011, was 1.7. It was 3.1 last year while mostly playing RF.

 

And that was due primarily to the differences in his offensive value, as well as a larger quantity of playing time in 2012.

 

The defensive side had little to do with it.

[ThePuck]

And that was due primarily to the differences in his offensive value, as well as a larger quantity of playing time in 2012.

 

The defensive side had little to do with it.

 

I already pointed out the differences on defense with the UZR/150. I'll do it again:

 

His UZR/150 while playing CF in 2011 was 14.7. His UZR/150 in CF last year (in limited time ...like 300 innings...so not much to really judge off of) was in the negatives.

 

His UZR/150 in RF last year was 26.2. That's a significant jump

[Mr. Brooks]

His WAR, while playing mostly CF in 2011, was 1.7. It was 3.1 last year while mostly playing RF.

 

Most of that difference was from batting.

His def+pos in 2011 was 10.4 RAA

His def+pos in 2012 was 11.6 RAA

 

His batting+baserunning in 2011: negative 9.8 RAA

batting +baserunning in 2012: negative 0.6 RAA

 

So he only lost 1.2 RAA defensively, while gaining 9.2 RAA offensively.

[Brock Beauchamp]

His WAR, while playing mostly CF in 2011, was 1.7. It was 3.1 last year while mostly playing RF.

 

Oh, come on... That's kinda lazy, Puck.

 

His OPS+ in 2011 was 72. In 2012, it was 89.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I already pointed out the differences on defense with the UZR/150. I'll do it again:

 

His UZR/150 while playing CF in 2011 was 14.7. His UZR/150 in CF last year (in limited time ...like 300 innings...so not much to really judge off of) was in the negatives.

 

His UZR/150 in RF last year was 26.2. That's a significant jump

 

A shaky metric to use for a single season, much less 300 innings of a season.

[ThePuck]

A shaky metric to use for a single season, much less 300 innings of a season.

 

That's why I wrote what I wrote about 300 innings...but he played over 700 innings in CF in 2011 and about 70 more innings in RF last year

 

But if we're talking shaky Metrics for single seasons, it applies to WAR as well..

[ThePuck]

Oh, come on... That's kinda lazy, Puck.

 

His OPS+ in 2011 was 72. In 2012, it was 89.

 

and the defensive difference?

[Brock Beauchamp]

That's why I wrote what I wrote about 300 innings...but he played over 700 innings in CF in 2011 and about 70 more innings in RF last year

 

Still not even a full season. And the dude is still just 25 years old. And he's gone from playing in a ballpark the size of Jupiter behind an awful pitching staff to playing in a bandbox behind a good staff.

 

I'm not saying it's impossible for his WAR to drop with the Phillies. It absolutely can... I just think it's unlikely given the rest of the elements surrounding him as a player (ballpark, league, pitching staff, improvement toward his prime).

[snepp]

You're getting too hung up on UZR/150 (which isn't used in WAR anyway), it takes the already existing problem of small defensive samples and magnifies them.

 

 

Revere was worth 10 defensive runs in 2011, and worth 15 defensive runs in 2012. The bulk of that difference was made up for by the difference in positional value (4).

 

 

The difference between his offensive value in 2011, and 2012, was 10 runs, that's the bulk of that 3.1 and 1.7 WAR difference.

[ThePuck]

Still not even a full season. And the dude is still just 25 years old. And he's gone from playing in a ballpark the size of Jupiter behind an awful pitching staff to pitching in a bandbox behind a good staff.

 

I'm not saying it's impossible for his WAR to drop with the Phillies. It absolutely can... I just think it's unlikely given the rest of the elements surrounding him as a player (ballpark, league, pitching staff, improvement toward his prime).

 

But quoting WAR for the same amount of time?

 

On top of that, you think a smaller park helps Revere's game? Why would it? He's not gonna be hitting HRs

[ThePuck]

You're getting too hung up on UZR/150 (which isn't used in WAR anyway), it takes the already existing problem of small defensive samples and magnifies them.

 

 

Revere was worth 10 defensive runs in 2011, and worth 15 defensive runs in 2012. The bulk of that difference was made up for by the difference in positional value (4).

 

Which WAR are you using? Fangraphs?

[Brock Beauchamp]

You're getting too hung up on UZR/150 (which isn't used in WAR anyway), it takes the already existing problem of small defensive samples and magnifies them.

 

This. UZR/150 takes a defensive metric, which are pretty random at anything less than a full season (and are best used for multiple seasons) and extrapolates that sketchy data over a larger period of time, magnifying the incomplete data results. It's a pretty bad metric, IMO.

[snepp]

Which WAR are you using? Fangraphs?

 

Yes.

[ThePuck]

This. UZR/150 takes a defensive metric, which are pretty random at anything less than a full season (and are best used for multiple seasons) and extrapolates that sketchy data over a larger period of time, magnifying the incomplete data results. It's a pretty bad metric, IMO.

 

And the same thing can pretty much be said about WAR.

[jokin]

This. UZR/150 takes a defensive metric, which are pretty random at anything less than a full season (and are best used for multiple seasons) and extrapolates that sketchy data over a larger period of time, magnifying the incomplete data results. It's a pretty bad metric, IMO.

 

Petards have been hoisted for less...

[snepp]

This. UZR/150 takes a defensive metric, which are pretty random at anything less than a full season (and are best used for multiple seasons) and extrapolates that sketchy data over a larger period of time, magnifying the incomplete data results. It's a pretty bad metric, IMO.

 

Right, UZR/150 is no different than taking 5 homeruns in 10 games and calling a player an 80 homerun hitter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

But quoting WAR for the same amount of time?

 

On top of that, you think a smaller park helps Revere's game? Why would it? He's not gonna be hitting HRs

 

In one of my first posts, I referred to using WAR in this situation as "not ideal" but at least WAR factors in offensive contribution.

 

The ballpark might not help much but I think it will help him as a CFer... every MLB ballpark has player zones that are virtually unreachable. Citizen's Bank has fewer "unreachable" player zones than Target Field due to its size. There won't be many balls that Revere can't chase down in that ballpark. If Revere was in RF (where there are fewer "unreachable" zones), I might feel differently about it.

 

And then there's the Phillies pitching staff.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And the same thing can pretty much be said about WAR.

 

And, again, I mentioned that using WAR in this situation was not ideal in one of my first posts...

[ThePuck]

okay then, let's go with defensive runs saved. -1 in 2011 in CF, 11 in RF