Article: Looking Back: 2008 Minnesota Twins Draft

[The Wise One]

Dallas Braden was a good find. The fact he had injuries doesnt change that.

To find 4.5 WAR from that round is good value, even if he never plays again.

 

Griffin and Straily have been successful so far, so until they show otherwise, I'll put them in the good value category. If they prove to be flukes, I'll move them out of that category at that time.

We can only go with the information we have now, we cant attempt to predict the future.

 

So I go look up Braden on Fangraphs. No 4.5 WAR anywhere for a season. 7.4 total war for a 4 year career puts him as an average, not exceptional

[The Wise One]

There is still no statistical analysis that would give you a clearcut edge to Oakland's finding pitchers in the later rounds is statitically significant.

[Kwak]

There is still no statistical analysis that would give you a clearcut edge to Oakland's finding pitchers in the later rounds is statitically significant.

 

Maybe it isn't finding better pitchers, maybe the A's are better at developing pitchers? The Twins are legend of adhering to their dogma, and just maybe the A's philosophy of pitching is better? There are other factors than initial selection.

[The Wise One]

Maybe it isn't finding better pitchers, maybe the A's are better at developing pitchers? The Twins are legend of adhering to their dogma, and just maybe the A's philosophy of pitching is better? There are other factors than initial selection.

In the 15 year period Mr Brooks cited they developed 5 lower round pitchers into pitchers that pitched at the major league level. I really don't think you would find a statitacilly significant number in the pitchers Oakland developed in the minor leagues than any other club. In terms of Twin's dogma on pitching, is wanting the Twin's pitchers to be aggressive going after the hitters a bad thing? Billy Beane looks for pitchers that command the strike zone.

[Mr. Brooks]

Are you sure you understand the concept of a use injury. How do you know when the UCL starts to deteriorate and have an effect on the pitching? In Wimmers case please tell me how you would know?

 

Again, I could be wrong on this, it was a while ago, but didnt they get that control problem fixed before the injury?

Like I said, I could be remembering it wrong, but if they did, that would make it hard to blame the control problems on the injury, if he was able to correct them before it was even discovered.

[Mr. Brooks]

So I go look up Braden on Fangraphs. No 4.5 WAR anywhere for a season. 7.4 total war for a 4 year career puts him as an average, not exceptional

 

When in the hell did I ever say he had 4.5 for a season?

4.4 is what his career WAR is on bbr, that is what i was referring to.

And who ever said he was exceptional? The guy was drafted in the late rounds, I'm talking about finding value there, not all stars.

 

Do you think that any compliment paid to another organization is automatically meant to be an insult to the Twins?

[righty8383]

Again, I could be wrong on this, it was a while ago, but didnt they get that control problem fixed before the injury?

Like I said, I could be remembering it wrong, but if they did, that would make it hard to blame the control problems on the injury, if he was able to correct them before it was even discovered.

 

Your memory is correct. He fixed his control problems and pitched fine in the 2nd half of 2011. His last start of the season was a (7 inning) no hitter. So I agree that his control issues were not related to his future elbow injury.

[Kwak]

In the 15 year period Mr Brooks cited they developed 5 lower round pitchers into pitchers that pitched at the major league level. I really don't think you would find a statitacilly significant number in the pitchers Oakland developed in the minor leagues than any other club. In terms of Twin's dogma on pitching, is wanting the Twin's pitchers to be aggressive going after the hitters a bad thing? Billy Beane looks for pitchers that command the strike zone.

 

"Command the strike zone" can be interpreted two ways--1) consistently placing the ball on the fringe of the zone, but avoiding the middle of the zone; or 2) pounding the strikezone incessently such that it is rarely missed, accepting the inevitable that there will be many pitches left in the middle of the strike zone. Since the Twins have made a religion of limiting walks it is clear the Twins use definition 2). That strategy isn't working.

[diehardtwinsfan]

"Command the strike zone" can be interpreted two ways--1) consistently placing the ball on the fringe of the zone, but avoiding the middle of the zone; or 2) pounding the strikezone incessently such that it is rarely missed, accepting the inevitable that there will be many pitches left in the middle of the strike zone. Since the Twins have made a religion of limiting walks it is clear the Twins use definition 2). That strategy isn't working.

 

Actually, you missed a key point in both models, namely the ability to expand the zone. Pitchers who can hit their spots can also confidently throw pitches just out side the zone, which will force a lot of hitters to swing and make weak contact and occasionally get umps to expand the zone with them as well.

 

My problem with the Twins' philosophy on pitching isn't the limiting walks concept (because that does correlate to runs saved), but the refusal to allow for strategic balls and the undervaluing of a strike out. Carl Pavano is one that comes to mind on this. He could hit his spots well, but I never saw him expand the zone. Good hitters approached him by swinging at everything he offered... at that point, he should have been throwing stuff off the plate...