Friday's Twins Game Could Determine the A.L. MVP

[Nash Walker]

The Twins will host Cleveland for a pivotal three-game series this weekend at Target Field. Friday’s game specifically could have a big impact on the A.L. MVP race.Starting pitchers have had a hard time winning MVP; only 25 have won the award since 1931. It sure feels like No. 26 will be crowned in 2020.

 

Cleveland starter Shane Bieber is on his way to the triple crown, leading the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts. He’s been untouchable, posting an insane 1.25 ERA and 94 strikeouts in his first 57 ⅔ innings. The Cy Young award is all but locked up for the Beebs, but is the MVP?

 

This shortened season has seen more than a handful of players thrive. The White Sox have a legitimate candidate in 2019 breakout Tim Anderson, who ranks fourth in the A.L. in fWAR (1.9).

 

Anderson’s teammate José Abreu is lighting it up too, hitting .311/.355/.599 with 13 homers in 43 games.

 

Anthony Rendon, after missing the start of the year, has emerged with a league-leading 2.3 fWAR.

 

Oh, and don’t forget about Mike Trout, who finds himself near but not on top of most statistical categories with a few weeks to go. I wouldn’t put a world-beating final stretch past him.

 

But…

 

Nelson Cruz trumps all offensive foes.

 

The 40-year-old Cruz leads MLB in wOBA (.459), wRC+ (193), and OPS (1.117). He’s produced 19.9 fWAR offensively, the most in the A.L.

 

Cruz is hitting a nutty .343/.432/.685 with 15 home runs, tied with Mike Trout and Fernando Tatís Jr. for the most in baseball.

 

Tom Verducci recently told Pat Reusse that “everything seems to be about WAR now with a majority of the [MVP] voters, and with a DH getting zero help from defense with WAR … I don’t know how it’s going to happen.”

 

Cruz’s 2.2 fWAR ranks second behind only Rendon, who is hitting at a 30% lesser clip by wRC+. Cruz also ranks third in bWAR (1.9) behind Abreu and rookie Luis Robert.

 

It’s true that even with how amazing Cruz has been in 2020, a primary DH has never won MVP.

 

This isn’t your typical great season from a DH, though. This just might be the year where it could make sense. Nelson Cruz is hitting better than any DH in baseball history.

 

 

Yes, it’s only been 45 games. Simple sample size rules will tell us we can’t compare him to 162-game season players. That’s fair. Let’s look at the best DH starts to a season, sorted by OPS after 45 team games, as many as the Twins have played.

 

 

Somehow, 2020 Nelly has been more productive than 2019 Nelly at this point.

 

With only 15 games to go, it isn’t crazy to think Cruz’s numbers won’t totally free fall from their towering heights. 75% of his stats are locked in. He’s in winning position with the all-mighty Bieber standing his way.

 

The two will face off Friday night. Who will make their statement?

 

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[John Kelsey]

I think it has to be Bieber at this point. Weird year for hitters in the AL with the best candidates being a DH and two Angels players.

 

Maybe throw in Tim Anderson if he can get hot at the end but he's pretty short on PAs. 

[theBOMisthebomb]

Biebs is Cruz-in' for a bruisin' from Nellie.

[Channing1964]

I guess i just always thought that the Cy Young is for most valuable pitchers. MVP should be for the hitters. I know there are crazy years that it has happened for a pitcher, but not this year.

[h2oface]

Bieber crushed us on July 30 and pitched 8 innings of 3 hit shutout ball with 13 Ks, and beat Berrios, who pitched 5 and only gave up a 2 run homer (and Littell andThorpe actually pitched 2 innings each and didn't give up a single run! amazing!)

 

We had Bieber beat that last game on August 25. He was behind 2-1 when he pitched his last pitch of the game and left the mound after the top of the 6th. Alcala came in and wasted Hill's perhaps best outing and gave up a single, homer, walk and a double, and gives Bieber the 4-2 victory and snatches it away from Hill. Poppen even pitched 2 innings of shutout ball to close the game. 4 hits and 10 Ks.... 

 

If Maeda is sharp, and someone in the bullpen doesn't flail, we could take this game.

 

A DH and pitcher square off in the MVP sprint, and so far.... Cruz is 0-6 with 2 ground outs and a fly out the first game, and 3 swinging strikeouts the second game.