Front Page: Handbook Preview: Matthew Trueblood on Shunning The Shift

[John Bonnes]

Pitching will be an especially important subject for the Twins this offseason. So we’re especially excited that Matthew Trueblood, known for his analysis surrounding pitching at Baseball Prospectus, will be joining our guest writer ranks this year. His meaty essay in the 2020 Offseason Handbook takes a look at a defensive aspect that was mostly overlooked as the season progressed: the Twins' decreasing use of the shift.Here's a taste:

Shifting is not a universal good; it must be implemented thoughtfully and effectively. Still, the high-level evidence suggests the Twins were better when they deployed shifts more often.

 

Download attachment: Trueblood offseason 2019-10-22.JPG

 

In August, only the Pirates allowed a higher BABIP than did the Twins. In September, only the Tigers and Cubs did. In analysis of individual pitchers, BABIP is often treated as an indicator of luck, but at the team level, it speaks to the quality of the defense. Minnesota’s was, down the stretch, one of the worst in baseball.

 

Not only does Trueblood breakdown the impacts of decreasing the frequency of the shift, he breaks down the impact and the variation behind each individual starting pitcher. And since this is an offseason-focused publication, he looks at the free agent starting pitchers they Twins might acquire and their history (and in some cases, criticism) of using the shift.

 

It’s all done so you can come up with your own offseason blueprint and see how it compares to that of the Twins brain trust. Secure your digital copy now, and you'll get it before it's officially available to the public (ETA is around the conclusion of the World Series). You can name your price but the minimum for preorders is $10. You can only get it early if you preorder, so grab yours now!

 

Click here to view the article

[strumdatjaguar]

Luiz Arraez, The Sprinkler, and apparently Alex Kiriloff are solutions to the shift. Learn to hit to all fields. Left-handed hitters should bunt to third base.

[h2oface]

I don't buy it. The pitching was worse, in general, as the season went on. And often times, I remember other teams getting hits into the shift...... how is that identified in the stats kept. What did Mark Twain say?

[mikelink45]

Versions of the shift have been around since baseball began, but overuse of anything is dangerous.  Good players adjust, good teams adjust.  Selective use is the best way to be effective.  

 

In the past fields slid around depending upon the pitcher and how batters would hit them, now we go to arbitrary use and it just makes be delighted to see Arraez come to bat.  

One of my favorite plays in the ALCS was catcher Maldonado laying down a bunt for a hit!