Fun With WPA: Marwin Over Schoop

[Tom Froemming]

Marwin Gonzalez got a gift two-run single yesterday against Baltimore, resulting in him leading the batters in WPA on the day. I don't often take a look at the year-to-date totals for WPA, but I was curious this morning.

 

While Marwin has been the Twins' worst hitter, he's not actually the worst in terms of WPA. That would be Jonathan Schoop, who is in fact the 18th-worst hitter in terms of WPA this season among the 189 qualified hitters.

 

How is that possible? Per Baseball-Reference, Schoop has a .347 OPS in high leverage, .406 OPS in medium leverage and a 1.177 OPS in low leverage situations. Meanwhile, Marwin has a 1.200 OPS in high leverage along with a poor .384 OPS in medium leverage and .428 OPS in low leverage situations.

 

It's worth mentioning that WPA tells you what has happened much better than it predicts what is to come. Marwin has actually been better in low leverage situations over his career while Schoop has been pretty even across the board, so I'd expect both of these guys to even out as the year progresses.

 

Just a fun observation I though I'd pass along. It's not really easy to find silver linings in terms of Gonzalez's start with the Twins, but he's been good in the clutch and there's nothing wrong with the defense he's provided at third base

[stringer bell]

This validates what I have seen from Schoop so far. His contribution has been pretty inconsequential. He's hit in games where the Twins won big. It also shows how early in the season we are. I think that in time the quirks in these stats will be ironed out. The guy will the +.800 OPS is pretty likely to help the team more than the guy with an OPS barely above .500.

[Thrylos]

Of course Marwin wins in win probability added.

[ashbury]

You can't spell MaRWIn without RBI, if you change the B to a W.