St. Louis Cardinal player turnover versus the Twins this century

[thetank2]

I'm a Cardinal fan since the early 70's and am happy that the last Busch son sold the team before the 1996 season. The Cards road the McGwire bandwagon too long until acquiring 5 starting pitchers in 2000. They've averaged ~91 games a year this century and the 3 times the hapless Cubs won the division titles with less than 90 wins in the 2000 the Cards bullpen broke down in 2003 or in 2007 and 2008 the model broke down with aging players and depleted minor leaguers but still won 86 games in 2008. The Cards would even be better, but, their extra inning record is 45% since 2000.

 

The Cards success has to be how it manages position turnover except for the 2 Golden Glove catchers, Matheny and Molina. 8 different opening day 1st baseman, 9 different 2nd baseman, 7 different 3rd base mans, 10 different Shorstops and many different OFers as well as the changing 5 starting pitchers. The closers sucked for the most part until the current closer Rosenthal. Saw starters like Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse miss all of parts of seasons come back with good records. The 1st model was to trade minor leaguers for established or upcoming players such as Edmonds or rehab projects like Chris Carpenter and then later develop within which worked until 2007; the 2nd model was to develop within with good drafts, young player development and to trade if the opportunity was there. Better to trade a player a year early than a year too late.

 

One other thing is the Cards have not signed a bad long-term contract. They got lucky when they were able to trade a disgruntled Scott Rolen and his 3 year contract for Troy Glaus 2 year contract with Glaus having a very good first year and a injured second year. Lucky Pujols contract that kept him in St. Louis was a bargain and thankfully they don't owe him a $140 million over the next 6 years. Same goes for 1 HR Heyward of the Cubs who's WAR is warped by the few balls he gets too in a year that other OFers don't get to. If he could drive in runs a manager would make sure he would put him in the right spot of the lineup to do so. BTW, the only significant free agent the Cards should have re-signed which they didn't in their history was Terry Pendleton.

 

The Twins in this century may have won 6 division titles, but, have lost 19 out of 22 playoff games. Wish you could have beaten the hated Yanks and Red Sox in the playoffs. It is the weakest division in baseball and when you had the horrible Tigers and Royals early on and the spotty White Sox winning 6 titles wouldn't have happened in other divisions. Not sure what the model is. What seemed to work is a productive core of players which is lacking. If you think that Dozier is a top player hitting below .250 you are mediocre. Mauer's contract since he no longer catches is a disaster.

 

I remember how gaga about signing Phil Hughes who will have a good season and then a so-so. Pitchers who don't strikeout enough batters per nine are like that. I knew Nolasco would have arm problems and if you signed Garza ditto. Now that Perkins is injured the bullpen will have to be rebuilt. Where has the minor league been and the draft? The Royals model with 10 teams making the playoff allowing anyone to win it all I believe was get to the 7th and have 3 very good relievers as well as get lucky. The Red Sox can go last to first then last which sucks for the fans or the mediocre Giants ride a hot starter and luck to 3 WS championships after winning only 1 in the prior 70 years and be below .500 in between. Luck and watered down playoff system.

 

This 10 team in the post season should provide hope with the right player moves, farm system and the necessary turnover.

[Badsmerf]

I thought you were going to compare something?

[thetank2]

I thought you were going to compare something?

I probably should have said this is the Cardinals model and I don't know what the Twins model is exactly. I showed how that a team can rebuild on the fly with the turnover while maintaining a good record if the plans are executed along with some good fortune. You don't average 20 games over .500 over 16 years with the midsize market without a good organization.

 

When the Twins had a productive Mauer and Morneau and a decent sporting cast they could win 90 games.

[jorgenswest]

Nice article.

 

The Cardinals model works because of the a highly skilled staff throughout the system. The model doesn't matter of you don't have the people to execute it.

[Thrylos]

The Cardinals' success started when Professor La Russa left the doping A's went to the Cardinals and brought some of his PED crowd along. 

 

PEDs made the Cardinals respectable again.

 

Nice blueprint.

[thetank2]

Actually, Larussa who was hired by the previous owners and the Cards were mediocre except being lucky to win 88 in 1996 and losing after being up 3-1 games to the Braves in the NLCS. The next 3 years were mediocre with McGwire the only known steroid user of the A's coming over in Aug. 1997. Then trades for Edmonds, Rolen, Renteria and starting pitching using young players as trade bait and convincing pending free agents to stay along with one 21 year old (wild rumors that he was actually older) rookie named Pujols and the team became good. Thankfully after winning 205 games in 2004-2005 the injured players became healthy to win the 2006 World Series before model stopped working and GM was fired.

 

The new model was to rebuild the farm system to fill needs and depth using analytics and depth. Lucky no bad contracts where you have to eat or survive multi million dollars. Piscotty who was hitting .335 as of yesterday is in his first full season and starting pitcher Michael Wacha were taken in supplemental draft with Pujols leaving which several clubs passed over them in the draft. The Cards this year need to go on a hot streak to win 90 thanks to some starting pitching problems.

 

How good is the Twins minor league system especially pitching? Sano and Buxton aren't making the impact yet by now.