Ft. Myer's Pitching

[Ncgo4]

Gonsalves had another strong outing. 6 IP, 1 ER & ERA now below 1.5. Tonight Stewart takes the mound. Another good start for him and the talk about moving them both up a level will increase. I still wouldn't expect that for a while though. June sound possible?

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, you got to be wary of SSS situations.  A move up to AA means someone is going on the DL, getting promoted, or getting cut.  The Twins will definitely be a bit patient there unless injury forces it (and they should be), though with all the promotions out of Rochester, I suspect someone from AA moves up at some point soon, at which point one of these guys can make it up.

[clutterheart]

 

yeah, you got to be wary of SSS situations.  A move up to AA means someone is going on the DL, getting promoted, or getting cut.  The Twins will definitely be a bit patient there unless injury forces it (and they should be), though with all the promotions out of Rochester, I suspect someone from AA moves up at some point soon, at which point one of these guys can make it up.

 

There is no pitching prospect in AA or AAA who should be blocking these guys development.  All of the starting pitchers at AA look to be filler at t his point and the guys in AAA are bullpen candidates.  When the scouts say the FM pitchers are ready, they should move up.  

[Thrylos]

 

There is no pitching prospect in AA or AAA who should be blocking these guys development.  All of the starting pitchers at AA look to be filler at t his point and the guys in AAA are bullpen candidates.  When the scouts say the FM pitchers are ready, they should move up.  

 

Hold it for a sec  

Check out what Wheeler has done at AA and AAA this season.  He has been pitching better than any of those guys at higher levels.  Ditto for Berrios, Duffey and Meyer, two of which will go to AAA when Santana and Gibson return.   Andrew Albers, Omar Bencomo and David Martinez are disposable, but 2 more coming down.

 

Part of the problem here is that Ryan did not trade any prospects this off-season, so there is a log jam

[Seth Stohs]

 

Hold it for a sec

Check out what Wheeler has done at AA and AAA this season.  He has been pitching better than any of those guys at higher levels.  Ditto for Berrios, Duffey and Meyer, two of which will go to AAA when Santana and Gibson return.   Andrew Albers, Omar Bencomo and David Martinez are disposable, but 2 more coming down.

 

Part of the problem here is that Ryan did not trade any prospects this off-season, so there is a log jam

 

Log Jam = Depth = Good for the Organization.

 

I think that Gonsalves and Stewart will be moved up when they are deemed ready (as opposed to when there is an opening). 

 

And, Wheeler has been incredible this year, even in AAA where he really struggled last year. It's really good to see. 

[Thrylos]

 

Log Jam = Depth = Good for the Organization.

 

Unless the depth is starting to leave as minor league free agents (eg. Danny Ortiz, Yangervis Solarte etc.) without getting anything in return, or even figuring out what you have, and having to bring in scrubs (eg. Darin Mastroianni, David Murphy, Andrew Albers) to replace them.

 

The fact that the Twins are signing scrubs every post-season (look at the Rochester Roster) means that according to them, they do not have enough "depth".

[FormerMinnasotan]

Or the Twins promote the wrong pitchers. For example Ryan Eades has no business being in AA over Gonsalves and Stewart. Eades career ERA is 4.40ish, how is that better than Gonsalves or Stewart? Gonsalves and Stewart have a future with the Twins, Eades (who was drafted same year as Stewart and Gonsalves) is nothing more than an organizational arm.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Or the Twins promote the wrong pitchers. For example Ryan Eades has no business being in AA over Gonsalves and Stewart. Eades career ERA is 4.40ish, how is that better than Gonsalves or Stewart? Gonsalves and Stewart have a future with the Twins, Eades (who was drafted same year as Stewart and Gonsalves) is nothing more than an organizational arm.

 

While at the same time, Ryan Eades has no business being back in Ft. Myers after a strong 2015 season there. 

 

And, I am certain they don't think of a 2nd round pick just a couple of years ago as just an "organizational arm." 

[FormerMinnasotan]

While at the same time, Ryan Eades has no business being back in Ft. Myers after a strong 2015 season there.

 

And, I am certain they don't think of a 2nd round pick just a couple of years ago as just an "organizational arm."

I get it, but in short Gonsalves and Stewart are far better than Eades. Eades had a 3.11 ERA in 20 starts in Ft Meyers last season, in 20 starts Gonsalves has an ERA around 2. Just saying Gonsalves for sure should already be in AA.

[Steve Lein]

 

Log Jam = Depth = Good for the Organization.

 

I think that Gonsalves and Stewart will be moved up when they are deemed ready (as opposed to when there is an opening). 

 

And, Wheeler has been incredible this year, even in AAA where he really struggled last year. It's really good to see. 

 

I think there's a point where this idea is detrimental to an organization at the top, and I think the Twins are at that point. I even thought they were at that point last year with SP's, and they added such problems to other positions (3B, 1B, DH, OF) this offseason without clearing necessary room anywhere.

 

I know you'll need 8+ starting pitchers over the course of a year, but lets look at who the Twins have:

 

1. Ervin Santana (signed through 2018)

2. Phil Hughes (signed through 2019)

3. Kyle Gibson (controlled through 2020)

4. Tommy Milone (controlled through 2019)

5. Ricky Nolasco (signed through 2018)

 

and even:

 

6. Trevor May (controlled through 2021)

 

And then you have the young guys ready for the MLB now:

 

7. Berrios

8. Duffey

9. Meyer

 

I would argue all three of the young guys are better options than three of the other top five and have only gotten there now because of the run of injuries, and a few of them will be shipped back out because of that as well. Add in that all the rest of those five are going to be around for the rest of this season and two more, and I don't think that is putting your best team out on the field.

 

Then, when you keep looking into the future at 2017, 2018, and 2019, and start talking more about guys like Gonsalves and Stewart, guess what? They're potentially going to need a spot in the rotation before all those guys' contracts are up too.

 

Yes, depth is good, but you don't need this type of young talent as "depth," it needs to be part of the solution. 

 

You have to cash in some assets at some point to finish a rebuild and turnaround. This needs to be the year that happens so this problem doesn't continue. Whether that's trading a few of the first five, or some of the prospects, who knows, but it is something that needs to be resolved.

[Seth Stohs]

Tommy Milone was already moved to the bullpen. Nolasco is still a question mark but may be pitching himself into being a trade candidate for something.

 

Gibson, Santana, Hughes are big league pitches, and that's not a bad thing. Berrios isnt being held back. Duffey hasn't been held back by others (by himself, yes). Meyer has a lot to prove. 

 

Depth of MLB quality starters is always a good thing. If it means some tough decisions, no harm in that because, as you said, you need 8+ starters already. 

 

Gonsalves/Stewart/Jay types of prospects aren't going to be held bad. 

 

Every organization has the organizational players and they're important as place-holders but also to help those teams win games while waiting for the prospects. Andrew Albers isn't holding anyone back. He was just signed because of the Twins taking 3 of the Red Wings starters. Aside from Wheeler, none of the other AA pitchers are going to AAA right now. They have to fill rosters. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Unless the depth is starting to leave as minor league free agents (eg. Danny Ortiz, Yangervis Solarte etc.) without getting anything in return, or even figuring out what you have, and having to bring in scrubs (eg. Darin Mastroianni, David Murphy, Andrew Albers) to replace them.

 

The fact that the Twins are signing scrubs every post-season (look at the Rochester Roster) means that according to them, they do not have enough "depth".

 

I'm sure the Twins are the only team to use minor league FAs to fill out their AAA rosters.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I get it, but in short Gonsalves and Stewart are far better than Eades. Eades had a 3.11 ERA in 20 starts in Ft Meyers last season, in 20 starts Gonsalves has an ERA around 2. Just saying Gonsalves for sure should already be in AA.

 

Stewart spent all of 2015 in Ft Meyers and wasn't as good as Eades was in 2015.  Gonsalves got a mid year promotion there and took some bumps. 

 

Sorry, but Eades does deserve that shot in AA, and he deserves more than 5 starts to figure it out, even if Stewart/Gonsalves are better prospects.  That's how these things works.  If the Twins (or any team for that matter) operated with this type of patience, there would be a lot more "one who got away" stories out there than what there are. 

 

Like it or not, this is how things work, not just in baseball, but our careers as well.  Promotions often come with opportunity, and rarely does someone get new responsibilities taken away after a month on the new job. 

 

If Stewart and Gonsalves keep doing what they are doing, they will get the bump.  Just be patient. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/minor-league-run-environments/

 

Take the numbers with a grain of salt. (Older article, but others are out there.)

 

 

This years leaderboard of qualified starters (20 innings pitched, so Jay and others fall just short.) There are 47 starters who quality, all but nine have an ERA under 4.00, and two of those nine have and ERA of under 4.10.  Twenty-seven of those pitchers have an ERA under 3.00. Sixteen of those pitchers have an ERA under 2.00. Twins Prospect Keeten Steele shares the median ERA at 2.66, so he is "league average" for qualified starters. Stewart has the fifteenth best ERA in the league, although his metrics are for real and has the fifth best FIP and has a good K%. So, just so we all are able to process what this does and does not mean for these dudes. Like someone mentioned...Eades was good there even.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=10&qual=y&type=0&season=2016&team=0&players=0&sort=5%2ca