Article: Beating PECOTA: Three Sources of More Twins Wins

[diehardtwinsfan]

Has anyone ever gone and looked at PECOTA in terms of it's accuracy?  I'd really like to know how often the system gets it right vs. wrong.

[gunnarthor]

 

Has anyone ever gone and looked at PECOTA in terms of it's accuracy?  I'd really like to know how often the system gets it right vs. wrong.

On wins, it's off, on average of 6-7 wins per year.  Sometimes more.  Supporters argue that 6 or 7 wins is as close as you can get on a projection system.  I think that's a heck of cop out - basically a projected 81-81 record would be "correct" if the team won anywhere between 75 and 87 games.  The second issue - projected final standings, I'm not sure about.  Most people focus on the record.  When I've looked at the projected standings, they are right around a third of the time but I'm not sure if that's an accurate representation of PECOTA.  As mentioned above, last year they were 0-15 on projected standings in the AL.

[tobi0040]

 

On wins, it's off, on average of 6-7 wins per year.  Sometimes more.  Supporters argue that 6 or 7 wins is as close as you can get on a projection system.  I think that's a heck of cop out - basically a projected 81-81 record would be "correct" if the team won anywhere between 75 and 87 games.  The second issue - projected final standings, I'm not sure about.  Most people focus on the record.  When I've looked at the projected standings, they are right around a third of the time but I'm not sure if that's an accurate representation of PECOTA.  As mentioned above, last year they were 0-15 on projected standings in the AL.

 

Especially since baseball is not a sport where the better team wins almost every game.  The 2004 Tigers have the worst record in years and still won 26% of their games.

 

The 2012 Bobcats went 7-59.  The 76ers were close this year.  The 2008 Lions were winless.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

When I've looked at the projected standings, they are right around a third of the time but I'm not sure if that's an accurate representation of PECOTA.  As mentioned above, last year they were 0-15 on projected standings in the AL.

They were nearly as bad the previous year as well. I just looked it up and PECOTA badly missed the AL in 2014, hitting on only three teams, all in the ALC (DET, CWS, MIN). They missed on the other 12 teams.

 

Though they faired much better in the NL that year.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

Though they faired much better in the NL that year.

Maybe the obvious inferiority of the NL makes the projection system better?