Duffey to stay in Rotation, May to bullpen

[Rosterman]

 

They are at least 9 deep this year - with Hughes, Nolasco, Meyer, and May not starting.  No one would have predicted Gibson, Santana, Pelfrey, Duffy, and Milone as of mid-August.  They will want 9 next year as well. So if you are casting off Pelfrey and finding someone to take Nolasco's contract (good luck with that) and keeping May in the bullpen and Meyer not dependable or ready, we have 5 starters (Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Milone and Duffy) plus Berrios.  Who are #7, #8 and #9? (well, technically, since Meyer didn't really pitch, we're 8 deep, but the point remains the same)....

Suddenbly you are looking at Stewart, Rogers (if he resigns) and Gonzalves as the next guys in the wings. Possibly Pat Dean and maybe Alex Wimmers will find his grove. There is always a surpirse candidate (Baxendale). And Meyer may come back as a starter. Just don't spend money on a Tim Stauffer-like guy who MIGHT start or relieve.

[jimbo92107]

 

I have been pleased with Duffey's last two starts, but realize he could a Gibson-like pitcher, of great game and then gets shelled. Liking the results right now though. One thing I am concerned about though, is his velocity in his three starts. I don't even mean I am concerned in his below aver velocity, as a Twins fan I'd expect nothing less.

 

What I am concearned about is that his velocity has declined significantly in all 3 of his starts. He want from sitting roughly 92, 91, to under 90mph. Yes, the results have been there with the declining velocity, but the worry comes in the form of fatigue and or hidden injury. Velocity is a proven indicator of future DL stints, so I am interested to see where he sits in his next outing, and whether has an underlying issue that is about to explode in the form of TJ surgery. 

 

Oh, and his curveball might look good, but overall it has gotten him a negative value so far. The only pitch he's had a positive value with overall so far is his fastball. Now, in his second start both the curve and the change he had incredibly high value outcomes with, but he had negative values with the curve in the first and last starts. I do like the "looks" of his curveball though, and think it could be good if Suzuki calls for at the right time and in the right spots. 

An oversimplified metric fails to acknowledge the way Tyler Duffey uses his remarkable curve ball. "...his curveball might look good" is exactly the point. Duffey is getting consistent whiffs on his curve because its trajectory starts right down the middle, just like his modest heater. But then, as it gets about fifteen feet from the plate, it breaks down and left sharply. Very few major league hitters can compensate for a break that sharp.

 

The problem with the metric is that Duffey is bouncing his curve a foot behind home plate on purpose, not because he lacks control. The bend is so severe that he induces ridiculous swings that miss by an average of six inches. If you can do that without throwing a called strike, why would you ever spot the ball in the zone? We have seen Duffey bounce his curve three or four times in one at-bat. Even guys that manage to check their swing or foul off one or two usually can't keep it up for as long as Duffey can, and that's the beauty of his curve. Not only are hitters hard pressed to make contact, but it also sets them up for Duffey's modest fastball, which he mixes in and spots around the periphery.

 

Here's the other thing: Duffey and Suzuki can tell if a guy is trying to adjust by holding up or resorting to a golf swing. When the golf swing comes out, here comes a fastball up. When the guy starts hesitating looking for the curve, suddenly 90mph blows right past him. I'm guessing that Duffey is perfectly capable of muscling up his fastball to 93 or 94, but there's no need. He'd rather throw a really precise heater at 90, mixed in with his other stuff.

 

Command is the word most would use to differentiate Duffey's curve from others. Mastery is more apt. Duffey has such total confidence in his bender (Bender, nickname??), he is completely comfortable using it in any situation, including count 3-2, game on the line situations, where 9 of 10 pitchers will go with the trusty heater, and hitters know it. With Duffey, they literally have no clue what's coming, but they won't like it. Bouncer? Fastball in a corner? Back door breaking ball? Two-seamer fading away? Change-up? I've even seen him throw his curve deliberately high to a lefty, because the hitter hesitates, no-way man, before oh-drears, it's gonna be a strike. Whiff.

 

Now for what will sound like hype, but it's not. Duffey's curve has been compared to Kershaw's and Greinke's because of the rpm's, which sit around 1600. Given the versatility and mastery Duffey shows with his curve, I'd say his breaker is better than Kershaw's or Grenke's, both of whom use the curve as an alternate to a blazing fastball, where Duffey uses it as his foundation pitch that everything else depends on. If the two Cy Young winners don't have a feel for their curve, they can get by with other stuff for awhile. It's hard to imagine Duffey not controlling his curve, except his very first appearance against Toronto, where he simply forgot how to pitch.