DocBauer's Prescription for the 2015 Twins

[DocBauer]

To me, the approach to 2015 is simply and yet complex. On the one hand, the Twins are still in rebuild mode with a lot of talented youngsters arriving to a ballpark near you soon. And these prospects are the future of the team.

 

But after the past four disappointing seasons, the Twins also have to spark additional fan interest in the team to keep the turnstiles turning, the beer flowing, and the merchandise being bagged. So there has to be a balance of promoting, playing and developing the youngsters, while also putting a quality, competitive, and hopefully winning product on the field. All the while, not blowing budgets or financial flexibility for the rebuild, or getting too lost in quick fix options that could disappoint and strap or limit the club.

 

Let's tackle the elephant in the room, the rotation. Call me an optimist, but I am a big believer in Hughes and Gibson both. I truly don't think it's beyond reasonable that a slightly more experienced, confident and consistent Gibson could emerge as out #2 SP next season. Nolasco has been a model of consistency most all his career, looked mostly good after getting healthy and getting his legs under him to close the season, and is truly guilty ONLY of getting hurt his first year under contract. Should he do nothing but hit his career norms/averages, he'd be a solid #3-4 SP for us in 2015. I am also a fan and believer in May. He has an awful lot going for him and really started to improve after initial bumps. I think he's a given at this point.  I soooo want to just roll the dice with Meyer in the #5 spot. But it's just not prudent to do so. Refer again to the above comments of a team rebuilding, but also needing to improve and regain the fan interest.  It's just not smart to enter the season with 2 rookies and a second year player penciled in to your rotation when you're  climbing that mountain. (and for all intent and purpose, Gibson is a second year player) Plus, guys get hurt, and best laid plans and all that stuff.......

 

I sign Masterson. I don't know for him, or us, if the best deal is a 1 year make good, or 1 year with option, or a multi year. There are arguments both ways for both parties. I'm betting on the 1 year for $7-8M. If he checks out OK physically.  Healthy and at 2011 and 2013 form, he's fighting Gibson for #2SP on staff.

 

(caveat: I have been brought over from the dark side and now am considering the signing of Brett Anderson, LHSP. I absolutely would not make him a prime signing. I don't care how hard he throws, or SO potential, or career 3-1 SO/BB numbers. If you are always injured and can't be on the mound, then you are always injured and can't be on the mound. It's not fair,but it's reality. But on a milb deal with ML roster money and incentives available, yes, I'm all in as additional and smart signing. But only along WITH the Masterson signing. Am I providing a potential logjam? Not necessarily)

 

Bullpen:

 

I have struggled with help here vs open auditions from a AAA logjam to up and comers who may arrive at some point this season. My final decision, as GM, and balancing immediate need vs the future is to keep Fien, who has been great, but wore down late last season, and supplement him with a veteran for 1 year on anything from a $1.5-3M deal. I'm copping out on a name here simply because the list of possibilities is so great, it's hard to narrow it down to just the one guy to bring in. Plus, as we all know, the reliever FA market tends to be very volatile.

 

Perkins is the closer, naturally. Fien and my FA help hold down the 7th & 8th inning. I'm auditioning Tonkin, Oliveros, Achter and Pressley in ST for the possibility of 2 spots, probably one. And I am penciling Meyer in to the pen as well. I'm really not big on the "starter in the bullpen to begin with" idea generally. But I think with the above moves, we've deepened the entire staff and allow Meyer some transition time.

 

From the left side, I stick with the young Thielbar. I love the potential of Darnell as a LHRP who can throw hard and get me SO's. But he's a rookie. And I don't know that I can justify keeping both Milone and Duensing. Release or trade, one of them is gone.

 

Catcher:

 

Suzuki and Pinto. Enough said. If I could meld them together, I might have the best catcher in all of baseball. Pinto has the arm, and has proven it in the past. Somehow, someway, he got messed up. Here's hoping the new regime can get his footwork and confidence back. He can hit, and has power and an OK eye. Suzuki knows how to call a game, is solid behind the plate and can hit with doubles power. Ideally, Pinto slowly grabs more and more time behind the plate.

 

 

 

Infield:

 

Pretty much the same. Shame on you for doubting Mauer. No newborns, no pressure of the new position, NO CONCUSSION SYNDROME TO DEAL WITH and able to work out offseason like he needs and wants to...pick your reason/excuse....Mauer is Mauer again. Dozier...hmmm...still haven't seen the best of yet. Third full year in the majors, third full year at 2B, allowed to mostly stabilize in the lineup, BA and OB go up. HR's might dip some though, which is OK. Plouffe at 3B, same productive guy as last year overall. Santana at SS, spending a little time in the OF to spell guys, and because the solid Escobar is still around. Regression for Santana in BA and BABIP, but a rise in BB and OB, probably a slight increase in SLG, and a few more SB. I keep Nunez. He's a solid second utility, can hit a little, can run a little and has some pop. I'd work him in ST at 1B and the OF to see just how versatile and helpful he can actually be. Vargas is the DH, back up 1B, and a possible ROY.

 

Outfield:

 

Arcia in RF. I trade for Bourjos. I've read Harrison as an option for said trade. I'm willing to do so, but not convinced. The Cards just traded 2 pitchers and think they could easily be in the market for some additional help/depth whether it be Milone or Pelfrey + cash, or something on the milb side like Z Jones, Gilmartin, Wheeler, etc. Bourjos can't hit? Hmmm...maybe. But he had a dynamite 2011 with the Angels and a solid SSS 2013. Even at career average numbers he solves a major defensive issue, provides a little help in the 9 hole, may platoon some with the LH Schafer, and offers a nice 4th OF candidate for the future.

 

LF is Alex Rios. 1 yr at $5-7M should do it. I might want to include some sort of club option "just in case". He won't turn 34 until after the season starts, and offers a whole lot more range than Hunter, with as good or better bat, more speed on the basepaths ,probably as good as arm....just not as good of a story. As stated elsewhere, if Rios does nothing but play good defense....he still has an arm and reportedly good legs to run...and hits to nothing more than career average numbers, he's still a better overall LF than we've had in 6+ years.

 

Schafer offers a very intriguing option off the bench, and could form a quasi-platoon with Bourjos, as well as being a PR and late inning defensive replacement option. I'm not sold on Parmelee, and yet, he quietly had the best overall season of his limited ML career. Could he be a 3 spot, DH/PH bench option?

 

If you've counted properly, I've allowed for a 26 man roster, allowing for what will undoubtedly be 1 too many position players. But I'm hedging my bets a bit for injury, trade, demotion and such.

 

Rotation:

 

Hughes

Masterson

Gibson

Nolasco

May

 

Pen:

 

Perkins

FA

Fien

Meyer

Tonkin, Oliveros, Achter, Pressley audition

Thielbar

Milone/Duensing survivor vs Darnell

 

Lineup:

 

Santana=SS

Dozier=2B

Mauer=1B

Vargas=DH

Rios=LF

Arcia=RF

Plouffe=3B

Pinto/Suzuki=C

Bourjos=CF

 

Bench:

 

Escobar

Schafer

Nunez

Parmelee

 

(again, 14 position players at this point)

 

By mid season, or so, we should be in position to move a SP, a healthy and productive Masterson or Nolasco. Both offer positive trade value depending on any given club's needs/wants/plans. Meyer now moves in to the rotation, hopefully building upon his 130 IP last season to something more, and a milb reliver is promoted.

 

Beginning payroll is $70-75M after raises and pre-arbitration depending on if the Twins keep either or both of Milone and Duensing. In my scenario, one way or another, we keep only one. Thus we begin with a projected payroll of $72.5M and add up to $25M with Masterson, Anderson on milb deal payable up to a max of $5M depending on ML service and performance numbers, Rios and an as of yet un-named veteranRP, giving us a total payroll of approximately $97.5M. More than affordable. And should Milone, Duensing and Pelfrey all be ridden of, said payroll could drop to $90M.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Doc, I thought for sure your prescription would be... more cowbell.

 

I agree with your big picture though have minor quibbles. I think the rotation is just a baby elephant at this point. Nolasco will bounce back (it's winter, we can be optimistic). Suzuki swears by Milone and caught him in Oakland. Meyer is ready. (How can he not be?) Hughes can't pitch as well next year but can still be good.

 

The lineup could go many directions from now until mid summer. So many question marks. It could be top 5 again (doubt it) or it could lose last year's mojo, but at worst it should still be a couple spots within league median. Parmelee won't be back. He made too many blunders on the basepaths and his 1B skills are redundant with Vargas now.

 

I think shaking up the coaching staff was like shaking up a snow globe. We'll see most of the same flakes as last year, but they'll be in different places with a bit more buzz and energy when the season starts.

[Mike Sixel]

Reasonable.

 

I would not sign a FA RP......but that's because I don't think this team should be spending money on RP, when: a: RP are generally unpredictable; b: the Twins won't spend a crazy amount of money, so they should spend it where it really matters; c: they have options, they should test them out in another year not in the playoffs; d: they have lots of questions at SP, so they'll need to potentially send arms to AAA for rest (from the pen) and call up other arms. You can't do that if you have a bunch of veterans w/o options left.

 

Other than that, it's an ok offseason, but about what I see happening.

[DocBauer]

Doc, I thought for sure your prescription would be... more cowbell.

 

You can NEVR have too much cowbell!

[DocBauer]

Reasonable.

 

I would not sign a FA RP......but that's because I don't think this team should be spending money on RP, when: a: RP are generally unpredictable; b: the Twins won't spend a crazy amount of money, so they should spend it where it really matters; c: they have options, they should test them out in another year not in the playoffs; d: they have lots of questions at SP, so they'll need to potentially send arms to AAA for rest (from the pen) and call up other arms. You can't do that if you have a bunch of veterans w/o options left.

 

Other than that, it's an ok offseason, but about what I see happening.

Mike, I have gone back and forth multiple times on signing a RP. Ultimately, my decision is to not invest in one. However, if if I'm actually trying to improve the team, and I do have some uncertainty in the pen, I decided on a small investment. A flyer looking for a Burton type for a year. I'm still a little torn though.

[jay]

Pretty darn close to my blueprint, so obviously I like it.  A few thoughts...

 

- Pelfrey in the pen instead of a FA RP

- Non-tender Swarzak (not mentioned here), Duensing (especially with Meyer available in the pen at least early) and Nunez (your extra position player)

- Extend Dozier (increased 2015 cost)

 

I'm not ready to commit a 2015 rotation spot to May yet.  Time in AAA wouldn't be the worst thing due to better depth and provides a chance to work on some things he might have learned in his MLB stint this year.  Masterson, Anderson and Nolasco would all have injury questions to answer, but Milone and May are good fallback options along with Meyer or even Pelfrey who can be stretched out of the pen.

 

That ends up in the $95M range with Anderson as the unknown with incentives.  If the team is struggling at mid-season, Schafer, Anderson, Rios, Masterson, Milone, and Pelfrey all represent options to trade/waive to shed salary.