MLB Trade Rumors - Tomas

[lightfoot789]

In the Twins system Walker is not elite.  In another system he might very well be.

 

Poor contact yes, but Walker either led his team in Hits or was 2nd on team in Hits through 3 seasons.  Led his team in Runs or was 2nd in Runs Scored through 3 seasons.  His Walk / BB totals for this year would have placed him 2nd on the AAA squad and would have placed him 1st on the AA squad.  His stolen base rate is much higher than Rosario at each of the same levels. 

 

Have the Twins ever had a prospect like Walker who led each of his levels in HRs and RBIs and failed? NO

 

Maybe guys who had something close, but never anyone like him who failed.  Start researching..........

 

That's why I say everyone's assumptions of failure are without substance.  All he does is win and has never shown the ability for failure when it comes to winning and leading his team with production numbers.  What would you expect from him with improved contact numbers?  With his contact talent, all one could expect is MVP numbers  (35 HRs / 125 RBI / and a .350 OBP)?  

 

What would you have expected from him with a .350 OBP this year in terms of numbers?  Does he become a Top 5 talent with those projected numbers?  That would be MVP scary.  That's not to say he can't get better.  He's scary already to opposing coaches and any improvement would be that much scarier.  All Star Scarier.

 

And that's having been an All Star this Year (Mid Season and Post Season) as well as an MVP.   Seriously Flawed based on what you've heard to expect, not based on production for his teams.  Tomas Who?  $68 Million Why?

[nicksaviking]

 

Have the Twins ever had a prospect like Walker who led each of his levels in HRs and RBIs and failed? NO

 

Maybe guys who had something close, but never anyone like him who failed.  Start researching..........

 

 

I guess I'd counter with doing some research on guys in A ball who can't get on base and have trouble making contact.  The Twins may not have had a bunch of pure minor league sluggers to sample from, but there are plenty of comps league wide who have led the minors in HR but failed at the MLB level.  Baseball history is loaded with power hitters who couldn't cut it but dominated AAA and AA,  Walker is merely doing this against youngsters in A ball.  Baseball just does not have a history of minor league sluggers with an OBP around .300 who have made it.  There likely are some weak hitting middle infielders who have made it when only defense was expected from them, but we're talking about a guy who gets on base less than Pedro Florimon did in the minors. 

 

I can't find any comps at all.  For sluggers, OBP is the one thing that normally decreases once they make the majors as these guys don't get pitched around as often.  He's not going to make it with a .280 MLB OBP, he's just not.

 

Plus, he's in A ball, and likely will start the year there again.  Any front office that makes free agent decisions based on players in A ball needs to be fired on the spot.

[laloesch]

Why no hope for Meyers and May's?  Gibson was in the same position last year and out performed 2 out of the 3 free agent signings?  The Twins are never going to buy their into first place.  Sometimes the best way to try and giving your own players a chance.

 

May is going to better than Gibson.  Much more dynamic of a pitcher.  Has four solid offerings and a good fastball.  Give him time this season and he within two years he will be the second best starter on this club behind Hughes.  

 

Meyer on the other hand, i'm not as sure about.  He has a blistering fastball and can flat out strike guys out, but his off-speed stuff is just not there yet. I'd like to see him start the season in the bullpen as a long reliever similar to Santana's tract.  There's no point in him pitching in AAA anymore, same with May. 

[lightfoot789]

I promise you that all of those minor league sluggers (you mentioned) who failed, never led their respective leagues in HRs, RBIs and (top 5) in Runs scored (consistently).  Not to mention their teams in HITS..............  Show me that guy anywhere in the minors with those credentials and I will show you a guy who has been to the Show.   Prove me wrong and then show me where those failed prospects ranked within their organizations.

 

What Walker has done is not the norm in any respect.  I agree with the odds being against him based on the "norm", but there is nothing normal about what he's done in his short MiLB career.  Freaky lucky or Freaky special.

 

What do the Twins feel about him - See article on MiLB website: 

Walker, Berrios excite Twins with bat, ball

Outfielder, right-hander leading by example in Minnesota's system

[tobi0040]

I promise you that all of those minor league sluggers (you mentioned) who failed, never led their respective leagues in HRs, RBIs and (top 5) in Runs scored (consistently).  Not to mention their teams in HITS..............  Show me that guy anywhere in the minors with those credentials and I will show you a guy who has been to the Show.   Prove me wrong and then show me where those failed prospects ranked within their organizations.

 

What Walker has done is not the norm in any respect.  I agree with the odds being against him based on the "norm", but there is nothing normal about what he's done in his short MiLB career.  Freaky lucky or Freaky special.

 

What do the Twins feel about him - See article on MiLB website: 

Walker, Berrios excite Twins with bat, ball

Outfielder, right-hander leading by example in Minnesota's system

 

Someone else pointed this out on another thread, but going off of leading a league in the minors is a bit misleading.  Really good prospects typically play in more than one league over the course of a year due to being promoted.  In 2013, Sano and Buxton both played about 60 games in two different leagues.  They would not have lead the league in any sort of tally stat like HR's.  Sano for example had a combined line of .280/.382/.610 with 35 HR and 103 RBI.  But those were split between A+ and AA. 

 

I am glad we have Walker in our system for his power potential, but I agree that he is 23 and has a career OBP of .312 and has not seen AA yet.  He is going to have to take a step forward in contact rate and hopefully take a few walks.  I view him as a project and a freak athlete with upside.  Nothing that should change our off-season plans at this point.

 

BA did not have Walker as a top 20 prospect in the Florida league he lead last year.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/2014-league-top-20-prospects-index/

[Mike Sixel]

Walker is in A ball.....the Twins have NO LF or CF on the roster....and Tomas might be able to start in LF right now.....not sure what the two have to do with each other right now.

 

Even IF Walker works out, it will be 2 years at least, I'd guess, what should they do in the mean time?

[nicksaviking]

I promise you that all of those minor league sluggers (you mentioned) who failed, never led their respective leagues in HRs, RBIs and (top 5) in Runs scored (consistently).  Not to mention their teams in HITS..............  Show me that guy anywhere in the minors with those credentials and I will show you a guy who has been to the Show.   Prove me wrong and then show me where those failed prospects ranked within their organizations.

 

What Walker has done is not the norm in any respect.  I agree with the odds being against him based on the "norm", but there is nothing normal about what he's done in his short MiLB career.  Freaky lucky or Freaky special.

 

What do the Twins feel about him - See article on MiLB website: 

Walker, Berrios excite Twins with bat, ball

Outfielder, right-hander leading by example in Minnesota's system

Brandon Wood jumps to mind. I even thought of a Twins comp, Michael Restovich. These kinds of guys are everywhere, AND they didn't have the on base issues that Walker has.

 

Sure the Twins say nice things about him, but they don't like him enough to move him more than a level a year, and he played college ball. He more than likely will be a 23-year-old repeating A ball..

[lightfoot789]

If the two people that you compare him with are Buxton and Sano - I'm cool.  In terms of being in High A and not flourishing - Vargas was ranked lower than Walker last year Pre Season with a .280 average in High A and finished his next season (2014) batting over .300 in AA and becoming a MLB regular thereafter.  He is now looked at as the DH of the future with much fan fare.  Sometimes players just need to be challenged. 

 

Walker had damn near a .500 OBP in college.  His average was the highest in the country against Friday night Aces (Baseball America) during his last year in college.  Let him play against the best and see what happens.  Before you talk about the ASUN - this years NL Rookie of the Year and NL CY Young were from the ASUN.   

 

What have the Twins asked of him in terms of his progression thru the minors?  Are they more concerned with winning at the minor league level (asking him to produce runs) or asking him to work on areas of need, everyone else deems important?  Every interview he has - He mentions that they want him to produce runs.  At what sacrifice to his overall development are they steering him?  Since he has been responsible for most of his teams run production in a large way - I can see how he is the one not to get promoted and serving as the sacrificial lamb.  

 

I think the Twins somewhat used Walker in terms of why they held him back.  Walker was the only college position player (2012 draft) still in A+ ball (entire MiLB) who didn't have injury issues.  Every other organization felt enough of their draft choices to promote them to AA and see what happens.  Not the Twins and Not Walker.  Granted he was the youngest college player drafted in 2012, but still.  So you are either correct and he is the most flawed college player in the entire 2012 draft or the "Twins Way" of thinking is somewhat flawed.    Would you say that the other 29 teams have prospect management issues or the Twins got it right?  Forget what you feel of me and my love for this prospect.  Which way do we want the development path to go?  Hold them back or challenge them?  He deserves the challenge is all I'm saying (AA to AAA) during this 2015 season.  You can always send him back down.  It has to be nice to go into a new season having experrinced a level for part of a year and get to prepare accordingly.  Instead of learning from scratch every year and having to disect new pitchers entering into a league mid season all over again while others get promoted to do the same thing.

 

2 ABs with the MLB team in spring training and (1 DBL & 1 HR).    Not even close to a true sample size, but does tell you the kid competes and is a winner.  Give him some Reps is all I'm saying and let his flaws at the next level get exposed along with his production.  What's the loss?  Reps from Rodriguez, Thomas, Krisknicka, etc., etc.?  23 years old all of next season!

[tobi0040]

Minor Numbers

 

Vargas     .288 avg, .367 OBP, .486 slugging, .854 OPS.  24.2% K percentage

 

Walker  .259 avg, .312 OBP, .484 slugging, .796 OPS, 27.8% K percentage

 

At the time of the promotion, Vargas had an OPS of .832 with 17 HR in just 97 games at AA.  He was putting up better numbers at AA than Walker has in the lower leagues without the red flags.

 

It seems to me you put Walker in the big leagues next year and he hits about .225, his OBP is about .260, and he wiffs about 35% of the time.