Article: DRAFT DAY: Twins Myth #3448: Outfield Depth

[Mike Sixel]

But when has Terry Ryan traded prospects for pitching? I think that was Jim's point.....that said, I understand his other argument, that one pitcher doesn't help as much as one OFer. It is a good point, as are most of Mr. Crikket's points.

[ashbury]

I'd pose the question of whether people really believe the best use of the #2 pick overall would be on a player who, in the unlikely event that he actually hits his ceiling, would appear in less than 20% of his team's games and in less than 15% of his team's total innings

Doesn't a similar logic cap a batter's opportunities to aid the offense at a little above 10%?

[Jim Crikket]

ashburyjohn: Position players don't just bat, however, unless you're drafting a pure DH (which I don't think anyone does). They also contribute every inning by playing defense and, hopefully, do so almost every game. A starting pitcher can only influence the games he pitches. A position player has the potential to influence every game offensively and defensively.

 

mike wants wins: You've stumbled upon my secret for always being right... I simply argue both sides of the debate.

[Cap'n Piranha]

I noticed that right away too. But this statement from the article made me refrain from commenting about it.

 

"Obviously there are several more outfielders in the system, four to five per team, but for people to say that the Twins have huge outfield depth is, unfortunately, no longer the case."

 

Sure, but the issue I have with that is some of the other outfielders that WERE mentioned. Rene Tosoni, who hasn't hit above .271 (at FTM) since 2008, which would be his age 21/22 season (July birthday). Arcia on the other hand, in his mostly age 21 season (May birthday) is showing far more success. Compare their two lines, which are actually apples to apples, since they each have approximately 45 games at the A+ level in the seasons I'm referencing.

 

Arcia--.330/.388/.551 (.940 OPS), 24/61 hits are XBH (14 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, .39 XBH AVG), 18 BB, 44K (.4 BB/K ratio) in 48 games

Tosoni--.300/.402/.425 (.827 OPS), 11/42 hits are XBH (7 2B, 3 3B, 1 HR, .26 XBH AVG), 21 BB, 30K (.7 BB/K ratio) in 42 games

 

For further consideration, here are Hicks' numbers from last year (his age 21 season, October birthday). Since he played 122 games, I divided all non-average numbers by 2.7, to get a 45 game sample size for ease of comparison

 

Hicks--.242/.354/.368 (.722 OPS), 15.2/40 hits are XBH (11.5 2B, 1.9 3B, 1.9 HR, .38 XBH AVG), 28.9 BB, 40.7K (.7 BB/K ratio) in 45 game sample

 

Other than the strikeout numbers, Arcia is clearly the most advanced, despite being the only one of these players that was not at least 21 for the entire season. If I had to rank the Twins outfield prospects right now, I feel like I would have to go in the following order...

 

1. Arcia--should be at AA, which puts him at the exact same level, except younger, than any of the other true prospects on this list

2. Benson--closer to putting it all together than anyone else. If the time off lets him get things mentally right, he'll be back at AAA in August, and with the big club in September

3. Hicks--has actually held his numbers (other than BB/K ratio) despite moving up a level. Is hitting for more power, and stealing more bases while getting caught less than last year too.

4. Any number of other guys could go in here, but they are all way down in the system, and probably 3 years away from contributing (Morales, Williams, Rodriguez, Kepler).

 

I can't call Tosoni a prospect anymore because he's about to turn 26, has big league time, but couldn't hang at AAA this year. Barring him catching on fire, Tosoni seems like a replacement level outfielder at best at this point, as he's unlikely to move past Revere or Benson in the pecking order in my opinion, and as demonstrated above, has Arcia hot on his heels.

[CDog]

then, when we look back at this in 7 or 8 years, we can see who was smart.

Or lucky....

[ashbury]

ashburyjohn: Position players don't just bat

Sure, but the additional value brought by the glove pales in comparison, bringing a position player up to maybe around the same 15% you mention for a stud pitcher, by this back-of-the-envelope math.

 

Since I see the balance as being more or less close, I guess I'm poaching on your patented technique of not being squarely on either side of the debate either.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd have Benson working with a meditation expert right now. His brain needs to slow down.

[Steve Lein]

I'm with Seth, Buxton barely cracks the top 5 for me. Appel, Zimmer, Correa, Gausman, Buxton. Twins aren't going to ever sign a top-flight FA pitcher, so if they want one, they have to draft him. Now's as good a time as they're going to get having the #2 pick to do so, even if none of these guys are Strasburg-like.