Bowden - Hitters Who Could Be Dealt

[stringer bell]

Further comment: Reimold's audition could be as short as the length of the Mauer injury. I think it is worth the risk given the lack of options for the Twins right now.

[kydoty]

Without reading the rest of the posts, I'll just say that there is no reason for Willingham or Morales to be on this team by the end of July.

 

And if Sano was healthy this season, Plouffe might be on the way out as well.

[kydoty]

Also, when Willingham gets traded, I hope it is to a team guaranteed to make the playoffs. This is his 11th season and he has yet to experience the postseason.

[Mike Sixel]

According to what I can find, Hicks out offensed Morales so far this year......he's not exactly building value just yet.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think Morales' value will be based more on his track record - teams will assume this is like an extended spring training for him and base their offers on getting the player they chose not sign as a free agent in the offseason. That could work to the Twins' benefit.

The opposite would be true for guys like Colabello and Parmelee - they could hit .400 for the month of June and still not really be on anyone's shopping list.

[jay]

The kind of player that might help is a young player sitting in A-Ball that has yet to perform well but has the tools. They could also look for a player in AA and AAA that is struggling but has always been very young for his league like Escobar.

 

Great comment. Several others have echoed this as well. I think it's fair to say that Terry and team have been successful in the past targeting those A-level players, who certainly aren't sure things.

 

Just reviewing the notable trade deadline deals at MLB.com...

 

2013:

Alfonso Soriano netted the Yankees 25th ranked prospect last year (who went on to be ranked #15 for the Cubs after the season).

 

The Cubs also dealt Scott Hairston for the Nationals' 27th ranked prospect (who then ranked #21 for the Cubs).

 

2012:

Carlos Lee got the Marlins #4 ranked prospect (Matt Dominguez, current Astros starting 3B)

 

Jim Thome was traded for the Orioles #18 and #21 ranked prospects

 

Ichiro got the Yankees #16 prospect plus another guy

 

2011:

Derrek Lee got the #14 Orioles prospect

 

Ryan Ludwick was sold for cash

 

Jerry Hairston (again) netted Erik Komatsu (remember him?)

 

I stopped looking at that point...

 

Thanks for doing the research. Remaining salary and expected production would seem to be two big factors. Hammer should have about $2.5M left at the deadline. In comparison to the deals noted (especially the 3 closest comparisons below), I think one can reach the conclusion that the return for Hammer should be higher than these were.

 

Soriano -- full year remaining on a bad contract (CHC had to send significant $ in the deal), older, similar power and defense, worse OBP.

 

Carlos Lee -- much larger $ for the rest of the season ($9M), similar (maybe worse) defensive value, worse OBP, better power in prime of career but had declined significantly as of 2012 and went on to retire after the season.

 

Thome -- 41 years old and struggled in pinch-hitting duty with Phillies prior to trade, a bit less $, limited to DH duty only with fairly similar stats at that point in his career, retired after the season.

 

If I'm picking the highest value between any of those 3 at the time of the trade vs 2014 Hammer, I'm taking 2014 Hammer.