Hello, fellow humans! My name is William Malone IV. Son of William Malone III. And I come with great news! Spring training baseball is finally here. That means regular season baseball is right around the corner.

The Minnesota Twins enter this year with an over/under of 84.5, according to DraftKings. This is the 12th highest over/under total in the league, and the highest among AL Central teams. But we all know these games are not played by Las Vegas projections. They are played by human beings on a baseball field. With that in mind, let's see how the Twins have done against their over/under projections during the Target Field-era.

2024 - 85.5 (Under, 82)
The Twins seemed destined to blow right past their over/under total of 85.5 in 2024. They were sitting at 70-53 on August 18th, which is a 92 win pace. But then Jorge Alcala had arguably the worst outing of his career, blowing a four run lead and costing his team a chance to sweep the defending champion Texas Rangers. Things spiraled from there, and the Twins only finished with 82 wins.

2023 - 83.5 (Over, 87)
While it seemed like the 2024 Twins were destined to go over their total, the 2023 Twins were the opposite. They were below .500 at the All-Star break, and things didn't get much better after play resumed. Minnesota rode a five game losing streak into the month of August, which included a sweep at the hands of last place Kansas City. But the Twins went 33-22 from August 1st onward, comfortably winning the AL Central by nine games and clearing their 83.5 total.

2022 - 80.5 (Under, 78)
There's starting to be a pattern of the over/under race flipping due to a late season surge or collapse. A late season surge saved the Twins in 2023. It sank them in 2024. 2022 was the sinking variety.  Minnesota played at an 87 win pace in the first half, and they held a 3.5 game lead in the AL Central. They were still playing at an 84 win pace when August ended, but they had fallen out of first place by then. September was their worst month yet, and the club finished 78-84.

2021 - 89.5 (Under, 73)
2021 is probably the Twins most disappointing season, based on preseason expectations. They had won 101 games in 2019, and played at a 97 win pace during the COVID shortened 2020 season. But things were ugly from the start for Minnesota in 2021. They were 9-15 in April, and never fully recovered. This led to Jose Berrios and Nelson Cruz being shown the door at the deadline. Oddly, they played a little better after the deadline to help avoid a 90 loss season. The Twins went 30-28 after the deadline. But it was too little, too late.

2020 - 34.5 (Over, 36)
The shortened COVID year was weird. There's probably not much you remember from it, unless you're a Dodgers fan. For reference, 34 wins over 60 games is a 92 win pace. The Twins 36-24 record means they played at a 97 win pace. Minnesota played jump rope with their over/under line all season, pushing themselves over by winning five of their final seven. Before that seven game stretch, they had lost four of five. They were as hot and cold as a team can be over a shortened 60 game sprint. This also included a six game losing streak in late August.

2019 - 84.5 (Over, 101)
Slugging a Major League record 307 home runs is a good way to blow 17 wins by your preseason over/under projection. Minnesota hit this mark on September 2nd with a thrilling come from behind win over Detroit. Max Kepler decided home runs were boring, and delivered a two run single in the eighth inning to help his club pull a head that night. Over bettors were able to finally cash their tickets, but it was a result that had felt safe for a few months at that point.

2018 - 82.5 (Under, 78)
Minnesota went to the playoffs in 2017, but a lot of their off-season moves blew up in their face. Logan Morrison wasn't the DH upgrade they expected, and Lance Lynn wasn't able to strengthen the rotation. Ervin Santana going down with a finger injury in spring training didn't help matters, and Jorge Polanco missed 80 games due to a failed drug test.

2017 - 70.5 (Over, 85)
Fans had no reason to be optomisct heading into 2017. The Twins had lost 103 games in 2016, and followed it up with a quiet off-season. Jason Castro and Matt Belisle were the only players they added on Major League deals. Many saw Castro as a downgrade to the departing Kurt Suzuki. 70.5 was the third lowest total in the league, only ahead of the Padres and Athletics. And then look what happened? They won 85 games and wound up in the Wild Card Game. Baseball is funny sometimes!

2016 - 78.5 (Under, 59)
No surprise that the worst season in Minnesota Twins history saw the club fall short of their over/under total. It's the eighth worst season if you include the Senators. They had some really lean years while in Washington. Those guys once had a 114 loss season...and they didn't even start playing 162 games until the 60's when the franchise had already moved to the Midwest.

2015 - 72.5 (Over, 83)
After four straight 90+ loss seasons, the Twins didn't deserve to have a high over/under total. And maybe the 2015 Twins weren't much better than the 2011-14 teams, but they rode a crazy hot month of May to a winning record. That was actually their only winning month in 2015, but they went 20-7. This gave the Twins a nice cushion to coast to an 83-79 record. Minnesota was mathematically alive for a wild card spot as last as the 161st game, but it wasn't meant to be.

2014 - 70.5 (Under, 70)
Bettors were certainly stressing out the 2014 Twins down to the very end. They were sitting at 69-91 with a series against the first place Detroit Tigers heading into the final weekend of the season. Minnesota needed a sweep to finish over 70.5 wins. They won the first two, setting up a season finale for all the marbles. And then the Tigers put their foot down, winning 3-0. These games actually mattered for Detroit too. The AL Central race between Detroit and Kansas City came down to the final day, mostly because the Twins had played spoiler in those first two games.

2013 - 70.5 (Under, 66)
Much like 2024 or 2022, this is another year where a late season collapse caused the Twins to fall short of their over/under total. Except this time, it didn't cost them a playoff spot in the process. They went 3-17 in their final 20 games. All they needed to go was go 8-12 to hit 71 wins. There was also a 1-12 stretch in late June/early July, and a ten game losing streak in May. Those three stretches add up to a 4-39 record, which is a 15-147 pace. So there were obviously some good stretches too if they were flirting with 70 wins.

2012 - 74.5 (Under, 66)
There was some hope that the 99 loss season in 2011 was a fluke. After all, Minnesota had won the AL Central in 2009 and 2010. They also lost a tiebreaker game for the division crown in 2008. Hall of Fame catcher Joe Mauer bounced back strong from the infamous bilateral leg weakness, leading the American League with a .416 on-base percentage. But they needed more than one person to have a bounce back year, which didn't happen.

2011 - 87.5 (Under, 63)
As you just read in the 2012 section, the 2011 Twins were a giant disappointment. Ron Gardenhire had won six division titles and suffered just one losing season in his first nine years as Twins manager, but that era was over. There's a lot of blame to go around. "Piranha ball" wasn't working as well in a league that was becoming more and more analytical. Big boppers such as Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau were non-factors. While Mauer bounced back to his All-Star form in future seasons, Morneau never did.

2010 - 83.5 (Over 94)
Everyone knew the 2010 Twins were going to hit, but pitching was a huge question. Carl Pavano and Francisco Lirano delivered in a big way. Liriano actually got Cy Young votes and won AL Comeback Player of the Year. It was the season Twins fans had been waiting for since his 2006 injury. Pavano went 17-11 with a 3.75 ERA, which was a huge upgrade over his 5.10 ERA for a year earlier (4.64 in 12 post-deadline starts with Twins). You could've made a Comeback Player of the Year case for him as well.