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FanGraphs 2024 Twins Projections


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Let's take a look at where CBS Sports has the Twins Projected for stats wise. 

Jeffers- 91 G, 74-319, 42 R, 14 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 46 RBI, 34 BB, 101 K, 2 SB, .233/.317/.424

Santana- 107 G, 92-400, 53 R, 19 2B, 0 3B, 15 HR, 56 RBI, 56 BB, 84 K, 3 SB, .230/.326/.395

Julien- 120 G, 104-431, 68 R, 22 2B, 1 3B, 14 HR, 54 RBI, 76 BB, 155 K, 7 SB, .240/.358/.397

Correa- 138 G, 137-524, 76 R, 29 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 72 RBI, 61 BB, 125 K, 1 SB, .262/.341/.443

Lewis- 138 G, 144-537, 83 R, 30 2B, 2 3B, 26 HR, 92 RBI, 48 BB, 138 K, 13 SB, .268/.333/.478

Wallner- 100 G, 87-373, 53 R, 21 2B, 2 3B, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 47 BB, 145 K, 2 SB, .234/.335/.426

Buxton- 125 G, 114-482, 77 R, 28 2B, 3 3B, 29 HR, 78 RBI, 45 BB, 160 K, 11 SB, .237/.309/.488

Kepler- 133 G, 123-505, 74 R, 27 2B, 2 3B, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 58 BB, 116 K, 4 SB, .244/.326/.444

Kirilloff- 91 G, 90-351, 46 R, 17 2B, 1 3B, 13 HR, 51 RBI, 31 BB, 91 K, 2 SB, .256/.325/.421

Castro- 92 G, 90-362, 49 R, 17 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 43 RBI, 25 BB, 94 K, 18 SB, .248/.308/.389

Margot- 79 G, 84-313, 39 R, 18 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 37 RBI, 24 BB, 57 K, 9 SB, .269/.324/.398

Farmer- 62 G, 60-242, 28 R, 11 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 30 RBI, 15 BB, 55 K, 2 SB, .246/.304/.378

Vazquez- 81 G, 72-294, 32 R, 14 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 32 RBI, 21 BB, 65 K, 2 SB, .244/.296/.353

 

Lopez- 12-9, 3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 32 GS, 192 IP, 210 K, 51 BB, 169 H, 77 ER

Ryan- 11-11, 4.02 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 31 GS, 175 IP, 187 K, 47 BB, 156 H, 78 ER

Ober- 9-8, 4.11 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 28 GS, 149 IP, 145 K, 36 BB, 144 H, 68 ER

Paddack- 8-8, 4.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 23 GS(29 G), 124 IP, 115 K, 30 BB, 124 H, 59 ER

Varland- 8-8. 4.18 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 21 GS (45 G), 142 IP, 134 K, 42 BB, 139 H, 66 ER

By the looks of these, they think both Paddack and Varland will transition to the bullpen at some point. These projections leaves 101 starts up for grabs in the lineup, plus 27 starts up for grabs in the rotation. These seem a lot more realistic than the CBS Sports projections. Still interesting that both systems so far have Buxton at 125 or more games (He has only topped 100 games in a season once before).

What do you think about these projections?

8 Comments


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Rod Carews Birthday

Posted

These seem pretty conservative, maybe not as conservative as the CBS Sports projections were crazy, but generally VERY safe.  Correa and Lewis leading the team in games played (if they can stay healthy) seems fairly reasonable, but Buxton as the #4 in games played seems pretty far out on a limb.  Overall, they are planning for a lot of regression in the rate stats by some of our younger players and for the pitching to be just "ok", which is normal in projection systems when there isn't a long track record.  I'm hoping that there are several players who outperform these predictions so the team can have a really good year.

 

Karbo

Posted

I think (or at least hope) both Ober and Paddack out perform these projections. 

DJL44

Posted

That's a pretty good season for Joe Ryan

bean5302

Posted

21 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Optimistic especially with 125 games for Buxton. hope they're right.

If I gambled, I'd take the under on Buxton at 125 games all day.

Greglw3

Posted

I think they’re horrible projections especially for Santana, Julien, Jeffers, Wallner, Buxton. If the Twins offense performs per these projections, it will be a long, long, season. 

My general feeling on projections is that there is zero need for them and the chances of them being accurate in aggregate is near zero. I’m totally and thoroughly unimpressed with their work.

 

Fatbat

Posted

These pretty much say we are a below average team. Team BA about .246. Ouch. 

Oldgoat_MN

Posted

Last year 5 of these players had an OPS >.800. This year we'll only have 1?

I think that's unlikely 

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