Entry posted by stringer bell in Analysis ·
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The Twins concluded the first month of the 2023 regular season with a 17-12 record. They stand 3.5 games ahead of Cleveland in the mediocre AL Central Division. What was projected to be a tough April schedule ended up being very manageable. The Twins played seven games against the New York Yankees, winning four, at an ideal time, with the Yankee pitching staff and lineup hamstrung by injuries. They also played the World Champion Astros, winning two of three, while the Astros were in an early season funk.
How did the Twins manage to win 17 games? Pitching is the easy answer. The Twins allowed only 108 runs in 29 games, second best runs per game in the AL. Meanwhile, they scored 134 runs, seventh best, despite early struggles and cold weather. The offensive production was inconsistent until the just-completed home stand where the Twins scored six runs or more in six of the last seven games. That production was fueled by the long ball. The Twins have homered in eleven consecutive games and have already hit nine three-run homers--last year they hit seventeen in the entire season.
The pitching started out fantastic. There has been some regression to the mean, but there is still a lot to like. The top three starters have been healthy and effective. Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez have taken the ball and most often completed six or more effective innings. Gray is 4-0 with a microscopic 0.77 ERA, Ryan is 5-0 with a fine 2.81 ERA and after two consecutive subpar starts Lopez is 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA. Lopez has the most innings pitched and strikeouts and his first four starts were outstanding. The bottom half of the rotation has predictably been less effective and now seems dogged by injury. After two decent starts, Kenta Maeda has left his last two starts due to injury and was knocked around before leaving in his last start. Tyler Mahle pitched pretty well, but left his last start and now will be shut down for most of the month of May. The oft-noted rotation depth will be utilized with Bailey Ober already joining the rotation and most likely Louie Varland the next man up. The Twins bullpen has been a top heavy affair. Closer Jhoan Duran wows with his awesome stuff although he's had a few hiccups so far. Jorge Lopez hasn't allowed an earned run, but allowed some hits and an inherited runner in his last two outings, Griffin Jax has been mostly effective although batted ball luck makes his numbers look pretty pedestrian and Caleb Thielbar continues to thrive with one poor outing in an otherwise outstanding month of April. Long relief has done their job, providing lots of innings and pitches in the few one-sided affairs the Twins have played. The problem is the other guys. Jorge Alcala and Jovani Moran were supposed to be reliable bridges to the aforementioned late-inning high-leverage guys and they haven't been effective. Alcala was sent to the minors and Moran looks like he won't be trusted, at least for the near future. Emilio Pagan also provokes anxiety, although he too only had one really bad outing.
The Twins' defense is pretty sound so far this year. There isn't a lot of range outside of Taylor, but most everyone is reliable at turning outs into outs. Donovan Solano has played one game at second base and several at first, and he appears substandard. Joey Gallo has adjusted very well to first base. Miranda has been okay, but nothing special at third base. The outfield has played well defensively, with a few exceptions.
Positive surprises for the month of April center on the pitching. Lopez, Ryan and Gray have been outstanding on the front end of the rotation--they were projected to be good and they have been better than that. The back end of the bullpen has been as good as advertised, including Jorge Lopez, who seems to have regained the form he had with the Orioles. The Twins have gotten good productivity and good defense from the catchers. Polanco and Buxton are hitting and figure to become the dynamic center of the lineup for a good team. For the position players, health seems to be returning, with Kyle Farmer on the mend and Alex Kirilloff ending his injury rehab.
There are concerns that need to be addressed. The front end of the bullpen is unreliable at present and this is one area where the Twins lack depth. Someone needs to step up. Further, if the Twins continue to lean heavily on Jax, Thielbar, JLopez and Duran, they will risk burning out the effective back end guys. Carlos Correa, Nick Gordon and (marginally) Jose Miranda have not been effective hitters. Patience is probably needed for the hitters, with Nick Gordon probably on the bubble for demotion or DFA. The Twins are last in MLB in stolen bases, mostly due to lack of team speed, which also probably is reflected in a lack of range at several positions.
In summary, the first month has gone very well. The Twins are now favorites to win the Central division according to betting lines and Fangraphs, but there are still five months of baseball left to secure a place in the playoffs. There are flaws on this team, particularly in bullpen depth. It should be exciting going forward and there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic.
- NoCryingInBaseball, DocBauer and Dman
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