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caninatl04

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Everything posted by caninatl04

  1. caninatl04
    I respectfully disagree with, well, everything. First, I remain a fan of the front office. They have done a lot to rebuild the minors. And last year many on this site were enthused by their free agent signings. I'm confused about the thin returns during a playoff run. Are you talking about 2017 when their trades seemed to light a fire and the Twins made it to a wild card game. Or 2018, when they were well out of it, and received (in my opinion) some really nice pieces. As for Molitor, do you think Flavine had a choice? Finally, just as the most popular sports figure in any city is the backup quarterback, almost universally the least popular is the owner.
  2. caninatl04
    Has Castro suffered concussions?
  3. caninatl04
    I agree that this is the most frustrating time of year. Ideally, the front office would leak one potential trade each day which we "experts" could dissect like a fetal pig. But, alas, with the possible exception of next Friday's Rule 5, I honestly don't think we will much to chew on until late January. Sigh. Maybe someone with too much time could post updates on Twins in the Winter leagues!
  4. caninatl04
    Managing the 5th starter slot this year with be a very important, and very tricky balancing act. On the one hand, a start by the #5 starter counts the same in the win / loss column. On the other hand, it is possible that only 1 of the current 1-4 starters will be around in 2020. So, that 5th starter spot may be valuable as "amateur night at the club" where the six AA/AAA/AAAA starters can audition.
  5. caninatl04
    Agreed! I wasn't 1 year deals per se, it was those particular 1 year deals. Who could have known at the time that each would regress? And it ended up turning into a few more decent prospects. For a team like the Twins, where there are expected to be some important promotions from the farm in each of 19, 20, 21 and 22, long term contracts might only serve to create traffic jams. Besides, if memory serves me correctly, they DID sign a RP to a longer term contract. How is THAT working out for them.
  6. caninatl04
    I think we've found our Twins Daily poet lauriate
  7. caninatl04
    I just want to point out that, per Bleacher Report, the Mariners have the worst farm system: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2794480-re-ranking-all-30-mlb-farm-systems-at-the-end-of-2018-milb-season So, if their fire sale continues, the Twins would be a good partner.
  8. caninatl04
    First off, thank you for the article and the clarification that these contracts are not guaranteed. I am not a big fan of Grossman by any means, but, in general, what's the "cost" of tendering even a marginal player? I'm thinking its a cheap option. Once the arbitration is settled, one could try to trade the player or cut him. Might the cost be a 40-man spot?
  9. caninatl04
    My few thoughts: Putting Romero in the pen / closer in 2019 does NOT preclude moving him to starter in 2020 or beyond. The need for starter is less in 2019 that beyond. For similar reasons, keep Rodgers in the bullpen for 2019 and reevaluate pre-2020. As for Austudillo, with the increasing use of a 13 man pitching staff, and the use of a DH in the AL, many games will be played with a 3-man bench. His flexibility as a starter or bench will be invaluable. Just one example: one some days, Garver can start a 1B and Austudillo can back up at catcher. Or he can start at 3B and Sano can DH.
  10. caninatl04
    Maybe someone who knows could answer this: assume the Twins decide to tender him an arbitration offer and after the counter-offers etc., it does, indeed, come in at $5 million. Is this guaranteed? For the whole season? If the Twins cut him before spring training? During? After?
  11. caninatl04
    So, which two minor leaguers will the Twins get for him in August?
  12. caninatl04
    Last year he struck out at a 29% clip. Over his career, 24.6%.
  13. caninatl04
    Over at FanGraphs, Craig Edwards both ranked and put a dollar value on all the farm systems across baseball. The Twins slotted in at seventh behind only the Padres, Braves, White Sox, Rays, Blue Jays and Reds. I took a close look at this. It is interesting that this site values 50-level players by quite a bit. I guess I would have placed higher weights on 60-level players.
  14. caninatl04
    Your intuition is backed up by statistics. It turns out that the single measure that is most highly correlated with wins looks like OBP + 1/2 ISP. If one thinks about "weights", a walk is worth about 0.9, a single = 1, a double = 1.4, a triple = 1.7 and a HR is worth 2. I know it seems strange at first. What would one rather have: one HR (worth 2) or 2 singles (also worth 2)? But its what the stats say!
  15. caninatl04
    Where are our Superstars? We should have one or two by now. One should be seeing a shrink in Georgia while another should be attending Jenny Craig in the DR.
  16. caninatl04
  17. caninatl04
    I expect much criticism for this, but based on a very small sample size, I think the new FO team has improved in many of these areas. To wit: Trades: Although there were few last off-season, I do like the August trades. I think we got at least fair value. Draft: I think I am far from alone in liking the results (so far) from that last two drafts. International: They did well with their money and they picked up some good talent from the Braves' fiasco. Free Agents: Nope, they didn't work out. But in March of 2018, how many of us liked the moves? If there is one area where the team has continued to fail, its development (Bux and Sano especially, but also SP). I know this is more about the FO than the Pohlads, but I'm so far in favor.
  18. caninatl04
    Co-incidentally, I just got back from a week in PHX. There was much talk of a Goldschmidt trade, but locally, the Twins were never mentioned.
  19. caninatl04
    "when the gales of November came early" Don't you think it would be intimidating to any visiting club if, instead of America the Beautiful, the Twin had Gordon Lightfoot sing a song letting them know that on a lake, not an ocean, but a lake, well, its Minnesota.
  20. caninatl04
    My two cents. When it came to Joe, we never heard: Drugs, Hookers, Domestic Violence, PEDs, "Vehicular Incidences" (Sano and Randy Moss) Trade Demands Assault at a Night Club at 3 am. Going 135 mph the wrong way on I-35. Nothing but class.
  21. caninatl04
    Here are two thoughts. First, I hope we don't hear "rumors / rumblings" 14 months from now that he's considering returning. Maybe 1 in 20 of those turn out well. Second, and much more positive, I hope we hear that Joe has been signed as a marketing executive with the Twins or (my better wish) a roving instructor teaching hitting and defense.
  22. caninatl04
    Baseball America shared its Twins draft report card. Oops: Premium subscription required.
  23. caninatl04
    Lots to unpack in this article. When it comes to wins and offense. The statistic that is always the highest correlated is OBP. This is the first thing Billy Bean brought to Moneyball. By far, the best measure is something called adjusted batting average. A close approximation would be OBP + (1/2) ISP. The shortcoming of SLG is that it treats, and I know you know this, a double as twice as valuable as a single, a triple as three times and a home run as four times as valuable as a single. It turns out, based on numbers that the loadings should not be 1, 2, 3, and 4, but more like 1, 1.3, 1.6 and 2. Also, a Walk is worth just under 1.
  24. caninatl04
    I just want to re-introduce my ideas. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/31673-roberto-osuna-and-a-high-a-closer-for-2019/
  25. caninatl04
    I think, which means I am probably wrong, Plan B is the list of great prospects with arrival dates 2020-2023.
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