nicksaviking

In the comments there were some discussions that I replied to with the statement that baseball is an individual game played as a team sport. I thought it might be worth exploring.
 
Start with the Pitcher and Batter. It is true that the catcher is a third wheel in this conversation. While the batter is concentrating and the Pitcher is dealing the other players must wait, watch and react. They are not part of the play until the ball is hit. If it is a homerun, they are no factor, if the result is a walk there is no team involvement, if it is a strikeout, only the catcher participates. This Washington Post story indicates that batters strike out 22.6 percent of the time this year https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/05/04/mlb-batters-are-recording-more-strikeouts-than-hits-thats-a-big-problem-thats-unlikely-to-soon-change/?utm_term=.217f7a6331e3 That means that the team gets involved 78% of the time.
 
In one 2013 study they said that 68% of pitches are hit (I think that has changed a lot) but even is it is true, that means 32% of the time no one has anything to do except for the catcher to toss the ball back to the pitcher. http://www.highheatstats.com/2013/05/fraction-of-balls-put-in-play-is-at-an-all-time-low/
 
If it is a fly out - one non pitcher is involved, if it is a Home Run we cannot credit team work to those who watch it go over the fence. With increased launch angle and increased use of infield shifts the flyball has been increasing. Typically it is just one outfielder, unless there is a lack of communications.
 
A ground ball out is high on teamwork - usually two or more players are involved and with runners on base the intensity increases. Ground ball pitchers definitely require a higher teamwork percent. And double and triple plays ratchet up the teamwork.
 
Fangraphs says that balls hit are on average 21% line drive (one fielder) 44% ground balls, multiple players, 35% Fly balls (one fielder) and 11% infield flies (one player). https://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/batted-ball/
 
If I assume that 22% are strikeouts and 78% are put in play and 44% of them are ground balls (34% of the total) the remainder are individual flyball experiences. My team work formula would put the majority of the plays into 2 player situations (taking strikeouts as a catcher/pitcher combo).
 
So flip the player to offense. Batting is about as individual as you can get unless the previous player set you up for an intentional walk. Sure we can have those smart at bats that take a lot of pitches and wear down the opposition and bring in the heat throwing relievers, we can have a sacrifice to put the runner in scoring position or a stolen base, but most of the time it is just throw and hit. I give offensive baseball an even lower team work quotient.
 
This reflects on the overall importance of the manager too. Put the right players in at the right position and quess who will be the most effective batters and relief pitchers and the job is done.
 
This quote captures some of the essence of the individual experience of the game - Baseball is a team game but, at the same time, it's a very lonely game: unlike in soccer or basketball, where players roam around, in baseball everyone has their little plot of the field to tend. When the action comes to you, the spotlight is on you but no one can help you. Chad Harbach
Read more at:
 
The Author of Group Genius - Dr R. Keith Sawyer says - "A baseball team doesn’t look like an improvising group, and frankly, doesn’t look much like a business team either. The reason is that in baseball, each team member’s contributions are relatively independent. As Pete Rose once said, “Baseball is a team game, but nine men who reach their individual goals make a nice team.” It’s rare that more than one player is involved in a play. More than just about any other team sport, the overall performance of the team is additive." https://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-r-keith-sawyer/is-baseball-really-a-team_b_50071.html
 
Peter Gammons in an excellent essay says "Unfortunately, the sad reality is that once a player starts his Minor League career, the game really changes. Minor league rosters change daily, with players being called up, sent down, as well as released. It is highly unlikely to play with a teammate for 3-4 years like in college, which only adds to the lack of the team game.
"Players become far more interested in their personal performance, than the performance of the team. While it is always more fun when the team wins, winning takes a back door to personal statistics as players are working towards individual promotions and making their way up the Minor League ranks, with the hopes of one day cracking a Major League roster.
"Front Office and Player Development personnel also take valuing personal performance over team performance in Minor League Baseball. They are far more concerned with the development of a young prospect who could one day make a big impact with the Major League Club, than whether their Single-A or Double-A affiliate is going to compete for the playoffs." http://www.gammonsdaily.com/baseball-is-it-a-team-game/
 
In 2017 Mookie Betts had the most put outs by a right fielder - 366. For a 162 game season if all games go 9 innings each team records 4374 outs. He recorded .08% of the teams outs. For most of the other 92 he was backing up or watching. And CFs on average handle 15 - 30 more outs per year. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-fielding-leaders.shtml
 
A final thought - how many players negotiate on the basis of their teamwork?

I happened upon this nice leaping stab by Polanco from a few days ago:
 
https://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2018/07/03/2224124283/1530583378940/asset_2500K.mp4
 
Question: on a ball hit to the left side, does Brian Dozier have anything better to do than make a beeline for second base, on the small chance it's caught and they might try to double off the runner? The runner has to change direction, Dozier could have been close to full speed by that point. Seems like he was napping there.

When I was growing up, I thought Dick and Bert were awesome. They had the fun “Circle me Bert” shtick, seemingly great rapport with each other, and good timing on bringing excitement to the game. But, I was young - I didn’t know any better. This season is the first summer I’ve enjoyed diving into statistical truths in baseball. I think the analytical trend in the game has not been kind to our FSN announcing crew. It’s made them both increasingly bitter and more frequently inaccurate. Starting in April, I decided to make a list of falsehoods uttered by FSN contributors. I’ve come up with my top 5 at the midway point in the year, but hope many are added in the comments section below
 
1. Jack Morris claims you can’t measure spin rate.
 
This one was an absolute doozy and I believe almost every Twins Daily writer picked up on it and commented on it on Twitter. Jack claimed during a game that he didn’t think it was possible to accurately calculate the spin rate of either a batted ball or a pitch. This is on par with somebody saying they just don’t “believe” in climate change. Ridiculous.
 
2. Bert Blyleven compares Jake Odorizzi to Brad Radke multiple times
 
This is the one that kicked off this project. I could be mistaken, but I believe it was first in Odorizzi’s second start that Bert mentioned how similar he was to Radke. My immediate reaction was to look up prevalence of free passes in both players’ careers. Odorizzi has a career BB/9 of 3.1 (4.1 in 2018 so far). Now, this isn’t a ridiculously high number, but let’s compare in Radke’s career BB/9 – 1.6. Radke was a master of control; it was beautiful to watch. In 2005, in 200.2 IP, he only had 23 walks. Maybe he meant both pitchers were American and 6 feet, 2 inches tall, but I doubt it.
 
3. Torii Hunter has a strange take on launch angles.
 
This one was admittedly rather hilarious. Parker Hageman and Aaron Gleeman called my attention to it as I missed it live. Here is the quote: “Like I said, the launch angle is good for some people, but I think everybody can’t hit with the launch angle,” said Hunter. “I heard [Toronto Blue Jays third baseman] Josh Donaldson say he launches the ball. If you look at his swing, it really has no launch. It actually goes through the ball, and then it launches actually through the ball. But you can’t go after it with the launch.”
 
This isn’t even Torii’s hottest take in the world of sports. He once said (as a player for the Tigers) “But I can tell you this, I made love to my wife the other night and I caught a cramp in my hamstring. I actually put my leg out and kept performing. So there’s no excuse,” in response to Lebron James suffering cramps in the NBA Finals. Torii Hunter is one of my favorites and I enjoy having him on the broadcast, but seriously?
 
4. Bert Blyleven says Fernando Rodney doesn’t give a lot of free passes.
 
Just this last Monday against the Royals, Rodney was in to save a nice win for the Twins. During Rodney’s appearance (I believe on a 3-0 count), Bert blurted out that Rodney “doesn’t walk a lot of people.” Huh? Even to people who don’t check stats, Rodney has a reputation of making things interesting in save situations by walking batters. In fact, his career BB/9 is 4.4…definitely not a low walk rate.
 
5. Tim Laudner yells at the rulebook.
 
Now, I will admit this isn’t a falsehood. He just has a strong opinion on the rule change dealing with catchers and how they block the plate. The issue came up with Anthony Rizzo sliding and clipping the leg of Pirates’ catcher Austin Hedges. I included this on the list for two reasons: 1) it was hilarious how mad he got and 2) it goes with the theme of ex-players at FSN that can’t seem to progress with the times. It got to the point on Twins Live that Laudner was essentially getting worked up looking at the rule on a piece and paper and saying what a disgrace the change has been. We understand you’re mad, but calm down. The rules aren’t going to go back, so just accept.
Honorable Mention: Tim Laudner says the Twins swept a “very good” Orioles team

I don’t even need to say anything about this, do I?
 
Thus concludes my top 5 falsehood list. I hope you’ve gotten a kick out of our broadcast crew. For all the falsehoods, they are pretty good contributors and I enjoy the comparisons and theories every once in a while. Plus, we always have Cory Provus on play-by-play on the radio, and the occasional appearance of Justin Morneau in the TV booth (the eventual dream team, I hope).
 
What are some of your favorite contributions from our FSN crew? Let me know in the comments below!
 
-Miles

After the Cedar Rapids Kernels finished batting practice on a warm, humid July 4 afternoon, two of the most productive players on their roster agreed to sit down and talk about the season.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/GoreDobnak070418-600x400.jpg
Jordan Gore and Randy Dobnak go through Kernels pre-game workouts on July 4, 2018 (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
One, an infielder, has been hitting over .300 with an on-base percentage around .400 virtually all season. (And three days after the interview, his bags were packed for Chattanooga, where he’d been promoted to join former Kernels manager Tommy Watkins’ Lookouts.)
 
The other, a starting pitcher, is 6-2 on the season and leads the Kernels in innings pitched.
 
Unless you’re a pretty serious student of the Minnesota Twins’ minor league system or a Kernels season ticket holder, there’s a chance you’ve never heard of either of them.
 
Jordan Gore was selected by the Twins out of Coastal Carolina in the 17th round of the 2017 draft and Randy Dobnak never got a post-draft call at all after completing his college career at Alderson Broaddus University in West Virginia. They made the most of their college days on and off the field, both making the Dean’s List regularly at their respective schools.
 
Gore started his college career at South Carolina before transferring to Coastal Carolina in his hometown of Conway, SC, where he underwent Tommy John surgery and ended up sitting out the Chanticleers’ NCAA championship season in 2016. Having to sit out that championship season wasn’t as tough for Gore as one might think.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Gore062418a-600x400.jpg
Jordan Gore (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
“Honestly you can say so,” Gore said, “but I’ve said this time and time again. That was best group of guys that I've ever been around as far as pulling for each other, working hard, all around good personalities and good people. It was probably better for me to sit back and watch how they did it. They taught me a lot about how to play the game the right way.
 
“I’ve got nothing but love for everybody at Coastal. I tell you what, it made me a lot better person and a player.”
 
Dobnak pitched for Alderson Broadus University in Philippi, West Virginia, where he had a career 26-12 record and set a Great Midwest Athletic Conference record with 284 career strikeouts.
 
You wouldn’t fault Gore, a shortstop by trade, if he had been more than a little troubled by the fact that he was drafted by an organization that also used the first overall pick of the 2017 draft to select a guy who plays the same position. But Gore says he wasn’t concerned at all at the prospect of trying to work his way up through the Twins farm system virtually in tandem with top prospect Royce Lewis.
 
“Honestly, I was just happy to get the call because after my last (college) game it kind of hit me, man this could be the last time I lace my spikes up,” Gore said, concerning his draft position, “and Royce is a great guy. It’s great to be playing with him. It’s a lot of fun.”
 
Gore didn’t exactly follow the draft moment by moment, waiting to hear his name called, but admits being relieved when it was over.
 
“I tried to keep my mind off of it,” he recalled. “I tried to just stay away from thinking about it too much. When I finally did get the call, it was a lot off my shoulders because you can try not to think about it as much as you want, but it's always going to be there.”
 
While Gore had to be patient on draft day, Dobnak wasn’t all that surprised that he didn’t get a call when the draft had been completed.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Dobnak062718a-600x400.jpg
Randy Dobnak (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
“Being in the mountains of West Virginia, there were a few teams that were talking to me or my coaches,” he explained. “But when they’d try and come see me play, we’d get rained out, snowed out. too cold. So, I didn’t really know what to expect (on draft day).”
 
Not being drafted didn’t mean Dobnak was ready to call it a career, however. He used a connection made in his freshman year of college to land a spot on the pitching staff of the Utica Unicorns, an independent minor league team in a four-team league about an hour outside Detroit, Michigan.
 
“I played there for like a month. I had played with (the manager’s) son. He was my catcher my freshmen and sophomore year (of college). After a freshman year tournament, we were all out to eat and his dad was like, ‘I want you come play for my team once you graduate.’ Three years later, I'm like, 'Alright, let's do this thing.'”
 
A few weeks later, he signed with the Twins and he spent the rest of last summer in Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids.
 
Dobnak put up a combined ERA of 2.43 and a WHIP of 0.96 in six appearances (four as a starter) at the two 2017 stops and has followed that up with a very solid first three months with the Kernels this summer. In 14 appearances (11 of them as a starter), he has a 3.74 ERA and has struck out 49 batters, while walking just 13.
 
He has averaged seven innings of work in his last five starts for the Kernels.
 
At the time of his promotion to Chattanooga on July 7, Gore was hitting .307 with a solid .770 OPS and had a .333 average and 1.044 OPS in the month of July. While splitting infield time with Royce Lewis, Andrew Bechtold and Jose Miranda, Gore has made 33 appearances at second base, 23 at shortstop, five at third base and even made one late-game mop up appearance on the mound for Cedar Rapids.
 
On a team seemingly filled with very young talent, Gore and Dobnak have stood out as 23-year-olds and their manager, Toby Gardenhire, has appreciated the level of effort and leadership they’ve brough to the field, as well as the clubhouse.
 
“He’s been great,” the manager said of Dobnak. “He grabs the ball and goes out there and does whatever you want him to do. He works really hard every day, shows up ready to go. He's the epitome of the guy that you want on your team. He doesn't say much, he just goes out there and does his job every day.
 
“His skill level has been great, he's done a great job, but the big thing for us is that he's very professional with everything that he does. When you have this many young guys on a team like we do that you're trying to teach how to be professionals, then you need guys like him where you can say, ‘Hey you see how Dobnak does this? You see what he does? You see how he goes about his business? That's the way it needs to be. That's how you have to act.’
 
“So, aside from the fact that he's doing great, which is all credit to him and how hard he works, he's just a great person. He's a great leader for us.”
 
Gardenhire offered a similar strong endorsement for Gore.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Gore070418a-600x400.jpg
Jordan Gore (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
“Gore’s the same way,” his manager said. “He's ‘game on.’ He's funny, but the way he goes about his business, the way he goes out and gets it every day - when you put him in the lineup, you know what you're going to get from him. You’re going to get effort. Dives all over the place and will do anything to win baseball games.
 
“You would think that with baseball players in professional baseball, you're going to have a whole group of guys that just want to try to win games, that will do anything for the team, but it's not always like that. That's a taught trait. You either have something in you that says ‘Hey, I'll do whatever it takes to win this game' or you have to learn that. He's one of those guys, he just has it. That’s what he wants. He wants to win and he'll do anything.
 
“I always call those guys dirtballs. He's driving all over the place. You're not going to see him with his uniform clean for very long in a game. That's one of those things, again, when you have a whole bunch of young talented guys like we have, to have a guy like that who shows them the way. They see him diving all over the place. He's mad when we lose and he gets fired up. They see that and it starts to kind of rub off on them. That's what you want.”
 
A couple of relatively unheralded players on a team stocked with highly-regarded younger prospects could be forgiven if they felt some pressure to perform well enough to get noticed by their front office, but neither Gore nor Dobnak sounded like that was the case for them.
 
“I don't think it's pressure,” Gore said. “Speaking for myself, I come out here and want to work hard. This is fun for us! I mean it’s the best job in the world, right?
 
“Yep,” concurred Dobnak.
 
“I mean, come on, who wouldn’t want to come out here and work hard?” asked Gore, “because when you work hard, you tend to play well. It makes it a lot more fun.”
 
Neither player is concerning himself too much with what’s going on with the Twins’ affiliates at the higher levels, however.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Dobnak070418a-400x600.jpg
Randy Dobnak (Photo by SD Buhr)
 
“I check out the scores and see how some of the guys I know are doing,” conceded Dobnak. “I just think if you prove to your coaches or front office that you’re good enough to move up, they’ll move you up. But all the guys, they work hard. They all work the same. You go out there and do whatever you’ve got to do. Compete.”
 
“I try not to think about (promotions), I’ll be honest with you,” said Gore. “I’m around a great bunch of guys every day and it’s a lot of fun. It doesn’t really pop into your head much. We’re just out here trying to win and we’ve been doing that here lately."
 
Given that Gore earned a promotion three days after those comments, his approach obviously worked for him.
 
One thing that comes through in virtually every conversation you have with any of this group of Kernels is how much they enjoy their teammates. It’s a close group, but even in the tightest of clubhouses, there will be differences. Gore and Dobnak are not completely in agreement in one aspect of the game.
 
Dobnak’s Twitter profile includes a reference to the hashtag #BanTheDH. Gore doesn’t sound ready to give away the at-bats he gets on days he DHs.
 
“Let the pitchers hit,” said Dobnak.
 
And why? “Because it’s more fun for the pitchers. When you grow up, you pitch, you hit, you play the infield!”
 
It’s all about the pitchers, right Jordan?
 
“No offense to the pitchers out there, but you’re probably giving up an out every time,” a smiling Gore responded.
“I'm just kidding,” the professional hitter in the conversation added. “We've got a lot of good athletes on the (pitching staff), I’m sure they could probably pick up a stick and hit it.”
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)

Yesterday a picture was leaked of a napkin left at an Applebees in Santa Monica, California, last month while the Twins were visiting the Los Angeles Angels. The napkin was left there inadvertently by, reportedly, Twins Major League Coach Jeff Pickler who was dining at the restaurant with other members of the Twins coaching staff.
 
The napkin had pictured, among other things, sketches of proposed fielding alignments. Some of the alignments were titled “Ryan Suter,” “Mexico,” and “Mauer.”
 
 
Jeff Pickler was hired during the 2016-2017 offseason by the Minnesota Twins as a coach to help with various aspects of the Twins at the major league level, but most notably by studying tapes and determining outfielder positioning for a talented trio which included Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler to start the season.
 
The Applebees server, who requested to be left anonymous, stated that Pickler “Seemed like a nice guy…” but was “a crappy tipper” and “deserves to have his strategies exposed.”
 
One anonymous bench coach for a Major League Baseball team commented, “These are ****ing stupid. Except for the Mauer one. We’ll probably use that one.”
 
Shown below are graphics for the various shifts sketched on the discovered napkin:
 
"Ryan Suter"
 

 
"Sieve"
 

 
"T-ball"
 

 
"Mauer"
 

 
"Mexico"
 

 
"Broadcast Interview"
 

 
"Chris Davis"
 

 
"Batman"
 

 
Twins coach Jeff Pickler could not be reached for comment for this article.

By now, most of us have noticed how Matt Magill has been a solid arm in the Twins bullpen this season. He made his first appearance of 2018 in a clunker of a game (which I attended ) on April 29th against the Cincinnati Reds. He threw 2.1 innings that Sunday and gave up just 3 hits and 0 earned runs, adding 2 punch-outs as well. So far this year with the Twins, he’s given up a total of 3 ER over 23.2 IP, for an ERA of 1.14.
Magill was drafted in 2008 in the 31st round to the Los Angeles Dodgers. He had two briefs stints in the majors with both the L.A. Dodgers (2013) and the Cincinnati Reds (2016) before joining the Minnesota Twins (2018). During that time, he had ERA’s of 6.51 and 6.23 respectively. He’s clearly been around for a while; so why the recent success on the bump?
In my mind, there’s two simple reasons:
He’s throwing more strikes:In 2013 as a starting pitcher, Magill gave 28 free passes in 27.2 IP (BB/9 = 9.11 – ouch.)
In 2016 as a relief pitcher, he had a BB/9 of 10.38 in just 4.1 IP
Now, in 2018, he currently holds a BB/9 of 1.3 – and that is fun to watch

[*]His stuff is a lot better:
His fastball velocity has an average of 95.1 MPH so far in 2018, compare that to 93.1 MPH in 2016, and 91.8 MPH in 2013.
He’s getting more movement on both his 4-seam fastball, and his “cutter” or hard slider. Check out the charts from FanGraphs below on the horizontal movement for Magill's pitches (2018 first, 2016 second). For your reference, a positive value on horizontal movement means the ball will be moving away from a right-handed hitter, and therefore a negative value means the ball is tailing in on a righty.



 




 
Clearly, in 2018 he’s getting more movement on that cut fastball (FC), slightly more run in on the righties, and again more velocity with the 4-seamer (FA). This could be a contributing factor to why he's been so effective this season at producing weak contact (.219 BABIP - Nice!).
 
Check out the vertical movement below (2018 first, 2016 second):
 




 
Again, the notable difference is with the cut fastball (FC).
Magill is throwing the ball over the plate, and he has increased his velocity considerably, while getting more movement on his cutter. This is a recipe for continued success and I believe it’s time for Molitor to start utilizing him in higher leverage spots. Can somebody explain to me why he hasn’t gotten this chance yet?
Let me know what you think in the comments!
-Miles

https://www.loc.gov/item/prn-18-036/?loclr=eanotw The library of Congress has given us a historical gift - the scouting reports of Branch Rickey. He was a vital part of baseball history, even beyond signing Jackie Robinson and this is where you can check it out.
 
Here are some notes from the introduction and entries that struck me:
Rickey’s 1963 scouting report on Hank Aaron, who broke Babe Ruth’s long-standing home run record of 714 in 1974. Rickey wrote "Surely one of the greatest hitters in baseball today. Can hit late with power, - good wrists. But in spite of his hitting record and admitted power ability, one cannot help think that Aaron is frequently a guess hitter."
A 1955 scouting report on Roberto Clemente, who amassed 3,000 hits in his Hall of Fame career for the Pittsburgh Pirates
A report dated March 30-31, 1964, on future National Basketball Association great Dave DeBusschere, where Rickey predicted that DeBusschere “should become a corking good major league pitcher.”
For Hall of Famer Bob Gibson, Rickey noted on March 14, 1964, “when trying out young players… scouts and coaches would keep in mind Bob Gibson as a model for comparison and rate the prospect’s stuff accordingly.”
About Richie Allen - “Rollie Hemsley at Indianapolis, Bill Adair at Toronto, Larry Shepard at Columbus, Kerby Farrell at Buffalo and Harry Walker at Atlanta all believe that outfielder Allen is the best major league prospect in the International League. A colored boy, very young, and belongs to Philadelphia. He has extraordinary power to all fields. Arm not great, but adequate. Highly desirable in any deal with Philadelphia. I am sorry not to have been able to see this boy in action, but rating give to the player by baseball men generally put him immediately as a regular in any major league outfield. I would risk a heavy deal to have the Cardinals Get this player.”
Minnesotan Twins 2B Bernie Allen – “Tall boy from Purdue. Left hand hitter, has power and I believe he can outrun Rollins. I doubt if he is a .300 hitter. Hit .269 in 1962, Not hitting a lick this year…”
Bob Allison – “A 275 hitter with exceptional power. Looks the part of a great athlete. Right hander all the way. He has everything it takes to be a long time major league regular.”
Earl Battey – “A big colored catcher. Looks overweight, but has a remarkable action. Quick and has power at the plate, plenty of it. Looks like he likes to play. I can imagine him in a World Series.”
Minnesota born, Yankee – John Blanchard – “If Blanchard’s habits were good and his team relationship satisfactory, St Louis could use him. I would not take him unless I were permitted to have a conversation with the player with results satisfactory to myself.”
Harmon Killebrew – “A big right hand hitter with as much distance power as any man in the game. Strikes out a great deal. I would not be interested in obtaining his contract in any kind of possible trade. I don’t want him at the price.”

 
It will take a lot of time to sort out everything, but this is a very personal glimpse into the game in the early 60's.

It is no question that the Twins top priority this offseason remains on signing free agent Yu Darvish. However, as the season nears, they may need to shift their focus towards an alternative option to fill an open spot in their rotation, especially now that Ervin Santana is expected to miss the first month of the season after having surgery on the middle finger on his right hand.
 
There is a lot of speculation that the Twins will sign one of the other remaining free agent starters if they fail to land Darvish. While many of the available starters are quality pitchers, there isn’t a lot of long term upside to any of them, as they are all on the wrong side of 30.
 
Another option that the Twins have to bolster their rotation would be through a trade. One pitcher many people have speculated about this offseason is Chris Archer. While Archer would be a great addition for the Twins, he will cost them a fortune in terms of prospects. However, there are other pitchers out there on the trade market that the Twins could go after, and one very intriguing pitcher that nobody has been talking about this winter is Atlanta Braves starter Julio Teheran.
 
Teheran has spent parts of seven seasons pitching for the Braves, but despite that, he just turned 27 in January. On his contract, Teheran still has 2 years and $19M guaranteed, with a third-year team option for $12M. This means that if the Twins trade for Teheran, they will control him during his prime for a lot less money than it would take to sign either Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn.
 
Even though Teheran hasn’t been seriously linked to any trade discussions this offseason, there was a lot of talk before the trade deadline last July about the Braves interest in trading him. Moving Teheran would make a lot of sense for Atlanta, as they are a team that is still a year or two away from contention and could add to their already deep farm system.
 
For the Twins, Julio Teheran would be an ideal candidate to slide into their rotation. Teheran has shown that he is durable, as he has pitched at least 185 innings in every season since he became a full-time starter in 2013. He has done this all to the tune of a career 3.59 ERA.
 
One down side to Teheran is he is coming off a bad 2017, where he posted a career worst 4.49 ERA, and a disheartening 4.96 xFIP. The biggest reason for this drop in performance was his increased walk rate, which jumped up to 3.44 BB/9. From the chart below, you can see that Teheran’s control seems to be the driving factor in his production.
 
 


 
As you can see, if Teheran can control his walk rate he has the ability to be a front of the rotation starter for the Twins. One promising note is, despite the high walk rate, Teheran’s strike percentage didn’t seem to drop off all that much in 2017, as it did in 2015. This is a good sign that perhaps Teheran hasn’t suddenly lost his command, and that he could easily bounce back to form in 2018.
 
When diving into Teheran’s Statcast numbers, there is some more reason to be optimistic that he will bounce back in 2018. Teheran did a good job last season at not allowing hard contact, by posting an average exit velocity against of 86.3 MPH. This ranked just ahead of pitchers like Chris Sale, Zack Greinke and Carlos Martinez who were all at 86.4 MPH.
 
In 2017, Teheran fell victim to pitching in front of the terrible Atlanta Braves defense. Last season, the Braves ranked 27th in Major League Baseball with -43 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). A move to the Twins, who had +17 DRS last year, would be a big upgrade for Teheran.
 
A big portion of that upgrade would be in the outfield, where the Braves finished 2017 with -7 Outs Above Average (OAA), while the Twins finished with +31 OAA. This plays right into Teheran’s hands, as he had the 14th highest flyball rate among qualified starters last season.
 
This poor defense by the Braves goes a long way in explaining why Julio Teheran allowed a 0.334 wOBA last season (0.321 was MLB average), despite his xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base Average) of 0.318.
 
With Teheran coming off of a down season, the Twins will have an opportunity to buy low on a pitcher that has the upside to become the Twins #2 starter, just as he is entering his prime. If he is not able to return to his pre-2017 form, and continues his struggles with his command, Teheran will most likely slot somewhere in the middle or back of the Twins’ rotation.
 
In either scenario, Teheran would bring the Twins an element of much needed depth to the starting rotation, and could potentially prevent the front office from being forced into calling up one of the prospects before they feel that they are ready.

This offseason has been nothing short of unprecedented. It started with the 23-year-old sensation Shohei Ohtani deciding to leave Japan for the MLB, two years before he was eligible to sign without the International Free Agency restrictions. Then it was followed up with two months of absolute standstill for many of the top free agents. So, how could this season’s free agent market potentially cause Yu Darvish to sign for a lot less money than the six years and $160MM that MLB Trade Rumors had originally predicted? Let’s take a look.
 
In years past, the available marquee free agents were almost exclusively signed by the richest teams in baseball. In fact, 9 of the 20 richest contracts in MLB history were signed by either the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox. However, as MLB front offices are starting to get smarter, they are starting to learn that these big time free agent contracts are almost never worth it in the long run. As a result, teams are starting to shift their focus towards lower tier free agents that they can sign to short term, and more reasonably priced contracts, like relievers.
 
Another factor that will cause Darvish’s value to drop is the luxury-tax system. While MLB does not have salary cap like many other U.S. sports leagues do, they do have a luxury-tax that disincentivizes teams from spending frivolous amounts of money on free agents. As teams go further and further above the luxury-tax threshold, and as the number of years they spend above the threshold increases, so to does the amount that the teams are taxed. This is causing many of the top spending teams, who have spent the last few years above the luxury-tax threshold, to want to cut back on spending and get below it in 2018. As a result, these teams are choosing to take a pass on players like Darvish.
 
Major League Baseball has seen a stretch of extreme parity over the past half-decade, with 26 of the 30 teams having made a playoff appearance since 2011, along with traditional bottom dwellers, like the Royals, becoming World Series contenders. However, over the past year or two, the MLB has seen a real shift from a league filled with parity, to apparent “super teams” atop each division. The reasons for this are many, and I won’t go into details why in this post. So how does all of this impact Yu Darvish? Well, I have already touched on why many of the teams at the top aren’t looking to add Darvish, but now with this power separation, many teams are opting to go with a rebuilding strategy as opposed to signing free agents. This takes even more teams out of the running, that might have otherwise made a run at competing in 2018, and thus looking to sign Darvish.
 
So, who does this all leave that would be interested in signing Darvish? Well, it was reported that Yu Darvish has narrowed his list of teams down to six. These teams are the Rangers, Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and of course the Twins.
 
Let’s look at the five other teams remaining that are competing with the Twins for Yu Darvish’s services. Saturday night, the Astros made a trade to acquire Pirates starter Gerrit Cole. With this move, it all but fills out the Astros’ rotation with Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Lance McCullers Jr. as their 1-4, followed by quality starters in Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh competing for the 5th spot. This all but takes them out of the running for Yu Darvish.
 
Additionally, the Dodgers and Yankees are teams that are looking to stay below the $197MM luxury-tax threshold in 2018. As it stands, their projected 2018 salaries are $191MM and $172MM respectively. This means that signing Darvish will put the Dodgers well beyond the luxury-tax, and limits the Yankees to less than $25MM in average annual value (AAV) on Darvish’s contract in order to stay below. Doing so would leave the Yankees with no margin to play with if they need to sign or trade for another player throughout the season, which means they are probably out unless his value drops down below $20MM in AAV. The Rangers are also a team that have said that they are looking to cut payroll in 2018. While their motives to do so might not be luxury-tax related, their desire to do so makes it hard to see Darvish making a reunion with the team that originally signed him out of Japan in 2012.
 
This just leaves the Chicago Cubs, who are looking to replace 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta. The Cubs have also expressed an interest in staying below the luxury-tax, but given their roughly $30MM in space to work with, and the fact that they were below the luxury-tax in 2017, their incentives to stay below aren’t as great as the Dodgers and Yankees are. This most likely makes the Cubs the greatest competition that the Twins have for Darvish. While the Cubs could easily get into a bidding war with the Twins, and push his salary closer to the $30MM AAV range, I don’t see them doing so for a couple of reasons. The first is this would leave them with little to no room to work with in 2018 for any other additions if they wish to stay below the luxury-tax. The second, is they have shown interest in a potential reunion with Arrieta. If the price for Darvish gets too high, they could easily put their focus on bringing back Arrieta.
 
With all of that being said, this is great news for the Twins. Not only does it increase their chances of actually signing Yu Darvish, but they might be able to do so without having to break the bank. There is also a slight chance that they might be able to land Darvish on a five-year deal as opposed to a six or seven-year deal. This would be great for the Twins, as he would come off of the Twins books after his age 35 season. In the end, I see Darvish signing either a five or six-year deal, in the $115MM-$135MM range, a far cry from the six years and $160MM that was originally projected.

As things stand, the Minnesota Twins have made two moves regarding their bullpen this offseason. In signing both Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke to one-year deals, they bring in proven veterans with skills in all the right places for the Twins. It seems Derek Falvey and Thad Levine sent a message in their relief acquisitions, and looking back to 2017, it is one that should be well received.
 
While teams have long since began venturing down the path of super bullpens, some of them go about it differently. At their peak, the Kansas City Royals seemed to do it more organically, while the Cleveland Indians moved some pieces around, and the current Colorado Rockies just threw money at everyone with a pulse. The idea that a start can be shortened through a strong bullpen is a good one, but it isn't a band-aid that can be applied to every organization.
 
For Minnesota, the reality is that both the starting pitching and relief staff needed work. With the cost of acquiring a starter being what it is, spending top dollar on a minimal impact role like a reliever is a tough ask. Instead, the Twins got creative by targeting high strikeout guys with strong track records. On top of that, they did so without much potential for negative repercussions considering the length and terms of each deal.
 
Where this story starts though, is at the beginning. Looking back to 2017, it's hard not to see Paul Molitor and his staff in a much better place when having to deploy relief help. There's no arguing that the Twins don't have an elite pen (or maybe even an above average one), but much improved is something they should have in spades.
 
On Opening Day of 2017, the Twins trotted Tyler Duffey, Michael Tonkin, Justin Haley, Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle, Brandon Kintzler, Craig Breslow, and Taylor Rogers out to the bullpen. Of that group, only three remain, and each of them should find a spot in the 2018 pen from the jump. Assuming Minnesota goes with seven relievers (after beginning with eight a year ago), I'd imagine the group consists of: Duffey, Rogers, Pressly, Trevor Hildenberger, Zach Duke, Alan Busenitz, and Fernando Rodney.
 
Looking at the holdovers, you have two guys that have the ability to pitch in high leverage. While Pressly is the velocity guy, Duffey worked as a closer in college. Both can put the ball past opposing hitters, and looking for K/9 rates above 8.0 should be a safe assumption. In Rogers, Molitor gets a guy that was tested in his second year, and showed he can get batters out on both sides of the plate. Moving more towards the middle innings, he can act more as the second lefty, and be somewhat of a specialist.
 
In categorizing the additions, the Twins have a lot of new weapons at their disposal. Despite his age, Rodney is still pumping fastballs in the upper 90's. Yes he walks batters, but over the course of a full season, it's hard not to see him being an asset. Duke returned from Tommy John in record time, and the biggest takeaway from 2017 for him was health. He's a year removed from a 10.0 K/9 with the bulk of the season spent in the AL Central. Hildenberger and Busenitz both stepped in huge down the stretch for Minnesota a season ago. The former looked the part of a potential closer, while the latter is another velocity arm (95.8mph) that should see the strikeouts rise.
 
Given that this group is relatively established, and there's a bit more depth behind them, the Twins can feel a bit more at ease about their current positioning. We've been waiting on top relief arms to surface for some time, but names like Hildenberger, Busenitz, and John Curtiss simply stepped up first. Should J.T. Chargois, Tyler Jay, and Jake Reed see their time come in 2018, the overall water level for the relief corps will only continue to rise.
 
At the end of the day, the Twins bullpen isn't going to wow anyone on paper. For fans who've followed the organization however, it looks like one of the better groups in quite some time, and one that speaks to a certain level of sustainability. It took some time to get away from the soft tossing aspect in relief, but that doesn't appear to be the plan of action for anyone (save for Duke) who will enter the field from behind the wall. It may all blow up when the action actually starts, but there's reason for optimism with the current collection to be sure.
 
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All the Hall of Fame ballots are postmarked. More than 100 have been revealed. Of those, only three voters have checked the name of the greatest pitcher I’ve ever regularly watched. Johan Santana’s time on the writers’ ballot looks to be short and unsuccessful.
Others have written compelling and thorough articles about Santana’s case. I’m mostly sad that he’s only 38 and we’re already having this discussion. I want to think about Santana at the height of his powers. I want to remember a game that still resonates with me more than a dozen years later.
It’s 2004. The Twins have won the Central the past two years and they’re in first place now. It’s Aug.1 and their lead is five games over the White Sox.
I’d graduated from college that spring and I’m lamenting the fact that I’m jobless, hours away from the Metrodome and with no money for a ticket anyway. Johan Santana is facing Pedro Martinez today.
But I do have cable television and it’s connected to my fiancée’s 13-inch TV/VCR combo. It’s the only TV we have in the apartment we rented when I was still optimistic about finding a decent job near Morris, Minnesota. I’d be back at home living with my dad in a matter of weeks.
But Santana was pitching this afternoon, so this afternoon things look bright.
After getting Johnny Damon to ground out and striking Mark Bellhorn, Orlando Cabrera hit a home run in the first.
Cabrera hadn’t been all that good that year. But Cabrera had just become a member of the Red Sox. Maybe the change of scenery would do him good. (It did. Cabrera hit .294/.320/.465 for the Red Sox that year after hitting .246/.298/.336 for the Expos.)
Cabrera started for the Red Sox for the first time that day after he and Doug Mientkiewicz joined the Sox earlier in a four-team trade that saw the Twins pick up 19-year-old minor-league pitcher Justin Jones from the Cubs.
Mientkiewicz’s departure was sad, as he joined A.J Pierzynski and Matt Lawton as players traded away after starting for the 2001 Twins team that sucked me back into baseball fandom.
The Twins had stopped grabbing my attention as the ‘90s often found them mired in last place and found me in a new town with new friends who weren’t all that interested in baseball. But the Twins found new life in 2001, and found me, now away at college, with some friends who gave a damn about a pennant race and with access to cable television.
Cristian Guzman reached on a single in the first but was stranded.
Santana retired three straight in the second, striking out Jason Veritek and Bill Mueller.
Corey Koskie doubled for the Twins in the bottom of the second and then scored on a Matthew LeCroy single. LeCroy was catching that day, with Joe Mauer’s rookie season mostly ruined by injury.
Mauer was the first Twins player I can say I followed from the day he was drafted onward, but Santana was the first player I really saw emerge and become a star.
Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones, Guzman, Koskie and Mientkiewicz burst onto the national scene in 2001, but as someone who was just paying attention for the first time in years, they felt a little more established. I knew they were young. I knew they were surprising, but they never existed for me as anything other than Twins starters.
But Santana was a reliever in 2001, and by this point in 2004 I’d watched him become the best pitcher in baseball.
Manny Ramirez homered in the second; the Twins were down 2-1.
That was the last hit Santana gave up that day, but while Martinez’s 2004 was not a great year by his standards, the man still hadn’t posted an ERA above 2.89 from 1997 to 2003. Maybe this was it for the Twins.
In the bottom of the sixth, Lew Ford doubled and then scored on a single from Hunter. The game was tied and it felt a little easier to breathe.
Santana struck out Ramirez to lead off the seventh, but then hit Veritek.
Veritek stole second and went to third on a throwing error from LeCroy.
Veritek only stole 25 bases in his career, though 10 of those came in 2004. This game was one of only 16 that LeCroy started at catcher that year. Sixteen runners attempted stolen bases against him in 144 innings in 2004. LeCroy threw out only one. Maybe Veritek knew something.
With Veritek on third, he scored on a sacrifice fly from Kevin Millar. Santana hadn’t given up a hit, but he’d given up a run and the Twins were losing once again.
Martinez finished the seventh with the Red Sox still up 3-2. He was done for the day.
Santana came out for eighth and struck out two, giving him 12 strikeouts for the day, one better than Martinez.
With Martinez gone, the Twins came out swinging. Guzman and Ford hit back-to-back singles to start the inning and then pulled off a double steal.
Justine Morneau hit a sacrifice fly that scored both runners when shortstop Cabrera committed an error. The Twins were up 4-3 and Santana was in line for the win.
First-year but all-star closer Joe Nathan faced only three batters to secure that win. Santana, the best pitcher in baseball, had bested the previous best pitcher in a game that was very much a pitchers’ duel despite the 4-3 score.
He may never get a plaque in Cooperstown, but Santana will be remembered by me, and I’m sure many other baseball fans, as one of the best to ever stand on a pitcher’s mound.

This article was originally posted back in January, but with Mauer's 2000th hit Tom wanted various Mauer articles. I haven't changed much, but have added more data to support my opinion. I'd also just like to mention that I did not change my opinion on a potential salary for 2019 and beyond despite his torrid start to the season.
 
It's no secret that Joe Mauer is entering the final year of his 8 year, $184 million contract extension signed in 2010. It's also not a secret that Mauer isn't the player he was in 2009 or in the years leading up to that MVP season. What does seem to be a secret, is what thoughts "Falvine" has on Mauer's future past the 2018 season. There are really only three options, which I will breakdown below.
 
1. Stay with the Twins
Personally, I think this is the most likely scenario. He's from here, his family is here, he's spent his entire career here, his personality and demeanor (although frustrating to fans) fits well with the "Minnesota nice" mantra, and the Twins are starting to become contenders. So what will it take for the Twins to keep him here?
 
Since his move to 1st base (2012) Mauer has played 813 games as a first basemen, which is good for 13th most among 50 qualified players. In that same time he has provided a 14.7 WAR which is good for 10th best:
The "good": he's staying healthier, he's getting on base (6/50 in BA and 5/50 in OBP), and he's become one of the best defensive 1B in the game (#1 in UZR in 2017 among 21 qualified players).
The "bad": he'll be 36 in April of 2019 (only 6 qualified players were 36+ years old in '17), he provides no power as a 1B/DH (42/50 in SLG from 2012-2017), despite being healthier he's still good to miss at least 20 games/year not including the days provides no defensive value as a DH.

I think it's fair to assume that 2017 is the ceiling of what we can expect from Mauer in 2018 and beyond, although he has been lights out so far this season. Looking at salaries for players who are currently 36+ years old, 2017 and 2018 contract agreements, and salaries of other 1B around the league I would be looking for the Twins to give Mauer a 2-3 year deal at $8-$10 million/year not including incentives or player/team options. Again, I believe him signing with the Twins is the most likely scenario.
 
I came up with the $8 - $10 million range from looking at the following data.
 
Yonder Alonso signed with the Indians for $8mil per year. Comparatively to Mauer, he provides a little more power, less OBP, and a lot less defense. He's younger, coming off a career year, and also fits the "launch angle" ideal that so many hitters are trending towards. Ultimately, my opinion is that the pros and cons of both players provide a similar value to a team although the type of value they provide are different. I think that provides a sort of base line going into next offseason.
 
I also looked at players that signed in 2016/2017 offseason who were 36+ years old and although the median salary was 7.75 million a few of those guys are getting paid $13 & $16 million.If I were to include 35+ year olds, which is technically how old Mauer will be at the start of the 2019 season, the median is at $8 million and includes Yadier Molina (a career long Cardinal) getting paid $20 million. Although the median is lower, I think the higher deals give Mauer/Shapiro some room to negotiate an above the median salary. Especially if Mauer performs similarliy to how he did in 2017 and/or is able to hit like he currently is for a majority of 2018.
2. Sign Elsewhere
I don't see this happening, but obviously this is a possibility. Assuming Mauer only has a few more years in the big leagues, he could be looking for a team to win now. Now being 2019 or 2020. Depending on what the Twins FO does in free agency over the next couple years the Twins may or may not be legit world series contenders in 2019 or 2020. I hate to say it but with Greg Bird not being able to stay healthy the Yankees may have an opening at first base that would be a good fit for Mauer. Teams like Houston, Boston, Chicago (NL), Dodgers, Indians and Nationals are also obvious contenders, but currently have a player who is under contract at 1st base.
3. Retire
From what I have read/heard, there hasn't been any rumblings that Mauer is ready to hang them up. Doesn't mean it's not something to consider. Honestly, I almost think Joe would be more apt to retire than he would be to sign somewhere else. Moving somewhere else obviously would mean either moving his family or moving away from his family, which I don't think he would want to do.

How have the Minnesota Twins done in the MLB Draft in the past and recently?


The Minnesota Twins has to make the most out of every player they acquire through the draft. You can say that about every team in Major League Baseball but, some of those teams have the ability to make up for a bad draft every now and then. They can stretch the payroll to go get top tier free agents or make a big trade to acquire players who have already established themselves as great players.
 
Those teams are the exception, not the rule. That’s really the only way of going to get the sure thing, though. See a great player or an ace pitcher and go get them, either in free agency or in a trade. To be honest, though, none of those teams really want to do that. They would rather draft a player and develop them and have a farm system that consistently brings results then have to overspend. It’s hard to tell what a prospect will turn into as a major league player. His talent may be a lot better in the minor leagues but, as he works his way up the ladder, that gap closes a little at each level.
 
For the teams where free agency isn’t as much of an option, the MLB Draft is priority number 1 when it comes to acquiring players. It happens every year and they have to be prepared. They have to know what kind of players they want and what kind of players & pitchers they need and then go get those players. They can’t relax if the current team or the current prospects are doing very well at any time or any position. They can’t pick for need, either, or, at least, they can’t pick for the need of the Major League team. They can pick for an organizational need to strengthen some of the weaker positions in the organization but that’s something that should probably be done in the later rounds. Players acquired in the draft won’t help the major league team for years.
 
The old adage of pick the best player available is likely the best way to go, especially in the early rounds. That also means the best player available in their minds based on the reports from their scouts and from their own opinions as a group. It has nothing to do with the best-rated player available. They should Trust the Process, trust their philosophies and trust their draft board.
 
There should always be prospects coming who are close to ready for a chance to move into the lineup, rotation or bullpen as soon as possible to see what they can do, how they handle it and if they need more work to get there. They should be forcing the front office to promote them and pushing the veterans for their position and their spot in the lineup. That increases competition for each spot on the roster and makes everyone know they have to earn their spot. Competition brings the best out of everyone because every player knows they have to keep getting better to keep their spot.
 

Deep to Every Part of the Field


There’s always a possibility of having too many players for one position. If they are all ready to play at the major league level, then the front office can use the depth to make a trade to strengthen another position. A team can never have too much depth. They dream of having depth at every position. It’s a good problem to have if the organization has a difficult job figuring out who makes the team and who has to be sent down to the minors.
When teams are taking players in the draft, there is no way of knowing how long it will take them to develop into major leaguers. That’s if they even make it at all. Very few players go right into the big leagues. They all need a little seasoning in the minors nowadays. There’s no way to predict how any prospect will do no matter how good they were before turning pro.
 
Nobody knew Mike Trout would be Mike Trout or he wouldn’t have fallen to the 25th pick in the 2009 Draft. He would’ve been taken 1st*, yes, even ahead of the first pick by the Washington Nationals, RHP Stephen Strasburg. There are probably aren’t many drafts where the #1 overall pick ends up being the best overall player. The best player usually ends up being a player picked lower than #1. (Hmm….another post, another time.)
*The Twins took RHP Kyle Gibson with the 22nd pick in the first round, if you were wondering.
 

The Minnesota Twins Takes
"With their 1st pick, the Minnesota Twins take..."


You could probably guess the Minnesota Twins haven’t done very well in the draft, recently. If they had, they wouldn’t be where they are right now. They wouldn’t have over 90 losses in 5 out of the last 7 seasons. They wouldn’t have had to fire the GM. They wouldn’t have had to make some of the trades they made, hoping they would work out. They wouldn’t have had to force players into the lineup who may not have been ready. They wouldn’t have had to use 36 pitchers in one season to see what they can do and then risk losing them to waivers.
 
For a long time, the Minnesota Twins were known as a team that would draft well and always had a good farm system. It became known as the Twins Way and was part of the reason they won 6 division championships between 2002 & 2010. They knew how to develop players. In those same years between 2002 & 2010, they may have lost their way when it came to drafting well and developing players and most of all, pitchers. Here’s what they got from the drafts from 2002 to 2010:

2002: OF Denard Span, RP Jesse Crain, RP Pat Neshek
2003: SP Scott Baker
2004: 3B Trevor Plouffe, RP Glen Perkins, SP/RP Anthony Swarzak
2005: SP Matt Garza, SP Kevin Slowey, SP/RP Brian Duensing
2006: 1B/OF Chris Parmelee, 3B Danny Valencia, SP Jeff Manship
2007: OF Ben Revere
2008: OF Aaron Hicks, RP Michael Tonkin
2009: SP Kyle Gibson, C/1B/OF Chris Hermann, SS/2B Brian Dozier
2010: SP/RP Alex Wimmers, SP Pat Dean, SP Logan Darnell, OF Eddie Rosario 
So, in 9 years, all they produced for the rotation were Scott Baker, Matt Garza* and Kyle Gibson. Three middle of the rotation pitchers in 9 years. You could include Kevin Slowey, Anthony Swarzak, Brian Duensing and even Glen Perkins in there as well. They all began as starters and were then moved to the bullpen. They did alright with relievers Jesse Crain & Pat Neshek and also developed some pretty decent players in OF Denard Span, OF Ben Revere, OF Aaron Hicks, 2B Brian Dozier and OF Eddie Rosario.
*They traded possibly the best of them in Matt Garza to TB with SS Jason Bartlett for OF Delmon Young & SS Brendan Harris. Garza became a very good starting pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays. He helped lead them to the 2008 World Series and won the ALCS MVP.
 

Brick by Brick


The draft is a foundation for building great teams. It’s not the only part teams need to do right to build a winner but it’s a great place to start building. It’s hard to say what kind of production any team expects to come out of every draft. It’s something like an average of 2 players out of every draft* making it to the major leagues. That’s just making it there, too. Not if they’re starters or All-Stars, it’s any player who makes it to the major leagues. It could be an All-Star player, a #1 pitcher or a utility player or middle reliever.
*I couldn’t find anything concrete on this. I’ve heard that before, though.
 
It’s done slowly, building the foundation and adding to that foundation until they’ve built a champion. If you look at most championship teams, they have players who’ve been there for a long time who were acquired through the draft. Then they’ve continually added pieces from year to year to finally build a team that has everything they need to win a championship. They have depth at every position so they can survive any injuries or other challenges that come up during the season.
 
If you look at the 1987 World Champion Minnesota Twins, they slowly built that team. They drafted 1B Kent Hrbek in 1978 and he was one of the first pieces for that team. Then from 1979 to 1984, they kept adding more pieces.
 

1978: Kent Hrbek
1979: Randy Bush, Gary Gaetti (June-2nd Phase), Tim Laudner
1980: Jeff Reed (Traded for Jeff Reardon)
1981: Frank Viola, Steve Lombardozzi
1982: Alan Anderson, Mark Davidson, Kirby Puckett (January Draft)
1984: Jay Bell (traded for Bert Blyleven), Gene Larkin 
So the 1987 Twins drafted starters at 1st, 2nd, 3rd, Catcher and Center Field along with #1 starter Frank Viola and bench players Randy Bush, Mark Davidson & Gene Larkin and relief pitcher Alan Anderson. They also used draft picks to acquire a majority of the other pieces from that championship team.
 
Most people probably never think about that when it comes to the draft. In almost every trade a player who was acquired through the draft is involved. There are some trades that are just players signed through free agency or who were acquired through another trade. Also, the majority of those drafted players included in those trades never make it to the big leagues. They end up being throw-ins to get the trade done. The teams obviously believed they’d be more than that or they wouldn’t have asked for those players but, it still points to how important the draft is for building a team into a champion.
 
Are they building another champion with pieces drafted since 2009?:
 

2009: SP Kyle Gibson, 2B Brian Dozier
2010: OF Eddie Rosario
2012: SP Jose Berrios, RP Tyler Duffey, RP J.T. Chargois?, RP Taylor Rogers, CF Byron Buxton SP Luke Bard? RP Mason Melotakis
2013: SP Stephen Gonsalves, C Mitch Garver, OF Zack Granite
2014: RP John Curtiss, RP Trevor Hildenberger, SS Nick Gordon
2015: RP Tyler Jay?
2016: OF Alex Kiriloff
2017: SS Royce Lewis, OF Brent Rooker 
There are some pretty nice pieces on this list. They have starters at 2nd base, left field, center field, a few pitchers for the starting rotation & some good arms for the bullpen as well. It’s definitely a good start.
 

The 5th Rule of Drafting


The Rule 5 Draft was put into place so teams couldn’t stockpile talent on their minor league rosters. It forces teams to commit to keeping players who have been in their organization for 4 or 5 years depending on the age they were signed, 5 years if they were signed before they turned 19 and 4 years if they were signed after they turned 19. Players not protected by being placed on a team’s 40-man roster are available to be picked by other teams who have spots open on their 40-man roster.
 
The drafted players cost the drafting team $100K and must stay on the active 25-man roster for the entire next season or be offered back to the original team for $50K. Most of these players are not yet ready for the jump to the Major League so it’s a bit of a risk. It’s also another way for teams to find players who’ve already been in the minors for 4-5 years so they have a pretty good track record for teams to judge them on.
 
Rule 5 picks rarely make a big impact but sometimes it can work out quite nicely. Roberto Clemente is probably the biggest example of success but there are others, too. Twins fans surely remember LHP Johan Santana, who wasn’t actually picked by the Twins. They traded their 1st pick, Jared Camp, to the Florida Marlins in the 1999 Rule 5 Draft, who selected Johan from the Houston Astros. Other good examples for the Twins are OF Shane Mack in 1989 and C Mark Salas in 1984 (he was traded straight up for P Joe Niekro (with a nail file) in 1987. LHP Scott Diamond looked like a pretty good pick from 2010. He pitched well for a while but fizzled out and was released in 2014.
 
Recent examples of successful Rule 5 picks from the rest of the league are OF Joey Rickard for the Baltimore Orioles and 1B Justin Bour for the Miami Marlins. We view success as adding a piece to your major league roster that either helps you win or helps you acquire another piece that helps you win.
 

The Last Pick


That’s all for the history of who the Minnesota Twins have taken in the MLB Draft. They had a bad run there for awhile but they may have made up for it in more recent drafts. It helped to have higher picks because of the losing seasons. A philosophy change on what kind of pitchers to target from Terry Ryan may help the new regime get to the promised land, too.
 
In the next article, we’ll delve into how the Twins have done with International Signings. The BIG one that stands out is Miguel Sano but that’s because he’s the most recent success. We’ll see how they’ve done and if they’ve improved in this area throughout their history.
 
Thanks for reading our TwinsTakes on the Draft History of the Minnesota Twins! We’d love to hear your ‘Takes on the subject! Please comment below or the posts of this article on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and/or Google+!
 
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With the Minnesota Twins currently in the middle of the off-season and getting prepared for Pitchers and Catchers to report to Fort Myers, FL in 49 Days. I wanted to jump ahead to the highly anticipated 2018 Free Agent Class. It appears that the 2017 has been underwhelming for most with the consensus that the Twins seem to be preparing to "Make Their Run" in 2019.
 
The Twins Free Agents will include Joe Mauer ($23 Mil), Brian Dozier ($9 Mil), Eduardo Escobar ($2.5 Mil), Fernando Rodney ($4.5 Mil w/ club option for 2019). These four players will represent roughly $39 Mil possibly coming off the books for the organization. Not taking into consideration players the Twins are looking to possibly extend contracts with (Buxton, Sano, Berrios). Lets dive into what the 2019 Minnesota Twins could look like (or what I would like the 2019 Twins to look like). Note that I don't believe we should re-sign any of our free agents to-be (Dozier, Escobar & Mauer) or exercise our club options (Rodney).
 
Starting Pitchers:
1. Ervin Santana
2. Jose Berrios
3. Stephan Gonsalves
4. Fernando Romero
5. Micheal Pineda
 
Relief Pitchers:
1. J.T. Chargois
2. Aaron Slegers
3. Tyler Jay
4. Trevor Hildenberger
5. Taylor Rogers
6. Trevor May
7. Felix Jorge
8. Adalberto Mejia
 
Infielders:
1. Miguel Sano (DH)
2. Nick Gordon (SS)
3. Jorge Polanco (2B)
4. Jose Iglesias or Josh Donaldson (3B, Free Agent Signee)
5. Matt Adams or Justin Smoak (1B, Free Agent Signee)
6.
 
Outfielders:
1. Byron Buxton
2. Max Kepler
3. Eddie Rosario
4. Zack Granite
 
Catchers:
1. Jason Castro
2. Mitch Garver
 
Note that I have left our starting pitching staff as status-quo until the FO shows the masses that they will throw some coin at a Front Line Starter. I believe with the money coming off the books after the 2018 season, that the financial resources should be there for us to get one. Sano is destined to be a full time DH (due to his size and to keep him healthy). I like Garver's versatility in the field while Castro is still under contract.
 
I think we need to get after a LHH First Basemen, possibly Matt Adams or Justin Smoak. With Sano moving to full-time DH, we would need to acquire a 3rd basemen I like Jose Iglesias for this. We would still need to get a UTL IF/OF type player for the back end of the bench - this could be filled by a variety of players, internal or external. I would also consider Josh Donaldson at 3B - he would cost us a bit more money but would add some significant power to the line-up.
 
I gathered below 16 Position Players and 16 Pitchers that will be Free Agents after the 2018 season. Some are way out of our financial league with some that are older but still productive - who catches your eye as possibly realistic Twins targets for upgrades to our line-up and pitching staff?
 
Position Players:
1. Bryce Harper - 2019 Age, 26
2. Manny Machado - 2019 Age, 26
3. Josh Donaldson - 2019 Age, 32
4. Charlie Blackmon - 2019 Age, 32
5. Elvis Andrus - 2019 Age, 30 (Opt Out)
6. Brian Dozier - 2019 Age, 32
7. AJ Pollock - 2019 Age, 31
8. Andrew McCutchen - 2019 Age, 32
9. Joe Mauer - 2019 Age, 36
10. Adam Jones - 2019 Age, 33
11. Wilson Ramos - 2019 Age, 31
12. Justin Smoak - 2019 Age, 32
13. Matt Adams - 2019 Age, 30
14. Jose Iglesias - 2019 Age, 29
15. Jason Heyward - 2019 Age, 29 (Opt Out)
16. Yasmany Tomas - 2019 Age, 28 (Opt Out)
 
Pitchers:
1. David Price - 2019 Age, 33 (Opt Out)
2. Andrew Miller - 2019 Age, 34
3. Craig Kimbrel - 2019 Age, 31
4. Gio Gonzalez - 2019 Age, 33
5. Zach Britton - 2019 Age, 31
6. Patrick Corbin, 2019 Age, 30
7. Drew Pomeranz - 2019 Age, 30
8. Clayton Kerhaw - 2019 Age, 31 (Opt Out)
9. Matt Harvey - 2019 Age, 30
10. Nathan Eovaldi - 2019 Age, 29
11. Dallas Keuchel - 2019 Age, 31
12. Garrett Richards - 2019 Age, 31
13. Matt Moore - 2019 Age, 30
14. Hyun-Jin Ryu - 2019 Age, 32
15. Joe Kelly - 2019 Age, 31
16. David Robertson - 2019 Age, 34

Last year at DH for the Twins looked like this:
 
Player PA R OBP SLG wOBA
Robbie Grossman 257 39 .336 .398 .320
Kennys Vargas 129 17 .310 .425 .313
Miguel Sano 100 7 .300 .267 .254
Eduardo Escobar 74 7 .297 .424 .308
Joe Mauer 57 8 .386 .347 .331
Mitch Garver 12 1 .417 .500 .391
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 629 79 .326 .384 .309
 
Last year at the plate for Lucas Duda:
 
Player PA R OBP SLG wOBA
Lucas Duda 491 50 .322 .496 .341
 
 
 
The 31 year old played 792 innings last season at 1B for the Mets and Rays.
 
Defensive metrics show he's similar to a Chris Davis or Matt Carpenter, but that is not what the Twins need since Joe Mauer is one of the top defensive 1B in the MLB.
 
Here is my pitch for why the Twins should sign Duda:
 
1. Power (since 2015)
Player SLG ISO XBH/100 HARD%
Lucas Duda .479 .248 12.6 39.2%
Eric Hosmer .463 .169 9.02 32.2%
Chris Davis .486 .252 11.2 41.0%
 
Duda has great power numbers comparable to some of the better 1B power bats over the past few seasons, being in the AL where he can DH will definitely boost his numbers since he can take more at-bats.
 
2. Age
At 31, Duda is no spring chicken, but 1B has been on of the most forgiving positions as players age.
 
Other 31 year-old 1B numbers:
Player Year ISO OBP SLG wOBA
Mike Napoli 2013 .223 .360 .482 .367
Jim Thome 2002 .373 .445 .677 .461
Edwin Encarnacion 2014 .279 .354 .547 .389
Justin Morneau 2012 .149 .333 .440 .330
 
3. Cost
As far as contracts go, the high end Duda would go for is 1-2 years, $10M per season. A lot depends on how the free agent market changes during the off season. If the Twins can sign a defensive catcher in Castro for $8M per, they should be able to spend around the same amount for a power bat, if not more.
 
4. Ballpark
How exciting would it be to see Duda driving balls out over the RF porch onto the concourse? As a lefty, Duda's swing would work perfect at Target Field. He hits 30.3% to CF and 46.2% to RF. 42.1% of his batted balls are hit hard, while less than 20% are hit soft. This combination of hard hit balls being hit to to the right side of the field is a lethal combination at Target Field. Click here for an image of every 2017 Lucas Duda home run with the Target Field dimensions overlaid.
 
 
Conclusion:
The Twins could use Duda as a DH and reliable 1B replacement for Mauer. He would thrive in Target Field and would produce extra pop in the middle of the Twins lineup. I'm a huge Eduardo Escobar fan, and I would love to see him be a key piece for the Twins as well. I believe signing Duda would allow for Escobar to be a full-time utility man at 3B/SS/2B/
 
My projections:
PA R OBP SLG
450 47 .345 .485
500 51 .343 .488
550 64 .340 .490
600 75 .337 .492
650 76 .335 .486
700 81 .333 .482
 
My 2018 lineup:
1. Dozier 2B
2. Mauer 1B
3. Sano 3B
4. Rosario LF
5. Duda DH
6. Polanco SS
7. Buxton CF
8. Kepler RF
9. Castro C
 
 
Thanks for reading and please leave a comment if you agree/disagree with anything.

Maybe it was seeing Bo Jackson on a commercial, looking like a younger version of George Foreman that got me thinking about two sport athletes, maybe it is the big deal that is being made over Ohtani being a two way pitcher/hitter in the major leagues, or perhaps it was looking at the baseball cards from my old favorite Milwaukee Braves, but suddenly I was thinking about athletes, baseball players, who actually excelled in two sports at the major league level. Not the Michael Jordan type of athlete who day dreamed about being a superstar in another professional league, but those who actually made it to the professional ranks in two separate sports.
 
Bo Jackson achieved great legendary status as both a professional Football Player and a professional Baseball player. He not only played the two sports until injury ruined his career, but he made the all-star team in both Baseball and Football. His accumulated statistics for an eight year baseball career were: 598 H, 141 HR, 200 BB, 841K 415 RBI, .250AV, OPS 784 8.3 WAR
 
 
Another Football baseball player who really excelled and is in the hall of fame for one sport and made the all-star team in the other was Deion Sanders who made it as a two sport star two years after Bo Jackson and played major league baseball from 1989 to 2001 and football from 1989 – 2005..
 
 
Speed played well in both sports and in baseball he had an accumulated 5.5 WAR, 558 hits and a .263 batting average with 39 homeruns, and 186 stolen bases. His OPS was 711. One year he led the league in triples, twice he was second in stolen bases and he played in the 1992 world series for the braves.
 
 
Gene Conley had been a Boston Celtic and a Milwaukee Brave. He was tall, but especially for that time. This was before we got used to Randy Johnson and seeing a tall man make the mound seem to grow to a mountain. But Gene was not a HOF player in either basketball or baseball, just a good player and, somehow, I doubt if he had any coaching that new how to take advantage of his natural talent and his length. Today, we know that the angle of a tall pitcher is significant and so is the extra reach that gains them some inches if not feet to shrink the distance from mound to bat. http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/b5fecb6f
 
 
He played in the major leagues for 11 years, with the Braves in both Boston and Milwaukee for six years and then with the Phillies and the Red Sox. His record was 91- 96 with a 3.82 era, 10 saves, 888K in 1588.2 innings, and a career whip of 1.33. He was on the World Series winning Milwaukee Braves team.
 
 
During that same period he played four years with the Celtics, during which they won 3 world championships and he averaged six points and six rebounds per game. He came back to the NBA after a period where he was only in one sport and played two more years.
 
 
He was born in 1930 in Oklahoma and in his high school years he was a three-sport star in Richland Washington, adding track to his repertoire. At 18, the six-foot eight-inch freshman chose Washington State where he was the star and leadING scorer for the Cougars. In 1949 he was a Northwest league all-star as a pitcher and played in New York in the Hearst all-star game beating Frank Torre (Joe’s brother who would be his teammate on the braves). In 1950 his college team was runner up for the national champion. He then turned pro.
 
 
In his first minor league year he won 20 games and had a 3 – 1 K/BB rate. He used a fastball and a curve and never added a third pitch to his arsenal, something that might have lifted him even higher in this career accomplishments. By 1952 he was the fourth starter in the braves rotation that was anchored by Warren Spahn and Lew Burdette. That year he played for the Celtics (with permission) but was late for spring training and sent to the minors where he won 23 games and was the American Association player of the year.
 
 
In 1954 he was in a car accident which would give him back problems that would plague his career. Still he won 14 games and pitched in the All-star game and finished third for Rookie of the year behind Wally Moon and Ernie Banks.
 
 
In 1955 he blew out his rotator cuff and I mean blew it out. The popping sound that came at the moment of injury was heard by his catcher – Del Crandall. No Tommy John surgery then, he pitched with it and had over 100 cortisone shots during the remainder of his career.
 
 
Returning to the Celtics for another championship run he angered the Braves GM and was traded to the Phillies where he won 12 games for the last place team. Retiring to Foxboro, Massachusetts where he and his wife ran a paper company. His final victory was a personal one, when a fan told him he was too good to be seen drunk and he gave up liquor from that moment on. His sports from then on were golf and skiing.
 
 
The final question that I had was how many had this two-sport career? In the early years of baseball and the NFL there were many who crossed over with nearly 70 having a career in both football and baseball beginning with such career stars as Jim Thorpe, Ernie Nevers, and George Halas. Seven football hall of famers played major league baseball. One of the later day stars that preceded Bo Jackson was Vic Janowicz, the 1954 Heisman trophy winner from Ohio State played baseball for the Pirates for two years and then football for the Redskins for two years.
Brian Jordan is not a household name (neither is Gene Conley) but he had a 15 year career with the St Louis Cardinals during which he accumulated a 32.8 WAR, had 1454 hits, batted 282 with 184 Homeruns and 821 Rbis. His OBP was 333 and slugging – 455. Nice career. He played three years with the Falcons had 5 interceptions and four sacks.
 
 
Drew Henson was the last of the two-way football/ baseball players, but he only makes this as a footnote and not because he excelled in either.
 
 
Basketball had a much lower number of two-way players, with 12. From that list the most impressive baseball talent was Dick Groat of the Pirates and Dave DeBusschere and Danny Ainge starred in basketball more than baseball. The National Hockey League has not had crossover stars, but this article gives you six prominent baseball players (including Justin Morneau and Tom Glavine) who were good at Hockey - http://mlbfancave.mlb.com/fancave/blog/article.jsp?content=article&content_id=44302058
 
 
Times have changed in many ways and one in particular – the length of seasons. Basketball playoffs are now finished in June – eliminating half the baseball season and baseball goes into November eliminating the beginning of basketball and football camp is in July and the Superbowl is half way through the basketball season. Too be honest, I preferred the more seasonal schedules. Basketball and Hockey cannot sustain my interest when it warms up and I am not ready for football until September.
 
 
There may not be duel sport heroes like these any more, but they deserve a special place in our sports history.

While you were opening presents, spending time with your family, and scarfing down cookies on Christmas, the Minnesota Twins went shopping in the free agent pool. Zach Duke becomes the latest member of Paul Molitor's bullpen, and that has some different narratives we need to discuss. Then this morning, Darren Wolfson dropped a Miguel Sano sized bomb that needs some more dissecting as well.
 
Duke, who will pitch the 2018 season at the age of 35, is just over a year removed from Tommy John surgery. After undergoing the procedure in September of 2016, he returned for 27 appearances and 18.1 IP for the Cardinals a year ago. In that time, he posted a 3.93 ERA along with a 5.9 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. What makes Duke intriguing however, is what his numbers look like immediately prior to his injury.
 
Having pitched as a starter for the entirety of his time with the Pirates (2005-10), Duke didn't become a true full-time reliever until 2014. In his three years of relief work, he posted a 2.74 ERA across 180.1 IP for the Brewers, White Sox, and Cardinals. That number also came with a glowing 10.4 K/9 and a 3.9 BB/9. Out of the pen, Duke really didn't see much of a velocity boost, still hovering around the 89 mph range.
 
In 2017, Duke returned with his fastball averaging 88.1 mph (so slightly down from pre-surgery). He utilizes a sinker, slider, changeup, and curveball making him a valuable four-pitch pitcher in relief. As a lefty, Minnesota can now look at Buddy Boshers as expendable, and would then have an avenue to get the 40 man roster back to 39 players.
 
Per Darren Wolfson, Duke's deal is a one-year contract worth something like $1.5-2 million. This follows along the same lines as what I believe the Twins told us with Fernando Rodney. They looked for relief help that could be had on one-year deals with significant upside. Both Duke and Rodney are bolster a pen that needed help in 2017, and neither are true roadblocks to the emergence of players such as Tyler Jay, Alan Busenitz, J.T. Chargois, or Jake Reed. Rather than building an expensive pen, Minnesota is getting creative and making what seem to be smart decisions.
 
On another front, it appears that the Twins are exploring all avenues when it comes to bettering the roster as a whole. Talking on 1500 ESPN, Wolfson noted that Miguel Sano has been a name floated by Minnesota in trade talks. This hardly comes as a surprise, and I firmly believe Sano is the best piece of the young core to move if you are going to do so.
 
Making an offer to another team with Sano as the headliner right now could be a bit tricky. Although his .859 OPS a year ago represented a great season (and a career high 28 HRs), he's coming off a season ending surgery that resulted in a rod being inserted in his leg. Going forward, the Twins have suggested they don't see any limitations, but at this point, that's hardly a sure thing. When considering the landscape of Twins talent however, Sano's skillset jumps out as the most replaceable asset.
 
Going into any given year, you can expect a handful of things from Miguel Sano. He's probably going to play over an ideal weight, he'll hit a significant amount of home runs, he'll draw a decent amount of walks, the strikeouts will be there, and at times you'll need to utilize first base or the designated hitter spot to get him off of third. There's a lot of good in those realities, but there's a few very real detractors as well. Those detractors are no doubt the highlights of the conversations Minnesota's front office must have when considering moving their All Star third basemen.
 
Even with the injury uncertainty, Minnesota isn't simply going to have to give Sano away. While it may deflate his value a bit, I'd bet that there's plenty of teams looking at him as a future cornerstone. Should a match be made in which Sano can return front line pitching, I'd suggest that as something the Twins should explore. If Yu Darvish can't be had on the open market, a swap of Chris Archer for Miguel Sano (and another piece or two) could be something that would benefit the Twins in the long run.
 
Getting a controllable pitcher, with ace potential, in return for a power hitting corner infielder seems to be a decent tradeoff. Third base isn't a position with a ton of options, but both Todd Frazier and Mike Moustakas remain available for a team to jump at. Eduardo Escobar could also assume the starting role, with a bigger bopper but lesser fielder left on the bench to rotate in. At any rate, the tradeoff seems one worth exploring.
 
As things stand now, I'd imagine Minnesota would prefer to sign Darvish as opposed to trading Sano. Keeping physical assets while spending cash should always be the preferred mode of acquisition with all things being equal. However, as the scenarios work themselves out, it certainly appears like Thad Levine and Derek Falvey have a backup plan or two in place. The Hot Stove may be cool for the moment, but I don't think we'll continue to see it stay that way for the rest of the winter.

This is a series of evaluations that will be done this offseason on every player that closed the season on the 40-man roster for the Minnesota Twins throughout the winter until each player has been evaluated. The plan is to start with Mr. Belisle and move all the way through the pitchers, then to the catchers, infielders, outfielders and finally those listed as designated hitters on the club’s official MLB.com roster. That means we’ll wrap it up with Kennys Vargas sometime before the season starts.

Name: Alan Busenitz
2017 Role: Flame-throwing righty who earned Paul Molitor’s trust, and later-inning work, as the season went on.
Expected 2018 Role: Role will depend on how many bats he misses; could be a setup man or could just be another guy.
MLB Stats: 1.99 ERA, 4.20 FIP in 31.2 innings; 6.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.98 WHIP, 0.1 fWAR, 0.7 bWAR.
MiLB Stats: 1.78 ERA, 2.15 FIP in 35.1 innings at Triple-A Rochester
Contract Status: Arbitration-eligible after 2020, free agent after 2023

 
2017 Lowdown:
 
Busenitz came on the scene with the Twins as the lesser-known commodity in the deal that sent Ricky Nolasco and Alex Meyer to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and returned Hector Santiago. To that point, Busenitz was a hard-throwing 26-year-old righty with no big-league experience, though he got a late start as a college draft pick (senior sign) from Kennesaw State University.
 
Not only that, but he played five years of college baseball, which is exceptionally rare. He spent two years at Georgia Perimeter College, then three with the Owls because his 2012 season was abbreviated by Tommy John surgery. Still, he’s a pretty great story. In his first year at Georgia Perimeter, he had a 4.37 ERA and a WHIP of 1.54. In his first two seasons at Kennesaw State — before getting hurt — he had a combined ERA that was close to 7.00 and a WHIP of nearly 2.00.
 
But Busenitz made his way up the Angels system, pitching in relief for all but eight games in a brief stop at Double-A Arkansas — and not a good one, as he posted a 6.75 ERA. Even his minors numbers at most stops aren’t exceptionally strong. He blitzed the low minors like most 20-somethings should, but that first snag at Double-A Arkansas wasn’t that long ago (2015).
 
He barely pitched at Triple-A in 2016 in the Angels system, and it went poorly to say the least. He allowed 11 earned runs in 13 innings (7.62 ERA) while opposing batters hit .308/.383/.462 against him. It’s not surprising he lasted just a month and a day before he was shipped to Double-A — though it was in Chattanooga, as he was then traded to the Twins.
 
Like he has with pretty much every challenge in his career, Busenitz thrived in his second go-round at Triple-A, twirling a 1.78 ERA over 35.1 innings before the Twins gave him his first MLB call.
 
He certainly didn’t disappoint with the Twins, either, posting a 1.99 ERA over 28 appearances spanning 31.2 innings. Now it’d be easy to point out that Busenitz had a FIP of 4.20, thanks in large part to an unsustainably low BABIP (.212) and a high strand rate (86.6 percent), and he also didn’t do much strikeouts-wise with his blazing fastball, fanning just 6.5 batters per nine despite averaging 95.7 mph on the heater.
 
Please click through to Zone Coverage here to read the rest of this story!

Just for fun because these are all small sample sizes here and they could do a complete 180 after one more appearance, but some interesting and largely encouraging things I noticed with Brooks Baseball pitch tracking.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/
Phil Hughes:
I wanted him out of the rotation all off season because his off-speed and breaking stuff varied from awful to non-existent. The usage of Hughes' fastball, which has brought a chorus of boos due to a lack of velocity, decreased 40% from last year. He only threw his heater 30% of the time, meanwhile he threw his changeup 26% of the time. This is a pitch that he has barely touched in a half decade. Hughes made it through the day with a good box score but too many hard hit balls. This experiment might not work, but it's a good sign.
Verdict: At minimum, encouraged by the effort to fix a glaring problem.
Kyle Gibson:
I can't summarize concisely how much I dislike Kyle Gibson's sinker. Or sinkers in general. Or the Titanic. Google my username, Gibson and sinker and the clinical definition of a mental disorder will pop up. To cut to the chase, Gibson threw 30% fewer sinkers than his average last year. He also threw 40% more sliders, one of his two good pitches, the change being the other which stayed the same.
Verdict: Hooray! Let's get rid of that silly sinker!
Michael Tonkin:
You've got to be kidding me; Michael Tonkin's sinker usage increased 70%! Seems like we found where Gibson's missing sinkers went. Tonkin has also added a cutter this year. According to the site he has never thrown one before. His slider and 4-seamer usage is way down. Last year wasn't good for him so I guess there's good reason to try new stuff. Though he still went nearly 3 innings in his one appearance this year so I guess he's still the long man for some reason.
Verdict: Ugh, fine go ahead, do it, throw that stupid pitch. Change is good, help me embrace this one. Let's all just enjoy your influx of groundballs hit to the left side of the infield.
Hector Santiago:
He has been known as a lefty who gets by on smoke, mirrors and a genie in a bottle who got lost in a checked bag when he flew to Minneapolis last year. He's always been a two pitch pitcher using a FB/changeup combo with a bad curve that he breaks out once in awhile. Well the FB usage increased while the changeup usage decreased. Hey, but he got the win!
Verdict: At this rate he'll be a 1 pitch pitcher by June.
Brandon Kintzler:
Verdict: Nope, I'm still too chaffed to talk about sinkers again.
Ervin Santana:
Um, this all looks the same.
Verdict: Duh, why mess with the one thing that went right last year?

On Wednesday, November 30, 2016 the Twins announced the signing of free agent catcher Jason Castro to a 3-year, $24.5MM contract. It was a move that was widely attributed to the members of the Twins’ new front office comfort with advanced analytics. Jason Castro is widely regarded as very good defensive catcher due in large part to his ability to frame pitches and steal strikes for his pitchers. In 2016 Castro ranked third in all of baseball in Baseball Prospectus’ Framing Runs statistic, with +16.3. Kurt Suzuki, the Twins primary catcher in 2016, ranked 92nd at -6.8. Suzuki’s main backup, Juan Centeno, ranked 97th with -9.7.
 
Castro is a roughly average offensive catcher. He put together a 88 wRC+ in 2016, which ranked 17th among catchers with at least 250 PAs, via Fangraphs. For reference, the league average wRC+ for catchers in 2016 was 87. But, he got a $24.5MM contract primarily because of his framing and the Twins are expecting him to make an impact on their pitching staff.
 
So where might the Twins pitchers benefit from better framing? Let’s look at the Twins pitchers (that are still with the organization in 2017) that threw at least 50 innings in 2016, sorted by innings pitched:
 


 
Using this list of pitchers, we can utilize Fangraphs' excellent heatmaps tool to explore each pitcher’s distribution of pitches around the strike zone. For example, here is Kyle Gibson’s 2016 pitch% heatmap, which displays the percentage of pitches thrown to each particular segment in and around the strike zone (shown from the pitcher’s perspective). The rulebook defined strike zone is outlined in black.
 


 
There are not many surprises here, as we can see Gibson most often pitches down in the zone, and to his arm side. This is likely driven in large part to the high number of 2-seam sinking fastballs he throws (27.2% of total pitches in 2016, per PITCHf/x data available on Fangraphs).
 
What this data also lets us do, is explore each pitcher’s propensity for pitching to the edges of the strike zone. Let’s assume much of the benefit of pitch framing occurs at the edges of the strike zone, where pitches are less definitively a ball or a strike to the eyes of the umpire. By focusing on the edges of the zone we can identify which Twins pitchers might benefit most from better framing.
 
For this analysis, I focused explicitly on the strike zone segments just inside and just outside the rulebook strike zone, which are the areas between the gold lines in the graphic below:
 


 
Using the pitch data in these sections, I calculated a metric for each Twins pitcher labeled "Total Edge%". These data points are summarized in the table below and show us the percentage of pitches thrown on the edge, or just off the edge of the strike zone, by each Twins pitcher in 2016:
 


 
What we can see is the Twins starting pitchers seemed to pitch toward the edges of the strike zone more than the league average and more than their reliever teammates in 2016, with the exception of Brandon Kintzler. Ervin Santana is approximately at league average, which was 44.7%. Kyle Gibson is significantly above, at almost 49%. Jose Berrios, Phil Hughes, and Hector Santiago are all up around 47%. So, as a starting point, we can assert that Gibson, Berrios, Hughes, and Santiago are the primary candidates to benefit from better framing.
 
But how do they fare in getting called strikes around the edges of the zone?
 
Using the same heatmaps tool, we are also able to visualize each pitcher’s called strike percentage (cStrike%), in each segment of the strike zone. Here is Gibson’s for 2016:
 


 
As we would expect, pitches located in the middle of the zone are nearly always called a strike, evidenced by the bright red boxes and rates at or near 100%. As before, our interest is just on and just off the edge of the strike zone, which I again outline in gold. Here, we see more variation, with the called strike percentage ranging from as high as 88% in the zone to Gibson’s arm side, to as low as 27% inside the zone up and to his glove side. We also see, pitches just off the strike zone are called strikes at a much lower percentage than pitches just in the zone, as you would expect. But, we need a reference point. How do the Twins compare against the rest of baseball?
 
Using this data, I calculated two additional metrics, labelled as "In-Zone Edge cStrike%" and "Out-Zone Edge cStrike%", which delineate the called strike percentage on the edge and in the zone, and on the edge and out of the zone. Focusing on these strike zone segments, I calculated the called strike percentage for each Twins pitcher. Also included are the MLB averages for each metric.
 


 
What we see above, is that 6 of the 10 Twins pitchers to throw 50 innings last season had a lower than league average called strike rate on pitches on the edge and inside the legal strike zone. Ryan Pressly and Jose Berrios appear to be the most impacted, with called strike rates significantly less than the league average of 64.9%, at 52.8% and 57.5% respectively.
 
But what about just off the edge?
 


 
When we focus on the segments just off the strike zone we see this same trend play out, but even more significantly. The visual above shows that 8 of the 10 Twins hurlers had lower than league average called strike rates on pitches just off the strike zone. This indicates that they were not getting many strikes stolen in their favor. In most cases for the Twins, the difference from league average is quite significant. Berrios, Michael Tonkin, Pressly, Taylor Rogers, and Santiago each have rates right around half the league average of 10.4%. The net result, when we add up the In-Zone and Out-Zone Edge cStrike% for Total Edge cStrike%, is that 7 of the 10 Twins pitchers studied had called strikes rates around the edges of the strike zone that were decidedly less than league average.
 
Now, this probably isn’t all that surprising intuitively. We know the Twins as a whole did not pitch well last year (29th in ERA, 27th in FIP, per Fangraphs), and we know the Twins catchers did not rate well as pitch framers. Kurt Suzuki and Juan Centeno combined to catch nearly 86% of the Twins defensive innings last season. But for as bad as the team pitched, it is also clear the pitchers were not getting much help from their catchers.
 
But how many pitches are we talking about here? If we assume a league average called strike rate on the edges of the strike zone (which was 36.1% in 2016) for the Twins, we can estimate an additional number of pitches that would be called strikes. This is what we find:
 


 
By this analysis, it seems that Jose Berrios, Ryan Pressly, and Ervin Santana would benefit the most from better pitch framing, with each gaining roughly 20 additional called strikes over the course of the season.
 
But how much does a pitch being called a ball, instead of a strike, actually matter?
 
Let’s look at the major league batting average by count in a plate appearance. The data in the table below is from a 2014 Grantland article written by Joe Lemire, and calculates the batting average for plate appearances ending on specific counts. For example, the batting average on plate appearances ending on the 0-1 pitch is .321. The data fluctuates slightly year to year, but in any given season, you’ll find a table that generally looks like this:
 


 
By this measure, the value of a strike, depending on the count is quite significant. In a 1-1 count, for example, if the next pitch is called a strike, making the count 1-2, the batter’s expected batting average drops from .319 to .164. Similarly, if the pitch is a ball, making the count 2-1, the batter’s expected average increases to .327. That’s a .163 swing in expected batting average.
 
Others have approached this differently by trying to calculate the expected outcomes by the result of the at bat that reaches each count. So, for example, what is the expected outcome for all plate appearances that reached an 0-1 count, regardless of whether it was the 0-1 pitch that the outcome of the plate appearance was created? Different approaches aside, we find a similar result according to a revisit of the idea by Matt Hartzell published on RO Baseball in 2016:
 


 
 


 
While the differences here are not quite as steep as before, we still see the swings matter. Batting average after a 1-2 count is .178, where after a 2-1 count it is .247. That’s still a .069 swing in batting average. We also have added on-base percentage, and see the trend holds. OBP after a 2-1 count in 2016 was .383, versus just .229 after a 1-2 count.
 
So, all of this helps us show the Twins have a pitch framing problem and pitch framing matters because getting more pitches called strikes leads to less runners on base.
 
But can Jason Castro fix it?
 
To try to find out, let’s look at the Houston Astros, Castro’s former employer. Using the same methodology as with the Twins pitchers, I again calculated the cStrike% on the edges of the strike zone for the all Astros pitchers that threw more than 50 IP in 2016. What we find is pretty telling:
 


 
Of the 12 Astros to throw more than 50 IP, only one, Michael Feliz, had a lower than league average called strike rate around the edge of the strike zone. But even he was roughly league average (36.06% compared to league average of 36.11%). The rest of the pitchers studied were above league average, and in most cases, quite comfortably so. Six of them are clustered close together right around 41.0%.
 
Now, to be fair, not all of this is directly attributable to Castro. These are different, and arguably, better pitchers. And Castro didn’t catch every pitch thrown (he caught 61.9% of the Astros defensive innings in 2016). But the difference is stark and by this rough measure, it seems Jason Castro will make a positive impact for the Twins pitchers.
 
To the Twins credit, they recognized they had a weakness, and they used the free agent market to acquire a player they hope can help address it.

Matt Bush has been called up from AA and is joining the Rangers 25-man roster. For those who don't know, or perhaps more aptly, don't remember, he was the much maligned High School shortstop, picked first overall in 2004 by San Diego. The pick was panned from the start as the Padres picked the hometown kid who played a premium position and passed up a perceived can't-miss ace in Justin Verlander, who made it well known that he was going to sign for big bucks. Due to the similarities, the top of this draft drew all kinds of comparisons to 2001 when the Twins more successfully took hometown kid Joe Mauer, who played a premium position, over the more heralded "can't-miss ace" Mark Prior.
 
Well things didn't work out so well for Bush or the Padres. He couldn't hit, he couldn't field and he didn't develop any power or speed. What he did develop was an alcohol and drug problem. The Padres kicked him to the curb, and likely thinking of the team's past failure to get the best out of Josh Hamilton, Tampa Bay picked him up and stuck him on the mound. That was a short lived union however as he was arrested and jailed for 51 months after nearly killing a motorcyclist which according to reports may or may not have been his third car accident of the day.
 
Out of prison, Bush was picked up this past year by Texas, who continued on with Tampa's pitching experiment. Well it appears as though it worked. In Double A he has a 9.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 2.61 ERA. Of course this is only in 17 innings pitched.
 
Of this crazy story, it was that last part that struck me the most, the guy has been in prison for over four years, has thrown only 17 innings this year and was basically a shortstop before hitting the big house, yet the Rangers have already called him up to the majors. Eat your heart out JT Chargois.
 
I have no idea if Matt Bush is contrite, humble or a changed man, if he is, I'm sorry for this next part, because all I can picture after reading this story is a Ranger's player asking him where he played last season. His response would be of course:
 
http://images1.houstonpress.com/imager/u/original/6716749/charlie_sheen_r102610_thumb_200x151.jpg
"California Penal."

The signing of Brian Duensing with the Kansas City Royals closes the book on a story that was started in 1989. In the first round of that year's draft, the Twins selected Texas A&M shortstop Chuck Knoblauch who would go on to spawn the trade that would put Twins GM Terry Ryan on the map and the fruits of that trade would be felt until 2015.
 
After seven seasons of what looked to be the beginning of a HOF career, Chuck Knoblauch and his 37.9 WAR wanted out of Minnesota and to a contender. Well that's how the fans knew it anyway, back before internet media was a thing. While largely unpopular at the time, the Twins received Brian Buchanon (.3 WAR), Christian Guzman (7.5), Eric Milton (14.7) and Danny Mota (-.1) in what would be the branches of our Knoblauch trade tree.
 
Brian Buchanon had some nice power potential and looked the part of a middle of the order bat, unfortunately for him, he found himself in a space crunch as he was competing for the RF/DH spot with Michael Cuddyer, Dustin Mohr, Bobby Keilty, David Ortiz and Matthew Lecroy.
 
Buchanon found himself shipped off to San Diego and in return the Twins received shortstop prospect Jason Bartlett (8.9). Bartlett would go on to play four seasons (initially) with the Twins before getting traded to Tampa Bay with Matt Garza and Eddie Morlan for Delmon Young (1), Brendon Harris (.-6) and Jason Pridie (-.2).
 
Pridie teased Twins fans with his potential but never put it all together and was soon DFA'd.
 
Brendon Harris found himself a mostly every day super-utility role for the Twins before being traded for Jim Hoey (-.6) and Brett Jacobson.
 
Jacobson never made it to the majors, Jim Hoey and his disastrous 24.1 innings unfortunately did.
 
Delmon Young played three and a half mercurial seasons with the Twins, seemingly breaking out in 2010 and being a large reason for the teams division title. Alas it was not to last and the following year he was traded to Detroit for Cole Davis who never appeared in a MLB game and Lester Oliveros (0).
 
Oliveros would too tease with his potential, but never got much of an opportunity to make it at the MLB level and was recently picked up the Royals.
 
That wraps up the Buchanon wing of the Knoblauch trade tree, so let's head back to the top and check in on Eric Milton. Milton pitched six seasons for the Twins, six seasons that saw an All Star appearance, a no-hitter, and questionable contract extension.
 
Despite that contract extension, the Twins were able to move him to Philadelphia for a package that included Carlos Silva (9), Nick Punto (10.3) and Bobby Korecky (.2).
 
Silva pitched four solid seasons for the Twins before signing a nice free agent contract with Seattle, but most interesting for Silva was his 2005 season when he set a modern day record of .4 BB/9. Seriously, that is bizarre, check out the single-season leader board and the next closest modern day player was Brett Saberhagen with a .65 BB/9 which is almost a 40% increase:
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/bases_on_balls_per_nine_season.shtml
 
Nick Punto just announced his retirement but played seven super-utility seasons with the Twins before leaving and winning a World Series with St. Louis in 2011.
 
Bobby Korecky, we hardly knew you, except for that time in 2008 when the Twins lost their DH and you had to come to bat in the 11th inning. Of course in that 11th inning you not only got a hit in your only career AB but also the Win. That has to be worth more than .2 WAR, which surely proves WAR is worthless.
 
Back to the top and we get to Danny Mota, who would do next to nothing for the Twins, appearing in all of 5.1 innings at the MLB level.
 
The last branch on the Knoblauch trade tree begins with Christian Guzman. The speedy shortstop made one All Star Game and led the league in triples three times. He left as a free agent to Washington, but in doing so the Twins were rewarded with a compensation draft pick. Not a 1st round pick because that was protected. Not a second round pick because that was already lost, but a 3rd round pick in the 2005 draft which the Twins used to select Brian Duensing (6.2).
 
Duensing was an unheralded prospect who made an immediate impact in 2009 and found himself pitching game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees, it did not go well. Duensing had another nice season in 2010 as a swing man before settling in as regular out of the pen. His seven years with the Twins matches Punto and Knoblauch himself in terms of number of seasons played for the Twins for the men listed in this overly long post.
 
In total, 19 players were acquired due to the first round selection in the 1989 draft and a total of 94.6 WAR was gained.
 
These trees can be found throughout baseball, and surely there are others as fruitful, but this one has interested me for a long time. All of the comical propositions of tossing Duensing into trade proposals the last couple of years were serious by me because I wanted this tree to keep growing. It however will not.
 
Epilogue:
 
the Twins 1989 draft was fantastic. They drafted three players with a career WAR over 20 in Knoblauch, Denny Neagle and Scott Erickson, also drafting Marty Cordova, Mike Trombley and Denny Hocking. Some of these players spawned unexpected fruit however too. While Erickson's trade for Scott Klingenbeck and Kimera Bartee is one of Ryan's best known failures, in 1992 Andy McPhail made a trade of Denny Neagle that would live on for years. In trading a top prospect in Neagle, (something unbelievable for the Twins today) the Twins received John Smiley, a very good, but not great pitcher who the Twins wanted/needed to replace the departed Jack Morris. Smiley pitched one fine year for the Twins before leaving, and in his place the Twins got a compensation pick in 1993 which they used to select Torii Hunter. When Hunter would leave the Twins would use his comp picks to select busts Carlos Gutierrez and Shooter Hunt. Also, while the Twins didn't get a comp pick for losing Marty Cordova, even though he had an .828 OPS the prior year, they did get one for losing Mike Trombley in 2000. They used that pick to select Aaron Heilman, who had a really nice MLB career, just not with the Twins because he refused to sign with them.