Whether they trade or keep him, (I heavily lean keep at this point) I still like tagging him to keep the long term options open. It's just really hard to make the longer term commitment being a fan of this club, as few sports cities have seen the one-year-of-excellence-then-disappointment like we've seen.
I guess I'll say, if you can get him for 30M, go ahead and do a deal. But I'd guess it will be way higher than that. If it's higher, just tag him for 40M and don't think twice; I'd rather not put all my eggs in the basket if it's a decision over a few million.
However, I'm quite confident that for any of his in-game faults, I do have pretty solid confidence that O'Connell knows a great QB when he sees one. If they do give him an extension, I'd at least be optimistic that they know more than our skeptical sports history has ingrained in us.