nicksaviking
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Everything posted by nicksaviking
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Well initial reports were that Bailey was intent on hitting the open market so I'm not trading anything of value for one year of a guy in another likely bad season. But if we are playing the hypothetical game, if the Twins take on the the Phillips salary, could they then trade Dozier as a replacement and give up lesser prospects? Or does Phillips still have added value despite the decline and the contract?
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Why, because Glavine was a Brave? It's an honor to be inducted on the first ballot, why does everyone have to get in that way? Why wouldn't the ballot be one and done for every player then? I'd vote Glavine in first ballot, but I don't think not doing so is nearly as grevious as you suggest.
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Maddox, Biggio, Glavine, Thomas, Morris and Raines. Some say intentionally not letting guys in on the first ballot is stupid. Well it's tradition to only induct the elite or the guys who hit milestones on the first ballot. If Harmon Killebrew and Joe DiMaggio can't get in on his first try I'm not going to cry for anyone else. Sorry, steroid suspsects aren't getting in, give it up. I'll it takes is one in four voters to say no and currently it's more like three in four voters. Those cheats knew what kind of stain they would leave on their reputation if caught, I'm not sure why some think they don't have to face the obvious consequences now. And those that were suspected but there may not be much proof? Well that's tough, this looks like it will be your punishment for keeping silent.
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Yes but Pelfrey is also a free agent, so it's not like the Twins are just going back to the stable to fill out the rotation. If signed they would be going out of their way to do so; it would be just as easy to sign a different free agent pitcher. I don't want Pelfrey back, and certainly not at prices higher than he received last year. That being said, in all honesty if Pelfrey was a terrible pitcher for a different team last year, my interest level in him would probably range somewhere between "Blah" and "Mildly Piqued" simply because I'd be curious about a bounce back season. Still, I want other options. Part of my disinterest is based on the fear that he would be considered the second best pitcher brought in this offseason which would be unacceptable. The other part would be that this just seems like more evidence that Ryan refuses to leave his comfort zone filled with familiar faces. But nothing has happened, maybe the Twins really lowballed him and have no plans on increasing the offer.
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While this is mostly true, given the same resources as Ryan the last three years, I think many fans could luck their way into consecutive 90 loss seasons.
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It is frustrating but not surprising. The team is loyal to a fault and really seems to prefer the comfort of old faces to new endeavors. Stubbornness is not a positive trait but perhaps they are only offering $3-4 million per. That wouldn't be a huge problem I guess aside from the fact that two years probably guarantees a rotation spot. Could make a bigger signing more possible though.
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Can a team even offer a two year minor league deal?
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That's just the fancy way of saying Saltalamacchia had a sub 100 OPS+ two of the last three years. I don't think this stat is very telling. The slugging % is great but like it or not park variables may affect this and we won't know until games are played. The OBP is awful including .288 marks in 2011 and 2012. Park factors almost certainly have zero impact on this. A poor OBP is a much more sure bet than a high SLG. And neither will Saltalamacchia considering only once did he put up a +.750 OPS. -
I don't think TF affects flyball hitters as much, the guys with uppercut swings that produce towering HR hitters do just fine like Thome, or the Toronto Blue Jays. But just watching the game, it seems quite clear that the line drive hitters who square up the ball don't get the same results. I don't know how many times it looked like Morneau had a clear HR but it died before it even got to the wall. I'm no geo-thermal-nuclear-physist-meteorologist but it certainly seems like some force hurts balls on a lower trajectory while ignoring balls that get up fast. Aside from Mauer and Morneau, Kubel also had these issues, it could be the players but what if it's the swing? Shouldn't the Twins hedge their bets? Commendably, Saltalamacchia had a career best 28% line drive percentage last year and a career low 38% flyball rate. Both look like outliers until more data is collected, but the Twins (like most clubs) clearly prefer line drive hitters, but the park might not be the most beneficial to these guys, at least from a power perspective.
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It doesn't make much sense that agents would tell teams not to submit offers, but perhaps the Twins haven't done so because Garza is their top target and Garza intends on waiting for Tanaka, who he and his agent may view as his biggest comparable. If that's the case, there's likely not much use putting an offer in front of Garza if he's not going to bother looking at it. Of course waiting for Garza who may be waiting for Tanaka could cause the Twins to lose out on other pitchers.
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If so, I hope their dreams don't get in the way of reality. For the first time in about two decades, genuinely attainable free agent upgrades currently seem to be sitting right in front of the Twins.
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Yes, just like their elbows. It's quite rude and embarasses the agents in front of their dinner guests.
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I agree those names aren't impressive now, but in 2011 they were still hoping for Hochaver and there was extreme optimism about Duffy and Montgomery. They also had high hopes for Sean O'Sullivan and Vin Mazzaro. It's not an impressive group now, but Duffy and Montgomery were in a higher class than Crow. I do wonder why he never got another chance at the rotation, I think it was a mistake. They do know him better than we do, and there may be some unknown reason, but I suspect it was because he was an All-Star reliever and they changed course with him and had designs on him becoming an All-Star closer.
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But why would you only base the decision on the 2013 numbers, should the previous seasons not factor in? His shoulder injury should be a concern, but the Twins almost certainly won't sign him if it is still troubling. Thus if the uber-cautious Twins are interested, his shoulder is likely healthy and his injury plagued 2013 season should probably not be so heavily weighted. Honestly I pulled the $3 million out of my butt (don't tell my wife I hide it there). I guess my faulty logic included the fact that Hyun jin-Ryu gets to be the bench mark. He got $6 million per year but was younger, bigger, put up better numbers and didn't have the injury question marks. Ryu was very well regarded, immediatly making top 100 prospect lists. I doubt Min will get the same kind of hype so I guess I figure he won't get nearly the contract.
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They may have an unknown reason now, but actually initially I think he was placed in the pen because the Royals had lots of rotation options. They signed Jeff Francis and had Bruce Chen. They also were still trying to make 1st overall pick Luke Hochaver work. In AAA they had about five young arms they thought were ready to contribute including highly rated Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery. I thought the assumption was that Crow was going to start the season in the bullpen until a spot opened up, but then he became an All-Star so they just left him there.
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Article: The Power Of Contribution
nicksaviking replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Great stuff and hard to argue against. Anyone who posts regularly can probably think of times when just before hitting "submit" they deleted a seemingly great post after realizing the thought wasn't nearly as coherent or logical upon proof reading. Or maybe it's just me. Still trying to decide if this part advocating blogs (which are often believed to be crass compared to print media) is intentional or not: "I’d argue that the cognitive shift in going from an audience of zero (talking to yourself) to an audience of 10 (a few friends or random strangers checking out your online post) is so big that it’s actually huger than going from 10 people to a million." Ha, huger?! Has our casual vocabulary finally made that word acceptable but I was not notified? -
Why do they have to choose betwee Min or May? Why can't they have them both? The guy is likely going to cost $2-3 million per year. The Twins normally spend twice that on one single pitcher who everyone can clearly see will be a bust before spring training even gets under way.
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Yeah, I thought the same thing. If the Twins got their hands on him I'd want them to try to stretch him out. I never understood what happend there. The guy only had one full season of organized minor league ball and that was when he was placed almost immediately in AA. It didn't go well and his stock went down. Still, the Royals thought enough of him to give him a spot on the 25-man the next year despite only having that one season of minor league action.
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Boras client or not, a pitcher with a questionable shoulder from the KBO won't be expensive. I wouldn't be surprised if $3 million per year would be the high end estimation, especially considering he wants out and has less leverage than most Asian imports. Certainly a cheaper and higher upside choice than the zero-ceiling, back-end starters this team normally signs.
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I'm not totally against signing him, but he just isn't consistant. While his OPS is around .740, last year was the first time he ever had a full season OBP over .300. It was .288 the previous two seasons. It seems that traditionally, guys who have very low OBP are the ones who are inconsistant throughout the season. Guys who struggle to get on base tend to be the ones who go on extended cold streaks. I like the power, but as discussed, it likely won't play as well at TF. I'm not saying he shouldn't be signed, I'm just saying that his disaster percentage is likely pretty high.
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The greatest blueprint you will ever see
nicksaviking replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'm not big on Saltalamacchia as I think his offense is historically way too inconsistant. I'm not against him exactly but three years is a lot for such an questionable non-pitcher. The timing of how these guys sign might come into play though. Saltalamacchia is getting all the press, and with McCann off the table he might be the next to go. If the Twins signed him, it would leave them with a lot less maneuverability to sign the needed two or three starters. On the other hand, starters may be more inclined to come to Minnesota if they first signed a well respected signal caller. He currently seems to have that rep anyway, though I suspect that might have more to do with catching veteran pitchers Lester, Buccholz, Lackey, Dempster and Peavy. -
And weak on the mound. Every dime that goes into a catcher with sporadic offensive production won't be going to upgrade the pitching staff. Why do you say any given move by the Twins won't be stupid? They aren't infallible, they've made numerous stupid decisoins over the years just like every other club. In fact most decisions they make, including ones that you, I or any other fan endorses at the time, has the potential to look stupid a short while later.
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The Twins don't generally trade guys when they are at their peak value. Lately they've been selling low.
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Well I guess my concern is that thus far this off-season most pitchers have been going for reasonable prices while the position players have been getting overpaid. Seeing as the Twins need pitching more than anything (or any team) they should be devoting their efforts to that front.
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Fangraphs on Arcia's Power Potential
nicksaviking replied to John Bonnes's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
While I understand a reluctance to put too much stock in small samples, the article said the same thing he did. It's not like Fangraphs bases their theories on assumptions. Just from the eye test though, Target Field seems to inhibit left handed line-drive hitters. Grip-it-and-rip-it uppercut hitters don't seem to have a problem, but line drive hitters don't usually seem to have enough loft to carry the wall.
