Rosterman

Protecting a guy like Vielma doesn't make sense, as he isn't expected to contribute in 2016 and probably not even 2017 at this point, and you have more names to consider (potential futue minor league free agents). Sometimes we get too caught up on this 40-man thing. Yes, you can grrab a low-level guy (a la Santana) and possibly make a killing. But more often than not it is that 41st guy (Gilmartin for example) who is grabbed. You almost have to worry more about losing someone in the minor league portion. It is a major decision to ad someone to the 40-man. You pretty much expect them to climb into the major leagues, otehrwise, they are just taking up roster space. What is sad is that you can probably egt 20 names out of the Twins current 40-man that won't be playing at the major league level fulltime next season, which says something about how unexpectedly good the current team was this year!

My frustration with the Twins is not being able to identify potential free agents to trade. Or doing it badly. Sure, Johann wanted out, but do you dangle him like you did at the winter meetings,or just go ahead and start the season and trade him to a needy contender. Also, identifying guys who will not be re-signing and trading them, and then still have the option of a resign as no qualifying offer needed: Hunter, Cuddyer, Nathan are perfect examples. We can also complain that Ryan waits too long, Delmon Young and Josh Willingham, for example, should've been dealt after their stellar season. It is tough being a general manager. You juggle future payroll demands, player ups and downs, the desire to give new guys a chance, and the possibility of a grizzled old veteran (Boyer) giving you some good juice.

Unless Kepler plays at 1B, they don't have a solid AAA guy. Of course Sano (and Kepler, and if still around Plouffe) could be the 1B of the future. Vargas is pretty much backup.

Considering the Twins are weak at first base in the system (who plays if Mauer goes down --- Plouffe,maybe Herrrmann, or Vargas - who is not the heir apaprant for the team). They basically have D.J. Hicks in the system, who could start at Chattanooga, too. They have Max Kepler at Rochester, unless Vargas stays down. Remember, last season they brouight back Brock Peterson for a quick look. Nothing but potential depth. He may start at Ft. Myers or Chattanooga, or not at all. Yes, he can catch, but still a longway from making a major league impact. Colabello had a certain maturity going for him, as well as (continued) hunger. But first base is a system weakness right now. Players CAN be moved there, but because of Mauer, the Twins don't really see a pressing need before the end of the decade.

I would gowith option 2, opening the season with rcia in the outfield and Buxton in the minors and Mauer at first, of course. I would also have Mauer try a third baseman's glove, just in case you need to shuffle (with Kepler as first baseman in waiting, and Walker as DH/4th outfielder in waiting). It will be painful if you have to trade Plouffe just because there is no room in the inn and you basically have to take what you can get (becauise no one needs a third baseman yet...wait until spring training happens, he costs too much this year and probably next year, teams know you don't have a roster spot for him and the reality is you would be better off trading Plouffe now for anything that Arcia or Vargas).

We could bring back Delmon Young! He's pretty cheap. Cheaper than Torii. And if we don't like him, we can drop him!

But Plouffe is also an expensive arbitration player. A team has to look at the salary demands he will bring this and next season and wonder if a longterm contract is worthwhile. But on the flip side, he is too valuiable of a proerty to just allow to walk with hopes of signing him for less than his arbitration value. So the Twins, or another team, have to decide if he is a $25-30 million dollar player for the next three seasons. Like Mientkiewicz and Pierzynski befroe him, Plouffe is blocking someone who is considered a better player cost to value, at least for the moment. It is one of the evils of the baseball system, where a player doesn't quite live up to the cost of keeping them, which is why teams are looking more and more at doing contracts with players before they hit arbitration and hoping they still hold possible trade value (i.e. Span) before hitting their free agency years. Do you want to commit $7+ million to Plouffe this season, a man without a position if all is well (and if Sano can't play third, can he play first and can we flipflop Mauer, which would be a logical choice). Do you look at 2017 when he could demand upwards of $10+ million dollars for his services, which have proven to be consistent, although he could suddenly have a Cuddyersque breakout season at age 30 that will launch him into untold riches for 5-6 years to come. Again, love him or hate him, he paid his dues, worked hard, but is expendable. That doesn't make him valuable...as the Twins DO need to trade him, and that doesn't sit well for selling for high value. Unless someone has a third baeman go down in spring training.

You take a gamble on Rule 5 guys and keep them on the roster, than option them out for one or two years following. The best candidates are those that can fill-in the back of the bullpen (Santana when he was signed, Graham now) or a solid utility guy for the infield with some speed and a glove (usually not a high priority) or a fourth outfielder who can actually play the field, be a defensive replacement, and might offer speed. Kepler did offer some of that, plus teams love to purge million-dollar signees from other teams if they can. Walker would be more of a bench bat, which can be a liability, but if you were a rebuilding team you might grab him to sit on the bench, and then go back to the minors for two seasons before having to make a decision in 2019. The cost is only $50 grand, and you can always get half-of-that-back. If you have the roster spot, it is much better to grab a highly-paidout minor league draftee from anotehr team and further develop them than draft and sign the guy yourself. This usually doesn't happen, but teams like the Twins and Astros, who have fairly strong minor league systems and won't be able to protect everyone, could be ripe for pickings.

LaTroy would look great in the bullpen. And, hey, Scott Baker is looking for a job!

Cleveland was supposed to be better this season, and they regressed a bit, but right now have a very low payroll and all the ptential in the world to be strong out-of-the-gate in 2016. Though no one over-excelled in 2015, the Twins outlook is more than promising. Where you have to ask the questions is depth. They have some depth in the outfield...five possible guys and you can supplement that with an AAA-type reserve. There is no backup at catcher, and although Suzuki played hard and gave adequate numbers offensively (I can';t believe he did bat second for awhile), he is not the future, and not the guy you want behind-the-plate for a contending team. We have Vargas and Kepler backing up first. We have Polanco backing up second. We have no one abcking up short. We have Plouffe and Sano battling it out for third. There, we pretty much covered the gp-tos for the Twins offensively in 2016. AAA will be full of Chattanooga advancements and unnamed minor free agents. We can talk about the May, but let's talk about Eeptember. Santana and Duffey were brilliant. Plefrey didn't really do anything for the Twins that May couldn't have replicated. Milone was hot and cold. Gibson was consistent, neither great, neither horrible. There, we have one starter too many. I hope Ryan doesn't sign another swingman like Stafuuer, but would like to think that for emergency purposes he could trust Rogers or Dean to pull some major league innings until Berrios is truly ready and Meyer figures things out. Twins set for rotation, although we can only hope Nolasco can dobetter than...Pelfry in 2016. The bullpen has Jepson and Perkins. Looks good. Otherwise, unless May stays, there is NO ONE I would pencil in from the names that played in 2015. I would say open season and don't go out-of-you-way Terry to sign Boyer or Fien or Duensing or Cotts. All are welcome back at less pay than 2015...yes, even Fien. If no one took him off your hands in August, then think about his true value. You can waive out all the other names: Darnell, Tonkin, O'ourke, Achter, Thompson. You can find replacements. YOU CAN FIND REPLACEMENTS. Hopefully you do better than just find replacements and spend some of that extra money you will have by NOT having Hunter and Pelfrey back for one-two legit middle-of-the-bullpen arms. The only depth in the offense is Plouffe, who isn;t exactly a bargain for a team and teams will think the Twins do want to move him and offer low, until a third baseman goes down in spring training. Of course, will playing a position during a game hurt or help Miguel in his at bats. You can entertain offers for Hicks, Dozier, Rosario and Escobar, who all have some worth. But you will go with unproven (Kepler, Polaco) or need to sign a short-term free agent if you move any of them. I see the roster pretty set. No one knocking down the Twins door to get Plouffe. People waiting to see what the Twins do do with Arcia. Staying comfortable with the current rotation because we have just enough able bodies if someone goes down. The bullpen is the only place to upgrade and spend good money for solid relief. You can always bring back the Boyer, Fien or Duensing for a song, if they find no takers elsewhere.

The thing is, would Arcia replicate Torii's 2015 season...hit 20+ home runs, bat .235-.240, strikeout a lot, field and throw as well? You would like to think, Yes. And the Twins need to see more of Arcia before totally pulling the plug, if possible. If Buxton starts at AAA (which he probably should), then Torii could be the 4th outfielder (you can find another Robinson). If you rotate Sano with Plouffe (assuming Plouffe isn't traded), you have DH taken care of, with Torii also as a backup.Torii did bring something to the clubhouse and didn't embarass himself on-the-field. But we have too many outfielders (maybe) at the moment. At some point you commit to the future (Arcia and Buxton and Kepler)...which might mean we have further issues if a certain unnamed forst baseman doesn't return to his form...soon.

Just seeing your name considered, especially when old workhorses like Bowa and Baker are being bandied around, means you might get a job. For a moment there I thought Gardy might not even be considered for a job this year. And soon he'll have to compete against people like Phil Nevin and Doug Mientkiewicz. Not to mention Mike Redmond!

Protecting Walker early? Or will he start at AAA next year. The Twins protected Polanco early. They protected Kepler far earlier than they probably needed to (eating up a couple of years, now, on his 40-man clock). Assuming that Walker will contribute to the Twins in 2018, with maybe a callup for sure in 2017, it is not out-of-the-question to protect him. If you start him and he fails at AAA (see WQheeler) and continues to put up same numebrs at AA for another season, then you can always consider sneaking him thru waivers, although a waiver claim of a player off a 40-man and then that team sneaking him thru is more common that a Rule 5 claim and trying to arrange a trade to keep someone in the system.

The joy of non-tendering a few guys like Nunez, Fien and Darnell is...will they find jobs elsewhere, added to another team's 40-man, or be willing to return to the Twins as minor free agent signees with a chance to get on the roster. Same with Shane Robinson, who could replace Wilkin Ramirez or Reynaldo Rodriguez, both of whom were potential callups if need arose. But, again, who will offer these guys jobs! Duensing may price himself out of a 40-man spot. The numebr of playrs on the Twins 40-man roster that WILL NOT find a similar spot or contract with another team is HUGE! Fryer, Herrmann, Achter or Tonkin. O'Rourke is on the bubble. Thompson will be looking for offers (being left-handed ensures that you will egt a contract somewhere). I would keep Graham. He can always start the year in the minors. Even though Nunez literally led the Twins in hitting, would I palce more stock in, say, Santana? Or try to convince Beresford to stay around? Hey, Doug Bernier will be looking for a job again! It is a sad state of affairs when at least a dozen guys could be easily repalced on your current 40-man roster, and the chances of any of the guys being repalced to star somewhere else (shades of Chris Colabello, Danny Valencia or Jeff Manship) is probably Alexi Casilla and Anthony Swarzak-ish!

We need a catcher upgrade. We need dependable backlup at first base if Mauer goes down. We need to have someone at third if Sano can't play tehre, especially if Plouffe is traded. We have a bunch of guys in the minors who can fill bench roles in the outfield and DH - Vargas, Arcia, :Pinto, Kepler come to mind. A couple could be Mauer replacements if needed. Who do we have as abckup in the infield? Resign Nunez? Santana and maybe Polanco. Do we sign a big bopper? Someone who could play the outfield and third base, betetr than Plouffe and for less or more? Plouffe will be around $7-8 million this year. Unfortunately in 2017, his value increases to $11-12. Not sure the Twins feel he is worth that much in 2017 (or any other team in baseball). But Plouffe will probably wait until his free agent year to gamble for a bigger contract than the $30 million the Twins MIGHT offer him for three years, but would the Twins offer that? The offense is pretty well set. It is jsut who plays if someone goes down, with the big question being if Sano can play third. Mauer NEEDS to produce. But he will not be going anywheres and chances are he will even get an extension at some point to remain a Twin for life. Do we find a DH/third baseman> Can they repalce Hunter and/or Plouffe? Is it someone for short-term or longterm? Do we find an aging vet who can also play x-positions in a pinch but is a Thome-like bat off the bench (not named Hunter or Morneau). Armchair GM's will have fun as liss are released of free agents, arbitration no-goes, minor castoffs and the ilk!

Only one general manager can win a World Series each year. Look how long some teams have gone without! I wonder if the Twins will ever go outside of the organization for a general manager, or is there a fear that the entire organization would then be broken apart, from the coaching staff to the scouting staff to the front office as a whole. If you look at the Twins bios, everyone has been with the team for a longtime, moving around into different jobs, and there IS a "Way" in the whole system. Maybe too comfortable of a "Way", and that should be criticized (if needed) or addressed than jsut individual people and their jobs. Yes, if you fail utterly, as Gardy did the last four years on the field (albeit he wasn't given the best talent all the time) you are fired. But a new direction wasn't totally taken. Sadly, the main job of an organization is to field a team that will put butts in the seats and sell concessions and such. If that happens, you suddenly have money to spend on product. Then you have to make product and brand decisions to create even more money, which can point you towards a winning way. But sometimes even throwing money at a problem doesn't help. In 2015 we had three expensive starting pitchers that combined for 20 victories. We had an aging outfielder who sparked some season ticket sales and did hit 20+ homers (although would Arcia have done the same) in the homer department if given the full chance. We had the face of the franchise dwindle to a below aveage first baseman instead of an average catcher. But the team stayed in the hunt, played competitive and entertaining baseball, and despite the fact that ONLY 24,000 folks showed up for the last game on a beautiful day to end the season, brought in enough crowds that the front office has to be giddy with the sales dollars for the season and the idea that they can actually sell season tickets under the slogan of what the future will bring next season. Ryan is General Mager. He has a staff peforming multiple duties. He has a scouting department that is accountable for draftees and how they progress in the system. There is a budget, and the Twins did spend their budget. Did WE want different players, of course. But the players have to want to come here for the money offered, ant that always doesn't work out. Players here have to want to stay for the money offered compared to elsewhere, as well as what other teams bring to the table. General Manager is a hard job and Ryan, like Beane, has has to deal with a front office on the cheap more times than not. He has made some "Blly Beane" moves in his time, but lacks the flair for drama of Beane in moving players just because (sometimes Ryan and Co. might hold onto guys too long). That said, who would the Twins bring into the General Manager fold from outside, if possible? I'm not overjoyed with in-house possibilities, but in the scheme of things and the "Twins Way" they would suffice. Good solid baseball is still good solid baseball, you can ask for more, but it only happens once the game starts and the on-field activities happen, in which you have little or no control of the outcome. Someone has to win, someone hasto lose.

Kepler COULD be the first baseman of the future. But what do you do with Kepler for two more seasons. Of course, you can play him at Rochester for a full year, moreso at first than in the outfield. You can even hold-him-back a bit in 2017. Then you have the longterm Mauer decision to behold and where do you put him if he desires to play until age 40 or so. Or if the Twins move Sano there. Or Plouffe can play first base. The problem with Plouffe is that he will get a decent arbitration salary this season. But next season his salary would be over $10 million. Is he worth that before going into free agency? Do you sign him for $30-35 million (or more). And, more important, is another team also willing to take that same salary gamble for two years (or more).

Looks like people will be calling general manager Terry Ryan non-stop to pull players away from the Twins!

Pedro Ramos Jim Eisenreich Randy Hundley Garrett Jones Mark Portugal Kyle Lohse Rusty Kuntz Steve Howe

Draftees who played in the minors but not for the Twins: Jay Bell Tim Belcher Eddie Leon Travis Lee Oddbie McDowell

Suzuki has some value due to his iron-man work behind-the-plate and the cost of his contract. But then the Twins would have to move Mauer back to catcher.

What names do the Twins have to actually add to the 40-man that will either be Rule 5 drafted, or walk as minor league free agents? Isthere some name in the low minors that we have to protect from the minor league portion of that draft? Who on the roster can be let go and not sign for more elsewhere or given a better opportunity (Boyer, Thompson, Darnell). Would Achter or Tonkin be claimed? In arbitration, do we keep Fien? What is the ultimate fate of Brian Duensing at this point? If we jettison Herrmann and Fryer, are there other catchers along thhe same line that can be signed to minor league contracts (not named Paulino or de san Miguel). Barring a trade, there are at least a dozen names on the Twins roster than can be replaced by similar palyers, possibly for less monies, and signed to an "invite to spring training" minor league contract. And, finally, besides Berrios...what Twins minor league players might make an impact (or just an appearance) in 2016? Hopefully with an intention to stay.

I wouldn't trade both Dozier and Polanco at this point. And, yes, agree that Dozier may be at his highest value to a potential trade partner. But he still wouldn't be most trade aprtner's first choice. Plouffe will draw tire kickers, and Ryan will throw his name out there for some unrealistic returns to fulfill Twins needs. But the Twins are at a disadvantage at the moment. Teams know Plouffe should be available, and the Twins will want to move him for someone between now and the end of next season. They know if the Twins choose to play Sano at third, then Plouffe is without a home. ibson could be apckaged nicely with Plouffe or Dozier to a high end prospect catcher and...someone. That might be the best deals for any of the three above, who are probably the Twins msot valuable tradechips. The Twins also have some outfield depth and could deal Rosario, Hicks or find a taker for Arcia. But they would purely be dealing future promise rather than bonafide results. I like the current depth of Rosario, Hicks, Arcia and Buxton with Kepler and Walker in the wings and possibly making a decision to move someone come 2017, but not 2016. The best bet for Noalsco is that he pitches brilliantly and someone takes him off our hands at the trade deadline (and Milone could be a factor then, too, as he'll be too expensive to bring back AFTER next season. But the further evelopment or usage of May and Meyer will determine moves of that sort. Jepsen has value. Perkins has flattened out, but will always have value as a set-up lefty if he doesn't return to closer status...but not until he pitches a full season pain free again.

Can we trust Sano at third, which means we can trade Plouffe. But we are shedding 20+ home runs. Then who do we have DH. Arcia or Vargas. Vargas would be a nice bench bat because he can play first. Arcia should be given further opportunities to be the 4th outfielder/DH...you never know when one of the outfield guys might go down. Of course, we can assume Buxton will start the season at AAA. So, it depends what the Twins do with Plouffe, basically. Then we could pencil in Hunter in some capacity, with the thought that he probably won't last the season as a regular, but would start the season as a regular with Arcia in right, Hicks in center, Hunter at DH (will he insist on playing the field more often than not). But, will he give us some of the same stats as this year, or will Arcia/Vargas come into their own. It ain't easy being a general manager with money to spend. Now, Nolasco.......

Pretty much agree with your choices above. It means we jettison Nolasco and just need a proper abckup behind-the-plate. The Twins have a logjham in the outfield if Buston starts. They have a logjam at first/third/DH if we keep Vargas and Sano and Plouffe and Arcia and Mauer. If Pinto isn't the backup catcher, than we have one less DH candidate. Unless the Twins see the need to upgrade any position (shortstop) with a top-tier free agent, I see few moves during the winter. The Twins have a lot of dead weight in the bullpen. They have to closely look at what each pitcher and prospect brings to the table. Who is a ground ball pitcher. Who gets out righties, lefties or both. Can we have some heat, please. Right now, the list of names of Thompson, O'Rourke, Tonkin, Achter, Graham, especially Boyer, Duensing, Cotts, Darnell and maybe even Pressley are inetrchangable with msot pitchers that will be available as minor league free agents. The Twins could trade from their system (or Plouffe or Arcia) for a more proven arm. They could jettison pretty much all of the above and put equal faith in the guys who were supposed to come up this year. But all of the above (and also Fien) probably don't need to be kept on the 40-man, period. Will they find better work elsewhere? That might be debatable. Could you resign the majority of the above as minor league free agents, probably.