Rosterman

Plouffe is still a keeper...THIS SEASON. Next season, his final arbitration year, he will command north of $10 million. That is the decision on the horizon, and also affects his trade value to another team. Is he worth it? That is the question. If Plouffe IS worth it, you try and sign him, right now, today, for $30-33 million over three years with a 4th year option. If he isn't worth it, you figure out a way to trade him NOW or hope there is a demand for a third baseman in mid-season...and then it becomes the decision of another team to offer the arbitration, or he becomes a free agent and could possibly sign for less (say three years and $24-30 million). Either way, this season and next Plouffe has to play well for financial reward. It's a gamble you take. But either way, he is still tradable for a relief pitcher...but at what level. Again, if you do sign him, than you commit to keeping him at third, or do you move him (shades of Cuddyer) to the outfield. Have the Twins seen enough of Sano in the outfield (no) to know he will work out there. Actually, have the Twins seen enough of Sano at third, in major league situations, to be comfortable with the big guy there. If we parted with Plouffe and Sano wasn't the guy at third, then what do we do. Our troubles seem to be revolving more and more around with Mr. Minnesota Twin, Joe Mauer, who is a franchise player...but..... In the big picture, we would save salary, if we could find a taker. For the next three years he is playing positions -- first base and DH -- that we could put any number of others players in. Plouffe at first, Sano at third. Leave outfield for Kepler. We have Park in the mix. Where do we play Vargas and Arcia. What happens if Walker is the real deal. We all know what Mauer brings to the table. And the Twins will still have to make a further decision on the "Face of the Franchise" again...if Joe wishes to play beyond his contract.

The only way the Twins would really really add pieces would be if they played Billy Beane ball and started trading massive amounts of current pieces for different pieces. But to do so, people have to want anything that you have to offer. The guys you want to keep, other teams want (Sano, Buxton, Berrios). But so many others could be traded to strengthen, say, catcher, corner outfield, bullpen. Who says you can't move Santana or Gibson or Hughes. If you believe in bullpen prospects, take a buyer for Perkins. Will anyone take Suzuki off your hands? Would moving Plouffe really solve problems (he will be expensive in arbitration in 2017). Otherwise, we can pretty much write in the names of the 25-man roster with Santana/Nunez/Arcia getting jobs because of being out-of-option. The biggest question is Buxton, does he start in the minors? Then who plays centerfield? And if ANY of these bullpen minor league signings pan out, what current 40-man roster names do we say goodbye!

The question is do we think he would be a better third baseman than Plouffe, if the Twins decide in the next few months to sign Plouffe to a long-term deal (at this point, after arbitration, the Twins have to make that decision). Or will Sano be better off at first base? But then, can you park Park at first base in the near future. Better yet, would we rather see Sano just be a designed hitter, shades of David Ortiz, for his entire career. And if he produces like David, he will be worth $300 million long-term for 15 years or so. Wow! Is third base harder than the outfield, waiting for the ball to be hit your way, making perfect throws towards second or first? Would he be better running patterns in the outfield and making the occasional throw towards home plate? Do we NOT want him in the field at all?

He would have to be lights out in the early weeks to not make the first cut, since he is not on the 40-man. As someone mentioned, injuries could play a key, but even then the Twins would probably go with someone of the 40-man and have him go thru spring minor league camp and a couple of starts at AAA to get stretched out and comfortable.

The Twins added Buxton to the mix, although they really didn't have to. Did it benefit him? You want to say "yes" that he got a look at major league pitching and if he produced bigtime, all the more better for it (shades of Rosario). Does he need more seasoning? He has spring training to prove that he worked hard on any troubles in his bat during the winter. Sano lit up the skies. But was he perfect? He has to continue to work to stay in the major leagues. And I'm sure that he will come to spring training an improved batter. How the Twins may screw him up position wise will be the fault of the front office. 2-3 games with Berrios in the rotation. If he shined, we would've been IN the playoffs. That's a big pill for the front office to swallow...but the front office is content to call the team contenders and that they were "in the hunt" until the last day. Perception going into the next season and making those season ticket sales. AT some point you have to stop playing the "options" game, the "how much salary do we eat" game (they ate Stauffer and they ate Lamb). You go with the best 25. If the guy can't make your team, who is to say he will ever make another team. If you worry too much about service time and free agency, then you should get out of the game. It is part of the game. Guys can be young free agents. You can gamble and lose signing players long-term. There is no guarantee...and the players themselves play this game, too. You can let Buxton, Berrios, Kepler (and even Sano) play another season or two in the minors. No problem. You have that power as team owner. You can throw Hicks to the wolves for a couple of seasons, you can get yelled at for playing Gomez back when many of us cried "minor seasoning needed." You can pull plugs on players of ability because of service time, or create a mess, like the front office has done with Arcia...do we keep him or let him walk. The Twins, sadly, didn't need to add Berrios to the 40-man this past September, although it would've done wonders for the kid to even sit on the bench. They didn't need to add him STILL this off-season. That is their choice. I hope he comes to spring training and shows that he is the dominate of the five considered for the rotation and make the Twins make salary choices.

If anything, you do know what you have in Ben Revere and can work around him accordingly. Is that good, or is that bad? They lost Span, who many felt wasn't worth a three-year deal at this time (except the Giants). He's an inexpensive, for now, option in centerfield. And, yes, we don't have to devise trades for Storen now. Surprised that Toronto will include another player AND money in the deal.

We could argue that Hendriks was maybe pushed, or not sorted out (starter vs. relief). Waldrop was considered a prospect to watch but ended up being a back of the bullpen guy. Wimmers IS still in the mix, somehow. Will he end up in Minnesota, or get a minor chance somewhere else. Thinking of an outfield of Hicks, Benson and Revere was not out-of-the-question, and the power potential of Arcia would've filled in nice at DH. Like Sano, he was young and not ready at all abck then (as was the Kepler!).

Catching has become a two-player sport. You need a backup. It seems teams CAN BE happy with a backstop playing 80-90 games on a regular basis. If someone can do 120, you have a gem. If they play 140...wow. You always have to look at league average for hitting and fielding. Yes, a catcher can throw out baserunners, but they do need a little help from the starter on the mound, too. Not that you don't play to win in the minors (you do), but so much more happens on the field in the majors. Can you survive with a no-hit, good call/throwout catcher in the lineup (think back to Phil Roof, Jerry Zimmerman). Do you hope to get a Brian Harper or Russ Nixon-type? But the bigger question is always depth. What happens when the guy goes down, which seems to be happening more and more these days with the concussion concern. It looks like the Twins may have adequate defense behind-the-plate for the next decade with some okay pop from a couple of guys, but no one looks like someone that will score big when they enter arbitration or free agency (although there are a couple of young unknowns who might just do that). And once you start removing ANY of the names above from behind-the-plate, how might they fit into the Twins future plans?

It is a game of numbers. Besides May and Berrios, the Twins really have no other starter ready to jump into the mix, and the Twins seem happy to have May in the bullpen for now. Duffey was a surprise, but... What hurt the most was that names like Nolasco and Milone didn't increase their value to other clubs and have, thus, become an albatross on the Twins mound. Milone could find some seekers after arbitration establishes his salary. It always hurts when a player doesn't produce for the team and thus loses value. Same can be said for prospects such as Santana, Vargas and Arcia, who could've been decent tradebait. Sometimes you have to trade your youth, like Hicks, for parts that you need. Would the Twins consider an offer for, say, Rosario now and hope that he doesn't have a soph slump? It is what makes the job difficult. Do you grab a Span (or as lasy year, a Hunter) to keep you in the game and lose an Arcia? Do you keep pumping the youth thru your clubhouse hoping one sticks? For msot players, do you actually find out their team worth in year two, or year four, or year seven? How long do you wait? I feel the Twins bullpen is largely set with expectations on future arrivals rather than dole out a three-year contract to some arm. I will agree that more stock has been put into the potential worth of Fien than he probably deserves at this point. And we have to hope Jepson is still a hot set-up guy. Yes, I would like a more established third man (preferably a lefty) to be added to the mix, but see that the Twins may be able to cobble together a one-season surprise from their minor league invites. It won't be glamorous, and we may have a tagteam like last year's Thompson/O'Rourke (argh!) but I am hoping that those rotation arms will get us into the 7th inning consistently and that the Twins may have 4 pitchers that throw 200 innings of 4.00 ball.

I like the ENDS lineup. Could live with that. Even if Arcia replaces Plouffe, say, and Sano goes to third base. What makes this even more exciting is if this is the lineup (with Kepler somewhere) for 2017.

Better yet...how many innings will each of the members of the starting rotation reach in 2016. Will we have 2-3 break 200 innings. Will all of the top five at least break 150 innings?

It's bad enough to have a strikeout prone guy batting fourth, but also have one bat second AND third. Mauer is there to drive home a leadoff runner. Dozier is NOT your perfect #2 hitter because of his K's. When you egt to 4th and 5th in the order, you either got the long ball out (sacrifice) or live with the homer/strikeout choice. Even moving a Rosario up in the order is a tough call because of his K's. The Twins have to work on NOT STRIKING OUT. We don't know how Murphy will eprform. And Buxton, if he can put the ball in play, will be a godsend.

Yeah, the Twins have a .500 starting rotation and no one that you truly expect to win 15+ games. Sad to say, that is not good. Of course, if the line-up scores 4 runs in each and every game, the W-L total will improve. The joy is that you at least expect that ALL these guys will go at least six innings, and maybe 7, depending on the status of the bullpen.

In the sixties my family had a business executive friend who worked for Cargill. Every spring he would take me to the Twins "Welcome Home" Luncheon. Back then, they were pretty much just bigshots from around town. And every year I would show up with my Topps cards from the previous year and go right down the entire front-of-the-house table at some point, the players getting a kick out of seeing their card (only one card back then) as well as a kid in a suit amidst all these executives. I quit the autographing for awhile and got back into it, with my most memorable experience being the first person to write to Pat Neshek getting an autographed card and, I'ma shamed to say, calling him an outfielder. Of course, Pat is one of the most accessible of players ever. But a bonus Neshek event was proposing to my wife on the scoreboard in a game started by Matt Garza which Pat ended up winning for the Twins. He has, of course, become our pitcher and I look forward to attending at least one game when he is visiting, shouting him down from the outfield pre-game. And I used to love the Metrodome, with the bullpen down the third baseline. I would choose those September afternoon games when no one would be in the park and I would have the whole row for myself before and during the game and could interact with the current and future bullpen throughout the game. Check out www.twinscards.com where we keep track of Twins players - majors and minors - and you can check out autographs from different collections (I'm "rosterman"). After the New Year, we should have the beginnings of the 2016 look at the Twins roster and minor league system.

Liriano WAS NOT going to stay with the Twins. We got Hernandez (late of the St. Paul Saints) and Escobar. Francisco did little or nothing with the White Sox. He was a free agent. The Twins did have the ability to sign him (and probably had a better chance than if they had just let him walk at season's end). Many of us thought Pittsburgh overpaid for Liriano. But the reality is that there was some bad feelings between the Twins and Liriano at this point. We can also complain that the Twins allowed Hunter to walk, not to mention Nathan and Cuddyer (both of whom some parties thought would want to stay with the Twins for x-amount of dollars). With the Twins current state of the affairs at the time, both parties could've been spun for some prospect rather than zilch. We can argue that Ryan dealt depth once (but maybe not twice) to shore up the pitching staff...getting Worley to step into the immediate rotation (which he badly terribly did) and two youngsters who increased our minor league looksee at the moment, but shows you how much stock to put into minor league pitching stars, especially when someone like Duffey comes out of nowhere and shine (maybe briefly). We want to make the playoffs. We want to win the World Series. That is something EVERY TEAM wishes to do and the Twins have had better success in many of those areas than probably half of the teams in baseball, although some of the lowlies like Kansas City and Pittsburgh and even Houston are showing signs of long term dominance in the pennant drives.

Right now, today, this is a fine fine thought. But not totally sure how it would play out in 2016. Yes, going to the bullpen was a setback for May in terms of innings workload. But is he better than Santana/Hughes at this point. Duffey is still an unknown. I like the thought of him pitching fulltime, but then remember Scott Diamond (yes, a pitcher Duffey is nothing like at the least). My major point would be that with a healthy Nolasco/Santana/Gibson/Hughes pitching and producing numbers that we assume they can do...across the board adequate with no downs, then Berrios SHOULD be pumped into the fifth spot to take his licks and learn the major leagues coming out of spring training. The Big Four SHOULD give us at least 60 victories in their 128 or so starts. That should happen...if the Twins offense scores an average of four runs per game. That's just it...none of the Big Four starters are pitchers that pitch to 2 runs per nine innings, let alone 3 runs consistently per nine inninings. Nada. Zilch. Berrios ahs that potential. Yes, we want to think Duffey also shows signs of doing so. We want to believe that May can also do so. But we can't quite stomach that Santana or Hughes have the possibility of being an above average predictable pitcher. Are the Twins holding back prospects? Right now, it is only May and Berrios. Last year it was May and Meyer. We still have Stewart, Gonsalves and more in the wings, but not in 2016. Trust that the brains in the front office do know what they are doing and will shed salary (Nolasco) if he doesn't reprove himself, will let Milone walk if he is fa from adequate, will ease May back into the rotation hunt, will entertain trade offers for Gibson if we truly have an offense weakness that are sophs and juniors throw at us. Last season, we were complaining about the Twins NOT spending money on free agents. They signed Santana and Pelfrey and extended Hughes (and also gave us Robinson and Stauffer). But then we started to complain that who throw good money at multiple problem solvers, let's just go buy that one big guy. Man, this is a tough business. You try to create a team. You have to monitor prospects. You have to make do or die decisions (Arcia may be another than becomes a mistake...either by keeping him or letting him go). Anyone ever try and juggle? It ain't easy...and you do it day in and day out and still drop balls, no matter how good you may think you are.

Hardly the end of Arcia. The potential of keeping HIM as the fourth outfielder and bench bad is HUGE (Vargas has options), because Santana or even Escobar/Nunez could play the outfield. But Buxton has a bit of a play here. I think the twins have been passive in the movement of Plouffe to keep some established value. Wait to see how spring training pans out. Sano may still end up at third. I do hope they bring the BEST rotation north like last year's threat to put Pelfrey in the bullpen. Nolasco WILL BE in the roster (sans disabled list) and if he needs to be the waaaaaay back in the bullpen guy, so be it. But Duffey could start in the minors, Milone is iffy, and who knows -- someone will open the season on the DL or maybe even be suspended. The Twins need three bodies in the bullpen. They have a bunch of lefties to choose from (I say Abad and Rogers make it) and need one more righty (a long guy, perhaps) and Presssssssssley is the one to beat. But that doesn't mean you can't add someone. Of course, It is still going to be an interesting spring training. You also have to look at each and every player and how they play out in the 2017 and 2018 plans and think accordingly. Who has a short leash and can possibly be replaced by mid-season with a prospect. What does it take to create value in a player rather than just release them. How much salary will the Twins be willing to eat if push comes to shove. And ALL eyes are still on Mauer! The Face of the Franchise!

A.J. Achter was also waived off the Phillies roster but was claimed by the Angels who had a 40-man spot. At this point, I would accept the minor league assignment if I was Pinto as a potential job is still a job.

Three seasons away. What will the Twins rotation look like, or who will the Twins trade to get a top-of-the-order pitcher because of depth. Dozier will be expendable. Park, by then, will be a washout or tradebait. The Twins will have made a decision on Arcia by then. Two years out Walker will probably be the major DH candidate if he doesn't totally strikeout at AAA. Names like Gordon and Vielma could be prospect tradebait. I see the Twins long-terming Buxton, Sano and Kepler. But Rosario? If he has a 2016 similar to 2015, he will be tradebait as the Twins look to rid themselves of Nolasco, move on from Milone, and decide if they want Kyle Gibson to remain a Twin for a contract or not. The weak link is catching. The guy has to work with major league pitchers, throw runners out, and be durable behind-the-plate. If he hits or doesn't hit may not matter, as you can always have ONE weak link in the line-up. Also, the Joe Mauer question going into 2018. They would have to make him a qualifying offer in 2019, give him a lifetime contract, or look to rade him before OR in his walk year, if there is any interest. Mauer's next two seasons will seal his fate...maybe so much so that NO ONE will touch his final year contract anyways.

Y'know...it wouldn't be that bad of an investment. Noalsco alone put us a quarter of the way there.

You can't write Duffey in for certain. He can still be optioned out. Milone still has to earn the job. Being a lefty helps, but if he stinks...look for him to go back to the minors, unless all otehr lefties really flame out. Nolasco will be given a long look. The joy of spring training, msot pitchers throw a couple of innings a span...and the decision can be made after 3-4 looks if May should start stretching his arm or not. The bigger question is why Fien? Pressley and Graham can both go to the minors (Graham IS a stater candidate). But, again, why Casey? Meyer has to earn the job and DO the Twins want him as a starter?

What can we expect from the rotation: DREAM W-L records Ervin Santana 18-10 (probably 12-13) Phil Hughes 19-8 (probably 15-14) Kyle Gibson 16-11 (probably 12-12) Tom Milone 8-7 (probably 6-10) Tyler Duffey 12-8 (probably 6-6) Ricky Noalsco 21-7 (probably 1-7) Unless the offense really picks up and is dominate, the Twins have a starting rotation capable of pitching to a .500 win/loss record. You'd like to see the starters bring in at east 65 wins, 70 or more if possible...leaving the bullpen to cobble together 15-20 wins between them. The Twins still will need to score 4 or more runs a game to get a win. Every game.

Last year the offense was...in simple words...close to a disaster. High strikeouts amongst candidates, most players regressed in the stats that people see flashed on the scoreboard. The Twins did do better, it seemed, offensively in moving runners and scoring runners when it mattered. Three major factors: (1) How players prepare themselves in the off-season to keep their natural skill sets sharp. (2) How coaching works with the players in a correct and understandable way to eliminate some faults. (3) Line-up construction and how the team works together on the field. Right now, it is a team. There are no individual stars. Mauer came back to earth. Sano will have to be put in a fielding position which may change his game-to-game mindset. Park has to adapt to major league pitching. The Twins have a lot of solid players, but they still are strikeout prone (especially Arcia, Sano and Rosario -- the outfield -- and Dozier isn't far behind). It will be the same group as last year minus Torii Hunter and Aaron Hicks. The Twins need a Buxton at the top of the lineup, but like Hicks, will he be ready. The Twins would love to find a permanent place for Arcia, but where does that put Rosario if Sano is also in the outfield. Plouffe is almost too valuable, at this point, to rid yourself of with the questions surrounding Park, Sano and Arcia...but a hard decision has to be made to keep him longer term or make sure you get value for him out of spring training or, at the least, mid-season. Sano shined as a slugger. He has the potential to be more than that. Rosario did what was necessary. He's what you wanted, or expected, for a corner outfielder, but was far from spectacular (think Jacque Jones). The coaching staff and manager have their work cut out for them, considering that don't see Suzuki getting better and Murphy being adequate at the most. What will be the perfect Twins lineup and CAN it come out strong to start the season. I expect the rotation to be solid though far from spectacular, with short leashes on Nolasco and Milone. But I see the potential for ALL starters giving us at least six innings so educe the concern for an across the board strong bullpen. I think the division will be stronger overall, with Chicago making some strides, Cleveland getting their youngsters into full form, and Detroit making at least one more move to position themselves as contenders.

Or one will be a designated hitter.

Yes, it will be interesting to see next year when an 83-win team could fall to fifth place rather than be a second place team. Of course, besides the middle-of-the-road rotation and a shattered bullpen, the other key is team batting leader Joe Mauer. Looks like they found their 30+ old relief pitcher, perhaps.