ToddlerHarmon

I originally posted this in forums but realized this is more of a blog post:
 
As we have seen over the years when given opportunities to play every day Eduardo Escobar shines.Filling in for Miguel Sano so far this year he has shown he has the bat to be 3rd baseman, posting a .993 OPS while hitting 15 doubles and 7 home runs in 2018.
 
Over his career Escobar has primarily played the left side of infield playing 322 games at short and 196 at 3rd base.However, he has played a handful of games at 2nd base in his career.The opportunities have been limited in Minnesota over the last 4 or 5 years with Dozier being a fixture there.
 
However, it has been well publicized Brian Dozier would like to test free agency this winter.And if he finds a new home, there is suddenly a glaring hole on the right side of the infield.Granted, Dozier isn't doing much to increase his value as of now, but Dozier is the type of hitter who can go on absolute tears and make month long slumps disappear, which would likely increase his value again to levels the Twins may not want to pay.
 
This is where Escobar comes in.Also a free agent at the end of the season, his reputation is not that of Dozier yet.Which means he likely will cost much less on the open market, if he gets there.
 
In small sample sizes defensively at 2nd base Eduardo's defensive metrics compare relatively close to Dozier.Escobar is nearly two years younger than Dozier as well.
 
Additionally, Escobar's ability to play multiple positions gives the Twins flexibility into the future.For example if the Twins can sign him for a 3-4 year deal this off-season he can be penciled in to be the 2nd baseman in 2019 and at least the beginning of 2020.But if Royce Lewis comes knocking in 2020 and continues to be the Shortstop everyone hopes he becomes Jorge Polanco can then be slid over to 2nd base and Esco back to 3rd assuming Sano will be a 1st baseman/DH by that time.
 
I don't think this is outside the realm of possibilities and personally believe this is a great option for the Twins future infield.
 
* Disclaimer - I am a very big Eduardo Escobar fan and am long Escobar stock.

If there is one thing we can all agree on regarding the 2018 Minnesota Twins, it’s that they have a higher floor than their 2017 counterparts. With key additions in the rotation, bullpen, and at DH, Minnesota baseball fans are eagerly anticipating the start of a new season. With a higher floor, established pieces are going to have to maintain, or raise the level of their game in order to keep their jobs. Most notably; Taylor Rogers.
 
Rogers was drafted by the Twins in the 11th round in 2012 out of the University of Kentucky. Rogers exceeded rookie limits in the 2016 season and is not eligible for arbitration until 2020. With that amount of team control its important the Twins what they have, and what they don’t have in the 27 year old left-hander.
 
MLB Debut
Rogers made his MLB debut in 2016, pitching 61 innings and excelled. Rogers managed a 3.96 ERA on the back of a 9.39 K/9, 2.35 BB/9, and GB% of 51%, all really solid numbers. Rogers’ xFIP of 3.47 was indicative that he might be scratching the surface of being an excellent relief option for the Twins. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Rogers had pretty dramatic splits in 2016. Against lefties, he put together an excellent .202 BAA, .286 SLG, and .281 BAbip. Conversely, Rogers struggled against righties, to the tune of a .291 BAA, .462 SLG, and .348 BAbip. This led most to the conclusion that Rogers could be a viable long term option as a LOOGY. The first half of Rogers 2017 however, would call that conclusion into question.
 
2017: A Tale of two Halves
‘It was the best of times, it was the worst of times’. Words from Charles Dickens which are applicable to Rogers’ 2017, which oscillated between impressive, and desolate.
 
First Half: 1.87 BB/9, 0.80 HR/9, .333 SLG
Second Half: 5.73 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9, .434 SLG
 
In the first half of the 2017 season, the Twins bullpen was in flux. Not only did the big league club use a record 16 starting pitchers over the course of the season, a slew of quadruple A types saw time in the pen, long before an incredible second half surge propelled the team to the second wild card berth. With a stable bullpen, Rogers would likely faced predominantly LHH. The Twins however, were struggling, and Rogers began to see RHH with increasing frequency. Surprisingly, he delivered in a big way. Prior to the end of June, Rogers managed an incredible 1.35 ERA against RHH, with a stingy .257 SLG, and .227 BAA. For the Twins, this was a boon of Hildenbergian proportions. Overall, in the first half of 2017, Rogers threw to 33% more RHH than LHH, a statistic which evened in the second half of the season, but not significantly enough to prevent a major regression against righties, evidenced by his 5.79 ERA, .355 BAA, and .581 SLG the rest of the way against RHH.
 
It’s almost a certainty that Rogers’ first half numbers against RHH were an aberration. A return to dominance against LHH (he had been solid but unspectacular against them in the first half) helped mitigate the damage of an awful second half. All in all Rogers finished the season with number which would lead most to consider him a left-handed specialist. Rogers offers more than Buddy Boshers, but not a ton more.
 
Pitch Mix Overview
Rogers’ pitch mix is important to understanding why he suddenly fell off a cliff against RHH in the second half of 2017. Rogers relies on a sinker, four seam fastball, and a curveball. Additionally, he mixes in a changeup pretty infrequently (only 4% of the time in 2017). Rogers has above average velocity on most of his pitches, his fastball generating a ton of fly balls, and his changeup generating a decent number of groundballs.
 
Rogers threw his changeup minimally to begin with but decreasingly frequently as the 2017 season progressed, ditching the pitch altogether in July. Coincidentally, July was the worst month of the year for Rogers, who put together an ERA of 8.18 and gave up a .614 SLG that month. This makes sense. The changeup is an equalizing pitch to throw to opposite handed hitters (that’s why Johan Santana was so dominant). Despite not having a great changeup to begin with, Rogers was continually being put in tough situations against RHH without a weapon to neutralize them. This, in addition to an uncharacteristically high walk rate, led Rogers to an awful second half.
 
Waiting in the Wings
On one hand, there is reason for optimism for Rogers in 2018. Despite having a pretty rough spring training, it’s likely that his elevated walk rate from the second half of the season is a mechanical issue which is now resolved (2 walks in 11 IP in spring training would suggest as much). On the other hand, his splits are real, Rogers might not be a true LOOGY, but he isn’t a pitcher the Twins should be relying on to get out RHH on a consistent basis.
 
Additionally, the Twins have some interesting arms waiting in the wings. Gabriel Moya (owner of an excellent changeup) is a candidate much more likely to be successful against both LHH and RHH due to his pitch mix and deceptive mechanics. Tyler Jay is another candidate to be a backend bullpen option if he can stay healthy throughout the 2018 season. If either of those pitchers have strong seasons, they may challenge for Rogers’ spot. Zach Duke is already a better iteration of a LHP who can dominate LHH due to his ability to generate ground balls instead of fly-balls. With a minor league option remaining, don’t be surprised if Rogers ends up in Rochester if he doesn’t get off to a strong start.

We've made it, it's finally here, the last day without meaningful baseball for the next six months has arrived. On March 29th, the Minnesota Twins will kick off the 2018 Major League Baseball season with Jake Odorizzi toeing the rubber against Dylan Bundy and the Baltimore Orioles. Having offered some opinions on the league-wide awards, I figured now would be a good time to dive into my predictions for the hometown club.
 
Going into the year, expectations are relatively high for Paul Molitor's group. They're coming off a Postseason berth and have the advantage of playing in a weak division. Although the gap may not yet have been closed on the Cleveland Indians, there's no argument that it hasn't been made substantially smaller (at least on paper). If the Twins are going to make noise in the Central, American League, and across Major League Baseball as a whole this year, these are the guys who will be a big part of the process.
 
Team MVP- Miguel Sano
 
Despite being the reigning MVP, and entering a contract year, I think Sano overtakes Brian Dozier. Coming off an offseason that saw plenty of ups and downs, the third basemen appears all system go. There's no suspension looming, and the rod inserted into his leg doesn't appear to be holding him back in the slightest. Although the numbers don't mean much, Sano turned in an impressive spring, and they bat is absolutely going to play. I'd bet heavily on this being the first 30 home run season of his career, and pushing towards 50 is hardly out of the question if he can stay healthy. Twins fans have been waiting for his emergence since being a teenager, and Miguel Sano is finally ready to explode.
 
Pitcher of the Year- Jake Odorizzi
 
A season ago, Orodizzi posted the worst ERA of his career, was above 5.00 FIP for the first time, and walked a career worst 3.8 batters per nine. Why in the world would he be the best Twins pitcher at 28 years old? Well, I think there's plenty to be made of the back injury that he pitched through for the bulk of the season. Odorizzi isn't going to get much of a defensive boost as he already played in front of a good one with the Rays. I do believe he has middle-of-the-rotation stuff however, and the floor is very high with him. Jose Berrios has the ability to be a better pitcher than Odorizzi, but there's a decent level of volatility there as well.
 
Rookie of the Year- Mitch Garver
 
After finally making his debut in September 2017, I believed that Mitch Garver was deserving of a promotion much earlier. He absolutely raked at Triple-A Rochester, and it's his bat that brings intrigue behind the dish. Pairing with Jason Castro, Paul Molitor (won't but) should platoon his two backstops. Garver can dominate left-handed pitching, and he's more than capable behind the plate. He'll throw out his fair share of would be base stealers, and I'd expect him to be a bright spot for Minnesota. Deviating away from the veteran backstop that offers little in terms of offensive upside, Garver has the talent to be a true threat on his own.
 
Most Improved- Max Kepler
 
Last season saw the emergence of Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and even Jorge Polanco down the stretch. Miguel Sano has been a known commodity for a bit, even if I believe there's more in the tank. This season though, I think we see Max Kepler really begin to come into his own. For a while I've been of the belief that Kepler could be cut from a similar cloth as Christian Yelich. A good defender with adequate speed that has a real ability at the plate. Thus far Kepler has struggled with lefties, and he's yet to really set himself in the batters box. Hitting the 20 home run plateau for the first time is a good bet, and it's really only the tip of his offensive ice berg.
 
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With the 2018 season right around the corner, perhaps the biggest topic in baseball circles right now is player projections. Whether it is for fantasy purposes, or for trying to predict how your favorite team is going to play this season, people can’t get enough of them. So, I decided to create my own projections for each player on the Twins 40-man roster, and then see how my projections stack up versus some of the other more prominent projection systems.
 
The systems that I used to compare are PECOTA, which is found on Baseball Prospectus, along with ZiPS and Steamer, which can both be found on Fangraphs. Please note that not all of the systems use the same formula when calculating WAR. Additionally, the ZiPS projections for playing time assume a full seasons worth of work, even for players who will most likely spend most of the season in the minor leagues.
 
In the first edition we will be looking at the starting pitchers that are currently on the Twins 40-man roster.
 
RHP Jose Berrios
 


These projection systems are notorious for underrating potential year-to-year improvement from younger players. Personally, I see Jose Berrios taking another step forward in 2018. If Berrios can make this step forward, the Twins could be looking at the potential ACE of their staff.
 
RHP Lance Lynn
 


Much has been made about Lance Lynn’s 3.43 ERA in 2017 being much lower than his peripheral stats suggested it should be that. This explains a lot of low expectations that PECOTA and Steamer have for him. While I do see Lynn taking a step back this year, it is hard to see his ERA inflating by nearly a run and a half, especially from a guy who has never had an ERA above 3.97 in his career.
 
RHP Jake Odorizzi
 


In a very similar way to Lynn, Jake Odorizzi put up an ERA in 2017 that was a fair amount lower than his underlying numbers suggested. A couple factors that lead to this were the spike in his walk rate, which was nearly a walk per nine higher than his career average, and the increase in his HR/FB%, which rose from his 9.9% career average prior to 2017, up to 15.5% in 2017. If Odorizzi can bring these numbers back to his career norms, he should have no problem maintaining his numbers from last season.
 
RHP Ervin Santana
 


Ervin Santana got off to a great start last season, posting a 1.75 ERA through May. However, over the last four months of the season, Santana had an ERA over four. Given Santana’s age and track record, it can be expected that we will see more of the latter from Santana in 2018. The big question mark for Santana entering this season will be his ability to come back from the injury to his pitching hand.
 
RHP Kyle Gibson
 


Kyle Gibson is hoping to build off a strong end to 2017, where he posted a 2.92 ERA over his final 8 starts of the season. While this could be looked at as a sign of optimism that Gibson has turned a corner, the truth is Gibson benefited from facing weak offenses in those starts, as not one of his 8 opponents ranked higher than 19th in runs scored.
 
RHP Phil Hughes
 


Phil Hughes is viewed at by many as a thorn in the side of the Twins pitching staff. His inability to stay healthy, along with poor performance when he is healthy, have provided a real weak spot for the Twins over the last couple of seasons. Unfortunately for the Twins, Hughes is still owed $26.4M over the next two seasons, which is about the only thing guaranteeing him a roster spot as we begin 2018.
 
LHP Adalberto Mejia
 


Adalberto Mejia was a fine pitcher for the Twins last season and looked to be a lock for the Twins rotation entering the winter. However, Mejia fell victim to the surprisingly slow offseason, which enabled the Twins to add two new starters to their rotation. With Mejia’s flexibility, given that he could still be optioned, he has become the odd man out in the Twins rotation. Mejia will most likely serve as the first man called up from AAA when the Twins need a spot start throughout the season, or if they need depth due to injuries.
 
LHP Stephen Gonsalves
 


If there is a minor league pitcher that I expect to breakout this year and help the Twins in 2018 it is Stephen Gonsalves. It is hard to remember the last time that the Twins had a pitching prospect with as high of a floor as Gonsalves. Unlike Mejia, whose opportunities with the big club might mostly be dictated on opportunity, Gonsalves has the ability to force the front office to find a spot for him on the MLB roster if he is pitching well enough in Rochester.
 
RHP Fernando Romero
 


The other minor league candidate that has a real shot of forcing his way into the 2018 Twins rotation is Fernando Romero. Romero was lights out throughout the spring and has the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter for the Twins. Romero isn’t as refined of a pitcher as Gonsalves quite yet, but he is quickly closing the gap.
 
RHP Aaron Slegers
 


Much like Mejia, Aaron Slegers is another pitcher who was hurt by the Twins additions of both Odorizzi and Lynn. If it wasn’t for that, Slegers would have had an opportunity to serve a bigger role for the Twins this year than he did in 2017. Though, as it stands, it is looking like Slegers will be pegged into the role of a spot starter again this season.
 
RHP Felix Jorge
 


Felix Jorge made a surprise start for the Twins in 2017, after getting called up from AA. After an unsuccessful outing, he was sent back to Chattanooga, where he continued his strong 2017 for the Lookouts. Jorge will most likely spend much of 2018 in Rochester and may get a spot start or two as a September call-up.
 
LHP Dietrich Enns
 


Acquired as part of the trade that sent Jamie Garcia and cash to the Yankees, Dietrich Enns is a pitcher that has had a lot of success at the minor league level, with a 1.88 ERA over 6 career minor league season. Enns will spend most of the season as part of the deep Rochester pitching staff, but if he is pitching well he will be in consideration to receive a spot start or two throughout the season.
 
RHP Zack Littell
 


As the other piece that the Twins received in the Jamie Garcia trade, Zack Littell is a little bit further away from the bigs than Enns. However, at just 22, and 2/3 of a season at AA under his belt, Littell is a pitcher with definite upside for the Twins. Despite this, Littell still remains a long shot to break through with the Twins before September.
 
RHP Lewis Thorpe
 


Lewis Thorpe was surprised himself when the Twins added him to the 40-man roster last November. It is hard to believe that Thorpe will have much of a shot at helping the big-league team in 2018, as he is still working his way back after missing all of 2015 and 2016 with injuries. Thorpe could see a few relief outings for the Twins in September if he stays healthy.

I have been thoroughly following the Twins minor league farm system for about 2 years now. However, this is the first year that I am analyzing the players and writing blog entries about them. To me, this seemed like a fun and interesting way to view the best players in the Twins farm system and assemble the 2018 Twins MiLB Dream Team!
 
25 Man Roster
Pitchers-
SP Stephen Gonsalves
SP Lewis Thorpe
SP Zack Littell
SP Blayne Enlow
SP Landon Leach
SP/RE Fernando Romero
RE Tyler Jay
RE Brustar Graterol
RE John Curtiss
Catchers-
Ben Rortvedt
Brian Navarreto
David Banuelos
Infield-
1B Brent Rooker
1B Lewin Diaz
MIF Wander Javier
MIF Royce Lewis
MIF Jose Miranda
MIF Nick Gordon
3B Andrew Bechtold
3B Travis Blankenhorn
Outfield-
OF Alex Kirilloff
OF Akil Baddoo
OF Jacob Pearson
OF Max Murphy
OF LeMonte Wade
 
The Lineup
Gordon 2B
Lewis SS
Kirilloff RF
Rooker 1B
Wade LF
Blankenhorn 3B
Rorverdt C
Baddoo CF
Gonsalves P
 
The way I put the pitching staff together is by comparing the pitchers W-L ratio, ERA, SO, and how consistent they have been in past seasons. I put the position players together by comparing the AVG, OBP, SLG and SO to other players from their positions. I did take into consideration how many years the player has been playing in the MiLB. I am very convinced that this lineup will be the most effective because this teams .270/.356/.428 slash line is very impressive for the average age of the players in the lineup being only 22. The pitching staff has a total of 1,971 SO in there MiLB career, with a .280 ERA and this staff limits opposing hitters to a .217 AVG. If there is any players I forgot or any questions that you would like to ask me, then comment down below or email me at tjmac242004@gmail.com.

In the midst of all the talk about Sano and his weight, I got to thinking about the judgments that people make about other people – baseball players and their size – think Altuve or Randy Johnson, their weight, their various physical attributes – like my essay on Pete Gray who over came the fact that he lacked an arm or Jim Abbot and others judged to be handicapped. Perhaps it is the fact that my daughter is deaf that made me think about Dummy Hoy.
“Dummy” Hoy – William Ellsworth Hoy – was known as Dummy because he contracted meningitis at age three and was deaf the rest of his life. And deafness denies the ability to mimic speech so he was also “dumb” or unable to speak. Born in 1862 – during the civil war, he grew up in the same era that baseball grew up.
 
Sent to a school for the deaf in Ohio, he was trained as a cobbler and he had the initiative to go from working in the back of a shop to owning his own shoe shop. The school, like many others felt that a deaf and dumb person was not capable of doing much more than fixing shoes and even then, some people refused to have such a handicapped person fix their shoes. But he persevered, and he also took advantage of the fact that many people went shoeless in the summer and he followed his passion to play baseball. By age of 24, his love of baseball and his constant work on baseball skills attracted a scout and led him to professional baseball, first with a minor league team in Oshkosh, WI under HOF manager Frank Selee and then in 1888 with the Washington Senators. ! As a rookie he stole 82 bases and that record stood until the Ricky Henderson, Maury Will, Vince Coleman era. In his second-year major league season he had OBP of 376m scored 98 runs and stole 33 bases.
 
His career was not a gimmick like the midget of Bill Veeck’s carnival promotions with the St Louis Browns. Dummy Hoy played major league baseball until 1902 and accumulated 32.5 WAR.
 
He also demanded respect and turned down an offer from the Milwaukee Brewers (1880’s team) because the manager laughed at the idea of a deaf/mute thinking he could play baseball. In his career (14 years) he had 2048 hits, a .288 batting average, 596 stolen bases, and a .386 OBPAs a fielder he threw out three men at home in one game and had 45 assists for the White Stockings in 1901.
 
In addition to being deaf and never hearing the roar of the crowd, the call of the umpire, or the sound of his teammates, he was also at a disadvantage as a player who was 5’ 4” and 150 pounds! Jose Altuve would love him.
 
Lacking all the electronics of todays’ ballpark, Hoy was at a disadvantage, not being able to hear the umpire call balls and strikes. He asked his 3B coach to signal the ball and strike call to him and eventually got various signals to coordinate with teammates. Asking the umpires to use hand signals began the current system umpires use for outs, strikes, balls, fouls. But the HOF credits umpire Bill Klem for this even though Klem came after Dummy Hoy retired.
 
The fans, appreciating his skill and determination did not yell and scream when he did something outstanding, instead they stood and waved their arms and hats in salute. He later replied, “It is not enough that the deaf candidate for baseball honors has the necessary ability, he assuredly must have the nerve and courage to even apply for a trial.”
 
He finished his career with the minor league Los Angeles LooLoos of the Pacific Coast League with 156 runs, 46 stolen bses and 419 put outs. But in many ways his final play in his career was the most amazing of all professional players. A ball was hit deeply to the outfield and in those days, fans were allowed to stand in the outfield – often there was no fence. He was determined and charged into the fans in very deep centerfield and when he encountered a horse, he jumped on the horses back, and then he used the horse as a springboard to leap and catch the ball!
 
With a deaf wife, they raised to very successful hearing children and he took on the raising of his nephew when he was orphaned at three. That nephew went on to establish the Helm’s bakery and become a millionaire who supported the Olympics. Hoy was put in the Cincinnati Reds HOF – in 1896 while playing for the Reds he led the league in homeruns with FOUR. He was also named in the Deaf Athletes HOF and should be in the MLB HOF. Former teammates – Honus Wagner, Connie Mack, Clark Griffith, and Sam Crawford – all in the HOF – tried unsuccessfully to get him in. In 1961 he tossed out the first pitch in the third game of the World Series and died in December of that year.
 
The number of deaf players is very small but perseverance will mean that there will be more. http://www.infobarrel.com/Deaf_Baseball_Players_Who_Made_the_Major_Leagues

After the addition of Logan Morrison over the weekend, it left many in Twins Territory wondering how would he fit into the lineup. Including the Twins Daily twitter account.
 


 
This question drew a number of different responses from Twins fans, so I decided to dive into the numbers and construct what I believe to be the ideal Twins lineup. Just as it is worded in the tweet, I took this approach from the perspective that Sano will be able to play third base this season. I also see the lineup being constructed very differently depending on if the Twins are facing a righty or a lefty, so I created a lineup for both. So, let’s get into it.
 

Against Right-Handed Starters


 
1st Joe Mauer 1B: Mauer is the ideal fit for the Twins leadoff position. His 0.384 OBP in 2017, ranked 5th among all qualified American League hitters. This ability to get on base is key for the leadoff role, as it gives the heart of the order a base-runner to drive in.
 
2nd Brian Dozier 2B: Dozier has spent the last season and a half in the leadoff spot for the Twins. Over that time, Dozier has hit 59 home runs. Unfortunately, just 25% of those home runs have been with at least one runner on base. By comparison the MLB average, over that time, is 41%. The biggest reason for this being that the leadoff hitter has the highest percentage of their plate appearances coming with nobody on-base, and by a wide margin at that.
 
3rd Logan Morrison DH: Last season Logan Morrison mashed righties to the tune of a .251/.365/.548 slash line, along with 32 home runs. Morrison’s 137 wRC+ against righties would have been the best mark on the Twins in 2017.
 
4th Miguel Sano 3B: I previously sited the fact that leadoff hitters have the smallest percentage of their plate appearances coming with runners on-base as the reason why the Twins should take Dozier out of the leadoff role. Well that same reasoning holds true as to why Sano fits perfect as the Twins clean-up hitter. Year in and year out, the 4th hitter in the lineup sees a higher percent of their plate appearances coming with runners on base than any other spot in the order. Last year that number stood at 48.6%.
 
5th Eddie Rosario LF: 2017 was a real breakout season for Eddie Rosario at the plate. Rosario saw much of that production come against right-handed pitchers, as his 135 wRC+ against them lead the team.
 
6th Max Kepler RF: Kepler’s struggles against lefties last season were well documented. However, Kepler excels against righties, and last year gathered a .272/.343/.484 slash line against them. Kepler also collected 47 of his 53 extra-base-hits in 2017 off of right-handed pitchers.
 
7th Jorge Polanco SS: Polanco really turned his offensive production around in the last two months of the season. Over that time Polanco collected a .393 wOBA against righties, the 21st highest mark in Major League Baseball (minimum 150 plate-appearances).
 
8th Jason Castro C: As the left-handed hitting member of the Twins catching duo, Castro will probably get a majority of the starts against right-handed starting pitchers. Castro is a solid hitting threat, and can put up numbers that most teams would take from a catcher hitting in the 8th spot in the order.
 
9th Byron Buxton CF: Even though Buxton made great strides at the end of last season, much of that production came against left-handed pitching. With the strength that the rest of the lineup possess against righties, Buxton will really help the Twins turn their lineup back over hitting 9th.
 
The Twins might have one of the best lineups against right-handed pitchers in all of baseball. This is a great situation to be in given that a large majority of their games will come against right-handed starters, especially in the AL Central.
 
 
 
 

Against Left-Handed Starters


 
1st Byron Buxton CF: Despite his rough start to the season, Buxton still finished with the Twins’ 3rd highest wOBA against lefties in 2017. His eye at the plate against left-handed pitchers is very strong, as he produced a 0.365 OBP against them last season.
 
2nd Joe Mauer 1B: As you may have noticed, I really like the idea of Joe Mauer hitting right behind Byron Buxton. The reason for this being that the best type of hitter to place behind a premier base stealing threat is a high-contact singles hitter, as it maximizes the benefit of stealing a base to get into scoring position. Additional, batting Mauer 2nd gives the Twins two strong on-base threats ahead of Dozier and Sano, who are two of the best right-handed power hitters in the league.
 
3rd Brian Dozier 2B: Normally you would like to see the lineup’s best hitter in the 2-hole. However, given the way the Twins lineup is constructed against lefties, I think their best chance to score runs is trying to get as many people as they can on-base in front of Dozier, so he can make the most of all the power that he has against them.
 
4th Miguel Sano 3B: I don’t really know what else there is to say, except Sano is just the ideal clean-up hitter for the Twins. Sano also provides great protection hitting right behind Dozier.
 
5th Logan Morrison DH: Much has been made about Morrison’s scorching numbers against right-handed pitchers in 2017. So, the fact that Morrison was still a solid hitter against lefties in 2017 might surprise you. In fact, his 109 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers would have been the 4th best mark by a Twin with at least 75 plate-appearances against a lefty last season.
 
6th Jorge Polanco SS: Perhaps the best part of Polanco’s late season turnaround was the fact that he was very productive from both sides of the plate. With his ability to be an all-around hitter as both a righty and a lefty, he could really help fill a hole in the Twins lineup against lefties.
 
7th Mitch Garver C: Garver posted strong numbers in AAA Rochester last season, and earned a call-up to the bigs at the end of the year. Garver’s right-handed bat could bring some much needed pop against lefties. If he shows that he can produce at the Major League level, Garver might see himself move up a few spots in the order.
 
8th Eddie Rosario LF: With all of the production that Rosario had against righties last season, those numbers didn’t cross over much to lefties, as he produced a mere .682 OPS against them. The most troubling part is the fact that he drew just 5 walks in 183 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers.
 
9th Robbie Grossman/Zach Granite RF: Baring an injury to either Buxton, Rosario or Kepler, I do not see both Robbie Grossman and Zach Granite on the MLB roster this season. With that being said, I see the 9th spot in the order against lefties going to whichever player makes the team.
 
Clearly the Twins lineup against left-handed pitchers isn’t nearly as strong as it is against righties. Given that realization, I think the lineup against left-handed starters will be a lot more interchangeable. I see this as a perfect opportunity to give some of the regulars a day off, and plug in some of the other bench pieces.
 
I’m sure there are many of you who probably disagree with the way that I constructed these lineups. I would love to hear any changes that you would make to them, and your reasoning behind it.

A Closer Look


 
 
At this point, with the Twins busy Presidents Day weekend now officially come to a close, it can be said that most people (and those who frequent Twins Daily, especially) are aware that the hometown club completed a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi. The trade, first reported on Saturday night, had the Twins receiving Jake Odorizzi from the Rays in exchange for mid-level shortstop prospect Jermaine Palacios. Many were waiting for the other shoe to drop, certainly the Twins were not going to get Odorizzi - straight up - for a single prospect, and certainly not if that prospect was outside of their top 10 or 15 rankings.
 
After all, Jermaine Palacios, while a nice prospect and grades well - especially defensively - is 21 years old and playing at High A ball. Keith Law ranked Palacios at 24th best and MLB.com listed him as their 27th best prospect, and well behind other more highly touted shortstops in the system - namely, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon and Wander Javier.
 
So how is it that the Twins achieved this kind of trade? What does that say about Odorizzi?
 
The answer is probably much more complicated, Perhaps the Rays were, indeed, very smitten with Palacios. His tools do grade out to stick at shortstop, albeit his upside looks to be more of a utility man than a regular. It seems unlikely the Twins were bidding against themselves, to be able to get a straight 1 for 1 on Odorizzi, and he has been rumored to several other teams this offseason including the Angels, Nationals, Yankees and Orioles. How is it that among several teams vying for a competent major league pitcher, the Rays weren't able to add more than a single mid-level prospect in return?
 
Lets not forget, either, the Rays top prospect in their system - Willy Adames - is a shortstop and a potential star at the MLB level. Palacios figures to be, at minimum, blocked at the MLB level for several years by Adames who has already progressed to Double-A and was a Southern League All-Star.
 
The Rays not only traded Odorizzi for a single prospect, but the prospect they received is likely system depth? So perhaps the better question is, what does the trade say about the other clubs perceived value of Jake Odorizzi?
 
Who is Jake Odorizzi?
 
Depending on who you ask and under what context, you'll get a different answer to this question. Around Twins social media, I've seen such differing opinions - from "Should he be the Opening Day starter? He may be our best pitcher" to "He's, at best, a number 4 starter". I would contend that he is likely the middle ground between these two, very different statements.
 
As background, Odorizzi was a first round draft pick (2008 32nd Overall, Brewers), reaching Class A in the Brewers system. He was traded in the offseason following the 2009 season to the Kansas City Royals where he, by the 2011 season, was ranked as the Brewers number 1 prospect. While he wasn't the primary piece in the trade that sent him from Kansas City to Tampa Bay (Wil Myers headlined that blockbuster trade, sending James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City in exchange for Myers, Odorizzi, and two others.) he was a key element, ranking as the Royals 4th best prospect in their system at the time.
 
After receiving a cup of coffee in the majors in both 2012 and 2013, accruing only 37 innings pitched through those two seasons, he has 4 full seasons in the majors.
 
By standard metrics he's been a valuable mid-rotation arm - putting up ERA's of 4.13, 3.35 and 3.69 in 2014-'16, with park adjusted xFIP of 3.90, 3.96 and 4.44, respectively. His K/9 average during the first three seasons was a respectable 8.42, while maintaining an average HR/FB rate of 9.9%, or just slightly below the MLB average.
 
 
Wait. What about 2017?
 
Notice that I omitted 2017 from his stat lines? I thought you might. Odorizzi had, by most accounts, an abysmal 2017 season. Limited to 143.1 innings in 2017 after two trips to the Disabled List (hamstring, back injury), he saw regression in multiple areas. His ERA, at 4.14, the worst mark he's had since his rookie season - in conjunction with a horrid 5.43 FIP.
 
His 3.83 BB/9 mark fell well below league average and his HR/FB was an awful (almost impressively awful if I hadn't seen Kyle Gibsons 18%HR/FB mark) of 15% - all while seeing his GB% fall to 30.6%.
 
Unsurprisingly, Odorizzi gave up 30 home runs in 2017 and the long ball indeed was a crux, paired with a 7.52 ERA during the third trip though the order.
 
Fatigue, injury, and you can't even chalk it (all) up to bad luck, with a very low .227 BABIP.
 
 
So, what's the forecast for 2018?
 
Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs has a very compelling article that suggests Odorizzi may be an adjustment away from rectifying some of his issues from last season. His elevated four-seam fastball approach, which reached was tied for the highest 4S fastball height in the major leagues. Sawchik suggest that pairing the increased height with with increased height of his split-change, he may be losing "tunneling", or the vertical separation between the four-seamer and his split-change up, which generally produced his highest whiff rate (22%) in his arsenal of pitches.
 
Twins pitching coach, the newly hired Garvin Alston, has stressed that locating the fastball with his staff is a top priority and it would seem that as Odorizzi's fastball goes, so goes the season for Odorizzi.
 
As Brooks Baseball's player card for Odorizzi reads "(Odorizzi's) four-seam fastball generates an extremely high number of swings and misses compared to other pitchers fourseamers".
 
In a nutshell, if he can effectively locate his fastball and mix in his split-change up with better tunneling, his chances of returning to a pre-2017 Jake Odorizzi are fairly good.
 
 
How Good Is He?
 
Twins Pitching Analyst, Josh Kalk, hired this past December and formerly a Senior Analyst for the Tampa Bay Rays likely has as much information on Odorizzi as anyone, and it would follow that recommendations he may have had on Odorizzi held some weight in regards to the Twins trading for him. That said, what can we expect from him in the upcoming 2018 season?
 
Odorizzi, at 4 full years in the league, has shown the consistency (apart from 2017, which may or may not be an anomaly) of a number 3 or 4 starter, depending on the rotation he's placed in.
 
Baseball Reference has similar pitchers as Danny Salazar and Jeremy Hellickson - and if he pitches like pre-2017 Odorizzi is a fair comparision, though I would argue he would be a perfect bridge between those two pitchers. He won't miss as many bats as Salazar and will miss more bats than Hellickson, when on.
 
Salazar, when healthy (and maybe not pitching in the same rotation as Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco), is likely a number 2/3 (his peripherals are great, with 12.8 K/9 and a FIP of 3.48 - but he walks too many hitters) and Hellickson is likely a number 5 (if you wanted to look at worst case scenario of progression for Odorizzi, I would look at the staggering decline of Hellickson post-2016.)
 
Conclusion
 
So, no. I don't believe Odorizzi is the Twins best pitcher. Jose Berrios will likely hold that mantle this season, barring a trade for an established ace or a surprise signing of Jake Arrieta. Even Santana, if healthy and capable or repeating (or coming close to repeating) his 2017 season would provide superior results.
 
That said, the Odorizzi trade gave the Twins something they need - an arm capable of holding down a middle of the rotation spot, keep them in games and get some K's when needed. He slots nicely in between Berrios, Santana when he returns, with Gibson occupying the 4 spot.
 
Temper your expectations, Twins fans. We didn't sneak one by the Rays and snag a front of the rotation starter, but we did get a young, controllable, arbitration eligible middle of the rotation-type arm - for essentially a High A projected utility infielder. That's pretty impressive.
 
 
 
Twitter: @four_six_three

Since baseball is such a numbers sport I am always curious where our current players are on the list and what might happen during this next season that we can anticipate and root for. When it comes to all time batting averages I once anticipated that Joe Mauer would get onto the big list, but in the top 50 we have Carew at 30 and Kirby Puckett (318) tied for 48 with two others. No Mauer, he has dropped out of the top 100. I know it’s the concussion, but that is still too bad. Miguel Cabrera is t 317 after a disastrous year, can he come back? Altuve at 316 has only had 6 years so too early to anticipate while Joey Votto has 10 years now and is tied with Larry Walker (313) at number 66.
 
In the counting stats there are some fun things to watch. Adrian Beltre is our only 3000 hit player right now but Pujols is only 32 hits away so he should join the list this year. Last year he had 143 hits so if he keeps that pace – May/June will have him in the club. Adrian is at 3048 between Lou Brock and Rod Carew. Last year he had just 106 hits and 2018 depends upon his health. If he only matches last year he will zip past Carew, Henderson, Biggio, Suzuki, Winfield, Rodriquez, and Gwynn and move just ahead of Robin Yount. Nice list. If Pujols just matches last year he will end up between Winfield and Rodriquez.
 
In that very important category – Runs – where Rickey Henderson, Cobb, and Bonds lead the field there is only one players in the top 50 – Pujols who sits right behind Honus Wagner. Last year he only had 53 runs and if he does the same this year he will go from number 23 to number 21 right behind Paul Molitor. Beltre is in the next 50 but even if he were to get 100 he would still not catch George Brett who is number 50 and last year he scored only 47.
 
We do not list doubles leaders in most publications – why not? Pujols is #12 all time (619) and Beltre is #13 (613). Both are just behind Hank Aaron - #11. Last year Beltre had 22 and Pujols had 17 which means Beltre could pass both Pujols and Aaron and move past David Ortiz into number 10 on the list. Cabrera is number 32 with 545. Robinson Cano is the only active player in the next 50 and should move into the top 50 this year. He only needs ten to do so.
 
Jose Reyes is in the top 100 in triples and Curtis Granderson is number 198. This is a shame because I think triples are the most exciting hit in the game of baseball. We have two potentially great triples hitters in Rosario and Buxton, I hope they will go for it!
 
If Pujols matches his 23 home runs from last year he will have 637 which will get him past Griffey and into 6th place. Beltre and Cabrera are tied with 462 and are in 35th with Adam Dunn and Jose Canseco. If Beltre hits 17 like last year he will move past Willie Stargell and Stan Musial for number 30. If Cabrera matches last year he will be in 31st place past those same to all time greats.
 
Pujols is in eighth place in RBIS – 1918 and if he matches last years 101, which he should on his improved team, he would move to 3rd place behind Aaron and Rodriguez and past Bonds. Beltre at 28 would move past Frank Thomas for #21 if he matches last year and Cabrera at #32 could move to #26 by matching last years 60 and he would be between Sheffield and Sosa. Robinson Cano at 143 and Adrian Gonzales at 149 are the only other active players in the top 150.
 
In walks Pujols at 53 and Cabrera at 94 are the only active players in the top 100 while Curtis Granderson (that all time great – just kidding) is 31 and Beltre 38, Cabrera 39 are in the top 40 in Ks. Justin Upton, Chris Davis and Matt Kemp join them in the top 100. What does that say about this generation of hitters?
Jose Reyes at 34 is the only active player (barely) in the top 100 in Stolen Bases. Like the triples, I loved the stolen base – that really put excitement in the game and Henderson, Brock, Maury Wills were just a few of the great baserunners I got to see. Bring it back!
 
In career WAR – Pujols is right behind Joe Morgan who is number 20 with 99.4 – Morgan has 100.3, Beltre is tied with Cap Anson (the worst person to ever play) in 27th with 93.9 and has Roberto Clemente just ahead of him. Cabrera is 73 and tied with Tony Gwynn at 68.8 WAR. Just ahead of him is Tim Raines. Robinson Cano is at 92 and right behind Buddy Bell and Goose Goslin (only great Senator) and the last current player in the top 100 surprised me – Chase Utley at 94 right behind Willie Randolph.
 
No Twins, but plenty for the baseball fan to pay attention to in addition to the current team. Next time I will look at pitchers.

As the 2018 Major League Baseball seasons draws ever more near, the Minnesota Twins are looking to replicate a season that saw its end in the postseason. While they'd prefer to avoid the one-game playoff in the Wild Card game, that would mean overtaking the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. With the division looking like a two horse race, it's worth checking in on the possibility of that outcome.
 
In observing the Indians from afar, comparing them to the Twins may be best done by positional group. If we break down the active roster into groups consisting of starters, relievers, infielders, outfielders, and bench, we should have a relatively clear five-subject analysis to look at. With those parameters set out in front of us, here's how the cream of the AL Central crop stacks up.
 
Starters: Indians
 
Even if the Twins sign Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, the Minnesota rotation will fall behind that of Cleveland. While a Darvish, Jose Berrios, and Ervin Santana top three would rival Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer, it's the back end that has questions. For Paul Molitor, it's safe to assume a new name is going to enter the bunch, that means there will be just two spots left to fill out the rotation. Right now, it appears that those jobs will be owned by Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes out of the gate.
 
Terry Francona has the luxury of going to Danny Salazar as his fourth, and Mike Clevinger as his fifth. Salazar has as much upside as anyone, and his stuff gets big league batters out at an alarming rate (when he keeps it in the zone). Minnesota has the opportunity to raise the water level as 2018 draws on, and if someone like Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell, Fernando Romero, or a host of other arms forces out Gibson or Hughes, it would likely be for the better long term.
 
A year or two ago, the divide between the Twins and Indians on the mound was substantial. Given Kluber's Cy Young status, and the depth of the group overall, they still tout an impressive five. All things considered, Minnesota has closed the gap measurably, and that will continue to be an area of focus for the immediate future.
 
Relievers: Indians
 
Where the Twins were more top-heavy as opposed to having depth in the rotation, the two squads may be the opposite in the pen. Bryan Shaw is gone in Cleveland, and the innings eater won't be there for Francona to call on in 2018. They still boast an incredible one-two punch in Cody Allen and Andrew Miller however, and both could be named among the best in the bullpen across all of baseball. Behind that duo though, there's a relative falloff, and that's where Minnesota's opportunity comes in.
 
The trio of signings Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made in relief this winter can be categorized as nothing short of a grand slam. Fernando Rodney has his warts, but he's still effective in the late-innings, with upper 90's stuff. Zach Duke is a great gamble even further removed from Tommy John surgery, and Addison Reed is among that "best relievers in Baseball" category. Adding that group to holdovers like Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers is a huge plus for Paul Molitor's club.
 
If Minnesota wants to nab this category, and they're very close to doing so, Ryan Pressly and Tyler Duffey need to be at their best. Pressly is an impact arm that can shoulder high leverage when he's right, while Duffey has worked late innings prior to his pro career and has a nice two pitch mix that profiles well in relief.
 
Infielders: Indians
 
This category is absolutely in Cleveland's favor, but the Twins aren't as distant as it may seem. Francisco Lindor is one of the best young players in the game, and whether or not his game ends up being power or average, he's going to hit. Jose Ramirez is the best star that doesn't get enough attention, and Yonder Alonso is coming off a breakout 2017. Losing Carlos Santana will hurt this group, and Jason Kipnis' best days are maybe behind him. As a whole though, this is a strong outfit.
 
It's obvious that Brian Dozier is the cornerstone of Minnesota's infield. Behind Jose Altuve, he is probably the second best player at the position. Jorge Polanco showed his bat will play down the stretch a season ago, and Miguel Sano is going to hit a good amount of longballs for plenty of years to come. If Joe Mauer continues to play elite defense, his value will fail to sag any time soon as well.
 
Behind the dish, I'd prefer Jason Castro and Mitch Garver over Roberto Perez and Yan Gomes, but I could be a bit bullish on what I expect from Garver in 2018.
 
Regardless of the total collection, these two infields are loaded with talent, and the Indians has a bit more sustainability and depth, the Twins aren't too far behind. Both of these groups can hit, and the fielding acumen is pretty close as well. As you can see becoming a trend, the gap is closing.
 
Outfielders: Twins
 
There's little argument to be made against Byron Buxton being the best outfielder in baseball. He's the game's best defender, and plays the premium position of the three spots. His speed and arm are both elite, while he continues to improve on route running. Should his bat again be ready to unleash the fury James Rowson helped to tease us with for the better part of 2017, Minnesota has an MVP candidate on its hands.
 
Both Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler have holes in their game, and despite his strong 2017, it's Rosario I'm more uncertain about. The strong arm is there, and he may profile better in right, but route efficienty has been somewhat of a question. Tightening up around the plate will benefit him, but he's always going to be a free-swinger. Kepler has the look of a Christian Yelich type, and that ceiling remains. If he's able to harness that ability in 2018, Minnesota will be in a great spot.
 
For the Indians, Bradley Zimmer has graduated from prospect status and is now expected to be a regular. Defense is an definite tool of his, but the bat lagged behind in his debut. Michael Brantley is an All Star, but his body is fighting against him, and Lonnie Chisenhall is nothing more than a rotational type at this point in his career. The group has plenty to offer, and doesn't have glaring weaknesses, but there's hardly a shining strength either.
 
Bench: Indians
 
Including the designated hitter into this equation, Cleveland's upper hand is significantly loaded from the top. Edwin Encarnacion is a destroyer of baseballs, and should be expected to continue with those contributions in the season ahead. Behind him however, there's a significant (and expected) drop off. Tyler Naquin is a nice rotational outfielder, and Giovanny Urshela seems to get plenty of use over the course of a season.
 
Unlike the Indians, Minnesota doesn't have a true DH (at least until it becomes Miguel Sano's assumed role). Robbie Grossman has been an invaluable add, and is an OBP machine, but he's slumped at times and is limited defensively. Eduardo Escobar is a very good utility man, and Ehire Adrianza gives the Twins a nice glove first player.
 
Looking at reserves, you're picking at straws to a certain extent. If you have a one-dimensional player though, allowing that to be a guy that trots the bases with a parrot on his arm is hardly a bad position to be in. If everything else gets taken care of for Minnesota this offseason, a bat addition would be nice, but it's not coming in the form of an impact player.
 
Overall, it's apparent the Twins are still playing second fiddle to the Cleveland Indians. What's also apparent is that the gap between the two clubs is no longer wide. With pitching being one of the greatest differences, Minnesota has drawn closer in relief. Over the course of a season series, or even the full 162 game slate, I'd be far from shocked to see these two clubs flip flop.
 
In the Twins last two competitive seasons (2015 & 2017), they went 12-7 and 7-12 against Falvey's former organization respectively. The divide probably isn't worthy of being nearly a 2:1 or 1:2 scenario, but that's the volatility that any one season brings. Right now, Cleveland is still the AL Central favorites, but Minnesota is making a run to change that, and the competition in the American League could push them to realizing a division crown as their best path to the postseason.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

In the past baseball was a path out of the ghettos for Irish, Italians, Jewish, Germans...Today immigrants still need to learn baseball. In an era when we are wasting money on walls and deportations, one of the best ways to get into our nation is to be able to hit a baseball over the wall. In 2013 Fox News ran this story http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2013/04/03/over-28-percent-players-were-foreign-born-in-mlb-opening-day.html that 28% of the players in MLB were immigrants. The Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Canada, Cuba, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Japan, Columbia and Panama were the suppliers of those players – in that order.
Forbes tells us about 2016 – “During the 2016 season, Americans have watched a real World Series, with players born in at least 13 different countries. According to data made public by major league baseball, the leading country of origin for players on 2016 Opening Day rosters (and disabled lists) was the Dominican Republic (82 players), followed by Venezuela (63) Cuba (28), Mexico (12), Japan (8), South Korea (8), Canada (6), Panama (4), Colombia (3), Curacao (3), Brazil (2) and Taiwan (2). (Note: Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens by birth.)
Today, approximately 26% of major league baseball players are foreign-born, a more than five-fold increase from the 1940s.” In that year the most popular immigrants were Jose Altuve (Venezuela) and David Ortiz (Dominican Republic).
 
The year that Blyleven went in to the HOF he was joined by Robbie Alomar Alomar was from Puerto Rico – Blyleven, as we know, was born in the Netherlands. In the HOF, Clemente, Marichal, Aparicio, Jenkins, Cepeda, Perez, and our Rod Carew were all foreign born. http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/throwback/201102/foreign-born-players-baseballs-hall-fame
 
I love this list – the first foreign born player from each country – not the only one and not necessarily the best one. and Bleacher report tries to name the 50 best foreign born - http://www.bleacherreport.com/articles/1006505-50-greatest-foreign-born-players-in-baseball-history
 
 
But this is not new. I remember stories from my Grandfather’s and father’s generations when immigrants were told that if they wanted to fit in they needed to learn baseball. Baseball was the American Sport and if you knew baseball you would fit in. The following article captures the Italian efforts in the early 1900’s to learn baseball – some like the DiMaggio’s learned quite well - “Lawrence Baldassaro explores the role Italian-Americans have played in America’s pastime. He offers a straightforward “chronological history of the evolution of Italian Americans in professional baseball” from Ed Abbaticchio, who made his debut in 1897, to such recent players as Mike Piazza and Craig Biggio.”
 
From the start the Minnesota Twins had an international connection. In the 1960’s before the recent surge in Foreign born players, the Twins had a Cuban connection that brought us Camilo Pascual, Tony Oliva, Zoilo Versalles, Sandy Valdespino, and Luis Tiant. And from Venezuela – Cesar Tovar who took us to the 1965 World Series. In their first years, when I was an usher, I always tried to get near the first base bag as the game moved on and the seats were full so I could watch my favorite player – Vic Power from Puerto Rico. I loved Pedro Ramos who complimented Pascual on the mound and does anyone remember Elmer Valo from Slovakia? Or Reno Bertoia from Italy who lived in Canada and is in the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame? There were 9 foreign born players on our first Minnesota Twins team.
 
So what about the current team?
1. Ehire Adrianza – Venezuela
2. Miguel Sano – Dominican Republic
3. Jose Berrios – Puerto Rico
4. Adalberto Mejia – Dominican Republic
5. Fernando Rodney – Dominican Republic
6. Ervin Santana – Dominican Republic
7. Michael Pineda – Dominican Republic
8. Gabriel Moya – Venezuela
9. Lewis Thorpe – Australia
10. Eduardo Escobar – Venezuela
11. Jorge Polanco – Dominican Republic
12. Max Kepler – Germany
13. Eddie Rosario – Puerto Rico
14. Kennys Vargas – Puerto Rico
 
 
Maybe this is what make’s baseball the real American Game. It goes back to our roots and our roots spread around the world. Earlier I wrote a blog about American Indians that starred in baseball, beyond them everyone is an immigrant and our game is better because they are here.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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With the recent slew of raw data we have about hitters, based on Statcast, new metrics based on that raw data have been developed to predict hitter performance, based on objective measurements, such as bat exit speed and launch angle. One of these metrics is the expected weighted on base average, or xwOBA. It is meant to compare directly to wOBA, in a manner similar to that of xFIP to FIP comparison's for pitchers. And in the same manner if xFIP-FIP is a positive number for a player, as a baseline, you expect a player to improve next season, and the opposite if it is a negative numbers. Of course, this is one factor, and additional factors, like training, mechanics change, adding muscle etc, will affect future performance; however, unlike xwOBA-xOBA, they are hard to measure.
 
wOBA tries to measure a player's total offensive performance based on a series of weighted operations on offensive events on a players. The link will give you some basic information on the metric. xwOBA is a similar formula based on Statcast exit speed and launch angle. The link explains in detail the metric.
 
Here are the xwOBA for the 2017 Twins' batters in two groups:
 
The ones expected to improve in 2018:
 
 

 
The ones expected to decline in 2018:
 

 
As indicated only Joe Mauer, and in a lesser degree, Jason Castro are projected to improve, as far as the 2018 startling 9 of the Twins go. Pretty much everyone else is projected to decline.
 
If one looks at several projections about what the 2018 will do, which are based on xwOBA, expect them to show an overall decline in wins.
 
There is a silver lining: Other than Brian Dozier (and free agent Chris Gimenez,) most of the Twins' hitters expected to decline based on this formula are young, and the other factors like development, changes in mechanics, could easily trump these projections. If the 2017 Twins' hitters were an older bunch, things would have been different.

This offseason has been nothing short of unprecedented. It started with the 23-year-old sensation Shohei Ohtani deciding to leave Japan for the MLB, two years before he was eligible to sign without the International Free Agency restrictions. Then it was followed up with two months of absolute standstill for many of the top free agents. So, how could this season’s free agent market potentially cause Yu Darvish to sign for a lot less money than the six years and $160MM that MLB Trade Rumors had originally predicted? Let’s take a look.
 
In years past, the available marquee free agents were almost exclusively signed by the richest teams in baseball. In fact, 9 of the 20 richest contracts in MLB history were signed by either the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox. However, as MLB front offices are starting to get smarter, they are starting to learn that these big time free agent contracts are almost never worth it in the long run. As a result, teams are starting to shift their focus towards lower tier free agents that they can sign to short term, and more reasonably priced contracts, like relievers.
 
Another factor that will cause Darvish’s value to drop is the luxury-tax system. While MLB does not have salary cap like many other U.S. sports leagues do, they do have a luxury-tax that disincentivizes teams from spending frivolous amounts of money on free agents. As teams go further and further above the luxury-tax threshold, and as the number of years they spend above the threshold increases, so to does the amount that the teams are taxed. This is causing many of the top spending teams, who have spent the last few years above the luxury-tax threshold, to want to cut back on spending and get below it in 2018. As a result, these teams are choosing to take a pass on players like Darvish.
 
Major League Baseball has seen a stretch of extreme parity over the past half-decade, with 26 of the 30 teams having made a playoff appearance since 2011, along with traditional bottom dwellers, like the Royals, becoming World Series contenders. However, over the past year or two, the MLB has seen a real shift from a league filled with parity, to apparent “super teams” atop each division. The reasons for this are many, and I won’t go into details why in this post. So how does all of this impact Yu Darvish? Well, I have already touched on why many of the teams at the top aren’t looking to add Darvish, but now with this power separation, many teams are opting to go with a rebuilding strategy as opposed to signing free agents. This takes even more teams out of the running, that might have otherwise made a run at competing in 2018, and thus looking to sign Darvish.
 
So, who does this all leave that would be interested in signing Darvish? Well, it was reported that Yu Darvish has narrowed his list of teams down to six. These teams are the Rangers, Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and of course the Twins.
 
Let’s look at the five other teams remaining that are competing with the Twins for Yu Darvish’s services. Saturday night, the Astros made a trade to acquire Pirates starter Gerrit Cole. With this move, it all but fills out the Astros’ rotation with Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Lance McCullers Jr. as their 1-4, followed by quality starters in Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh competing for the 5th spot. This all but takes them out of the running for Yu Darvish.
 
Additionally, the Dodgers and Yankees are teams that are looking to stay below the $197MM luxury-tax threshold in 2018. As it stands, their projected 2018 salaries are $191MM and $172MM respectively. This means that signing Darvish will put the Dodgers well beyond the luxury-tax, and limits the Yankees to less than $25MM in average annual value (AAV) on Darvish’s contract in order to stay below. Doing so would leave the Yankees with no margin to play with if they need to sign or trade for another player throughout the season, which means they are probably out unless his value drops down below $20MM in AAV. The Rangers are also a team that have said that they are looking to cut payroll in 2018. While their motives to do so might not be luxury-tax related, their desire to do so makes it hard to see Darvish making a reunion with the team that originally signed him out of Japan in 2012.
 
This just leaves the Chicago Cubs, who are looking to replace 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta. The Cubs have also expressed an interest in staying below the luxury-tax, but given their roughly $30MM in space to work with, and the fact that they were below the luxury-tax in 2017, their incentives to stay below aren’t as great as the Dodgers and Yankees are. This most likely makes the Cubs the greatest competition that the Twins have for Darvish. While the Cubs could easily get into a bidding war with the Twins, and push his salary closer to the $30MM AAV range, I don’t see them doing so for a couple of reasons. The first is this would leave them with little to no room to work with in 2018 for any other additions if they wish to stay below the luxury-tax. The second, is they have shown interest in a potential reunion with Arrieta. If the price for Darvish gets too high, they could easily put their focus on bringing back Arrieta.
 
With all of that being said, this is great news for the Twins. Not only does it increase their chances of actually signing Yu Darvish, but they might be able to do so without having to break the bank. There is also a slight chance that they might be able to land Darvish on a five-year deal as opposed to a six or seven-year deal. This would be great for the Twins, as he would come off of the Twins books after his age 35 season. In the end, I see Darvish signing either a five or six-year deal, in the $115MM-$135MM range, a far cry from the six years and $160MM that was originally projected.

https://www.si.com/more-sports/2011/07/01/kaplan-spahnmarichalToday I was motivated by reading an article on ESPN by Bradford Doolittle - hitting the reset on pitcher wins http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21439977/hitting-reset-button-starting-pitcher-wins-baseball
 
As a baseball fan who started out rooting for Warren Spahn, Lew Burdette, Hank Aaron, and Eddie Mathews of the Milwaukee Braves and then moving over to the new Twins as an usher for their first season my views are tainted by history and, while I like many new stats, I am bothered by the tendency to throw out the old stats with the recycling.
 
Over and over I hear that wins don't count, then we drool over our greater win totals. True it is a team game and the wins by an individual pitcher have to be looked at under a new lens since the idea of a complete game where the pitcher really does control the outcome has changed and now we have shifted to the bullpen as masters of the mound, but the true aces rise above this.
 
Sale and Kluber, Kershaw and Scherzer are not just great starters, they actually win games, even though they do not pitch very many complete games. To understand my love of the complete game and the true aces you should read about the Spahn/Marichal game in 1963 - https://www.si.com/more-sports/2011/07/01/kaplan-spahnmarichal
How nostalgic this game is for me.
 
Now admittedly in this era it is a thrill to see two starters go 7 innings against each other, but that does not diminish the win and loss records. It is true that the scorer never invokes his right to award the win to the most deserving so a relief pitcher can come in throw one ball and then get the win, but that is not all that common. The starter gets his record because he pitches long enough, often enough to get to the position to win.
​And I understand fielding and hitting are essential I remember when Ryan won the ERA title in 1987 came with an 8 - 16 record, hardly a great pct. Yet he overcame the poor teams he pitched for to surpass 300 wins just as Blyleven won 287 games pitching with some mediocre teams. I give him credit for this win total in addition to the new stats that pushed him in the Hall of Fame.
 
I do not want to negate the new approach. In fact the bullpen era will create some interesting statistical aberrations that challenge our ability to compare pitchers from one era to another, but take nothing away from those winners of yesteryear.
 
It is common place to always state today's athletes are the best ever. Kershaw is being anointed by ESPN weekly and he deserves his recognition, but necessarily his ranking. Give the same diet, training and opportunities, the greats of the past would be the greats of today and the greats of today put in another era would still rise to stardom.
 
So how do we judge players? Old stats, new stats, the eye test? Maybe all of them. If real baseball was just a statistical exercise we could dispense with the field and just play strato-matic, but the human element is what gives it greatness and is the reason we still talk about players like Cy Young and Honus Wagner even though they are simply grainy photographs and statistical lines in our life times.

Now in it's third installment, the week of Thanksgiving prompts the revealing of the Minnesota Twins Diamond Treasure. Crafted after being moved by the 2015 Turkey of the Year piece penned by Patrick Reusse of the Star Tribune, this article has been carried on at Off The Baggy. The Diamond Treasure is designed to be able to highlight a player or area of the organization showing excitement for the future, while having roots established in the past.
 
Now in the third year, the inaugural winner was Miguel Sano. Last season, the new front office tandem of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine too home the Diamond Treasure. For 2017, I think the designation was all to glaring to overlook. Minnesota centerfielder Byron Buxton is your diamond treasure.
 
The soon-to-be 24 year-old is coming off his best season as a big leaguer, and we've only begun to scratch the surface. Debuting with the Twins at 21 years-old, things are just now beginning to bear fruit. Picking up enough votes to finish 18th in MVP balloting and tally his first (of many) Gold Gloves, Buxton show plenty of promise to get excited about his future.
 
As things stand currently, the former first round draft pick may be the best defensive outfielder in all of baseball. He essentially redefined the Statcast-era of defensive metrics this season, owning the top spot in Outs Above Average and Catch Probability. His sprint speed numbers dubbed him as the fastest man in the game, and his Gold Glove was actually a proper reflection of his defensive acumen in terms of sabermetrics. What's most impressive though, is that he's just scratching the surface as a player.
 
In garnering the MVP votes, Buxton was able to do so despite hitting below the Mendoza Line as late as July 3. His defense didn't slump, and the speed never will, but that early season struggle at the plate hung over his head for most of the season. Broken down however, James Rowson was able to reconstruct the centerfielder's swing at the highest level. After finding a better footing, Buxton slashed .285/.339/.492 from June 11 onwards (85 G). Over the course of a full season, that level of production no doubt vaults Buxton into a top five MVP conversation.
 
Thus far through his big league career, Byron Buxton has experienced a roller coaster of emotions. With so much promise and hype, the former top draft pick was never going to escape the immense expectations set out for him. The reality however, is that he remains a kid by big league standards, and is just now coming into his more adult frame. With 278 games at the highest level under his belt already, Buxton far surpasses what Kirby Puckett (0 games) and Torii Hunter (142 games) had for MLB experience prior to their 24th birthdays. That should only enhance the belief in what's yet to come.
 
Sometimes players race out to an immediate showing of exceptional ability, and whether it fades or sticks, remains a mystery. For Buxton, it appears a level of growth was a slower process, but he's been made all the better for it. There's a good amount of time yet before he'll be considered in his prime, and the amount of high level production to be expected should be sustained for well over a decade. Developed from within, and bearing fruits internally, the Twins find themselves in as great of a spot as Buxton himself.
 
We haven't even begun to see the best of the Twins star centerfielder, but at this time of thanks, I think it's fair to be thankful that the hometown team has a legitimate superstar on their hands. 2018 should be a ton of fun for the organization, and it could be the one where Byron becomes the poster boy.
 
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What a year!
2016 2017 changeActual Wins 59 85 +26
Improving by 26 games is quite a feat. So how did the 2017 Twins get there?
2016 2017 changeActual Wins 59 85 +26Pythag Wins 66 83 +17Luck -7 +2 +9
Okay, so the actual improvement was more like 17 games. The "Luck" here is shorthand for the difference between their wins and the wins we should have expected given their run totals--in other words, the advantage the Twins had over a team that scores runs in the average distribution. It is a measure of the luck involved in when the runs scored, not in whether the runs scored.
 
Wait, so one-third of the 2017 Twins performance improvement was due to luck? Should we despair that the success is illusory and thus expect the Twins to sink back to mediocrity? Not quite. The 2016 Twins were quite unlucky, so it isn't bad that they changed that. You can't count on the number being much higher than +2 in 2018, but neither should we assume it will certainly be lower. Typical division winners outperform their Pythagorean record, and so the Twins should hope to do so in 2018. That this "luck" number is merely +2 should calm the Twins fans' insecurities; the Royals has a luck number of +8 in falling short of .500, and so Royals fans should acquiesce to their unavoidable rebuild period.
 
So enough about "luck". Where did the Twins' actual improvement in run-scoring and run-preventing achievements come from?
2016 2017 changeLuck -7 +2 +9Hitters WAR 17.0 28.7 +11.7Pitchers WAR 1.8 7.0 +5.2
So three-fourths of the Twins' actual improvement was in their hitters. Let's take a closer look at it. Note that I am evaluating their hitters with hitting, baserunning, and fielding put together.
WAR 2016 2017 changeHitters 16.0 24.9 +8.9 CF Buxton 1.9 5.1 +3.2C Suzuki=>Castro 0.4 2.5 +2.13B Sano 0.8 2.5 +1.7SS Polanco 0.6 2.1 +1.51B Mauer 2.3 3.4 +1.1LF Rosario 1.1 1.7 +0.6DH Grossman 0.3 0.8 +0.5RF Kepler 2.1 2.4 +0.32B Dozier 6.5 4.4 -2.1CI Escobar -0.6 1.3 +1.94O Santana=>Granite -1.3 0.3 +1.6BC Centeno=>Gimenez 0.8 0.7 -0.1CI Plouffe=>Vargas 0.4 0.3 -0.1MI Nunez=>Adrianza 1.5 0.9 -0.6
A nine-win improvement from your starting lineup is excellent, and the bench even improved a bit. Do you think that the Twins did nothing last offseason? Looking at the above, I see ten moves the Twins made (or avoided making) that altogether led to this twelve-win improvement.
 
Moves that worked
 
Staying committed to Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario: The Twins stuck with Byron Buxton through a rough May and June. It would have been defensible to have demoted him to work on his hitting in AAA. The Terry Ryan regime might have done just that, but Derek Falvey and Thad Levine stuck with him, most notably because his fielding was not just above average but the best in the league. In the end, Buxton refined his swing and started hitting like his promise always showed.
 
In the same vein, the Twins stayed consistent with Jorge Polanco, who spent the entire year as the starting shortstop. While he didn't have defensive talent to help him along, the confidence in his ability paid off as his hitting skyrocketed in the second half. There was pressure to demote Polanco, but faith in him was paid off well.
 
Similarly, Rosario found a better stroke and contributed more than most thought reasonable to hope for.
 
Replacing Kurt Suzuki with Jason Castro: Passing on extending Suzuki, the Twins figured they could do better, and did so with Jason Castro. Castro is under contract through 2019, so the move will continue to pay off.
 
Keeping Sano at third base instead of DH: There was fear that Sano in the field at third base could be a liability, but he has done quite well there. The Twins definitely expect more production from Sano's bat, but keeping him at third base should be at least the short-term plan, assuming his current shin injury is not an impediment for doing so in 2018.
 
Not trading Dozier: While his production declined a bit from a stellar 2016, Dozier was still the third-best of all the Twins. The leading rumor last year was that the Dodgers would have traded Jose De Leon, but the Twins wanted more. That judgment paid off, as we can only assume that the Twins would not have found most of Dozier's 4.4 WAR anywhere else.
 
Not giving up on Mauer against LHP: Like most Twins fans, I was disappointed in Mauer's overall hitting in the years following the concussion, and I was clamoring for them to platoon him. Instead, he hit a respectable .750 OPS against lefties, and more, there was no obvious choice to pair with as a platoon. The Twins should continue to decrease Mauer's appearances against lefties, but the urgency to make this platoon a priority is eased.
 
Keeping Eduardo Escobar despite a poor 2016. Escobar as a bench player contributed as the Twins hoped and not as they feared. While he might not play much again at shortstop, his bat is enough to warrant keeping on as a corner infielder.
 
Moves that bombed
 
Sticking with Grossman at DH: The Twins thought Grossman could hit, so they gave him lots more chances at DH. Well, we should now realize that he can hit...sort of. The Twins could have added a win or two with a better DH.
 
Giving chances to Vargas: I think we now know that Vargas is not a major league DH. Could Falvey and Levine have come to this conclusion a bit sooner?
 
Not bolstering the bench: While improvements here would have been marginal, the right set of moves may have added a win or two.
 
On to the pitchers.
2016 2017 change5 Starters 1.5 7.4 +5.9Berrios -1.7 1.7 +3.4Duffey=>Colon -1.6 0.1 +1.7Santana 3.8 4.6 +0.8Nolasco=>Mejia 0.4 0.8 +0.4Gibson 0.6 0.2 -0.4
Pitching was disappointing, but there is a bit of hope in that they indeed improved, and two young pitchers clearly took steps forward.
 
Moves that worked
 
Not trading Santana: My choice for team MVP, J. Ervin Santana was the only comfortable part of this rotation. The Twins could have traded him, as he isn't a legitimate top-tier ace, but they would have been lost without him.
 
Committing to Berrios: This was an easier decision given his solid start to the season, but they could have sent him to Rochester to start the year--and perhaps Terry Ryan would have done so. Instead, he now looks like a real pitcher who is ready to show the rest of the league his mettle.
 
Giving lots of chances to Mejia: While Mejia's WAR is disappointing from a competition perspective, it is in line with a player in his stage of development. Without starting Mejia early and often the Twins might have hurt themselves, but more importantly, Mejia's development in the majors should give him more confidence and experience to improve in 2018.
 
Signing Bartolo Colon: While his last month showed us that the Twins shouldn't press their luck, Colon gave the Twins just a dash of added success, however meek, that wasn't available anywhere else. Dillon Gee was just not going to get it done.
 
Raising the standard past Duffey: When you are used to seeing poor pitching, Tyler Duffey might have looked promising, but he really isn't. There's a chance he can improve going forward, but it isn't a big one.
 
Moves that bombed
Signing Nolasco and extending Hughes: Yes, this was an old decision, but the Twins paid too much for Phil Hughes (in dollars+years) and Ricky Nolasco (in losing Alex Meyer). If they could have found a better free agent pitcher in 2014-2016 to help them this year, it would have been a bump up in the win column.
 
Not having an ace: Easier said than done, but imagine how better off the Twins would be with an additional pitcher to start above Santana. All the other playoff teams had at least one top-tier starter, but the Twins are now stuck without one. I can't say that there was a move available to address this, but it remains an albatross the Twins will carry for the foreseeable future.
 
And the bullpen:
2016 2017 changeRelievers 2.2 2.9 +0.8Tonkin=>Busenitz -0.4 0.7 +1.1Milone=>Breslow -0.7 -0.1 +0.6Rogers 0.6 1.1 +0.5Kintzler 1.0 1.1 +0.1May=>Belisle -0.1 0.0 +0.1Dean=>Duffey -0.4 -0.4 0.0Boshers 0.0 -0.1 -0.1Abad=>Hildenberger 1.0 0.8 -0.2Pressly 1.0 -0.2 -0.8
The Twins couldn't even get three wins-above-replacement from their top 9 relievers--which is particularly problematic when you remember that a replacement-level team would win only 45 or so games.
 
Moves that worked
 
Calling up Hildenberger and Busenitz: These two relievers outperformed all but two of the Twins' bullpen members, and did so in limited playing time. Hopefully this teaches the Twins a lesson--but it may be more apt to say that Falvey and Levine are teaching the Twins this lesson already: trust your young players if you believe they are good. 0.5 WAR replacement players are just that: replacable and often replaced. Why replace them with other scrap-heap signings and waiver claims when you could replace them with young, ready-enough talent?
 
Moves that bombed
 
Sticking with Pressly, Boshers, Breslow, and Duffey: These pitchers should have very little shot at a competitive team's bullpen. They just don't seem good enough, and the latter three are in danger of being designated for assignment--if not this offseason, at some point in the future when the Twins find relievers who are worthy. Particularly disappointing is Tyler Duffey, whose transition to the bullpen has been frustrating for himself and Twins coaches alike.
 
Not finding other bullpen help: The Twins could have spent some millions improving their bullpen with options better than Belisle. The biggest flaws in the bullpen this year were injuries to Wimmers, Perkins, May, Chargois, O'Rourke, and Jay, though of course this is not reflective of a move that worked or failed; it's just too bad the Twins didn't have any other better options to turn to.
 
Signing Matt Belisle: Feel free to object to this one, as I agree Belisle was one of the Twins' only good options in the bullpen--but they could have and should have done better.
 
Becoming a real competitor
 
Reflecting on all of this, here are some moves that you might want to put into your off-season blueprint. The Twins need to get to 92 wins to have a good chance to beat the Indians and win the division in 2018, and it may take more than that. It is a lot easier to get there from 83 pythagorean wins than in any of the five seasons previous, so now's the time to go for it.
 
Expect more from Buxton and Sano: The Twins two most promising players underperformed as hitters in 2018: Buxton for the first half, and Sano with injuries and a minor slump. These two are on a excellent trajectory and still have a ton of promise. Neither of them should be a disappointment to anyone, and I am hoping for 10-12 WAR from them in 2018.
 
Keep Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana: These are the kind of players the Twins should want to acquire, not trade away. Should the Twins keep them till free agency, they can make them each a qualifying offer and thereafter win an additional draft pick, which is a better outcome than trading them for B-level prospects. They are both solid players, and I hope for them to repeat their 9 WAR together in 2018.
 
Sign or trade for a designated hitter: I do not like the idea of moving Sano to DH and relying on Escobar or converting Polanco or a prospect shortstop to a poor-hitting third baseman. It would be far easier to find some other upgrade at DH than it would to commit to prospects at shortstop/third base for the next few years. As long as Sano is near-average in the field at third base, let him stay there. Besides, Polanco projects as a better second baseman than third baseman, which the Twins will need after Dozier leaves in free agency for 2019. Keeping Sano at third keeps Escobar as a bench bat and infield fill-in and descreases the need to play players like Adrianza or Goodrum. A capable DH should be able to increase output by 1.5 WAR next year over Grossman.
 
Sign an elite reliever: It is going to be easier to sign a reliever here than a starter, and the Twins have to get better at pitching anywhere. Signing Wade Davis, for example, would improve the bullpen tremendously and let the Twins use Hildenberger, Rogers, Buesnitz, and players coming back from injury in roles they can bulid success in. Wade Davis has achieved 3 WAR several times in his career, and we could hope for the same impact, especially if used wisely.
 
Attempt to trade for an ace starter if it is posslble: This is a tough sell, so I won't belabor it. Hope for it, but it is unlikely. The Twins can't sell the farm for this, so it probably won't happen, but it is the biggest area the Twins could improve. They should at least try. As for signings, I'd make a semi-serious offer for Darvish or even Arrieta, but it likely won't have enough years or dollars to get either.
 
Plan on trusting young starters over any free agents: While some may think the Twins should sign a free-agent pitcher, the risk of another Nolasco contract is large. Even if the Twins find a pitcher better than Nolasco and on par or even a bit better than Kyle Gibson, it would not appreciably improve the team, as the Twins already have six starters at this level: Mejia, Stephen Gonsalves, Aaron Slegers, Fernando Romero, Felix Jorge, and of course, Gibson. You can hope for 1.0-1.5 WAR out of any of these players; why go hunting for expensive free agents for it? Perhaps one of them will break through and deliver 3 WAR. So altogether, I'm hoping for an increase of 4 WAR out of the three, four, and five starting pitchers even with no trades or free agent signings.
 
Plan on trusting young relievers over inexpensive free agents: The Matt Belisle signing is not one the Twins should repeat. While they should consider signing pitchers who are a step up from Belisle, signing a pitcher at Belisle's level (or even extending Belisle himself) is too weak an ambition to improve the team. The Twins have already shown confidence in Hildenberger and Busenitz, which should continue. The previously mentioned Perkins, May, Chargois, O'Rourke, and Jay are all options to help the Twins bullpen in 2018, as well as Jake Reed and John Curtiss after them. The Twins' farm system might be considered strong in relief pitching and 2018 is the year to start gaining from it. From the two through six relievers, the Twins can get 5 WAR better from just small improvements from each spot. One or two relievers will get worse and one or two may break through, but the 2017 baseline is so low that it will look like a new bullpen altogether in the aggregate.
 
Consider signing or trading for a bench bat, preferably outfield: Assuming that Rosario or Zack Granite can play center field in a pinch, it might make sense to find an corner outfielder with some pop against left-handers. Even without a full-time platoon, such a player would be valuable off the bench. The Twins were hoping they could ask this out of Grossman, but it seems that they don't trust him to play defense regularly. Furthermore, neither Rosario and Kepler should be taken for granted; if either get injured or go into an extended slump, someone will need to step in. Chris B. Young or Rajai Davis look to be the best free agent options that somewhat fit. Perhaps the trade market might have a younger or better right-handed hitter. An increase of 1 WAR is reachable here.
 
So all of these realistic, affordable decisions could result in an increase of 17 WAR, to bring the projected win total from 83 pythagorean wins (that is, wins with 0 luck) to 100, and it can be achieved with a modest payroll increase, few or no trades, and keeping the above average farm system going. Now I am not claiming that any of these projected performances are certain or even very likely. Even if the Twins make all these moves, players will get injured, slump, or just trail off into yearlong struggles. However, if the Twins execute an offseason plan to shoot for 100 wins, there's a chance they get 92 or 95, or even 102.
 
The time for the Twins to have low expectations is over. The Twins should be aiming for 100 wins, and they can do it with a little gumption and strategy.

10 seasons into his Major League Baseball career, Joe Mauer was a number one overall pick playing for the hometown team, and owned the title of being the best catcher in the sport. Across that span, he had played in 1,178 games slashing .323/.405/.468. With awards piling up, it seemed certain a career was destined to be capped off with a Hall of Fame ceremony, the a traumatic brain injury occurred. Things have been different since, but in 2017, the Twins long tenured star is forcing us to reconsider.
 
There's next to no argument that can be made against Mauer's first ten years in the big leagues being among the best we've ever seen from a catcher. He piled up three batting titles, and MVP award, three Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers, and six All Star Game appearances. Despite playing arguably the most demanding position on the diamond, he was among the best players on either team on a nightly basis.
 
Since 2013, Mauer's post playing accolades have become murky. Dealing with the lingering effects of a career-altering injury, he's been a shell of his former self. Forced into a positional switch playing first base, he profiles oddly for the position as he's never been the traditional power hitter. From 2014 onwards, his slash line has dipped to a more human .275/.360/.388. There have been no awards handed out, and he has put forth just one season above 1.6 fWAR (the current one, in 2017).
 
Now, looking at his career arc as a whole, Mauer presents an interesting case for Hall of Fame enshrinement. First and foremost, the largest caveat remains that his playing career is not over, and may be far from reaching that point. With another year left on his current deal in Minnesota, and good reason to continue playing (at least briefly) beyond that, we're not in a place for definitive conclusions. That being said, 2017 has presented us an opportunity to take another look at what could become a compelling case.
 
Knowing what the numbers are, Mauer likely is never going to hit the "automatics." While he'll surpass 2,000 hits, he won't reach 3,000. He's not going to hit 500 homers, and and he may not even reach 1,000 RBI. His case for a plaque really never hinged on those targets anyways though, so let's take a look at what matters.
 
Assuming he never wins another, Mauer's three batting titles put him in rare air. he's only the third catcher in history to win a batting title, the first since 1942, and the only ever for the America League. With three batting titles to his credit, only 14 players in the history of the sport have repeated as winners more often than the Twins star. Somewhat of a throw in for his batting title years (and one extra), he also has four Silver Slugger awards.
 
Looking at his MVP award, Mauer also profiles rather favorably. Getting the nod in 2009, he became the first catcher to accept the honor since Ivan Rodriguez in 1999. Only 17 catchers have ever taken home the hardware, and only five have done so since 1970. Most backstops are brought in for their defensive acumen, or the ability to hit for power. Mauer combined both in 2009, and as a catcher, was a threat both with the bat and the glove.
 
That takes us to arguably the most compelling award, the Gold Glove. Mauer tallied three of them behind the plate. Only 11 catchers in the awards history have won more Gold Gloves than Mauer. Three is an impressive total on its own, but it's what Mauer is positioned to do in 2017 that takes thing up a notch. Joining Placido Polanco and Darin Erstad, the Twins (now) first basemen, would be just the third player in history to win a Gold Glove at two different positions. He would also be the first player in history to win Gold Gloves at catcher, and any other position.
 
Statistically speaking, Mauer is going to have a hard case to make. Since 2013 and going forward, his career is far from what it was. However, he'll likely still end his time in the majors with a solid .300+ average, and his fWAR will still do some good. Currently he has composed a career mark checking in above Hall of Famers such as Ralph Kiner, Kirby Puckett, Phil Rizzuto, Roy Campanella, and Lou Brock. What needs to be his calling card however, is what could have been, and the hardware that is.
 
There's no telling whether or not Mauer can put up another Gold Glove caliber season at first base. He's still young enough, and has looked incredible in the role this year. Whether or not that happens depends on usage and how he ages. Right now though, assuming the award is properly distributed in 2017, the Minnesota natives case for The Hall just got a lot more interesting.
 
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It's July, so there's nothing that will be asked more often over the next couple of weeks than whether or not competing teams should buy or sell. Maybe surprisingly to some, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in the thick of that discussion. What's important to take note of, is that the Twins time is now.
 
There's no way to get around 2016 being a complete disaster for the hometown nine. Minnesota lost 103 games en route to a franchise worst season. That club however, was coming off of an 83 win season in 2015, and highlighted the volatility of youth. In 2017, we're seeing that notion continue. As the club turns over to being one punctuated by the likes of Miguel Sano, Jose Berrios, and Byron Buxton, growing pains are to be expected. Whether or not the expectations were a winning team in 2017, the reality was that this club had pieces to begin to make waves.
 
As things stand while nearing the trade deadline, Minnesota has seen most of its top talent rise to the big league level. Miguel Sano is here, Jose Berrios has emerged, and Byron Buxton is playing every day. With other names like Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco on the big league club, the farm system has slogged as its best fruits have been picked. That's not to say there isn't talent still in the minors, but rather, the top tier names are bolstering the 25 man already.
 
For much of the past seven seasons, the talk has been that the Twins haven't spent money, operating cheaply since opening Target Field. While that may be true, it's also a sensible plan of action. Save for 2010, there wasn't a season in which a big splash or two was going to turn a 90 loss squad into one that makes the playoffs. The organization could've splurged to raise the water level, but the end result would still remain. That is, until now.
 
As Jerry Crasnick recently described the Atlanta Braves on Twitter, the Twins should be both short-term sellers and long-term buyers at this point. If there's value to be had in return for Ervin Santana or Brian Dozier, listen. If you can grab a piece like Sonny Gray or Marcus Stroman, explore it. While waiting on prospects is fun, the impact is two-fold. Some graduate to your big league roster and make an impact (Sano/Berrios/Buxton), others provide an impact by allowing you to improve your big league roster and have their day elsewhere (see Cubs/Red Sox).
 
I'm not sure what the asking price for impact pitchers, a bat, or relievers will be during this trade deadline, but Minnesota would be wise not to shy away. Nick Gordon is having a great year at Double-A, but if you can turn him and a few others into a player that has a great year for the Twins in 2017 and beyond, absolutely it's something to be considered.
 
2017 has opened a window for competition in Minnesota thanks to a handful of reasons. While the Twins may be exceeding expectations, they are also highlighting the weakness of the AL Central as a whole. The Indians aren't running away with anything, and every other club is either not competitive, or has its warts. That same scenario should remain in play for at least the next two years, at which point the White Sox system should begin to bear fruit.
 
In mentioning that White Sox system, it's of note that Chicago may threaten the Twins longevity the most. Through trades in the last year, the Southsiders have added the #2, 12, 14, 16, 45, and 77th best prospects in all of baseball (per MLB.com pre-2017 rankings) as well as a 1st round draft pick and top International signing. They have gone full rebuild, and the level of prospects in their system should quickly become impact big leaguers.
 
During the deadline this summer, and in the upcoming offseason, the Twins would be operating entirely wrong if they aren't going for it. Thanks to the youth contributing at a high level, their window has opened, and will remain wide for at least the next couple of seasons. Spending money on a big name pitcher or shoring up the bullpen with a handful of different suitors should be the expectation not the hope. While they may come up short in 2017, or find an early playoff exit, bringing in an asset or two that helps now and down the road is hardly a bad decision.
 
Given the landscape of the division, and the state of the organization as a whole, the Twins time to wait on the next prospect has ceased, and it's time to supplement what they have. The nucleus is there, and the new front office will be tasked with adding to it taking the club over the top.
 
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Over the course of the past three seasons, no young player has been more polarizing for the Minnesota Twins than Eddie Rosario. Despite being an early adopter on his bandwagon, and ready for a breakout in 2015, I've been nothing short of a skeptic since 2016 and beyond. In 2017 however, he's having his best offensive year as a big leaguer, and small tweaks are the big story.
 
After a slow first two weeks to start the season (in which Rosario slashed just .186/.239/.209), he's been a necessary lineup fixture for Minnesota. Despite being consistently tied to a high likelihood of chasing pitches and flailing outside of the zone, he's seemingly been intent upon abandoning those descriptors and has turned over a new leaf. From April 18 until July 17, Rosario owns a .307/.341/.508 slash line. While he's still struck out significantly more than he's walked (51/13), the ratio has turned for the better on both sides.
Over the three years he's spent in the big leagues, the drastic strides at the plate this season are showing themselves numerically. Owning a 24.9% and 25.7% strikeout rate the past two seasons, he's cut the number to just 19.5% in 2017. He's struck out less because of having gone from a 14.5% swinging strike rate in 2015 (and 15.3% last year), to 12.6% this season. Swinging at less pitches out of the zone (38% in 2017 as opposed to 45.6% in 2015) is no doubt going to raise the water level as well.
 
During his debut season, only the Red Sox Pablo Sandoval (47.8%) and the Orioles Adam Jones (46.5%) chased pitches out of the zone more often than Rosario's 45.6%. Swinging through 14.5% of pitches he took a hack at, Rosario also fared 10th worst in baseball among hitters in 2015. Thanks to his increased discipline, he now ranks 17th lowest in baseball when it comes to chase rate (bad, but much improved), as well as 41st in SwStr% (which is a big leap). As witnessed by his swings and misses outside of the zone since 2015 as well, pitch recognition is something he's vastly improved upon.
 
While Rosario is far from an elite hitter at this point, it's no coincidence that his slight changes have helped to post his first big league OPS above .300. As things stand currently, he also paces the Twins with a .289 average. Still a work in progress, enough can't be made about the strides Rosario has made at the plate for Minnesota.
 
Unfortunately, the downside to the offensive growth is the defensive slide. After tallying a ridiculous 12 assists from left field to go along with 10 defensive runs saved, he's fallen off. In 2016, his big league efforts resulted in basically a league average fielder, and this season, he's been worth -7 DRS and -2.2 UZR. Although Twins fans have dealt with the likes of Robbie Grossman, Josh Willingham, and Delmon Young in left field, Rosario hasn't been any sort of steadying presence this campaign either.
 
There can't be enough noise made about how important Rosario's offensive changes have been. As the defense now holds him back, the wonder continues to be whether he can put it all together. Rosario at his best presents a dream outfield scenario for the Twins, but he'll need to present the reassurance that he's still capable of that. It's pretty crazy to think that we'd reach a point of Rosario being fine offensively while lacking in the outfield, but here we are. Minnesota needs him to come full circle, and doing so soon would be a nice boost.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Some comments made by Twins center fielder Byron Buxton during the road trip to Fenway Park last week sent the blogosphere/Twittersphere into a tizzy. Buxton, who has hit just .209/.283/.303 this season coming into Thursday night’s game against the Orioles, told Jake Depue of 1500ESPN that he had scorned the leg kick he used to start the season in order to put the ball in play more — including more balls hit on the ground.
 
“[The goal is] putting the ball in play more,” Buxton told Depue. “Putting it on the ground more to get it out of the air. With the leg kick I was more fly ball oriented. It didn’t give me a chance to get on base. Now putting it on the ground I at least have the chance of beating it out or them rushing the throw and making an error.”
 
It’s not hard to read what Buxton said and be immediately discouraged. There’s a reason why the catchphrase among hitters is “Elevate and celebrate.” It’s not exactly earth-shattering science, either; hit the ball on the ground, and you limit yourself to singles and lots of outs. Hit it in the air, and you’re open to not only singles, but extra-base hits of all shapes and sizes.
 
So to hear what Buxton said and not immediately think that he was moving away from his strength and ceiling for the false security of the “safety” of his speed is totally understandable.
 
But according to hitting coach James Rowson, the fears are also unfounded.
 
Make no mistake about it: the Twins are in no way trying to get Buxton to be a slap-happy, beat-it-into-the-ground-and-beat-the-throw kind of hitter.
 
“Absolutely not,” Rowson said of the seemingly prevalent thought that the Twins wanted Buxton to hit the ball into the ground and use his speed as his primary offensive weapon. “Absolutely not. Here’s the deal: I clearly do not want Byron Buxton to hit the ball on the ground and run. (laughs) That is not in the plan. Without a doubt, he’s has a chance to be a dynamic player in this league for years to come and he has the ability to drive the baseball.”
 
Rowson added that he was encouraged by Buxton’s progress even as recently as Thursday night, as the youngster absolutely peppered some balls on the way to a 2-for-4 night — his second multi-hit game in a row and third over his last six games.
 
“Just last night he hit three balls over 100 mph, which shows you that he’s hitting baseballs hard in the last few days,” Rowson said. “It’s starting to come along. No, the goal is not to hit balls on the ground. The goal is going to be to use the whole field and hit balls hard.”
 
Please click through to read the rest of this article here on ZoneCoverage.com.

In the third inning of the Minnesota Twins’ 8-1 loss to the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on Friday night, Brian Dozier hit a long foul ball to the right field corner on a 1-1 pitch from Royals starter Jason Vargas. It was initially ruled foul, and manager Paul Molitor asked for a review.
 
After the review, the call was upheld due to inconclusive evidence to overturn the call.
 
Well, how is this for evidence?
 

 
Luke Thomas appears to be a recent graduate of Missouri State University in Springfield, having studied Socio-Political Communications according to his Facebook page.
 
https://twitter.com/BrianDozier/status/880999860773810176
 
See this post in its entirety on ZoneCoverage.com here.

NOTE: View the images and breakdowns included in this article at it's original source here.
 
The date is April 20, 2017, and Byron Buxton has just played in his 15th game for the Minnesota Twins this season. To show for his efforts, he's compiled a .082/.135/.122 slash line across 49 at bats, and nothing looks to be going right for the one-time uber-prospect. If there was a rock bottom for the Georgia native in the early going this season, that was most definitely it. Since however, the Twins centerfielder has turned a corner, and the results are worth taking note of.
 
Over the course of the 2017 slate to date, it's been noted that Buxton would remain an asset given his exceptional centerfield defense. He covers ground at an elite level, and is among the best in the game at taking away would be run producing plays. What was always the question, is how long the Twins would have to punt on him in the lineup, solely to keep his glove in the outfield. Although just a small sample size, the time he's spent on the field from April 21 onwards suggests we may be seeing him turn a corner.
As of May 10, Buxton has played 12 games for the Twins since April 21. He owns a .333/.442/.500 slash line, while contributing a double, triple, and home run. After fanning 24 times and drawing just two walks in his first 15 games, he's compiled a very solid 9/7 K/BB ratio since. Buxton has halved his K% (46.2% down to 20.9% split between both samples), and he's multiplied a 4.3 LD% ten-fold (41.7 LD% since 4/21). There's virtually no numerical value that doesn't suggest a massive turnaround for the Twins young outfielder. Maybe most promising of all, the process at the plate appears to be driving the results.
 
Early on, Buxton was swinging through pitches all over the zone, but he was chasing outside of it an incredible amount as well. Per Baseball Savant, Buxton swung through 22 (of 204 pitches seen) balls outside of the zone prior to April 21. Fast forwarding through his most recent 12 games, he's swung and missed at just eight (of 179 pitches seen) balls out of the zone. He's holding back on inside pitches, and darting out at breaking balls away much less.
 
Also, when making contact, we can visibly see just how much better the bat is meeting the ball. Buxton is swinging through the centerpoint of the ball more often, allowing a higher percentage of strong contact.
 
It's also important to note that most of what Buxton has changed has been a result of his own doing. Opposing pitchers haven't attacked him too incredibly different of late either. The book on him has been to bust him in, as well as getting him to flail away. Having seen a high portion of balls down and away, Buxton is seeing less pitches over the middle of the plate. Generally a pull hitter, pitchers have tried to neutralize his tendency by forcing him to deal with the outside pitch.
 
Looking at swings roughly a month a part, there's some slight tweaks happening there as well. Facing the White Sox on April 7. Stepping into the box, it appears that Buxton has more of a straight forward plan lef. There's a slight openness to it, but his stance is squared off by definition. The bat is cocked back with his hands flexed. Looking at his process on May 9, the stance has an open plant leg, with hands resting a bit more upright and the bat head remaining high.
Buxton's first movement is to drop his hands and create somewhat of an upward lean with his torso. In the image from May 9, his hands stay cocked, while the upper body hovers still in an upright position.
While pitch locations differ, the follow through follows a drastically different path as well. In the first image, Buxton's ankle rollover is drastic, his head has pulled off the pitch, and his high finish has him looking anywhere but at the ball. When making contact on May 9, Buxton stares down at his swing path, has his head at the point of contact, and keeps a strong plant leg without any real significant rollover.
 
Sure, it's fair to suggest that putting any instances in a vacuum will result in a desirable outcome. What seems to be at play here, as a whole, is a guy that's made some minor tweaks and is seeing some major results. I still don't think that Byron Buxton is a .300 hitter at the big league level, but expecting him to push for .280 with power is a pretty safe bet in my eyes. This is a young hitter still trying to find his way, but if these changes continue to hold up, it won't take until September 2017 for them to be on full display.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

New Line Cinema released a furious preview for their remake of Stephen King's It, and the excitement drove me to pick up my well-worn hardcover of the book to reread it slowly and deliberately. I hope to become so connected with the terrors of Derry, Maine, that I risk waking up to find myself staring at the house on Neibolt Street. Or worse.
 
Last night, I read something that sparked my imagination. Mike Hanlon, future librarian and member of the heroic Loser's Club, referred to listening to the 1958 Washington Senators. He's right to worry about their performance (the Senators lost 93 games that year), but he's completely unaware those Senators will become the Minnesota Twins in 1961. He's already listening to future Twins greats like Camilo Pascual and Harmon Killebrew.
 
Clearly, I must take this tiniest bit of trivia and blow it completely out of proportion. Therefore, I proclaim the Minnesota Twins are the official baseball team of Derry, Maine, on the basis of my complete lack of authority.
 
Most Stephen King creations tend to develop ties with the Boston Red Sox, but this is Twins time. Big Steve owes us for David Ortiz, right?
 
The movie is expected to come out in September, which leaves plenty of time to establish Derry Daze at Target Field. The organist can play jaunty circus music. Pennywise the Dancing Clown can throw out an orange pom-pom as the first pitch. And every fan gets a balloon. They'll be environmentally safe, but you can bet that EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THOSE BALLOONS WILL FLOOOOOOOOOAT!
 
If needed, I would volunteer to dress up as Pennywise. I'd even sit behind the opposing team's dugout and scream "BEEP-BEEP!" any time they try to talk.
 
It's the least I can do.
 
Axel