twinstalker

Some of these guys need to start accepting the qualifying offer. My understanding is that not only is it a great salary, but a team can't offer it two years in a row.

People are making this too difficult. The first thing I notice is that Minnesota fans are not at all familiar with the concept of depth. Every team, from the Twins to the Gophers (hoops and FB) to the Wolves back in the day, every team has been shallow as hell. Then someone gets hurt, and we cry "why can't we have nice things?" and wonder why Minnesota sports are so bad or cursed. But the fact is that the men who've run the show in every sport haven't had much of a clue. Bad owners, bad front offices. Until now. So Falvine is here, and guys like Aybar and others appear on the scene. It's not because Aybar has a chance in the status quo, it's that he's a legit plan B if something bad happens. Kennys Vargas isn't an option unless needed. Same with Granite. Same with a bunch of the pitching this year. IF: Mauer, Dozier, LoMo, Escobar, Sano, Polanco, Adrianza OF: Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Grossman The pitching will work itself out. There will be injuries, and Falvine will make strategic decisions based on spring training, options, injuries, etc. Basically, if you have options, it probably means your default is to start the year in the minors. It's a long season, and sending a guy like Busenitz down makes sense on many levels. Vargas--will be DFA'd, but if LoMo or Mauer goes down to injury, we have depth. Aybar--will get his release. But if Sano, Escobar, Adrianza, Polanco, or Dozier goes down, we have an MLB ready guy to maybe find room for. Granite--will be sent down. I see very little value in him (the ball does not come off his bat well against MLB pitching) and would deal him if another team needed his skill set. Meanwhile, he gets called up with an injury to the OF. He can play a good CF and might not hurt you too bad for a short period. Grossman--obvious choice. His background says he's very good vs lhp, and he gets on base. If he just loses it and can't be a decent force vs lhp, you do not replace him with Granite, you go outside the organization for a rh bat. This is not the old Twins way of thinking. If Hughes continues to suck, they will cut ties with him, but they're right to see if the latest surgery and rehab brings back his effectiveness. Same with Pressly and Duffey, iyam. Romero and Gonsalves go down, and there's really nothing that keeps them up, save for being exceptional all spring and having injury or performance issue with other pitchers. A guy like Fernando Rodney is being paid, but there is likely a short leash. No reliever getting sent down should expect to be there for long. Sanchez and his ilk--probably has a chance to pretty good, a very small chance, but I wouldn't discount the possibility. A bunch of these guys might not be good, but from a group, one can emerge, and that's someone like Sanchez (or Hughes). So, given no injuries, the position players are easy, and the pitching will figure itself out over the course of March. And if the Twins have injuries during March, they've finally addressed the lack of depth issues they've had forever.

Foremost, if you're sitting in the #1 position in the draft, it's almost by definition stupid to take a pitcher due to the risk. That pitcher would have to be a college pitcher who sets himself apart from not only the other pitchers but maybe the past decade of pitchers and of course the hitters. I think Strasburg is an example of that. But if Harper is in that draft, you don't take Strasburg. I have no issue with the Twins taking Lewis number one, especially given that doing so allowed some financial freedom and creativity. However, let's not forget we're only going to get a partial season and six full years before he hits free agency. Scott Boras isn't about to change his ways wrt his players playing out their team control asap. And knowing that, the Twins will really be facing decisions on whether to trade Lewis by his second or third full year. That's not optimal.

Whoa, first thing I notice is that Killebrew is not in LF and Morneau is not DH. Haven't read the comments.

I absolutely love it when someone argues against something they wanted me to say instead of what I said. "Why, yes, I've said it before and I'll say it again...Pearson will NEVER have more than a cup of coffee in MLB." This, according to you, is what I said. Thanks bunch. Also, as far as potential goes, 80% (made up) of players have some sort of really high ceiling they'll never reach. In Pearson's case, his potential if all goes right is said to be 20/20. Again, in a vacuum, who would you take if you had to choose a player for the franchise you're starting, Zach Littell or Pearson? I highly doubt more than a very small percentage would take Pearson. I doubt Seth would, which is what I'm arguing.

You seriously think a 3rd round pick from the most recent draft who struggled is a better prospect than a pitcher who commanded the price of a legit MLB pitcher (Garcia) and dominated AA? Let's put it this way. If knowing what you know now could have thrown Zack Littell into the 2017 draft, again, knowing he's dominated AA and is ready for AAA, would you ever take an outfielder at least five years away whose upside potential is 20/20? I like that the Twins used their cap space to acquire Pearson, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. It's likely he'll never have more than a cup of coffee, and if he does, he'll be at best average. And yes, I could use the same argument with Littell and others you have listed ahead of him. Lewin Diaz comes immediately to mind.

I've been thinking about this all wrong...

I don't think we should assume Kiriloff is in Seth's top 5. (Okay, I'm kidding, but this is why I think prospect lists should be presented in the opposite direction)

The two with high ceilings here are Thorpe (obviously) and Littell (potential to be a long-term starter). Garver and Wade will be at best role players, and Diaz' future is murky. I would rank these five as 1. Thorpe 2. Littell . 3. Garver . . . . . 4.Wade 5. Diaz

No way in hell Lewin Diaz gets picked. No way in hell Twins were going to lose Thorpe. Those were the biggest two locks I had. Lewis Thorpe would be the first pick or essentially the first pick, given the maneuvering teams do up front in Rule V. Diaz, of course, can't help a single team and can't be wasted space with so few position spots used. And unless something clicks, I don't see much evidence for high-end potential.

I think almost by definition "core" means players you're 90% sure will be a Twin two years from now. I wouldn't give Escobar a 30% chance.

Thanks for these. One thing that would be nice is a more consistent addition of records, playoff status, and games behind/ahead, if pertinent. Record either before the game starts or after. Thanks!

I thought no one lost out on the playoffs due to a tiebreaker.

Well, when you no longer have Garver...

Did Slegers have to be put on the 40 for this, or am I so dumb that he's been on the 40 all year? If not, where do you make the space, because I have to believe he'll be up as soon as possible.

The more I've thought about it, the more it makes sense to me that Joe Mauer will be on this team longer than just 2018. His options will be to continue playing on the cheap for some team or retiring. I think the compromise that he'll see is that if the Twins will have him, he gets to stay home and continue his career. The money probably doesn't really matter to him. I'm not sure what the Twins would pay him, but I'd guess they'd have to see some value in his lh bat and ability to play some 1B. It would actually surprise me if Mauer took a multiyear contract in lieu of playing for the Twns...if the Twins want him. I think Mauer has no real records to chase. He likes baseball, probably, and he probably wants to be around his parents and kids both. What do you think happens with Mauer in 2019?

Unfortunately, Sano's desires to be a good 3B probably won't outweigh his appetite for, well, food. Other than his obvious affection for food, his mentality won't play a part in his move. Being 24 is why he can play 3B now. When he's 27 and the desire to be the best fielder he can be has waned, he'll be only a 1B. Everyone sees that, and I don't think it's really going to matter when, post-Mauer. In 2019 Mauer might well be gone (I think there's a good chance he stays cheaply to be part-time on a Twins winner). Dozier will be gone. Gordon will be up and will have struggled. Polanco will be here. Sano playing 1B most of the time probably depends on whether Rooker, Lewis, or some wild card forces playing time. Whatever happens, I don't see this as being too crowded.

What I meant to say was that it is clear by looking at the Appy league we have the most talent in baseball. How else would you explain six championships since 2000? First off, all the "prospects" in any league are younger than the league. That's a large part of what makes them prospects. It's usually by about 2-2.5 years in rookie ball unless a college guy goes there first for a little wooden bat seasoning. Second, last time I looked, about half the teams in the Appy had a short season league in between it and the low A ball affiliate. My point was Elizabethton beats up on rookie league pitching. And that the best hitters this month includes those very guys plus two guys who are not really prospects at all and one who's going to be 27 by the time he ever takes a team-meaningful AB for the Twins. That is, three guys going against inferior pitching and three guys who have the distinct look of AAAA.

So let me see if I've got this straight. The six best hitters are 31, 29, and 26 or playing in a league that is advanced rookie ball for the Twins but the equivalent of the GCL for a number of the other teams. (Hey, why do you think the Twins win the Appy so often?) This bodes badly for the organization.

Yeah, a few points. 1) Pohlads have made horrible business decision after horrible business decision. The saving grace is that Falvine probably doesn't care about Jim Pohlad losing a few dollars. I'm not sure I understand the insurance thing, though, if in fact it's true what someone said. If Hughes salary is fully insured if he can't play, and you know he can't play, then it is a really good move to keep him on the 40 in the offseason, 60-day DL him in the season, and start spending the 26 million or whatever to help your team. 2) Someone mentioned the Twins might trade some of these candidates for a player before the Rule V. Trust me, that kind of trade doesn't happen because other teams are trying to pare down their lists, too. 3) Comparison of Diaz to Kepler regarding protecting against Rule V: ugh. Kepler was always more highly thought of than Diaz. But even if they were the same, Kepler could play all three OF positions and 1B. 4) Gimenez is a definite drop but will likely be in spring training next year. Slegers is a definite no-keep unless they just have no one else, really, to keep. Keep in mind this team will likely be adding MLB bodies. Falvine understands the organization now and will add where appropriate.

I don't think this discussion makes as much sense without the context of the number of spots they'll have available. And you leave a guy like Enns out of the discussion, assuming he'll be a 40. We've got guys who will not be on the 40 (e.g. Belisle) and we've got guys who could well be dropped (e.g. Vargas). We've got guys on the 60-day DL who may or may not need to be included. Given all that, yes, Gonsalves is a lock and Littel is a lock, but Lewis Thorpe has to be next. His stuff is definitely good enough to stash on an MLB roster for a year and use as a mop up. On the other hand, who in the world would stash Lewin Diaz? Roster spots for position players are at a premium these days, and if you aren't a valuable defensive player, you do not get selected in Rule V.

I'm very afraid of being put on double-secret probation for what I might say here, I'll start with this: do you know who traded Mejia to the Twins? Does he value his farm system (in trades) the same way other GMs do? Does he overpay compared to other GMs? And finally, was his team a possible trading partner this season? Also, how good is Mejia? Is he that much better than Littel? Any better? All I know is that the Twins won't have to use a 40-man spot to find out yet, and they can use it on someone they know is ready (Gonsalves, Enns, free agent) while not having to start Littel and Watson's clock. And even though I don't think Mejia is necessarily where he needs to be, are you telling me you had confidence in Mejia at this time last year? Last year, instead of spending $4 million for two guys (Littel and Watson) who are free to keep in the system and two more who may be immediately helpful, they gave up Nunez (who's opportunity cost could have landed a Littel) and Alex Meyer for someone (Mejia) no better than Meyer and a guy just like Enns (Busenitz).

I haven't read to see if someone's responded to this, but consider the logic for a moment. First, the low A guy is now on your team for a year or two before you have to place him on your 40 man roster. In essence, the cost to keep this relatively valuable commodity is free. Whether you trade Kintzler or not, his 40 man spot opens up. Over the winter you get the chance to fill this spot the way you want to fill this spot. That may be through free agency or as part of a different trade. Whatever the Twins do to fill that spot, they could not have gotten Watson to keep for free if they had traded for a good young player with lots of upside. That's obvious. Now find me a team that will deal a good young player with lots of upside for Kintzler. It ain't happening. Hey, here's something you can do, if you want. You can get both Watson and Kintzler for the cost of Kintzler by paying for Kintzler in free agency. But my bet is that when Kintzler becomes available the Twins will look elsewhere with their money. In other words, the best play to make here that is something another team would actually do is to trade Kintzler for a far away prospect.

There are a number of game theory moves being made here that the old regime seemed not to be adept at. Thus far, the general impression I get is that these trades not only are decent in and of themselves but help to better situate the Twins system. Foremost, if you thought the Twins were anything but smoke and mirrors, and this recent slide combined with CLE and KC going on terrors didn't convince you 2017 is over, well, I can't help you. Nobody can. You're a hopeless romantic, maybe with little interest or grasp of the process it takes to create a winning organization if you think these trades seem non-worthwhile. Over the past few days the Twins have added money to sign some Int'l guys, two guys who might help soon in relief and two guys who have a chance to be a part of future rotations (with a downside of relief hopefuls) at the expense of Huoscar Ynoa and $4 mil that was only going into the Pohlad pockets. The only real lottery ticket in this mess is Ynoa, and the Twins gave him up because lottery tickets don't pay off. TJS Burdi is a better bet than Ynoa. The two potential starters do not have to go on the 40 man this winter, and given that they'll be 8-15 on the Twins list at A+ and AA to start 2018, that's huge. These are the moves that other teams make that we never notice and suddenly we're asking where Corey Kluber came from. The new regime understands what to look for, pitching-wise, while we know Terry Ryan had very little competence in this area in the last decade plus. If you're going to be upset that the Twins gave something up toward this end, be upset about the lottery ticket Ynoa, not Kintzler, an ex-Twin either now or in a number of weeks. But keep in mind I've lost a lot of lottery tickets and never worried I couldn't find them to check the numbers. Littel isn't a lottery ticket, he's a good gamble. He has a good chance to pay off. As does Watson. The relievers Moya and Enns will have to go on the 40-man, one of them in place of the useless JRM, but that's okay. They're not important in or of themselves but represent a larger group of players with a real chance to be helpful, and they allow the Twins to fire more bullets in the offseason, if needed. As for Dozier and Santana, both appear more helpful to winning and providing veteran leadership than they are at having prospect value. Ride them out unless it makes sense to take an offer.

If you define a heavy number of teams as 25+, you're right, it isn't close to true. I define heavy as more than a few. In other words, many, but I should clarify I was talking about starters and not including guys currently on the Twins. In other words, Romero and Gonsalves. I dig for starting prospects across all of baseball, and those are the only two I want from the Twins. Hell, I think the Brewers have three at AAA, and I don't think much of the Brewers (though that's changing). In other words, ugly. Put all the lipstick you want on it, it's ugly. So, yes, my statement is very true if you're objective. I'd say I've easily found 12-15 teams where it's true for me (8 of top 10), and I'm biased to like Twins! Falvey and Levine, let's hope they know what they're doing.