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Everything posted by Tom Froemming
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The first big addition of the Derek Falvey era was done in design to improve the team's defense, an area that had gone serially overlooked in recent years. Let's hope the defensive upgrades continue, as there has been a strong correlation between team defense and success for the Twins. Take a look through the more than 220 comments on Parker's article and it becomes obvious there is not a consensus among Twins Daily readers on whether or not it was wise to sign Jason Castro to a three-year, $24.5 million deal. Only time will tell, but an upgrade at catcher, particularly in terms of defense, was a huge need. It's a good start, as Nick noted, but there are still plenty of areas of improvement. And it's worth noting that defense has been a huge factor in the team's successes and failures over the years.Over the past 15 seasons, the Twins have ranked in the top half in team defense seven times, according to Fangraphs. They had a winning record in six of those seasons (every year but '07 when they were 79-83) and made the playoffs five times. In the eight years they've fielded a below-average defense (which includes each of the past six seasons), the Twins have been over .500 twice with just one postseason appearance ('09, Joe Mauer's MVP season). With an above average defense, the Twins have averaged 89 wins and with a sub-par defense they've averaged just 72 wins. And that's pretty close to being in line with what you see across the league. Taking a look at the past five seasons, teams who finished in the top 10 in defense averaged 85 wins and those in the bottom ten averaged just 75 wins. It's very difficult to be a good team that's bad at catching the baseball. As always, there are plenty of exceptions. The '14 Reds and Red Sox both ranked in the top five in defense but lost 86 and 91 games, respectively. On the other end, the '15 Pirates won 98 games despite being in the bottom five in defense. Last season, the Twins were 29th in defense, ahead of only Oakland. The only position where the Twins had above average glove work was at first base, where they ranked 8th. Center field (16th) and second base (19th) were spots where the team was at least passable. But right field (23rd), third base (24th), catcher (25th), and shortstop (27th) were all pain points for the Twins' defense, and thanks to Robbie Grossman's horrendous performance the team had the worst-rated left field defense in baseball. The hope is that Castro will boost the defense behind the dish, but what about the other positions? Max Kepler spent more time in right field with the Twins last season than he had played the position over his entire minor league career. Hopefully with more reps in right his defense will improve, he certainly appears to have the physical tools to be an above average fielder. In left, Eddie Rosario has been one of the best defenders in baseball the past two seasons. But he only accounted for about a third of the innings in left last season, as he spent some time in Rochester and played some center field. That leaves the biggest unanswered questions are on the left side of the infield. The obvious in-house candidates to fill those spots are Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco and Eduardo Escobar. If I'm going to give Kepler a break due to lack of minor league reps in right, I suppose I need to do the same for both Sano at third (thanks to his 2014 Tommy John surgery) and Polanco at shortstop (because he inexplicably played second base last season in Rochester). But it would be risky to hope they can both make the major improvements necessary to become even just average defensively. Considering they'd be playing next to each other in the field, a lack of improvement from both would be a defensive disaster. In his offseason blueprint, Seth recently offered up punchless leatherwizard (copyright Eric Longenhagen) Engelb Vielma as a glove-first alternate at shortstop. Vielma hasn't played above Double A, but for what it's worth both Falvey and GM Thad Levine have had success aggressively promoting young shortstops (not that Vielma is anywhere near the prospect Francisco Lindor or Elvis Andrus were). The only other player with infield experience on the 40-man roster is Danny Santana, and the free agent market is thin. How everything shakes out in the infield also relies heavily on whether or not Brian Dozier is traded. With the Winter Meetings coming up this week, many more questions may be answered. What would you like to see the Twins do to improve their defense? Click here to view the article
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- derek falvey
- jason castro
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Over the past 15 seasons, the Twins have ranked in the top half in team defense seven times, according to Fangraphs. They had a winning record in six of those seasons (every year but '07 when they were 79-83) and made the playoffs five times. In the eight years they've fielded a below-average defense (which includes each of the past six seasons), the Twins have been over .500 twice with just one postseason appearance ('09, Joe Mauer's MVP season). With an above average defense, the Twins have averaged 89 wins and with a sub-par defense they've averaged just 72 wins. And that's pretty close to being in line with what you see across the league. Taking a look at the past five seasons, teams who finished in the top 10 in defense averaged 85 wins and those in the bottom ten averaged just 75 wins. It's very difficult to be a good team that's bad at catching the baseball. As always, there are plenty of exceptions. The '14 Reds and Red Sox both ranked in the top five in defense but lost 86 and 91 games, respectively. On the other end, the '15 Pirates won 98 games despite being in the bottom five in defense. Last season, the Twins were 29th in defense, ahead of only Oakland. The only position where the Twins had above average glove work was at first base, where they ranked 8th. Center field (16th) and second base (19th) were spots where the team was at least passable. But right field (23rd), third base (24th), catcher (25th), and shortstop (27th) were all pain points for the Twins' defense, and thanks to Robbie Grossman's horrendous performance the team had the worst-rated left field defense in baseball. The hope is that Castro will boost the defense behind the dish, but what about the other positions? Max Kepler spent more time in right field with the Twins last season than he had played the position over his entire minor league career. Hopefully with more reps in right his defense will improve, he certainly appears to have the physical tools to be an above average fielder. In left, Eddie Rosario has been one of the best defenders in baseball the past two seasons. But he only accounted for about a third of the innings in left last season, as he spent some time in Rochester and played some center field. That leaves the biggest unanswered questions are on the left side of the infield. The obvious in-house candidates to fill those spots are Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco and Eduardo Escobar. If I'm going to give Kepler a break due to lack of minor league reps in right, I suppose I need to do the same for both Sano at third (thanks to his 2014 Tommy John surgery) and Polanco at shortstop (because he inexplicably played second base last season in Rochester). But it would be risky to hope they can both make the major improvements necessary to become even just average defensively. Considering they'd be playing next to each other in the field, a lack of improvement from both would be a defensive disaster. In his offseason blueprint, Seth recently offered up punchless leatherwizard (copyright Eric Longenhagen) Engelb Vielma as a glove-first alternate at shortstop. Vielma hasn't played above Double A, but for what it's worth both Falvey and GM Thad Levine have had success aggressively promoting young shortstops (not that Vielma is anywhere near the prospect Francisco Lindor or Elvis Andrus were). The only other player with infield experience on the 40-man roster is Danny Santana, and the free agent market is thin. How everything shakes out in the infield also relies heavily on whether or not Brian Dozier is traded. With the Winter Meetings coming up this week, many more questions may be answered. What would you like to see the Twins do to improve their defense?
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Article: REPORT: Twins To Sign Jason Castro
Tom Froemming replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
My fear is as umpires start to pay more attention to this stuff and understand who the guys are with the reputations of being the best framers, they'll be more cognizant and shrink their zone for that catcher. It's sort of like when the batter has a reputation of having a good eye it seems sometimes they get calls just because the ump gives them the benefit of the doubt. I've also wondered if framing skills carry over when a catcher switches teams. Isn't it possible Castro's numbers were so good because the Astros pitchers were really good at painting the black? Could it be some "stolen" strikes should be credited to the pitcher? Either way, the Twins desperately needed a catcher, and there doesn't appear to be a long-term solution in house until maybe 19-year-old Ben Rortvedt is ready, and that's assuming he makes it. Both Murphy and Garver look like decent backups at best.- 223 replies
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Article: Flipping Toward A Brighter Future
Tom Froemming replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Um ... the 2016 Chicago Cubs.- 28 replies
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There's been a lot of speculation about how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine may build up the Minnesota Twins. Will they trade, draft, buy or develop their way to a brighter future for the Twins? Well I'm wondering if it may be possible for them to also flip their way toward improving the team's outlook. Flipping houses is back en vogue, and it seems there's some opportunity to apply the same concepts related to flipping houses to rebuilding a ball club. Teams have all kinds of ways they can improve their future outlook, but is it possible to simply flip your way to a brighter future?Probably the best example of a team successfully flipping a player from last season was the Oakland A's handling of Rich Hill. Despite not expecting to be competitive, the A's signed Hill to a one-year, $6 million deal over the winter. From the moment the signing was announced it was speculated that the A's were out to flip Hill at the trade deadline. Entering his age 36 season, it was no guarantee Hill would replicate his impressive 2015 numbers that came from just four starts. But Hill was able to thrive over 14 starts with Oakland and was packaged with Josh Reddick to land a trio of promising pitching prospects from the Dodgers: Jharel Cotton, Frankie Montas and Grant Holmes. The Cubs using this strategy with Scott Feldman in 2013 stick out as maybe the greatest example of the strategy. Unlike Hill, Feldman was coming off a terrible season when he signed with the Cubs, posting a 5.09 ERA. But with past success and youth on his side, Chicago gave him a one-year, $6 million deal. Feldman turned in the best performance of his career over 15 starts as a Cub, and was sent as the headliner in a deal for Jake Arrieta. I'm sure even the most optimistic person the the Cubs' front office didn't see that working out as well as it did, but even at the time the logic was sound. Acquiring younger players with more upside and more years of control always makes sense. Even with that being the case, those trades rarely work out even close to that well. Now that Arrieta is a Cy Young pitcher and the Cubs are world champions that's looking like one of the greatest trades of all time. This is clearly not on that same level, but the Twins were able to flip Fernando Abad last season. No, Pat Light is not a franchise-changing piece, but the Twins did well to turn a guy they signed to a minor league deal into a younger player with upside who has more years of team control. That's the goal. So how might the Twins employ the tactic this offseason? Looking at guys who have the potential to be larger scale flips, someone who sticks out as a potential reclamation project among hitters is old friend Carlos Gomez. Levine's Rangers acquired him midseason from the Astros and saw him turn things around. After receiving MVP consideration in 2013 and 2014 things fell apart for Gomez. In his time with the Astros, he hit even worse than when he was a Twin, which eventually led to his release. But in a short sample of 130 at-bats with the Rangers Gomez had a .905 OPS. He's seeking a multi-year deal, but you never know how the market will turn out. We saw Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler sit on the market until late February last offseason. Both had to settle for one-year deals. It's difficult to predict who, but it seems likely somebody in this free agent class will end up being a great bargain for the last few teams with money left to spend. On the pitching side, there are plenty of guys who could dramatically increase their value, but no one who jumps out to the extent Hill did last offseason. Brett Anderson is probably at the top of the list. Anderson has been one of the least healthy pitchers in the game since debuting with Oakland as a 21-year-old back in 2009. He turns 29 in February, and has had his share of both successes and failures over his career. Overall he has an ERA+ of 105, a 3.70 FIP and 2.77 K/BB ratio for his career. The combination of suppressed value and potential upside make Anderson an ideal candidate to flip. Here are some other intriguing names among starting pitchers ... Derek Holland: When news first broke Texas declined his option it didn't really move the needle for me, but I'm starting to come around. I'm not sure we've seen a healthy Holland at any point over the last three seasons. In 2013 he was the eighth-best pitcher in the AL per fWAR and entering his age 30 season there should still be something left in the tank. Signing him to a one-year deal would be an excellent low risk, potentially high reward deal. Henderson Alvarez: He's only thrown 22 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, but is also still just 26-years-old. When healthy he can sit in the mid-90s, but he's more of a control specialist than a strikeout pitcher. Jake Peavy: He's 35 and had a 5.54 ERA last season. But Eno Sarris recently highlighted his encouraging spin rates over at Fangraphs. If he's willing to pitch for a last-place team, it shouldn't be a problem landing him on an affordable one-year pact. Jorge De La Rosa: The veteran longtime Rockies hurler has actually pitched relatively well in Coors Field. Still, it would be interesting to see if he could thrive if he gets outside of pitching half his games in baseball's oddest environment. Out of the bullpen I see Santiago Casilla or Neftali Feliz as good options to flip. Either could be inserted directly into the closer role and rack up value quickly. In his offseason blueprint, Seth offered up David Hernandez as an affordable veteran who could be a fit for the Twins' bullpen. He also fits the bill of someone who could be flipped. Another strategy I'd be interested in would be converting a pitcher into a new role. Why not get creative and sign Travis Wood as a starter, or Andrew Cashner to pitch out of the bullpen? Might a guy like Wood even take a pay cut for the chance to start again? Who knows, maybe. I am under the assumption payroll will be reduced, but hopefully Falvey and Levine can talk the Pohlads into making one of these deals. If things work out, the return on investment can be enormous. Who would you target as a free agent to flip? Click here to view the article
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- rich hill
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Probably the best example of a team successfully flipping a player from last season was the Oakland A's handling of Rich Hill. Despite not expecting to be competitive, the A's signed Hill to a one-year, $6 million deal over the winter. From the moment the signing was announced it was speculated that the A's were out to flip Hill at the trade deadline. Entering his age 36 season, it was no guarantee Hill would replicate his impressive 2015 numbers that came from just four starts. But Hill was able to thrive over 14 starts with Oakland and was packaged with Josh Reddick to land a trio of promising pitching prospects from the Dodgers: Jharel Cotton, Frankie Montas and Grant Holmes. The Cubs using this strategy with Scott Feldman in 2013 stick out as maybe the greatest example of the strategy. Unlike Hill, Feldman was coming off a terrible season when he signed with the Cubs, posting a 5.09 ERA. But with past success and youth on his side, Chicago gave him a one-year, $6 million deal. Feldman turned in the best performance of his career over 15 starts as a Cub, and was sent as the headliner in a deal for Jake Arrieta. I'm sure even the most optimistic person the the Cubs' front office didn't see that working out as well as it did, but even at the time the logic was sound. Acquiring younger players with more upside and more years of control always makes sense. Even with that being the case, those trades rarely work out even close to that well. Now that Arrieta is a Cy Young pitcher and the Cubs are world champions that's looking like one of the greatest trades of all time. This is clearly not on that same level, but the Twins were able to flip Fernando Abad last season. No, Pat Light is not a franchise-changing piece, but the Twins did well to turn a guy they signed to a minor league deal into a younger player with upside who has more years of team control. That's the goal. So how might the Twins employ the tactic this offseason? Looking at guys who have the potential to be larger scale flips, someone who sticks out as a potential reclamation project among hitters is old friend Carlos Gomez. Levine's Rangers acquired him midseason from the Astros and saw him turn things around. After receiving MVP consideration in 2013 and 2014 things fell apart for Gomez. In his time with the Astros, he hit even worse than when he was a Twin, which eventually led to his release. But in a short sample of 130 at-bats with the Rangers Gomez had a .905 OPS. He's seeking a multi-year deal, but you never know how the market will turn out. We saw Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler sit on the market until late February last offseason. Both had to settle for one-year deals. It's difficult to predict who, but it seems likely somebody in this free agent class will end up being a great bargain for the last few teams with money left to spend. On the pitching side, there are plenty of guys who could dramatically increase their value, but no one who jumps out to the extent Hill did last offseason. Brett Anderson is probably at the top of the list. Anderson has been one of the least healthy pitchers in the game since debuting with Oakland as a 21-year-old back in 2009. He turns 29 in February, and has had his share of both successes and failures over his career. Overall he has an ERA+ of 105, a 3.70 FIP and 2.77 K/BB ratio for his career. The combination of suppressed value and potential upside make Anderson an ideal candidate to flip. Here are some other intriguing names among starting pitchers ... Derek Holland: When news first broke Texas declined his option it didn't really move the needle for me, but I'm starting to come around. I'm not sure we've seen a healthy Holland at any point over the last three seasons. In 2013 he was the eighth-best pitcher in the AL per fWAR and entering his age 30 season there should still be something left in the tank. Signing him to a one-year deal would be an excellent low risk, potentially high reward deal. Henderson Alvarez: He's only thrown 22 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, but is also still just 26-years-old. When healthy he can sit in the mid-90s, but he's more of a control specialist than a strikeout pitcher. Jake Peavy: He's 35 and had a 5.54 ERA last season. But Eno Sarris recently highlighted his encouraging spin rates over at Fangraphs. If he's willing to pitch for a last-place team, it shouldn't be a problem landing him on an affordable one-year pact. Jorge De La Rosa: The veteran longtime Rockies hurler has actually pitched relatively well in Coors Field. Still, it would be interesting to see if he could thrive if he gets outside of pitching half his games in baseball's oddest environment. Out of the bullpen I see Santiago Casilla or Neftali Feliz as good options to flip. Either could be inserted directly into the closer role and rack up value quickly. In his offseason blueprint, Seth offered up David Hernandez as an affordable veteran who could be a fit for the Twins' bullpen. He also fits the bill of someone who could be flipped. Another strategy I'd be interested in would be converting a pitcher into a new role. Why not get creative and sign Travis Wood as a starter, or Andrew Cashner to pitch out of the bullpen? Might a guy like Wood even take a pay cut for the chance to start again? Who knows, maybe. I am under the assumption payroll will be reduced, but hopefully Falvey and Levine can talk the Pohlads into making one of these deals. If things work out, the return on investment can be enormous. Who would you target as a free agent to flip?
- 28 comments
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One last thing regarding Soto, here's an overview of him vs. the top free agent guys: OPS 2013-2016 Soto .744 Ramos .734 Wieters .724 Castro .709 Framing 2013-2016 Castro 30.8 Soto 1.2 Ramos -2.8 Wieters -28.1 Career CS% Ramos 34% Wieters 33% Soto 27% Castro 26%
- 28 replies
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- jorge polanco
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Soto would be more of a stop gap, and while he's not anyone to grab headlines, he would represent an upgrade over Suzuki (not saying much I know). The ideal situation is he would be in a 60/40 split with one of the "younger" guys to open the year before rolling back into more of a bench role. I put younger in quotes because Murphy, Garver and Turner will all be either 25 or 26 this season. It's time to give them an opportunity, they shouldn't need anymore time in the minors. Garver's great season has carried over into the AFL and both Murphy and Turner had encouraging finishes to the MiLB season.
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I know this looks a lot like the team that lost 103 games, but it also looks pretty similar to the 2015 team that was in the playoff hunt all the way up to the last weekend of the season. My glass is half full right now, but I think it's realistic to expect the majority of the guys on that 25-man roster to perform better than they did last season. But if that doesn't happen, heck yeah, hold a fire sale and basically make it the goal to land the number one pick. I'd give these guys one more shot, then do an Astros-style bottoming out.
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The offseason is officially underway and it's time to play everybody's favorite game: November Fantasy Front Office Madness! Er, I guess everybody else is calling this their offseason blueprint. If you'd like to play along at home, the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook came out earlier this month, and along with an offseason blueprint from the Twins Daily regulars it includes everything you need to lay out your own future for the team. Several others have already joined in on the blueprint building, including Cody Christie and Cold Omaha's Brandon Warne, This is a lot of fun to do, if you don't like the blueprints I've laid below, head over to the forum (where there are already a few examples) or post a blog with your own plan, I love reading these things. All right, lets get down to it. First things first, you have to know what you're working with. After the worst season in franchise history, I'd expect the Pohlads would want to cut some payroll. Attendance dropped about 11.5%, so I'll build a similar reduction into my budget, aiming for around $93 million.Now before I get into the moves, let's figure out what the goal should be. Even with the budget dropping, I'd still want to present a team that could have a conceivable chance at contending, at least if everything went right. The new front office is going to create some positive buzz, and you wouldn't want to lose that by staging a massive fire sale. There's also the issue of building up the organization. Everything's about to change, and I'd prefer Derek Falvey and Thad Levine be able to devote as much time as needed getting the details right on how the org is structured and who else is hired even more so than building up the 2017 roster. I'd be fine with a quiet offseason if it meant amazing people were being hired into the front office, scouting department, etc. Okay, on to arbitration. These would be mainly budget cuts, but I would non-tender Trevor Plouffe and Brandon Kintzler. Both players could provide value to this year's team, but I'm not sure if either could surpass even their projected arbitration salaries on the open market. After watching his career for so long, it will be tough to watch Plouffe go, but it's time. I like Kintzler, but it's easy to find scrap heap relievers willing to sign minor league deals. I was tempted to let Hector Santiago go to open up some payroll, but with starting pitching being the team's biggest need I wouldn't want to downgrade the rotation any more than it already is. On top of that, I still think Santiago is a respectable pitcher. Yes, he'll walk his fare share of guys and give up homers, but he has a 103 ERA+ over six years. I think Santiago was tinkering with things when he first came to Minnesota (8.17 ERA in Aug.), but then went back to his usual formula at the end of the year (3.75 ERA in Sept./Oct.). Even with non-tendering Plouffe and Kintzler there's not a lot of room left in the budget for free agents. I'd like to leave the door open for John Ryan Murphy, Mitch Garver or Stuart Turner to establish themselves but it's obvious the Twins need a major league catcher. I think Geovany Soto represents the best buying opportunity in terms of bargain basement backstops in this year's free agent class. Soto, who turns 34 in January, signed a one-year, $2.8 million deal with the Angels last offseason and only played 28 games. Let's say we sign him for one-year, $2.25 million. Staying on the field has been a huge issue for Soto the last four seasons, but when healthy he's played well. Over those last four years, Soto has only 567 plate appearances, but his .431 slugging percentage is actually ahead of top free agent catchers Wilson Ramos (.429) and Matt Wieters (.422) over that same span. His defense is probably average at best, but that would still be an upgrade over Kurt Suzuki. An added bonus is Soto is Puerto Rican. To me, probably the most important thing of 2017 is the development of Jose Berrios. I think it could be extremely helpful to find a veteran to guide him as a player. It would be even better if that person could also relate to him personally and help him blossom into the beast we all believe he can become. I'd also like to see a legit major league shortstop added, but the market is extremely thin. Ruben Tejada signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal last offseason, and while he barely played it wouldn't surprise me that due to the thin market and his age (he's only 27) he gets a decent raise. We'll also put him down for one-year, $2.25 million. You don't get much from the bat, but he's been productive against lefties (.362 career OBP), is a decent defender at shortstop and can play second and third as well. And that's it. Those are the only major league contracts, at least. I'd bring in a few guys, particularly pitchers, on minor league deals and see what happens in spring training. I'd be particularly interested in a reunion with veteran Sean Burnett, who spent the bulk of last year pitching to a 2.15 ERA with Rochester. So there's gotta be a big trade, right? Nope, sorry. Not right away at least. If I'm trading away Brian Dozier or Ervin Santana I'm assuming the team has no shot at competing in 2017 or '18. I'm not ready to do that out of the gate. Pretty boring, I know. While there wouldn't be any ground breaking moves, it's the way the roster gets filled out where things get interesting. Starting Lineup C-Geovany Soto $2.25M 1B-Joe Mauer (vs. RHP) $23M 2B-Brian Dozier $6M 3B-Jorge Polanco $0.5M SS-Eduardo Escobar $2.9M LF-Eddie Rosario $0.5M CF-Byron Buxton $0.5M RF-Max Kepler $0.5M DH-Miguel Sano $0.5M Bench Kennys Vargas (starting 1B vs. LHP) $0.5M John Ryan Murphy $0.5M Robbie Grossman $0.5M Ruben Tejada $2.25M Rotation Ervin Santana $13.5M Hector Santiago $8.6M Kyle Gibson $3.5M Jose Berrios $0.5M Phil Hughes $13.2M Bullpen Tyler Duffey $0.5M Trevor May $0.5M J.T. Chargios $0.5M Taylor Rogers $0.5M Ryan Pressly $1.1M Glen Perkins $6.5M Michael Tonkin $0.5M Adding in the $2.75M owed to Byungho Park, that's an Opening Day payroll of $92.55 million. Missing from this team is Danny Santana, who at this point I'd expect to clear waivers. There are a lot of familiar faces in this bunch, but in slightly different places. Though I've committed positions to each guy in the starting lineup, it's open for a lot of flexibility. What the signing of Tejada does is provide enough infield depth so you don't have to play Polanco at short or Sano at third. In the big picture, I could see Engelb Vielma being ready to be a glove-first MLB shortstop by midseason 2017 with Nick Gordon probably around a year behind him. So I'm not interested in trying to make Polanco stick at shortstop. Putting Polanco at third may seem odd, but that is a weak position in the minors for the Twins. Unlike shortstop, it's difficult to look at the current crop of talent and see multiple options coming up the pipeline any time within the next year or two. No, Polanco did not look good at third base in a short sample last season, but I think his skills translate better there than shortstop and with a spring training learning the position maybe we see better results. If he sticks, you have a legit long-term solution at third, so no need to try to make Sano work there. Just let him mash at DH. Out in the bullpen, I'd combat any disappointment Duffey or May would have about not cracking the rotation by letting them duke it out for the closer role in spring training. If it were totally up to me, I'd probably have May in the rotation and instead give Hughes the opportunity to pitch at the back end of the bullpen. He's done it before. But with his contract, I doubt that if he's healthy he'll be doing anything but starting. We'll say that's an ownership decision, out of my hands. Speaking of health, there are always extra days off in April, so even if Hughes and/or Perkins aren't back to 100 percent, you wouldn't have to lean on either of them early on. If you didn't feel confident even easing them in and they start the year on the DL, Adalberto Mejia becomes the fifth starter and either Ryan O'Rourke or Buddy Boshers joins the pen. If we get to July and somehow this team is over .500, I'd aim to make major improvements to the bullpen and try to add another starting pitcher. You wouldn't want to sell off the farm, but operating under $100 million with a cost controlled core, this team would be well placed to take on salary. Sometimes that means you don't need to give up your top prospects. If we get to July and this team is below .500, we're open for business. Dozier and Santana are traded for sure, along with any other vets with trade value. You maybe even listen on a young guy or two. And the returns I'd seek wouldn't be guys on the cusp of the major leagues, I'd aim for lower-level prospects who would be more likely to make an impact in 2018 or 2019. What do you think? Should I tweet this out to Thad Levine? Click here to view the article
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Now before I get into the moves, let's figure out what the goal should be. Even with the budget dropping, I'd still want to present a team that could have a conceivable chance at contending, at least if everything went right. The new front office is going to create some positive buzz, and you wouldn't want to lose that by staging a massive fire sale. There's also the issue of building up the organization. Everything's about to change, and I'd prefer Derek Falvey and Thad Levine be able to devote as much time as needed getting the details right on how the org is structured and who else is hired even more so than building up the 2017 roster. I'd be fine with a quiet offseason if it meant amazing people were being hired into the front office, scouting department, etc. Okay, on to arbitration. These would be mainly budget cuts, but I would non-tender Trevor Plouffe and Brandon Kintzler. Both players could provide value to this year's team, but I'm not sure if either could surpass even their projected arbitration salaries on the open market. After watching his career for so long, it will be tough to watch Plouffe go, but it's time. I like Kintzler, but it's easy to find scrap heap relievers willing to sign minor league deals. I was tempted to let Hector Santiago go to open up some payroll, but with starting pitching being the team's biggest need I wouldn't want to downgrade the rotation any more than it already is. On top of that, I still think Santiago is a respectable pitcher. Yes, he'll walk his fare share of guys and give up homers, but he has a 103 ERA+ over six years. I think Santiago was tinkering with things when he first came to Minnesota (8.17 ERA in Aug.), but then went back to his usual formula at the end of the year (3.75 ERA in Sept./Oct.). Even with non-tendering Plouffe and Kintzler there's not a lot of room left in the budget for free agents. I'd like to leave the door open for John Ryan Murphy, Mitch Garver or Stuart Turner to establish themselves but it's obvious the Twins need a major league catcher. I think Geovany Soto represents the best buying opportunity in terms of bargain basement backstops in this year's free agent class. Soto, who turns 34 in January, signed a one-year, $2.8 million deal with the Angels last offseason and only played 28 games. Let's say we sign him for one-year, $2.25 million. Staying on the field has been a huge issue for Soto the last four seasons, but when healthy he's played well. Over those last four years, Soto has only 567 plate appearances, but his .431 slugging percentage is actually ahead of top free agent catchers Wilson Ramos (.429) and Matt Wieters (.422) over that same span. His defense is probably average at best, but that would still be an upgrade over Kurt Suzuki. An added bonus is Soto is Puerto Rican. To me, probably the most important thing of 2017 is the development of Jose Berrios. I think it could be extremely helpful to find a veteran to guide him as a player. It would be even better if that person could also relate to him personally and help him blossom into the beast we all believe he can become. I'd also like to see a legit major league shortstop added, but the market is extremely thin. Ruben Tejada signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal last offseason, and while he barely played it wouldn't surprise me that due to the thin market and his age (he's only 27) he gets a decent raise. We'll also put him down for one-year, $2.25 million. You don't get much from the bat, but he's been productive against lefties (.362 career OBP), is a decent defender at shortstop and can play second and third as well. And that's it. Those are the only major league contracts, at least. I'd bring in a few guys, particularly pitchers, on minor league deals and see what happens in spring training. I'd be particularly interested in a reunion with veteran Sean Burnett, who spent the bulk of last year pitching to a 2.15 ERA with Rochester. So there's gotta be a big trade, right? Nope, sorry. Not right away at least. If I'm trading away Brian Dozier or Ervin Santana I'm assuming the team has no shot at competing in 2017 or '18. I'm not ready to do that out of the gate. Pretty boring, I know. While there wouldn't be any ground breaking moves, it's the way the roster gets filled out where things get interesting. Starting Lineup C-Geovany Soto $2.25M 1B-Joe Mauer (vs. RHP) $23M 2B-Brian Dozier $6M 3B-Jorge Polanco $0.5M SS-Eduardo Escobar $2.9M LF-Eddie Rosario $0.5M CF-Byron Buxton $0.5M RF-Max Kepler $0.5M DH-Miguel Sano $0.5M Bench Kennys Vargas (starting 1B vs. LHP) $0.5M John Ryan Murphy $0.5M Robbie Grossman $0.5M Ruben Tejada $2.25M Rotation Ervin Santana $13.5M Hector Santiago $8.6M Kyle Gibson $3.5M Jose Berrios $0.5M Phil Hughes $13.2M Bullpen Tyler Duffey $0.5M Trevor May $0.5M J.T. Chargios $0.5M Taylor Rogers $0.5M Ryan Pressly $1.1M Glen Perkins $6.5M Michael Tonkin $0.5M Adding in the $2.75M owed to Byungho Park, that's an Opening Day payroll of $92.55 million. Missing from this team is Danny Santana, who at this point I'd expect to clear waivers. There are a lot of familiar faces in this bunch, but in slightly different places. Though I've committed positions to each guy in the starting lineup, it's open for a lot of flexibility. What the signing of Tejada does is provide enough infield depth so you don't have to play Polanco at short or Sano at third. In the big picture, I could see Engelb Vielma being ready to be a glove-first MLB shortstop by midseason 2017 with Nick Gordon probably around a year behind him. So I'm not interested in trying to make Polanco stick at shortstop. Putting Polanco at third may seem odd, but that is a weak position in the minors for the Twins. Unlike shortstop, it's difficult to look at the current crop of talent and see multiple options coming up the pipeline any time within the next year or two. No, Polanco did not look good at third base in a short sample last season, but I think his skills translate better there than shortstop and with a spring training learning the position maybe we see better results. If he sticks, you have a legit long-term solution at third, so no need to try to make Sano work there. Just let him mash at DH. Out in the bullpen, I'd combat any disappointment Duffey or May would have about not cracking the rotation by letting them duke it out for the closer role in spring training. If it were totally up to me, I'd probably have May in the rotation and instead give Hughes the opportunity to pitch at the back end of the bullpen. He's done it before. But with his contract, I doubt that if he's healthy he'll be doing anything but starting. We'll say that's an ownership decision, out of my hands. Speaking of health, there are always extra days off in April, so even if Hughes and/or Perkins aren't back to 100 percent, you wouldn't have to lean on either of them early on. If you didn't feel confident even easing them in and they start the year on the DL, Adalberto Mejia becomes the fifth starter and either Ryan O'Rourke or Buddy Boshers joins the pen. If we get to July and somehow this team is over .500, I'd aim to make major improvements to the bullpen and try to add another starting pitcher. You wouldn't want to sell off the farm, but operating under $100 million with a cost controlled core, this team would be well placed to take on salary. Sometimes that means you don't need to give up your top prospects. If we get to July and this team is below .500, we're open for business. Dozier and Santana are traded for sure, along with any other vets with trade value. You maybe even listen on a young guy or two. And the returns I'd seek wouldn't be guys on the cusp of the major leagues, I'd aim for lower-level prospects who would be more likely to make an impact in 2018 or 2019. What do you think? Should I tweet this out to Thad Levine?
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You're right, had a feeling I missed something. Tyner was the DH 12 times in 2006 and was second in DH appearances in '07 with 26, which was only 10 away from the team leader, Jason Kubel. Of course, that was under Gardy. Here are some interesting guys Molitor has used at DH the past two seasons: Eduardo Nunez (22 total), Eduardo Escobar (10 total), Danny Santana (9 total), Shane Robinson (5), Kurt Suzuki (4) and Juan Centeno, Logan Schafer and Chris Herrmann all had one appearance as a DH.
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Big Papi made plenty of money in his career, but I was pretty surprised to look back as see the biggest financial commitment the Red Sox ever had to make him was a 4-year, $52 million extension that had another club option year.
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You have to go back to 2011 to the last time the Orioles (Vlad Guerrero) and Rays (Johnny Damon) had a 100-game DH, and 2010 for the Blue Jays (Adam Lind) and Indians (Travis Hafner). The White Sox have had their share of veteran sluggers, but the last time they had a player DH in 100 games was 2008 (Jim Thome, who also reached 99 games at DH in '09). That would be the longest drought without an "everyday" DH, except for the fact the Twins have them beat ... by a decade. The last Twins player to DH 100 games? Paul Molitor in 1998 (he also accomplished the feat in '97 & '96). The last time the Twins even had a guy DH in half their games was in 2009 (Jason Kubel, 82). Things were especially unstable at DH last season. Miguel Sano and Byungho Park shared the team lead in appearances at DH with just 36. Joe Mauer (34), Robbie Grossman (19) and Kennys Vargas (13) also had at least 10 games at DH. The only other teams to fail to have a player reach even 60 games at DH were the Yankees (led by A-Rod's 57 games) and A's (led by 53 games at DH for Khris Davis). But it's not like that was all by design. Of course, if Park continued his hot start Paul Molitor would have gladly penciled him in at DH 100-plus times last season. Park had a .900 OPS through his first month and a half in the big leagues before falling apart. And maybe Terry Ryan would never have brought in Park if the team didn't feel it was too early to make 23-year-old Sano an everyday DH. To be fair, that was an entirely sensible approach to take (deciding to put him in right field is another discussion). Even the greatest designated hitters of all-time spent many of their younger years in the field. Any discussion about great designated hitters has to start with David Ortiz, right? Despite being in his mid-20s, the Twins were primarily DHing Ortiz in his last three years in Minnesota, but he played first base in 79 games over his first two seasons in Boston. Once he turned 29, Ortiz never played in more than 10 games in the field in a season. Chili Davis mostly played outfield prior to coming to Minnesota in 1991 and switching to DH as a 31-year-old. Jim Thome was a third baseman through age 25 and didn't switch to DH until joining the White Sox at age 35. Paul Molitor played all over the diamond before becoming a primary DH at age 35. Edgar Martinez primarily played third base until he was 32. Harold Baines was an outfielder before he switched to DH in his age 28 season. Frank Thomas was one of the biggest dudes to play the game, but even he played more first base until he was 30. One last bit of DH info fun, since the DH was instituted in 1973 the Twins have had a 100-game DH 12 times. That's the exact number of seasons David Ortiz played at least 100 games as a DH. Here is the list of Twins' leader in DH games for each season (over 100 games in bold): 16: Miguel Sano/Byungho Park 36 15: Miguel Sano 69 14: Kennys Vargas 40 13: Ryan Doumit 49 12: Ryan Doumit 48 11: Jim Thome 59 10: Jim Thome 79 09: Jason Kubel 82 08: Jason Kubel 85 07: Jason Kubel 36 06: Rondell White 54 05: Matt LeCroy 63 04: Jose Offerman 39 03: Matt LeCroy 63 02: David Ortiz 95 01: David Ortiz 80 00: David Ortiz 88 99: Marty Cordova 85 98: Paul Molitor 115 97: Paul Molitor 122 96: Paul Molitor 143 95: Pedro Munoz 77 94: Dave Winfield 76 93: Dave Winfield 105 92: Chili Davis 125 91: Chili Davis 150 90: Gene Larkin 43 89: Jim Dwyer 73 88: Gene Larkin 86 87: Roy Smalley 73 86: Roy Smalley 114 85: Roy Smalley 56 84: Randy Bush 88 83: Randy Bush 104 82: Randy Johnson 66 81: Glenn Adams 62 80: Jose Morales 85 79: Jose Morales 77 78: Glenn Adams 100 77: Craig Kusick 85 76: Craig Kusick 79 75: Tony Oliva 120 74: Tony Oliva 112 73: Tony Oliva 142
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Article: Three-Bagger: Heat, Holland & Handbook
Tom Froemming replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Looks like Holland's option is $11 million. So compared to Hector Santiago he's more expensive, older and has a worse career ERA+. Pitching staff needs to improve, but I'm not so sure Holland's the guy I'd be after. -
Soooo ... thinking I should probably write something about Miguel Sano this week, since that's all anybody seems to want to talk about
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Agreed. I would expect any outside evaluator would take one look at Mauer and say he's a platoon guy now. He hit .224/.291/.319 against lefties last season. You cannot live with that at 1B. Mauer's probably a lock to be on the roster all year, but that doesn't mean he has to play everyday. He can be valuable even if only against RHP (.272/.383/.410 last year) and maybe the extra rest will keep him stay fresh.
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It seems to me the quickest way to solve the most issues would be to add a reliable major league shortstop. Maybe you sign Erick Aybar or trade for a guy like Zack Cozart or Adeiny Hechavarria. That's not going to make a lot of waves or help the offense, but it would go a long way to solidifying the defense. Sure, you'd then have the "problem" of what to do with Polanco. I see him as very similar to Jose Ramirez. He's an MLB 2B, he can kinda play SS but you don't really want him there. With Dozier blocking him, he's going to have to stick at either 3B or LF. But that one move would not only solve SS, but also give you enough 3B options (Polanco/Escobar) to not only non-tender Plouffe but also do it without having to totally commit to Sano as the everyday 3B. Just my two cents.
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These moves definitely look better or worse based on team performance. But a couple things to remember about Schwarber are that he played some OF in college, so it isn't a completely new position for him, and it's not like using him out there has worked out for the Cubs. Plus, if they had a DH I'm pretty sure they'd just stick him there and let him rake.
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Among the challenges that puzzled the 2016 Twins was putting the optimal defensive lineup on the field. Derek Falvey and company likely will be facing similar challenges next season. Is there any reason to be confident those issues will be resolved in 2017? Based on how we've seen the Cleveland Indians lineup evolve the past few seasons, I think so. The Twins ranked 12th in baseball in home runs, 13th in OPS, scored the 16th most runs. So while there's always room for improvement, hitting is far from the team's biggest concern. The defense, on the other hand, desperately needs to improve after the Twins ranked 29th in Defensive Runs Above Average. Improving the team may not require a complete overhaul, but rather just shifting a few pieces.But Twins fans know all too well that can be a dangerous game to play. Miguel Sano to the outfield was a disaster. Luckily, Falvey knows how dangerous that can be, as well. Falvey's first-hand experience with Carlos Santana should be particularly valuable in concern to trying to resolve some of the Twins' issues. For the first four years of his career, Santana was primarily a catcher. Then Cleveland asked him to do some strange things in 2014, having him learn third base in spring training while still catching sparingly. Santana got off to a terrible start and suffered a concussion in June. That led Cleveland to use Santana strictly as a 1B/DH from there forward. It also took a few seasons for Cleveland to find defensive homes for Jose Ramirez and Lonnie Chisenhall. Both players have filled unexpected needs this season. Had Juan Uribe panned out at third base and Michael Brantley been healthy who knows what would have happened with Ramirez and Chisenhall. But even when those two appeared to just be spare parts, Cleveland wisely held on to both of them. It was reported by La Velle E. Neal III this week Texas Assistant General Manager Thad Levine was expected to be the Twins next GM. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News confirmed that report. While nothing will be made official until after the World Series, there hasn't been a shred of news from either team denying those reports. The Rangers also have an encouraging recent track record of finding creative ways to put together a lineup. They took a big gamble on Ian Desmond last offseason, converting him from shortstop to outfield, and were rewarded with a solid season. They also had to solve the puzzle of how to use Jurickson Profar. He ended up playing 10 or more games at each of 3B, 2B, 1B, LF and SS. When you win your division, like Cleveland and Texas did, all those moves look really smart and inventive. One could argue that each of those decisions were made with the same intention as most of the Twins' tinkering. But the difference in the results is undeniable. Of course, Falvey and Levine aren't going to try to do the exact same things they did with their previous organizations. They're going to be flexible based on the team's personnel. But how might those lessons learned be applied to the Twins? In the case of Santana, Cleveland opted to put their best hitter in the best possible position to succeed, regardless of other positional needs. Then they filled holes with secondary players like Ramirez and Chisenhall. What might that look like on the Twins? Putting Miguel Sano at DH full-time and letting the other chips fall where they may. That may make Kennys Vargas and Byungho Park appear to be redundant, but you never know. Desmond was a case of the Rangers eyeing a player who they believed could be a difference maker, but they didn't have an obvious defensive position to plug him into. What might that look like on the Twins? Well, we're not sure if Jorge Polanco can be a big league shortstop, but his bat looks legit. If Brian Dozier sticks around and Falvey/Levine don't trust Polanco at short everyday, they may have to get creative to keep his bat in the lineup. Could Polanco be a Plan B in left field if Eddie Rosario can't improve? Seems as plausible as Ian Desmond signing as a center fielder a year ago at this time: Crazy. That's just me spit-balling a few ideas that could be considered. Without knowing how the roster will shake out it's tough to even speculate what kinds of changes may be bandied about. But with new evaluators coming in, new ideas will surely be presented and I'm sure no stone will be left unturned. After so many years of the Twins having such a predictable approach under Terry Ryan, it's anyone's guess the direction the new front office may take. It should be a fascinating offseason. Click here to view the article
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But Twins fans know all too well that can be a dangerous game to play. Miguel Sano to the outfield was a disaster. Luckily, Falvey knows how dangerous that can be, as well. Falvey's first-hand experience with Carlos Santana should be particularly valuable in concern to trying to resolve some of the Twins' issues. For the first four years of his career, Santana was primarily a catcher. Then Cleveland asked him to do some strange things in 2014, having him learn third base in spring training while still catching sparingly. Santana got off to a terrible start and suffered a concussion in June. That led Cleveland to use Santana strictly as a 1B/DH from there forward. It also took a few seasons for Cleveland to find defensive homes for Jose Ramirez and Lonnie Chisenhall. Both players have filled unexpected needs this season. Had Juan Uribe panned out at third base and Michael Brantley been healthy who knows what would have happened with Ramirez and Chisenhall. But even when those two appeared to just be spare parts, Cleveland wisely held on to both of them. It was reported by La Velle E. Neal III this week Texas Assistant General Manager Thad Levine was expected to be the Twins next GM. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News confirmed that report. While nothing will be made official until after the World Series, there hasn't been a shred of news from either team denying those reports. The Rangers also have an encouraging recent track record of finding creative ways to put together a lineup. They took a big gamble on Ian Desmond last offseason, converting him from shortstop to outfield, and were rewarded with a solid season. They also had to solve the puzzle of how to use Jurickson Profar. He ended up playing 10 or more games at each of 3B, 2B, 1B, LF and SS. When you win your division, like Cleveland and Texas did, all those moves look really smart and inventive. One could argue that each of those decisions were made with the same intention as most of the Twins' tinkering. But the difference in the results is undeniable. Of course, Falvey and Levine aren't going to try to do the exact same things they did with their previous organizations. They're going to be flexible based on the team's personnel. But how might those lessons learned be applied to the Twins? In the case of Santana, Cleveland opted to put their best hitter in the best possible position to succeed, regardless of other positional needs. Then they filled holes with secondary players like Ramirez and Chisenhall. What might that look like on the Twins? Putting Miguel Sano at DH full-time and letting the other chips fall where they may. That may make Kennys Vargas and Byungho Park appear to be redundant, but you never know. Desmond was a case of the Rangers eyeing a player who they believed could be a difference maker, but they didn't have an obvious defensive position to plug him into. What might that look like on the Twins? Well, we're not sure if Jorge Polanco can be a big league shortstop, but his bat looks legit. If Brian Dozier sticks around and Falvey/Levine don't trust Polanco at short everyday, they may have to get creative to keep his bat in the lineup. Could Polanco be a Plan B in left field if Eddie Rosario can't improve? Seems as plausible as Ian Desmond signing as a center fielder a year ago at this time: Crazy. That's just me spit-balling a few ideas that could be considered. Without knowing how the roster will shake out it's tough to even speculate what kinds of changes may be bandied about. But with new evaluators coming in, new ideas will surely be presented and I'm sure no stone will be left unturned. After so many years of the Twins having such a predictable approach under Terry Ryan, it's anyone's guess the direction the new front office may take. It should be a fascinating offseason.
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Article: Big Splash? More Like Big Slash
Tom Froemming replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Great stuff, thanks for sharing. It surprises me KC is so high, although I'm sure coming off the World Series victory had a lot to do with that. -
Article: Big Splash? More Like Big Slash
Tom Froemming posted a topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Cleveland Indians are in the World Series, marking the third-straight season and fourth out of the last five years the American League Champion has come from the Central. So the Twins are doomed to toil in last place in this juggernaut division, right? Maybe not. Yes, things are looking up in Believeland, but the rest of the division appears to be very much up in the air. And if you read some of the season review/offseason preview content, there are a lot of things to like if you're a Twins fan.After back-to-back World Series appearances culminating with a title, the Royals appeared poised for an extended stay atop the division. After all, they had very few changes to their championship roster. But Kansas City finished right at .500 this season, and it sounds like general manager Dayton Moore will be very limited financially. Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star took a look at the organization's future in an excellent piece. In that article, Mellinger reports the Royals are likely to lower their payroll from last season. He speculates that accomplishing that task would require not only declining the options on both Edinson Volquez and Kendrys Morales, but the team would also have to trade someone like Wade Davis. Could Detroit also be positioned to trade away established players? The Tigers actually finished second in the division, bouncing back from a last-place finish the year prior to fall just 2.5 games out of the playoffs. Sounds like a team on the rise, right? Not so much when you listen to quotes from general manager Al Avila. "We certainly want to stay competitive," Avila told MLB.com reporter Jason Beck. "We certainly want to be able to try to get back in the playoffs. But at the same time, this organization has been working way above its means for many, many years." It's not like Miguel Cabrera or Justin Verlander are going anywhere, but it also doesn't sound likely the Tigers will be making their annual big splash either. If anything, it sounds like they'll be trying to shed payroll. The White Sox made some splashy moves of their own last offseason and posted a surprising 17-8 record in April. They collapsed from there, finishing with 78 wins. It was an odd season that started with Adam LaRoche's sudden retirement, had Chris Sale cutting up throwback jerseys somewhere in the middle and has ended with manager Robin Ventura stepping down after five seasons. ESPN's Buster Olney said the handling of Ventura's final days, "provided perfect insight into the organization's dysfunction and why the team is doomed to mediocrity for years to come unless something changes in the way it operates." And quotes from their GM aren't exactly going to get Sox fans rushing out to renew their season tickets. “Everyone in that front office is looking for the best path to get us on an extended period of success even if that involves a short-term step-back,” Rick Hahn toldDaryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun Times. If you ask me, that sounds like GM speak for "we're going to rebuild." Hahn also said "by the time we make our first or second transaction, publicly it will be fairly clear as to our direction." Or, GM speak for "we're gonna be super obvious about rebuilding." Swinging back to Cleveland, yes, they will have most of their core returning next season. All except their secret weapon ... Derek Falvey (insert evil laugh). But seriously, with their pitching staff back healthy (presumably), Cleveland will likely be the favorite to repeat as division champs. Good teams never have problems attracting players, but don't expect Cleveland to blow the bank on free agent additions. Revenue has been tough to come by, Cleveland ranked 28th in attendance this season and the last time the they were even inside the top 20 in attendance was 2002. Their bottom line will get a nice boost from all these postseason games, but it's not like they'll be singing any superstars. As for the Twins, we don't have any doom and gloom quotes from our GM, no sir. Then again, we don't have one of those yet. And our President of Baseball Operations is working for another team at the moment. But when you're coming off the worst season in team history, sometimes no news is good news. Click here to view the article -
After back-to-back World Series appearances culminating with a title, the Royals appeared poised for an extended stay atop the division. After all, they had very few changes to their championship roster. But Kansas City finished right at .500 this season, and it sounds like general manager Dayton Moore will be very limited financially. Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star took a look at the organization's future in an excellent piece. In that article, Mellinger reports the Royals are likely to lower their payroll from last season. He speculates that accomplishing that task would require not only declining the options on both Edinson Volquez and Kendrys Morales, but the team would also have to trade someone like Wade Davis. Could Detroit also be positioned to trade away established players? The Tigers actually finished second in the division, bouncing back from a last-place finish the year prior to fall just 2.5 games out of the playoffs. Sounds like a team on the rise, right? Not so much when you listen to quotes from general manager Al Avila. "We certainly want to stay competitive," Avila told MLB.com reporter Jason Beck. "We certainly want to be able to try to get back in the playoffs. But at the same time, this organization has been working way above its means for many, many years." It's not like Miguel Cabrera or Justin Verlander are going anywhere, but it also doesn't sound likely the Tigers will be making their annual big splash either. If anything, it sounds like they'll be trying to shed payroll. The White Sox made some splashy moves of their own last offseason and posted a surprising 17-8 record in April. They collapsed from there, finishing with 78 wins. It was an odd season that started with Adam LaRoche's sudden retirement, had Chris Sale cutting up throwback jerseys somewhere in the middle and has ended with manager Robin Ventura stepping down after five seasons. ESPN's Buster Olney said the handling of Ventura's final days, "provided perfect insight into the organization's dysfunction and why the team is doomed to mediocrity for years to come unless something changes in the way it operates." And quotes from their GM aren't exactly going to get Sox fans rushing out to renew their season tickets. “Everyone in that front office is looking for the best path to get us on an extended period of success even if that involves a short-term step-back,” Rick Hahn told Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun Times. If you ask me, that sounds like GM speak for "we're going to rebuild." Hahn also said "by the time we make our first or second transaction, publicly it will be fairly clear as to our direction." Or, GM speak for "we're gonna be super obvious about rebuilding." Swinging back to Cleveland, yes, they will have most of their core returning next season. All except their secret weapon ... Derek Falvey (insert evil laugh). But seriously, with their pitching staff back healthy (presumably), Cleveland will likely be the favorite to repeat as division champs. Good teams never have problems attracting players, but don't expect Cleveland to blow the bank on free agent additions. Revenue has been tough to come by, Cleveland ranked 28th in attendance this season and the last time the they were even inside the top 20 in attendance was 2002. Their bottom line will get a nice boost from all these postseason games, but it's not like they'll be singing any superstars. As for the Twins, we don't have any doom and gloom quotes from our GM, no sir. Then again, we don't have one of those yet. And our President of Baseball Operations is working for another team at the moment. But when you're coming off the worst season in team history, sometimes no news is good news.
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The 2016 season mercifully came to an end, and Twins fans hope to someday be rewarded for suffering through the worst season in team history. Because in baseball, sometimes in the long run it pays to lose. Thanks to their impressive ability to rack up losses, the Twins "won" the first overall pick in the 2017 Draft. Yes, it will be several years before we'll see the team's top pick play at Target Field, but that doesn't change how exciting it is that the team will have the opportunity to add a franchise-changing talent to the organization.Who the Twins may take with the first selection will probably be speculated about right down to draft day. Last week, Jeremy Nygaard did a great job of outlining a handful of players the Twins are likely looking into as potential No. 1 picks. Draft day (June 12, 2017) is still a long way away, but it appears at the moment that Hunter Greene has broken out as the guy with the highest ceiling in the class. The question is should that be what the Twins target, or should they look for more certainty and lower risk? If the Twins are searching for a player to make a more immediate impact, they'll likely pass on Greene, who will be just 17-years-old on draft day. A standout pitcher and shortstop for Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks, Calif, Greene can flirt with 100 mph on the mound and has a home run derby crown to his credit, hitting moonshots out of Wrigley Field at the Perfect Game All-American Classic. And he appears to be a bright kid, as he was recently boasting about getting a 31 (out of a possible 36) on the ACT. For more on Greene's backstory, look no further than Hudson Belisky of Baseball America's excellent and thorough profile. Time will tell if he can maintain the 1-1 buzz, but below are quotes from some credible sources with first-hand knowledge of Greene. Each of these was pulled from articles with more information on Greene and some have reports on other players in the mix to be the No. 1 overall pick, so I would encourage you to check them out. Also, with Greene being such a high-profile player already, there's tons of video of him on YouTube to drool over. "Greene was 96-98 mph in his inning of work with a super loose arm and little effort. His delivery is too quick, so while he stays online, and threw strikes on Saturday, to remain a starter he's probably going to have to slow it down and get a consistent rhythm. But this kind of arm -- present plus velocity without substantial effort -- is rare." -Keith Law, ESPN.com, on Greene's performance at the Under Armor All-American Game [link] "Likely at the top of most boards right now. A shortstop and a pitcher, there is some debate over where he has more potential. Keep in mind a high school right-handed pitcher has never been taken No. 1 overall." -Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com [link] "His fastball is absolutely electric, sitting in the mid-90s and touching as high as 98 with good extension and movement that plays in the zone. I think Greene’s heater would be effective in the big leagues right now and, though the rest of his repertoire is middling, his body and athleticism make the entire package worthy of top-of-the-draft consideration." -Eric Longenhagen, Fangraphs [link] "Greene’s delivery starts with an athletic, well-coordinated leg lift. He folds his front leg and brings his knee to the height of his sternum, and then his hands break just as his leg comes down and his lower half begins to generate torque. He has an easy arm action, with a slight wrap in the back and explosive arm speed as he fires through his three-quarters slot. Greene lands online and spins off his front toes as his back side comes through. He gets his torso extended over his front side, giving him additional extension towards home plate. His arm decelerates well, finishing across his body without recoil or violence, and his head stays still throughout the process." -Hudson Belinksy, Baseball America [link] "Greene has an athletic-yet-sturdy build at 6-foot-3, 195 pounds to go along with his emerging three-pitch repertoire and clean delivery. He ran his fastball up to 98 mph more than once this summer, settling into the mid-90s in short stints. His low-80s slider isn’t consistent yet but flashes plus potential, and he’s also shown an advanced change-up." -Jesse Burkhart, Today's Knuckleball [link] "He has shown two potential plus pitches and another bonus is that he will still be 17 on draft day. On upside alone, there is not a better player in this class." -Jeff Ellis, Scout.com [link] "He sat at 94-96 mph with his fastball with considerable movement and touched 98. His slider was inconsistent at best during the Under Armour All-American Game the previous month, but it flashed plus here, and he was able to locate the pitch for strikes for the most part. He also showed a change in the mid-80s that he buried down with good arm speed, and although he didn't have great feel for it, you can see the makings of a quality third offering." -Christopher Crawford, ESPN.com, on Greene's performance at the Area Code Games [link] Of course, Greene's status as a potential top pick isn't written in stone. It's more like written in sand at high tide. There's another dozen or so players who have the opportunity between now and the draft to establish themselves as the top pick between now and June. Whoever ends up with that honor will hopefully one day help Twins fans make this 103-loss season worth all the suffering. Click here to view the article
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