Tom Froemming

You did a great job outlining the odd usage of Tonkin a month ago in your Planning To Fail article. Right or wrong, after re-reading Seth's Penciling A 2017 Bullpen piece I'm pretty confident Tonkin doesn't make next year's team out of Spring Training. Along with all the current in-house options, I'm sure the new front office will bring in at least a couple more guys who'll compete for spots in the pen. Hopefully if Tonkin is DFA'd he goes unclaimed and can go back to Rochester and work on some things.

One last Michael Tonkin fun fact: Out of the 140 qualified relievers heading into today, only 16 have both a better K/9 and a better BB/9 than Tonkin. Of those 16 guys, half have an ERA under 2.00 and only one has an ERA over 4.00 (Justin Wilson of Detroit at 4.28).

This spring, Michael Tonkin essentially had a golden ticket. Being out of options, the Twins had to either break camp with Tonkin on the 25-man roster or lose him to waivers. Being young, cheap and having been effective in brief cameos with the Twins the prior three seasons, it was an easy choice. Tonkin has stuck on the big club all year, but one has to wonder how much longer he'll remain in the organization. The 6-foot-7 righty didn't exactly earn his way onto the Opening Day roster, as he gave up seven earned runs in eight innings pitched in the Grapefruit League, and he hasn't done much to impress since. It's not likely that Tonkin would have stuck on the major league roster the entire season if he still had an option year to burn. After all, this is a guy the club optioned to Rochester ten different times over the last three seasons. But is there any reason to be optimistic about Tonkin's future?On the down side, Tonkin has a 5.17 ERA and has been unusable against lefties, as they are hitting .292/.380/.642 off him going into Thursday's game (Victor Martinez added a three-run homer to Tonkin's lefty woes).You'd think a changeup guru would help Tonkin develop that pitch to better neutralize southpaws (looking at you, Neil Allen). Tonkin can rack up strikeouts, but bad things happen when he allows contact. This season he's inducing fewer grounders (48.8% coming into 2016 vs. 34% this season), giving up more line drives (18.9% vs. 26.4%) and more of his fly balls are leaving the park (11.3 HR/FB vs. 15.4). If you want to shut the book on Tonkin based just on those numbers, I can't blame you. But, looking deeper into the numbers and taking into account how he's been used, there may be some reason for hope. On the plus side, Tonkin is improving in some crucial areas. He's boosted his strikeout rate (7.55 entering the season to 9.91 in 2016) while lowering his walk rate (3.02 vs. 2.87). Also, both his contact percentage (76.3) and swinging strike rate (11.1) are career highs by a large margin. One thing that hasn't been in Tonkin's favor that's out of his control is the way he's been used. He's recorded at least four outs in 23 appearances and pitched two full innings or more nine times. He's appeared in every inning but the first and his 1,233 pitches thrown ranks 7th among 140 qualified relievers. He's Paul Molitor's mop-up man, and the role has not suited him well. Through his first 25 pitches of an outing, Tonkin has limited opponents to a .786 OPS, but once he has eclipsed the 25-pitch mark, it spikes to a 1.128 OPS. He's also giving up a .957 OPS when pitching in games where there is at least a four-run margin (which was the case when he allowed the V-Mart homer on Thursday afternoon). Obviously, one way to get out of that mop-up role would be to perform well enough that you get promoted to late-inning work, but Tonkin hasn't inspired confidence to rationalize that kind of jump. But he continues to be used in a role that doesn't appear to suit him and, surprise, he continues to underperform. It's not too different from the lose-lose situation Trevor May has been in the last season and a half. With a new set of evaluators set to take over the front office, maybe Tonkin's role will be adjusted in 2017. Or maybe he'll be jettisoned off the roster and be evaluated in an entirely new organization. Things haven't gone the way I'm sure Michael Tonkin had hoped in 2016, but I wouldn't be surprised with a new, more specialized role and a different pitch mix he could find success next season. Click here to view the article

FWIW Wiel was also a monster postseason. In five games we went 7-for-17 with five walks. And he's not just some hulking slugger, either. Including the playoffs, he hit 10 triples and was 7-for-8 in stolen base attempts. The guy is really athletic.

New for 2017: Plenty of leg room and no lines!

Thanks for the comment, you got my wheels turning on this some more. I wondered if it was maybe more realistic to hope the Twins can bounce back since they had a winning season the year prior to losing 100 (assuming that happens this year). I took a look, and only one team in the stretch we're looking at went from winners, to 100 losses and back to winners again. Mariners 2007: 88 W 2008: 101 L 2009: 85 W Of course, Seattle then lost 101 again in 2010. So they were all over the place. There were three other teams to lose 100 after posting a winning record the year prior, but they all failed to bounce back. Marlins 1997: 92 W 1998: 108 L 1999: 98 L Royals 2003: 83 W 2004: 104 L 2005: 106 L D-Backs 2003: 84 W 2004: 111 L 2005: 85 L So you are correct, just getting back to .500 would be a pretty impressive accomplishment.

Watching a team slump its way through a summer and flirt with 100 losses is like watching a quicksand scene. It's a slow, gruelling situation to watch and every move that's made seems to make the character sink deeper and deeper. Quicksand became a cliche in action/adventure movies of the 50s and 60s, and it's easy to see why. Quicksand adds a lot of potential for suspense and drama, making the viewer feel helpless. You wish there was a way you could jump through the screen and offer a helping hand to the doomed hero or damsel in distress.But unlike in the movies, watching a baseball team seemingly trapped in quicksand doesn't last a few scenes. It can often stretch over several years. Of course, there is a chance the Twins avoid 100 losses. As of Thursday evening the team has 92 losses with 15 games remaining. And 100 is sort of an arbitrary number, but there is certainly a stigma against reaching triple-digit losses. It's a rare feat to accomplish, if you can call it that, and really sticks out in the standings. It doesn't happen every season, and the Twins have only hit the century mark in losses once, losing 102 in 1982. Here's a rundown of every 100-loss team since the strike: 15: None 14: None 13: Astros 111, Marlins 100 12: Astros 107, Cubs 101 11: Astros 106 10: Pirates 105, Mariners 101 09: Nationals 103 08: Nationals 102, Mariners 101 07: None 06: Rays 101, Royals 100 05: Royals 106 04: Diamondbacks 111, Royals 104 03: Tigers 119 02: Tigers 106, Rays 106, Brewers 106, Royals 100 01: Pirates 100, Rays 100 00: None 99: None 98: Marlins 108 97: None 96: Tigers 109 95: None (144-game season) That's 24 times it's happened, but only to 11 different franchises. So once you've lost 100, you're at high risk of doing it again. In fact, on seven different occasions in that span a team has followed a 100-loss season with another one. The Astros and Royals even managed to lose 100 in three-straight years. In the movies, there's usually a quick fix that gets someone out of quicksand. Eventually somebody shows up with a branch, lasso or whip. Unfortunately, that's not how it works in baseball. Here's the average record of those 100-loss teams year-by-year after reaching the milestone: First season: 67-95 Two years later: 72-90 Three years later: 77-85 Four years later: 80-82 Just two of those 24 100-loss teams managed to bounce back and have a winning record the next season. The 2003 Royals won 83 games and the 2009 Mariners won 85, but both teams finished third in their divisions. Of course, there are success stories. Four of those 11 franchises have World Series appearances at some point since losing 100. And there's a good chance either the Nationals or Cubs will join that group this year. The quickest turnaround to the World Series belongs to the Rays, who lost 101 in 2006 and were in the Fall Classic just two seasons later. And it only took the Tigers three seasons to go from 119 losses in 2003 to American League champs in '06. Staying on the positive side, here's a list of some standout draft picks those 100-loss teams selected the following June: Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Gerrit Cole, Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Justin Verlander and Josh Beckett. The Twins boast a couple of the most remarkable turnarounds in baseball history, but falling all the way to 100 losses is like being neck deep in quicksand. Hopefully the new President of Baseball Operations brings a lasso. Click here to view the article

What a game for Andrew Vasquez. That dude is huge (listed as 6'6", 228 lbs on MiLB) Nickname idea: Vasquatch.

I can understand not calling up Walker or Palka if you say there's not anywhere for them to play. But Logan Shafer in LF and Kurt Suzuki DH? Really? Really?

Well, I didn't see this coming. Rosario is on the bench, which doesn't surprise me, but it's Logan Schafer in LF, not Grossman. Huh?

That's like looking at a glass that's half full and saying that it's completely empty. And by only taking his hitting into account, you're also looking at the glass with one eye. And it's your bad eye. This article was intended to be read with Rosario colored glasses Yes, those are real concerns.

It was a bad play, but you make an excellent point. Molitor did call a team meeting and urged the guys to go out and try to make plays instead of worrying about making mistakes. Kind of a mixed message.

These are all legit concerns, but the tools are all there. You should be able to coach a guy to make smarter decisions and in time he should improve his plate discipline. You can't really teach anybody to run faster or throw harder. I would agree he should be a 4th OF but only if he can't improve from what he is now. But, the guy's still only 24. He lost some development time from his minor league suspension and they tried to teach him second base one year. Could explain why he's so raw out there, maybe not.

Quick Eddie update: Phil Miller reports he's in Molitor's dog house after making a dumb decision in the ninth inning of last night's game. Here's a link to the video. Again, it was a stupid idea, but Eddie's arm has been special. Since the start of last season, only Starling Marte has more outfield assists and he's played over 600 more innings. Should be interesting to see who gets the nod out in left tomorrow. Robbie Grossman was a triple shy of the cycle last night, but Rosie did hit a home run off of Friday's starter Danny Salazar earlier this season.

Back in late May, Eddie Rosario appeared to be destined to become this season's Danny Santana and fall prey to the sophomore slump so many had predicted. After an electric rookie season, Rosario stumbled mightily out of the gate this year and was sent down to Rochester. Unlike Oswaldo Arcia before him, Rosario responded well to the demotion and is quietly having a nice second half.At the time of his demotion, Rosario was at serious risk of becoming an afterthought if he couldn't find some success in Triple A. Robbie Grossman was called up the same day and got off to a brilliant start. Miguel Sano was still occupying right field and Arcia was also still on the roster at that point. Rosario was joining a Rochester outfield that already included Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Adam Walker. If things went poorly, it was entirely possible Eddie wouldn't make it back to Target Field until September, or (like Arcia in '15) not at all. But instead, Rosario went down, took care of business and the rest of the cards fell in his favor. In 41 games with the Red Wings, he posted a .319/.343/.538 slash line and tallied seven home runs, earning a promotion on July 3. His numbers have been markedly better since his recall, even though it doesn't appear Rosario has made any major adjustments. He still swings at everything. He swings at 58% of pitches, which ranks third of 184 hitters to log 800 plate appearances over the past two seasons (only Adam Jones and Jonathan Schoop swing more often). And since his recall, he's still striking out in over 25% of his plate appearances and drawing walks less than 4% of the time. But, thanks to a .143 point increase in BABIP (.244 vs. .387), the rest of his numbers look great. And while there's certainly some luck involved, with Rosario hitting fewer fly balls than most batters (38.5 FB%) and possessing good wheels, you'd think he'd be a good candidate to sustain a higher than average BABIP. Either way, Rosario's current totals (.268/.294/.420) are probably a pretty fair representation of who he is as a hitter. He's not nearly as bad as he was at the start of the year (.200/.218/..313), but also probably not as good as he's been since his return (.307/.336./.482). In the end you're left with a guy who's been a slightly below average hitter so far in his career (96 OPS+). Despite his flaws, there's still a lot to like about Rosario's game. He hasn't looked comfortable in center or right, but Rosario has been among the best left fielders in baseball the past two years. Among players who've logged at least 1,000 innings in left field, Rosario's UZR/150 of 11.1 ranks fourth, ahead of highly regarded defenders such as Alex Gordon and Starling Marte. He also rates out as an elite base runner. His 6.9 UBR ranks sixth among the 184 hitters with at least 800 plate appearance the past two seasons. And while he still has strides to take at the dish, it is refreshing to see a young left-handed hitter hold his own against fellow southpaws (.739 OPS vs. RHP and .719 vs. LHP for his career). There's also a lot to like about his age and contract status, as Rosario isn't arbitration eligible until 2018. He turns 25 later this month, and while some people would like to see the team call up Adam Walker or Daniel Palka, both those guys are only a few weeks younger than Eddie. Whether they provide any upside over Rosario is highly debatable, seeing as both Walker (38.0 K%) and Palka (38.6 K%) had alarming issues making contact in Rochester. If there's one word I'd use to describe Rosario's game it would be aggressive. And it's his aggressive brand of play that leads him into trouble. We've seen him flail at countless terrible pitches, overthrow cutoff men and run into outs. But we've also seen him do things like get outs by throwing behind runners and score from second base on sacrifice bunts. When you get to see a player's flaws on a regular basis like that they become magnified and it can warp your perception. It can wear you down as a fan to see a guy make the same mistakes over and over. But, just the same as Walker and Palka, Rosario is not a finished product. He still has time to smooth out those rough spots in his game. He still has upside. It's anybody's guess how the new front office will view Eddie Rosario, but he deserves credit for playing his way back into the picture. No, he hasn't quite lived up to his impressive rookie showing, but his turnaround is a much welcomed sight after watching both Arcia and Danny Santana fail to get things back on track after encouraging early showings. Click here to view the article

I've heard a lot of people much smarter than I am make the argument that OBP is much more valuable than SLG. And with Granite stealing 52 bases, that's like turning 52 singles or walks into doubles.

Jon Heyman just wrote about the 20 best trades of the past two seasons. The Donaldson trade was No. 1, but AA was also behind No. 15: the Devon Travis for Anthony Gose trade.

Don't get how that has anything to do with Anthopoulos ... but whoever the Twins bring in is going to have to be good at identifying which players to extend. All these young guys who've come up the past two seasons are all going to be eligible for free agency around the same time.

Can't argue with his ranking, but I'm really excited that Nick Gordon continues to improve. He finished sixth for the league batting crown and only one other FSL SS had a higher OPS (Richard Urena .797). I can't believe in his "Arizona's Cautionary Tale" article Nick forgot to mention that they traded away Daniel Palka

AA would be my No. 1 option, but I doubt he'll be interested. Gotta believe he can have pretty much any job that opens up. Something to keep in mind about some of those moves is the status of the Blue Jays at the time. I believe prior to winning the AL East last season they had the longest playoff drought in baseball. It was time for them to try and make a run. I thought it was incredibly bold for Toronto to sign Jose Bautista to a 5-year, $64 million extension in 2011. He had just one standout year, was already 30-years-old and they already had him under contract that season. Thought it was nuts at the time, but that has to be one of the best contracts in baseball history. Edwin Encarnacion's 3-year, $27 million extension in July of 2012 was another banner deal for Anthopolous.

As I mentioned, there are plenty of under-the-radar guys beyond the four I listed taking big steps forward lately. Steele is definitely one of them, thanks for showing him some love.

Correct, unrelated. But Lachlan does have a twin brother pitching in the Orioles' system. Yeah, that Tyler Wells is a beast, thanks for tossing his name into the hat. He's certainly another guy who has had a positive year. Like you said it's too early to tell on these guys, but it seems like a lot of pitchers have established themselves as guys to watch this year, which is exciting.