Tom Froemming

It takes a whole lot bad baseball and bad luck to lose over 100 games. Right now, it's hard to imagine the Twins repeating that feat, but nobody was predicting they'd be that bad last season, either. Here are some things that could lead to another 100-loss season for the Twins. Ervin Santana fails to repeat (like he always does) When pointing to the unaddressed issue of the pitching staff, most of the Twins hope dealers are quick to point to Santana as if he is some kind of bankable commodity. They'll say things like "well at the top of the rotation we've got Ervin, and we know he'll be solid." Really? Ask Angles fans about the reliability of Santana. Santana is coming off a great season, but prior to coming to Minnesota he was terribly inconsistent. He appeared to break out in 2008, his fourth season in the majors, by posting a 3.49 ERA. The next year it was at 5.03. He appeared to have another breakout in 2011, finishing that season with a 3.38 ERA. The next year it was 5.16. The yo-yo nature of Ervin's production continued in 2013 when he came back with another strong performance, posting a 3.24 ERA. Then came two mediocre seasons. He was great last year, but if the pattern continues things don't look good for 2017. He has five seasons in which his ERA+ has been over 105, but he's never done it back-to-back. Beyond Santana's inconsistent track record, there's also the fact that he turned 34 last month. There are only ten active pitchers who've made more starts than Santana's 343, and that includes free agents Kyle Lohse, Jake Peavy and Bronson Arroyo. Father time will catch up to him eventually. Jason Castro is a mere mortal Many of the optimists point to Castro, the only major addition this offseason, as the sole reason to believe the Twins' pitching woes will be fixed. As if he is a magic wand that will somehow mend basically the same pitching staff that gave up 128 more runs than any other American League team. In my opinion, framing numbers should to be taken with a grain of salt. In order for a catcher to intentionally try to steal strikes, it helps if his pitcher has the command to put a pitch just outside the zone. Does the Houston pitching staff deserve more credit for Castro's impressive framing marks? I think it's certainly possible. Also, I suspect there may be umpire backlash against catchers who have reputations as plus framers. I do believe strongly that being a good framer is a skill. Castro has that skill, however, the positive impact he can make greatly depends on the guy he's looking at on the mound and the guy behind him calling strikes. And I know he wasn't brought in for his bat, but Castro has hit .173/.240/.257 (.497 OPS) against lefties over the past two seasons. Travis Wood has a better career OPS (.522) than that. He's a pitcher. Just sayin'. Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco both look like they should be DHing We've only seen limited samples of both Sano at third base and Polanco at shortstop in the majors, but things haven't exactly looked promising. Of 39 players to have logged 350 innings at third base last year, Sano ranked 22nd in defensive runs above average. That's not horrendous, but also not great. Using that same threshold, Polanco ranked 35th at shortstop, ahead of only Alexei Ramirez. Ick. Putting them together could be a complete disaster. Whatever upgrade Castro will be behind the plate may be negated by poor defense on the left side of the infield. Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins are finished In 214 1/3 innings pitched between 2015 & '16, Phil Hughes had a 4.83 ERA. He gave up 52 doubles and 40 home runs. Opposing hitters had an .822 OPS against him. He only mustered 5.4 K/9. That's real bad. After the 2015 All-Star break, Perkins had a 7.32 ERA and gave up seven home runs in just 19 2/3 innings pitched. That's real bad too. Optimists are hoping those ugly numbers came because both were pitching hurt. But the fact remains we haven't seen either Hughes or Perkins healthy or productive for a while now. It's possible we never do. Brian Dozier regresses (duh) Dozier hit as many home runs in the second half of 2016 (28) as he had in any previous full season. He's as good of a regression candidate as anybody in baseball. It would be hard to envision some kind of complete collapse from Dozier, but even if he fades back to the player he was pre-2016 it'll hurt this team's chances of getting out of the basement. If the team lost 100 with Dozier going completely nuts, what could happen if he has a down year? Max Kepler falls victim to the sophomore slump Lost in the jubilee of the Dozier homer derby was the fact that Kepler struggled down the stretch. After the break, he hit just .233/.304/.391. We've seen our share of Twins struggle to make adjustments in the majors and it's easy to forget Max hasn't even turned 24 yet. There may be some growing pains ahead. No, Kepler doesn't have some of the same, obvious contact issues that plagued Danny Santana, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano, but he also struggled to drive the ball late in the year. He'll need to react to how pitchers will be attacking him. Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios fail to materialize That last month of Buxton sure was fun to see, but he didn't do much to solve his biggest issues. He still struck out in over a third of his plate appearances. But at least Buxton had a nice stretch of productive baseball. Of Berrios' 14 starts, there's really not a one that stands out as a strong performance. He was hittable (11.4 H/9) and struggled with control (5.4 BB/9). Both Buxton, 23, and Berrios, 22, showed us so much in the minors and have impressive prospect pedigrees, but, like Kepler, it's likely they still have some struggles to endure on the road to establishing themselves. I have little doubt all three of those guys will have fine major league careers, but I'm not so sure they all take off in 2017. And there we have it, my reasons why the Twins could have another 100-loss season in 2017. I'm sure I've overlooked a few other things that could also cripple the team. If you're willing to take a stroll down Negativity Lane, post your nightmare scenarios in the comments.

Back in 2015, the Twins had a very defined bench. Both Eduardo Nunez and Shane Robinson spent nearly the entire season on the 25-man roster, yet neither started 50 games. And between them, and your ever-present backup catcher (either Chris Herrmann or Eric Fryer that season), Paul Molitor had insurance at virtually every position on the field. Robinson even pitched a scoreless inning. It was a nice security blanket for the first-year manager. But it's not easy to have such a steady bench, a lot has to go right in order for that to work out. One thing that permitted the bench to be so defined in 2015 was the relative stability of the starting lineup. That season, the Twins rolled out 98 different defensive lineups, using their most common configuration 22 times (C-Suzuki, 1B-Mauer, 2B-Dozier, 3B-Plouffe, SS-Escobar, LF-Rosario, CF-Hicks, RF-Hunter, DH-Sano). That may sound like a lot of lineups, but last season Molitor deployed 135 different defensive lineups. The most any one lineup was used was just six times (C-Suzuki, 1B-Mauer, 2B-Dozier, 3B-Plouffe, SS-Nunez, LF-Grossman, CF-Buxton, RF-Kepler, DH-Park). The '15 Twins had five positions in which one player accounted for at least 120 games started. Last season, only Brian Dozier accomplished that feat. Another issue with defined bench roles is the players have to buy into it. Both Nunez and Robinson had been around the block, and while I'm sure they would have preferred more playing time, both were professionals who understood their roles on the roster. While that bench arrangement seemed to suit the '15 Twins, looking ahead to next season it would appear the team is more well suited to use its projected bench players in platoon roles. . Molitor has already hinted at one potential platoon. In a recent article Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press wrote that Molitor "will continue to look for ways to keep Mauer as fresh as possible over the course of the long season, including more frequent rests against rough left-handed starters." At this point, there's really no reason for Joe Mauer to be facing lefties on a consistent basis; he had a .224/.291/.319 slash line against them last season. To be fair, that poor performance was over a sample of just 127 plate appearances, but Mauer's career OPS is 146 points higher against right-handed pitchers (.885 OPS vs. RHP, .739 OPS vs. LHP). Byungho Park is right handed, and while Kennys Vargas is a switch hitter, he has done a lot more damage against lefties (career OPS of .834 vs. LHP, just .693 vs. RHP). So it would seem one of those two would benefit from Mauer sitting out against tough southpaw. But first base isn't the only platoon opportunity on the current roster. Robbie Grossman excels against lefties, posting a.289/.351/.425 line against them over his career. He could help protect Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler against same-side pitching. And this could be a year in which the backup catcher isn't there to simply provide relief for the starter. The newly-acquired Jason Castro, a lefty hitter, figures to get the lion's share of the work behind the plate, but he has been much more dangerous against right-handers over his career (.753 OPS vs. RHP, .536 vs. LHP). Given the rigors of catching, Castro will obviously just need days off to rest, but it would seem to benefit the team if those came with a lefty on the hill as often as possible. Potential backups John Ryan Murphy, Mitch Garver and Chris Gimenez all hit right handed. One spot that does not, however, appear have a platoon advantage opportunity is shortstop. Jorge Polanco and Eduardo Escobar, both switch hitters, have done more damage against lefties. Twins hitters held the platoon advantage in 58 percent of their at-bats last season, which is about five percent above the average. That shouldn't come as a surprise, considering lefties Mauer, Kepler and Rosario along with switch hitters Escobar and Grossman all got at least 300 plate appearances. But Cleveland led the league with a platoon advantage percentage at 70, so there could be room for improvement for the Twins in 2017. A lot of how the bench is built will depend on the health and performance of the starters, but watching how the bench unfolds will be one of the more interesting stories to follow in spring training. How do you think the Twins should build and use their bench?

In the middle of the offseason that painting appears fairly clear. Some things may be able to be altered here or there, but there's also a lot of paint that has already dried. Then the games start. Soon enough, the masterpiece starts to look more like a toddler's finger painting. One element of the team appears to be clear, then slap! A hastily applied random color hits it out of nowhere. An injury or severe under-performance from a player who was being depended upon completely changes your outlook. The results can be catastrophic and make you wish you could just get an empty canvas. But sometimes these deviations from the plan can be happy accidents that improve the painting or at least give it new life. Twins fans have seen a lot of roster construction on the fly the past few seasons. A lot of prospects who appeared to be out of the picture in terms of the big league roster made the splash and arrived to Target Field earlier than expected. Here's a brief look at some of the surprise early call ups from the past three seasons. 2014: Danny Santana & Kennys Vargas Santana spent the prior year at Double A, and had logged just 24 games in Rochester before his May 5 call up. He had very little experience in the outfield, so no one could have predicted he would be the Twins primary center fielder that season. Vargas entered that season even farther from the Majors, having played his entire 2013 season at High-A. He was called up straight from Double-A on Aug. 1 (his 24th birthday), and ended up leading the team in DH appearances. 2015: Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano & Tyler Duffey What a fun year full of surprise call ups. Rosario was a highly-regarded prospect, but his ascension to Target Field that summer was a surprise. He was coming off a 2014 season that started with a 50-game suspension and ended with a .672 OPS in Double-A. When he was called up on May 6, he had just a .659 OPS for Rochester. Buxton had played just 31 games total in 2014 and entered the year with a grand total of three plate appearances above High-A. Center field continued to be a trouble spot for the Twins, who turned to the 21-year-old Buxton for help on June 14. He had just 59 games at Double-A under his belt at the time. At least Rosario and Buxton played in 2014. Sano missed that entire season due to injury, so it seemed far-fetched to think he could make an impact in the majors in 2015. But Sano didn't miss a beat, posting a .918 OPS over 66 games in Double-A before being called up on July 2. The Twins have been more conservative with pitchers, but Tyler Duffey came out of nowhere to contribute late in 2015. Never a very highly-rated prospect, Duffey climbed all the way up from High-A to Triple-A in 2014 but he actually opened up '15 back in Double-A. The Opening Day rotation was full of veterans, Trevor May was waiting in the wings, Ervin Santana was coming back from suspension in the second half ... Duffey was a dark horse to make his debut, let alone get ten starts. 2016: Max Kepler Kepler was coming off a season in which he was named the Southern League MVP. He also made his major league debut, a three-game cameo at the end of 2015. But Kepler had also never played in Triple A, and the Twins opened the season with an outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Sano (they were very committed to that experiment at the time, remember?), so it seemed unlikely he'd be called upon until late in the year. Kepler was called up to replace an injured Danny Santana on April 10, and mostly sat on the bench for a couple of weeks before returning to Rochester. On June 1, the Sano outfield experience was over and Kepler was called back up. He played just 30 games for the Red Wings. What's to come in 2017? Well, Ted Schwerzler has a great article in the Prospect handbook that highlights the eight players most likely to make their debut this season, and even offers an ETA for each prospect. I highly recommend giving that a read. Who do you think could make an early arrival to Target Field in 2017?