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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    It will be interesting to see how the new CBA will impact the trade value of players. Last year, the Twins knew that they would get two picks if they did not trade Cuddyer. His value to the Twins and any trade partner was greater. They would not only be acquiring Cuddyer the rest of the season but also two picks if they let him go to free agency. This year teams will be more motivated to trade their players because they won't get picks for most players. This may increase the supply of players available. It also makes the players available less valuable as a trade commodity since teams won't get picks if they don't offer 12-13 million at the end the season. Teams will have to assess the impact. Smart teams will take advantage of the new trade environment. My guess is that any non-elite player in the last year of their contract will not bring much back in trades and have little value. In turn, players with a good contract may actually bring more value and teams should expect as much. For the Twins, Span and Willingham should see an increase in their relative trade value while final year guys like Liriano, Doumit, Pavano will have little to no value. I am not sure where Capps and Morneau fit in the mix. They both have another year, but I am not sure if the terms would be viewed as a bargain. I agree with all of those that caution the Twins against trading Span and Willingham. We need to get a a lot of value back. It is very unlikely that the Twins can reinvest that money this winter and get their production for the same dollars.
  2. jorgenswest
    It is possible to look back and find many examples of trades that worked. To be fair we should add context. Yes, John Smoltz became an elite player. You could have mentioned a few other details at the time of the trade. He was chosen in the 22nd round the previous season so he was not seen as a good prospect at that time. He was in the midst of his second season and was 4-10 with a 5.68 ERA. He had 86 strike outs and 81 walks in 130 innings. So if the Twins trade Span for a player drafted in the 22nd round last year while scuffling through year 2, will you trust their scouting department to have found a gem like the Braves did in 1987?
  3. jorgenswest
    This week's DFA pitcher is Esmil Rogers. The 26 year old has not been successful, but he throws 96 and has a K/9 rate over 9 this year. His ERA would challenge Liriano and Blackburn. Is he worth taking a chance on? Given his arm, the Rockies will probably find a trade partner before he can be claimed on waivers. It will not take a significant prospect. Often it is another player who has played in the majors and struggled like Valencia.
  4. jorgenswest
    According to AL WAR ranks on fangraphs, Mauer is ranked #1 among catchers and Willingham ranks #6 among outfielders. They both have earned a spot.
  5. jorgenswest
    For now, Gray is fine in his mop up role. The Rockies DFA'd a 26 year with a live arm and horrible numbers. The Twins might inquire about Esmil Rogers. His arm is solid enough that the Rockies will probably be able to make a trade. I'd like to see if Slama can be part of the solution, but I believe he is injured now. It might also be good to see Guerra who will be out of options next year. Hopefully, he will get at least 2 months of this season with the Twins. Hendriks is a logical call up for the 5th starter but he might be better off with another 6 weeks in AAA. Another guy I would like to see later is Oliveros. Guerra, Oliveros and Hendriks are young and would benefit from more time in AAA. It also may delay their arbitration year.
  6. jorgenswest
    There will be very few compensation picks overall which will bring up the value of the Twins 2nd pick. It may also decrease the trade value for some players. Previously, a team trading for a potential free agent would know they would get picks if they lost him at the end of the season. Now those picks would not be in play for all but the top players. Once the market goes down for those players, it may drive the market down for the others.
  7. jorgenswest
    With the new CBA, a qualifying offer must be made and declined shortly after the world series in order to receive compensation. The offer must be at least the average of the top 125 salaries - expected to be between 12 and 13 million. So the answer is all of them as long as the Twins offer 12+ million and they decline.
  8. jorgenswest
    Looking back at in season CF trades over last few years. Atlanta has made two trades trying to find a CF. Last year they traded for Michael Bourn (Gold Glove and All Star 2010) and in 2009 they traded for Nate McLouth (an All Star and Gold Glove winner in 2008). Ranked by WAR, Span finds himself ranked 13th of 18 qualifiers. Michael Bourn brought Jordan Schafer, Juan Abreu, Paul Clemens and Brett Oberholtzer. The Braves did not give up any of their better pitching prospects. Nate McLouth brought Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernandez and Jeff Locke. At the time of the trade, Hernandez had made an appearance in the Baseball America top 100 and #4 Atlanta prospect . Locke made some organizational top 10s. It is hard to imagine that Span will bring worth more than Bourn and McLouth at the time of their trade. It isn't even reasonable that he is on par with these players at the time of the trade. In that case, the better course is to keep Span.
  9. jorgenswest
    Has there been a perception that a college pitcher is a safe pick? If so, does it change that perception?
  10. jorgenswest
    I appreciated this study over at Puckett's Pond. http://puckettspond.com/2012/05/15/what-type-of-player-should-the-twins-draft/ It leaves me concerned about drafting college pitchers in hopes of getting an all star player. They appear to be the least safe pick when drafting number 2.
  11. jorgenswest
    Thirdbase is very thin across baseball in 2012. Of those with enough plate appearances to qualify, there are only 11 thirdbasemen with an OPS over .700. As poorly as Plouffe has hit this year, his OPS stands at .692. That would rank him above the median for 2012 thirdbasemen.
  12. jorgenswest
    I hope the Twins continue to invest time in Trevor Plouffe at 3B. He is not likely a solution, but if he does take a step with the bat and glove they will have filled a position that is very thin in talent. The other guy I wonder about is Deibinson Romero. He is quietly leading in New Britain in OPS at .784. It seems like ages ago that he considered a prospect so I was surprised he wasn't older than 25. His season is so quiet I am not sure anyone has adopted him as a prospect. I wonder about his defense. Any thoughts about his defense from those who have seen him or followed him over time?
  13. jorgenswest
    I think Correa would be a good pick, but he will grow out of the SS position.
  14. jorgenswest
    Have patience! Unless they determine after this year that he doesn't have the ability to defend at the major league level, they need to give him this year and next. I hope the Twins management is more wise than some on the board that want to group him in with players who have over 1000 major league plate appearances. The Twins need to develop their own. They can't buy a polished player for every position. Developing often includes times of struggle. Morneau, Hunter, Bartlett, Ortiz, Cuddyer all struggled early while on a path where they eventually played in an all star game. I really believe the Twins need to build with an eye towards 2014 and a goal of 90 wins. If the Twins don't find some pieces within the organization, they won't get out of this hole. He can be a piece of that puzzle. Parmelee can be another piece. There will be struggle along the way. Are we willing to wait? http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?598-Expect-Growing-Pains
  15. jorgenswest
    Our minor league pitcher of the month. Anyone else discouraged by his very low 4.8 k/9 rate? It was a low 6.0 last year in a-ball. It is very unlikely that a pitcher will be successful in the majors with those k rates. Nick Blackburn has seen limited success with similar rates in minors.
  16. jorgenswest
    Agree 100% on Slama. As for Plouffe v Valencia, neither is likely as useful major leaguer long term. Valencia has enough playing time that we can be pretty certain that he is a below average fielder. He also has enough plate appearances that we have a good line on his hitting ability. As a 27 year old with 1000+ PAs, he probably has leveled out. We know who he is and it isn't the caliber of a major league starter at 3B. Since teams don't generally keep a 3B on the bench, he appears to be a AAAA player. Plouffe is 1.75 years younger. He doesn't have near the sample size. We can see that he is a poor fielding SS. Too early to judge how he might develop as a 3B. Given his age and smaller sample size, he probably has higher ceiling. I am not hopeful. I do think there is a better chance (although slight) that he will be a useful major league player. I would rather invest playing time in Plouffe at this point. The Twins should be concerned about 3B for the coming years. After starting pitching, it is probably a spot where they seek a prospect if they are able to pull off a midseason trade.
  17. jorgenswest
    The trade was in 2008. You might have included that Baseball America ranked Carlos Santana as the Dodger's (not MLB's) 25th ranked prospect entering 2008. By the trade, he was midway through a breakout season as a 22 year old in A-Ball. Entering 2010, Santana was the Baseball America's #10 MLB prospect but he had been an Indian for one and a half years. In this case, I would agree that the Twins can get an organization's 25th best prospect entering this season for Morneau. Let's hope they choose as well as the Indians.
  18. jorgenswest
    Our understanding of BAbip differs somewhat. My understanding is that BAbip correlates to line drive percentage. This year, Plouffe is near the bottom in that list also. There is an xBAbip calculation which puts him at around .235. So his combination of low line drive percentage thus far this year and poor luck has led to abysmal offensive numbers. Plouffe has 471 plate appearances. At that number of plate appearances line drive rate (career 15%) does stabilize. BAbip doesn't stabilize even at 650 plate appearances. It is really impossible to use the data at this sample size to definitively say that Plouffe will not be a useful major league hitter. We might be able to say that about Valencia at this time.
  19. jorgenswest
    I agree. I just don't think it is reasonable to expect that offer. Let's keep him instead.
  20. jorgenswest
    The waiver fee in the old CBA was $20000. I don't know if it changed, but the net will not be more than $5000.
  21. jorgenswest
    What is the impact of Morneau's no trade clause? Given his contract and health, I would think most of us would be disappointed with the return we will get for Morneau. I would expect one B prospect and one or two other less significant prospects. The Twins could improve the level of return by taking on some of the salary risk. I would prefer the health and contract risk of keeping him. With both Morneau and Span, the Twins need to play hardball. If they are not traded, I see it as a positive sign that the Twins are only going to trade away one of their few assets if they are blown away by the deal. Let's not expect that kind of offer will present itself.
  22. jorgenswest
    John Sickels over at http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/5/26/3045117/2012-minor-league-ball-community-mock-draft-round-one completed a mock draft this weekend. He has the Twins taking Carlos Correa in the first round. Correa is his top ranked prospect.
  23. jorgenswest
    I am sure they will leave the spots open until they need to put someone on the 25.
  24. jorgenswest
    Given ordinary luck according to BAbip, would his expected batting numbers be worthy of a longer look at 3B or RF? Of the 250 players with 100 PA, Plouffe ranks 250 in BAbip. BAbip isn't entirely luck. Catchers often populate the bottom 10. Currently the bottom 10 includes 5 catchers, Scott Rolen and Ike Davis. Plouffe, Weeks and Raburn are also there. For them, I think it is extraordinarily bad luck.
  25. jorgenswest
    We know... -He is 30 years old. -Over his career in the majors (108.1 innings) he has 5.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 10.1 H/9 -He has pitched with 5 organizations in 4 years. Teams with poor records have released him. The Twins may be the only team in baseball where he is an asset to the bullpen. He would not be an asset to a winning team. At 30, he is more likely to decline than improve. As the 6th, 7th or 8th guy in the pen, he has had little to do with the Twins pathetic record. However, I would rather have that spot filled with a player who can grow into a set up role in the future. I would rather invest the innings into Guerra, Oliveros or Waldrop. I would even rather invest it in a 28 year old Slama.
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