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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I like to see Herrmann and Benson both on the bench. It doesn't matter that Herrmann bats left handed. Butera would never be used as a pinch hitter. Herrmann could be used to pinch hit for a middle infielder against right handed pitching.
  2. jorgenswest
    Count me in support of Benson. I looked at his splits in AA from two years ago. He is better against lefties. Why not start him against all lefties in RF? Sit one of the left handed hitters from among Parmelee, Morneau, Mauer and Doumit (hits better left handed over career). Two benefits result. You have a good hitter in the bench to pinch hit. You have improved the defense in RF. While Benson is not starting, he serves as a defensive replacement, pinch runner, pinch hitter against lefties on the bench. If Morneau is traded midseason, he will be more ready to take on a larger role. If it is clear he is not capable, Arcia is next in line. As for he other three spots, I don't care which of Escobar, Florimon or Dozier starts in AAA. One of the two that stay won't hit and the third will get the chance. There is no reason to keep 4 weak hitting middle infielders on the roster. Ideally Escobar's best entry role is a utility player. The Twins can select between Florimon or Dozier and start Carroll at he other spot.
  3. jorgenswest
    Will anyone argue that the defense in the middle infield from Nishioka, Plouffe or Dozier in the last two years was even close to adequate? it should be mentioned that a significant portion of the positive on defense came from RF and CF last year.
  4. jorgenswest
    I am not sure if anyone on the current roster will be on the Twin roster in the next decade. If Escobar has the defensive skill of a Punto or Carroll, he will be a major leaguer into the next decade.
  5. jorgenswest
    If his defensive contribution is comparable with Punto, he will be a valuable member of a major league roster into the next decade. It is not easy to find a guy that plays plus defense at several positions and well worth a few months of Liriano. As for his bat, he wouldn't be the first athletic middle infielder that makes it to the majors with his glove and improves his bat significantly by mid career.
  6. jorgenswest
    If this was the end of spring training, would you assess he doesn't have it and send him down? What would be the basis of your assessment?
  7. jorgenswest
    Is that your recommendation? Are you advocating for the Twins from office to send Parmelee to AAA and start someone from among the alphabet above based on spring training numbers (assuming they stay on the same neighborhood)? I will state that Parmelee needs to be in the major leagues this year. He may struggle, but he will not make any progress in AAA. He has a chance to be a contributing major league regular until the Twins no longer have him under control. The Twins need to invest in that chance.
  8. jorgenswest
    There is no reason not to give him a long look at 2B as long as his glove is solid. If his glove is good, I would not give up on his bat until he gets to the 1000 plate appearance threshold. There is no guarantee that Rosario will be able to play the position defensively. He may be a corner OF. Carroll isn't a solution. Santana or Michael may be a solution. Let's hope one of them steps up in New Britain. If not, Dozier is the best in house solution through 2015.
  9. jorgenswest
    In an interview on ESPN1500, I felt he was at least as impressed with Escobar.
  10. jorgenswest
    He is going to be the starting RF. He didn't play RF very often in the last few years. Why not give him the best chance to be successful in that role? It would be reasonable to assess that an OF with Parmelee and Willingham is too damaging to the defense to play together regularly.
  11. jorgenswest
    We need to think of him as a DH. The offense he contributes when catching is negated by his defense. How much offensive production can he afford to lose and still be an above average DH?
  12. jorgenswest
    I wonder if he might be more prepared to play RF if the Twins had the foresight to play him there in AAA last year. The Twins really failed in their planning. Any reasonable person could see 1B and DH blocked in 2013. For the sake of the pitching staff, I hope his tenure in RF is a short one.
  13. jorgenswest
    I would be surprised if he brought a top 100 prospect. How much more value does he bring than a Soriano who the Yankees could get for much less than a top 100 prospect? On the other hand, he is at peak value now and the Twins should seriously listen to an offer. They can't expect to be blown away. He is a DH with a history of injuries.
  14. jorgenswest
    Wood, Roenicke and Swarzak would all likely clear waivers as the season opens. Most teams will be struggling to keep their own players out of options. The start of the season is the easiest time to pass players through waivers. Once through, they can bring them up from AAA when needed. It should not be a factor in their decision.
  15. jorgenswest
    I hope Polanco is a starter. I wonder about his glove. He played mostly 2B last year. His glove was supposed to be his strength. Minier and Goodrum will probably not be shortstops at the major league level. Excellent defenders at multiple infield spots are hard to find. Escobar might be that guy. I hope they invest at bats into him this year.
  16. jorgenswest
    Unless the Twins assess that this is the next playoff team, it won't be Carroll. I only have reports of others (Baseball America, Minor League Analyst, Sickels) to describe Escobar's defensive ability. If the reports of his defense at three positions are correct, he will be a valuable member of a baseball team for several years. The Twins need to find the next Nick Punto or Jamey Carroll. It could be Escobar. If he follows a career path like Punto, Hocking or Carroll, his glove will get him in the league and his bat will make steady progress towards adequate. I guy like this is not a replacement level player. It is a myth that there a bunch of great glove no hit utility players are in the minors. In the Twins system currently, there may be two guys that profile in this type (Polanco and maybe Santana). It is worth investing some time in Escobar. If his glove is great, he is valuable now and his bat will get better over time.
  17. jorgenswest
    Carroll entering his age 24 season had just finished his age 23 season in A-ball with a slash line of 243/319/295. Escobar is entering his age 24 season with major league time, better minor league numbers and a better defensive reputation. Look at Punto's age 23 season and you will see something similar to Carroll. It is hard to have hope for Escobar with his performance through age 23, but to state so absolutely that he will never exceed Carroll current level shows little understanding of how a player grows from age 23 towards age 30. Who is most likely put up better offensive numbers in 2013? Who is most likely to be an asset to the next Twin playoff team? The Twins should invest plate appearances into the player they believe is the answer to the second question and trade the other for whatever they can get.
  18. jorgenswest
    I agree with Seth on all 4. i think there will be another guy in the mix also. The end of spring always makes available several players who are out of options. The Twins should be looking for a middle infielder or fourth outfielder among those designated for assignment.
  19. jorgenswest
    There is sure to be a lot of interest in his thread and hard work. Certainly much more than this debate. There are a lot of young Twins to follow with Thrylos' help. I had originally commented on my skepticism on his post (now edited). I think that was a mistake. This can be the thread to question whether the Twins management should factor in spring stats as part of their decision making process. There is no need to carry on the same argument in multiple threads. Games start tomorrow. Win Twins!
  20. jorgenswest
    Within the last year the Astros have hired Mike Fast and Kevin Goldstein. After trying to retool for years, they are all in on the rebuild. In that year the farm system has gone from 27th to 4th in Keith Law's rankings. They will be awful this year and likely next. They may also go from awful to good in 2015 skipping mediocre entirely.
  21. jorgenswest
    There is nothing to chew on. Sample is relevant to data. An at bat resulting in a single as recorded in data can result from thousands of possible events and settings. A member of the Twins staff watching that at bat gathers significantly more information than simply a check in the single column. Our understanding of sample size and reliability of data appears to vary significantly. I appear to be the on the side of the minority.
  22. jorgenswest
    The numbers have no meaning. They can't have meaning at this small sample size. They won't tell you who his a better hitter or pitcher. They won't be predictors of the upcoming season. They are utterly useless. Players will win jobs this spring. I look forward to Parker's video analysis of the hitters and pitchers. Has Dozier changed his approach? Parker might see it in the video. The Twins staff will be watching for it. The numbers will not tell us. Whether he hits .200 or .400 this spring, it doesn't matter. The numbers will not describe whether he has improved or not. If we are going to discuss who should win the spots on the roster, we need to be able to do it without the support of spring training numbers. I think most organizations understand sample size. I hope the Twins do. It does worry me that they seem to base the rule 5 draft on numbers in the very short season AFL. I just hope that they are making decisions based on the eyes of their scouts and personnel and do not give any consideration to data from a small sample.
  23. jorgenswest
    Spring data (the numbers) should play no role in any decision made by the Twins management. Decisions must be made based on performance as seen through the eyes of the staff combined with longitudinal data.
  24. jorgenswest
    If you mean what they do as measured by numbers, any numbers will be meaningless. If you mean what they do in practice, in approach, in games, against quality opposition as seen through the eyes of the staff, it will have meaning.
  25. jorgenswest
    I was aiming more at those who take the time and make the effort in writing articles. That energy and effort is wasted if supported by spring training data.
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