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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Santana's performance this year is in line with other 33 year old pitchers who were league average from 26-31. In a group of 25 pitchers with similar performance and use through age 31, the median age 33 performance was an ERA+ of 85. Santana currently is at 83. It is true that 40% of that group continued to perform as a mid-rotation starter, the norm is a drop in performance. The decline continues as only 32% of the starter were mid rotation at age 34 and 16% at age 35. At age 34, 32% were no longer starters and that number increases to 60% at 35. We are getting the Santana we shoud have expected. We can hope that he is among the rare league average pitcher than continues to pitch well ages 32-35. That isn't the norm though.
  2. jorgenswest
    Is Kepler out of options? He and Polanco both used options 2014,2015 and 2016. A player can get a fourth option year if they 5 or fewer seasons of professional baseball. Seasons are 90 days or more so short seasons won't count. Kepler may qualify for a fourth option. Polanco is similar but had a combined season in the Dominican League (starting May 29) and GCL (ending August 28) in 2010 as a 16 year old. I think it will help the development of both to play in AAA this year. Give Arcia consistent playing time through at least July.
  3. jorgenswest
    Buxton and Sano should be set aside from the guys like Rosario, Arcia and Polanco that have made an a appearance on someone's top 100 list. You hope they can be moved quickly. Buxton was moved up two levels a year and hit AA in his second full season. Unfortunately he was injured after 3 plate appearances at the level and lost significant time. Sano hit AA at age 20 and then unfortunately lost his age 21 season to Tommy John. The Twins correctly moved them quickly to AA. Injuries and not the Twins management slowed or altered their career path. It is the other guys that really needed the significant time in AA/AAA. It is guys that you hope make a significant contribution through their prime 5 seasons from 26-30. It is guys like Rosario, Polanco, Arcia, Santana, Kepler and Hicks that might be better in their primes if they are given that chance to develop in the upper minors. Utilize their options to get them significant time at AAA. Expect struggle when they are 24-25 and are out of options. Play them through those struggles.
  4. jorgenswest
    Agree. This is Polanco's last option year and last opportunity to develop at AAA. They are utilizing the option to add to his limited AAA experience. More emphasis can be spent on pitch recognition, stealing bases and turning a double play. They should also be utilizing that option to expand his position versatility. They won't have this opportunity next year.
  5. jorgenswest
    Trading Dozier is a tough call. At some point Polanco is the better offensive player, but that might not be for a few years. Polanco has fewer than 1000 PAs in AA/AAA. It is reasonable to expect a roller coaster of performance over 2016-2017. It is possible that we don't see the walk rate or ISO that he is showing in AAA this year until a few years down the road. Do you trade Dozier if he is more likely to be the better offensive player in 2017? I would if a trade meant a return that improves the pitching staff for next year. I wouldn't if the best return is clearing a spot and moderate prospect in A ball.
  6. jorgenswest
    Polanco is playing 2B exclusively in AAA. If the Twins see him as a utility option, wouldn't it be wise to play him at SS also? His only path appears 2B and the plan (assuming there is one) must be to move Dozier.
  7. jorgenswest
    His fastball has never been a plus pitch and the velocity hasn't changed. His out pitch was his very good slider. It isn't nearly as effective this year though he is needing to use it more often. The result is fewer swinging strikes and batters swinging out of of the zone less often. He also has fewer first pitch strikes, but that may be batters not being fooled by a first slider out of the zone. If he can't consistently find his once very good slider, he will not be a useful pitcher in the rotation of a winning team.
  8. jorgenswest
    If the only change is slash stats, it is probably just variation due to sample size. Those numbers need a full season to be useful. Pitch level data and rates stats might have value at the month level.
  9. jorgenswest
    Let's see where he is at 200 PAs. Once there look at strike out rate, walk rate and ISO as well as pitch level data. How often is he staying in the zone? What is his contact rate? Chase rate? Ignore slash stats. They are useful in full season samples.
  10. jorgenswest
    Is pitching from the stretch a skill? Is pitching with runners on base a skill? If not, then Nolasco has simply had bad luck for 9 straight years. If they are a skill and one that Nolasco does poorly, they don't show up in FIP or xFIP and those measures don't represent his pitching skill well.
  11. jorgenswest
    Is it possible that the difference between the ERA estimators and ERA has to do with his skill set? In that case they will not converge.
  12. jorgenswest
    Through age 24 and nearly the same number of plate appearances Ortiz had an OPS+ of 101 and Arcia an OPS+ of 104.
  13. jorgenswest
    Yulieski Gourriel could make it more difficult to find a buyer for Plouffe or even Nunez as a 3B. There is no prospect cost attached to Gurriel. http://nypost.com/2016/06/13/cubas-next-impact-free-agent-is-slugger-with-possible-yankees-fit/
  14. jorgenswest
    The Twins dismal starting pitching should have known last November. It shouldn't have been a surprise that many projected the Twins for last place. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-8030-steamer-projections-starting-pitching/
  15. jorgenswest
    I think anyone would. If that doesn't happen, we can knock TR for not selling high as if players ride this month to month roller coaster of radically changing value. Value is created over years and not partial seasons. Nunez has increased his value from the level of DFA in 2014. It is a long way from DFA to top 250 prospect. It only takes one desperate team though. We can hope.
  16. jorgenswest
    Calling him up at age 22 with less than 500 plate appearances at AA and AAA guaranteed his struggle. It may be too late to make a difference or he might be a guy that needs closer to 2000 ML PAs to right the struggle. I would send out Kepler and play him regularly. Kepler will benefit from the time at AAA. My guess is they release him and risk the careers of both players.
  17. jorgenswest
    Fangraphs WAR for Nolasco 1.4 Baseball Reference WAR 0.1 The difference? Fangraphs relies on FIP. Nolasco underperforms his FIP every year. It is either 9 years of bad luck or 9 years on an inability to pitch with runners on base. If FIP runs were what mattered instead of real runs, Nolasco would be a mid rotation starter. Unfortunately for the Twins, the ability to prevent real runs matters.
  18. jorgenswest
    It is about a GM With the courage to own that their signing of a decline phase pitcher to a multiyear contract was a disaster. Further it is hurting the team when a younger pitcher with more upside has to be moved to the bullpen. Followed by recommendation to DFA the player. The DFA itself won't free up money. That 15 million needs to be paid the next few years even though the player is gone. It does free up a spot for a 25-26 year that has already started 73 games in AA/AAA and needs the opportunity.
  19. jorgenswest
    I plan to look at Grichuk and several others. It will take some time controlling for college/high school and pitcher/position player. Grichuk is a good example and similar to Buxton in age at A+. The difference is the Cardinals kept him in AA for his entire age 21 season. He spent most of his age 22 season (Buxton's current age) in AAA. That year he had two short call ups (8 and 10 games likely due to injury) from AAA before finally hitting the majors for good on August 26. If the Twins had kept Buxton in AA all last year and AAA most of this year, would that have given him a better chance for success in 2017?
  20. jorgenswest
    Bringing up prospects is the best hope of selling tickets at this point even if it stalls their development.
  21. jorgenswest
    I looked at the top 10 relievers as sorted by fangraphs. I don't particularly think WAR is useful but it is a good set of relievers and a mix of closers and set up men. Of the 10, several were not successful at age 25 and still getting time in the minors. Look at the careers and paths of Betances, Miller, Harris, Phelps, Wilson, Colome and Britton. I don't think any of them broke out before their age 26 season. Like Chargois, many were college pitchers and had an older start in the minors. Chargois was also slowed by losing two seasons to injury. Spending more of his age 25 season in AAA isn't going to hurt his development and isn't that different from other successful relievers.
  22. jorgenswest
    It doesn't seem like they can fix it by rushing them through the upper levels though. I am very interested in what teams do like the Cardinals. I did look at Carpenter because I know he was a college player. He had around 1500 plate appearances in the minors and most of them at AA and AAA. He came up at 26 ready to be successful. I really need to look at the paths of the guys that started at 18. They key could have been coming up at 26.
  23. jorgenswest
    I don't know the answers to these questions. Before the fall began in 2011, I would have been of the mind to bring up a prospect from AA and let them learn in the majors. It may take three years as it did for Hunter and Morneau, but they figured it out. I no longer sure that works so well for most prospects. Perhaps the focus on prospects means having a plan. Maybe focus means having the discipline to make sure a players gets 1000 combined plate appearances in AA/AAA. Maybe it means a starter getting 50 starts or a reliever getting 100 innings between those levels. I am not so certain that bringing up prospects with little or no AAA experience is equivalent to a focus on prospects. I plan to look at some teams like the Cardinals and others whose players have more success upon reaching the majors. What was the path those players took through the minors? Now I am in two opposing positions. I don't think the Twins can get out of the hole signing decline phase veterans to multiyear contracts. I don't think they can get out of the hole without patient development of their own prospects. Who do they fill the roster with? I guess guys like Nunez, Grossman, Milone, Ramirez, Centeno, Schafer and Fien. Guys young enough when they were acquired that they might find a little upside given an opportunity to play. That isn't a recipe for winning now. Patient development of prospects is the recipe for winning in the future.
  24. jorgenswest
    The Twins have shown little patience in developing their prospects once they hit AA. They match that will little patience for struggles of batter with less than 1000 PAs or pitcher with less than 50 starts at the AA and AAA level. Instead they bounce them back and forth upon their surprise that they struggle. There is a lot to learn at those levels and 57 innings between the two levels isn't enough for most players. Calling up Chargois was the mistake.
  25. jorgenswest
    Santana and Nolasco are both performing within in norms of a decline phase pitcher. This performance should have been expected at the time of the signing. In a study of 25 most similar pitchers who were league average through age 31, the median performance is where Santana is right now this year with an ERA+ in the range of 84-94. Of those 25 pitchers who were performing league average at 31, only 40% continue to do so at age 33. By age 35, 60% of the group is no longer a starting pitcher though through their prime they were valuable mid rotation starters. The Twins could have been lucky. Dennis Martinez took a huge step forward and was a better pitcher in his mid 30s than he was in his prime. The Twins are getting the performance that should have been expected. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/
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