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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Johan Santana
  2. jorgenswest
    My ultimate goal would be to get May back in the rotation without bouncing around Berrios or Wheeler. Duffey can hold that place. With an injury (possibly to Duffey), Dean can return for a few starts. They can try to stretch out Rogers. Duffey's next start is Sunday. They can have the bullpen take the game Sunday led by Rogers. They'll need the fifth starter again the next Saturday. Go with Rogers or bring back Dean. Don't waste a 40 man move on Darnell for a few starts. A few starts in the short term from Duffey (or Rogers or Dean) and giving May a shot in the second half rotation is my plan. Give Berrios and Wheeler a longer stretch in AAA.
  3. jorgenswest
    I would give him a few more starts. Meanwhile I am stretching out May in his rehab.
  4. jorgenswest
    A partial year anywhere shouldn't lead to trust. He could come up and put up slash stats like Santana or Rosario or he could put up slash stats like Hicks and it wouldn't tell us much about next year. I would be playing him all over the field in AAA. If they prepare him as only a 2B, that really limits him. Teams don't carry a back up 2B. If he is going to be a top third 2B, he is going to have an wRC+ in the 115-120 range. He didn't do that last year in his time at AA/AAA. He is doing it this year in a partial season of AAA. So my plan is to give him 400+ PAs in a utlity role next year and listen to offers on Dozier. The PAs grow based on his performance. Move Dozier if the return is someone who will be an asset to the 2017 major league team. Don't move him just to clear space. The Twins are getting median performance from the bats of their 2Bs this year. They have many other spots to try to get to that median or better. The Twins probably won't go that way. Nobody is buying tickets or tuning in to watch Dozier pull the ball foul. It generates much more interest and excitement to call up the next prospect.
  5. jorgenswest
    Of the 11 players with over 100 PAs for Rochester this year Polanco ranks 8th in strike out rate and 7th in walk rate. Compared to his teammates he is below the median in both. So yes, I think he can still improve in his plate discipline. I also think it will benefit the Twins in the future by getting more time at SS, 3B and OF. I know there preference is to throw guys into new positions once they hit the major leagues. They also like to throw bunts and hit&runs at guys in the majors where they didn't develop that skill in the minors. They have a few months of option left to develop Polanco. They should use them. The Twins have pushed so many guys up to the majors with fewer than 1000 (or even 700) PAs in AA or AAA. It is hard to find examples where that path has worked for them. It will not hurt his development to play more in AAA.
  6. jorgenswest
    Another way to look at options... This is his last opportunity to develop in the field and at the plate in AAA. The Twins blow that opportunity calling him and finding out he can't play 2B or he needs more time to develop plate discipline. He can't go back next year. I would play Polanco in AAA. I would play in at several positions. I would push him to be aggressive trying to steal bases (even if it cost games). I would bunt and hit&run more often than strategy would call for it. I would work hard with him on the holes in his swing helping him recognize how pitchers will take advantage of them. The Twins have had too many guys come to the majors without significant time in AA and AAA. I get it with guys like Buxton and Sano who are among the best prospects in the games. Players like Polanco, Arcia and Kepler had a single winter where they appeared on a top 100 list. They are not top prospects. They need those 1000 plate appearances in the upper minors.
  7. jorgenswest
    I am not as certain about Rosario. He has three extremes that will makes it difficult. He swings and misses at an extreme rate. The leader in that category is often a power hitter which isn't Rosario. He swings at pitches out of the zone at an extreme rate. That can work if your out of zone contact rate is also high. Unfortunately Rosario contact rate out of the zone is below average. It is not just out of the zone but his swing rate in general is extreme. He doesn't match that with an extreme contact rate. It is possible to be successful swinging aggressively but players need to match that with high contact rates. No hitter is going to be successful long term if they swing at a higher rate of pitches than anyone else with a swing and miss rate also amongst the leaders. The AAA slash stats tell us little about his progress. My guess is that AAA pitchers aren't as deceptive and his contact rate is up. I am hoping that he has improved his plate discipline but there is nothing in the slash stats that would show that improvement.
  8. jorgenswest
    I think it is about pitch recognition. The players above were not given the time in AA/AAA to develop that skill. Even in Hicks' case, he came up not recognizing a pitch to attack. Others were stacking pitches they shouldn't. It is the same skill and the Twins didn't have the patience or plan that allowed them to develop it.
  9. jorgenswest
    Through age 25, Ortiz and Arcia had very similar offense relative to the league with an OPS+ of 103 and 101 respectively. Through age 24, Arcia had the edge. A difference is the opportunity Ortiz was given in his age 25 season by Kelly.
  10. jorgenswest
    In Paredes case, the Phillies made the trade to circumvent an anticipated waiver claim according to MLBTR. A team may do the same in acquiring Arcia. The best return is likely cash. If no trade occurs, there is very little interest.
  11. jorgenswest
    I think any trade will involve cash considerations in return. The only hope is that someone puts in a claim forcing a team with a lower priority to make a trade. It will likely mean a little more cash like the Paredes deal after being DFA'd. Extra cash doesn't help much closing out ball games. Federowicz is interesting. For some reason the Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres and Cubs have all had him in their organizations without giving him a significant shot at the majors. The bar is pretty low for the Twins. He might get more opportunity.
  12. jorgenswest
    If a teams loses a 3B to injury, their commitment to Plouffe is manageable. They aren't committed next year. For some trade partners, that might be better than a 9 million dollar commitment to Dozier next year. It won't be the contracts that limits the interest in either. It will be lack of confidence in their bats.
  13. jorgenswest
    Winning percentage as manager Molitor - .450 Gardenhire - .507 Maybe a little
  14. jorgenswest
    Where might Arcia fit? It has to be as a RF or DH. The team with the least production in RF is the Phillies. They have DFA'd Lough and recently acquired Paredes. That might be a platoon fit but Paredes has shown reverse platoon splits as a right handed batter. Milwaukee has had limited production from RF with Domingo Santana is on the DL. It probably depends on his outlook. They wouldn't want to take at bats away from Santana to give to Arcia. They might claim Arcia and DFA him when Santana is healthy. The Yankees production in RF has been poor thanks to Aaron Hicks. That might be a platoon pair if Beltran wasn't in the way. It was suggested that the Royals and Rays might need a DH. Would the Royals see Arcia as an upgrade over Morales at DH or Orlando in RF? Probably not. The A's have a similar situation with Butler at DH. The Rays use DH by committee and have a young RF. The Braves production in RF has been poor. Would they cut ties with Markakis? I think there are two teams that are in the most need of production from DH or RF without having anyone like Markakis, Butler or Morales in the way. The Phillies and the Twins are the teams most in need of Arcia.
  15. jorgenswest
    I am interested to see how Arcia's DFA resolves. The Twins must have assessed that he will not be claimed. They had other options and a great need for players with an upside. I see two possible bright sides. -Arcia makes it to Rochester and hits well given consistent playing time. -Arcia is claimed by another club. He plays regularly and hits well. The eyes of the Twins owner are finally opened and the result is new management in the front office and on the field.
  16. jorgenswest
    They are not stuck with anyone due to their contract. Teams are allowed to release players. The Rockies did today. They must roster the 12 best pitchers regardless of contract. This is about what they should do. If waiving Nolasco, Hughes, Perkins or Santana is what they should do, they need to do it.
  17. jorgenswest
    Yes. FIP takes 200 innings to be meaningful. He was 28 for 28 in holding saves. That is meaningful.
  18. jorgenswest
    Focusing on the should rather than trying to predict... Should the Twins plan a spot for Hughes and Nolasco? Should the Twins keep or trade Abad for his last year of team control? My thoughts... I would keep Abad. I don't think I can replace him in the winter at the same cost. I like the 1 year commitment the Twins will have with him next year. No extensions. The problem with Hughes and Nolasco is they have Pressly, Tonkin, Burdi, Chargois and other younger harder throwing options. Add two lefties and a closer. The bullpen is full. If Nolasco and Hughes come to spring with their old velocity and command, they are starters. If they can't win a job in the starting rotation, I don't want to dump them in the bullpen.
  19. jorgenswest
    Instead of predicting what Ryan will do, let's discuss what he should do to build the pen. What spots in the 2017 should he write in now? How should he use the rest of this season with the current staff? Who can they reasonably pursue in trade? Who can they reasonably pursue in free agency? Bluechipper has Pressly and Tonkin somewhere in the pen. Anyone else?
  20. jorgenswest
    Perkins was fantastic in the first half. I don't think they compete last year without him. Should they have traded him instead of extending him? Maybe. The Twins were fun to watch last year and his first half performance was a key. In theory, teams should probably trade every player as they get to 30. If they did, they woul get much better value than at age 32. It is hard to imagine how they would win games without some veteran presence.
  21. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to build a bullpen for next year and most of that building needs to come from outside the organization. The Twins can not plan on Perkins making any contribution next year. With the loss of Perkins, they have to be careful not to commit to current relievers. Jepsen - will be a free agent. Let him go. Abad- under control through next year(age 31). Don't extend him. Kintzler- under control through next year(age 32). Don't extend him. Consider not tendering. The rest of the bullpen members are still early in their contracts with several years of team control. If they pitch well, there will be a spot. Is there anyone on the current roster that they should plan on being reliable late in games next year? Do they need to fill those top 3 spots in the bullpen through trade and free agency?
  22. jorgenswest
    Another extension into the decline phase years fails to pay off. Perkins was under team control through 2015 under very favorable terms in his previous contract. The Twins were compelled to purchase his age 33 and 34 year old seasons with a option/buy out at age 35.
  23. jorgenswest
    Improving the defense will help every pitcher in the rotation. Bad defense leads to high leverage innings, larger pitch counts, shortened starts and stressed bullpens. The cumulative effect of bad defense takes a toll on the pitching staff as the season progresses. They chose this defense. Sano in RF. Santana in CF. Nunez at SS. Suzuki at C. Should any of them have been expected to be anywhere but the bottom at their positions? Add the poorer than expected play of Rosario, Dozier and Escobar and you give a staff no chance. Pitchers that should have been mediocre are at the bottom instead. As they rebuild this team, they need to build it on a foundation of defense. They need to choose gloves over bats. Poorer defense has a cumulative effect as it stresses the pitching staff. Poorer hitting doesn't have that same cumulative effect.
  24. jorgenswest
    Is there any position where Nunez can help a winning team? I can't imagine how teams watching his most recent game at 3B or last night's game at SS could possibly want him in their infield. It isn't just error in the fourth. The ground ball from Pujols should have been an out at first in the fifth. Should the Twins see if he can play RF while Sano is out?
  25. jorgenswest
    It will be reality if Molitor doesn't play him regularly. The Twins have few left handed power options in the organization. You would think he was at least worth two months of consistent play. Had they started the season with that plan, they could be much more confident cutting ties now.
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