KirbyDome89

Jose Berrios 2nd Half: 4.46 ERA, OPS against went from .671 to .755 and his SO/W went from 4.52 to 3.25 James Paxton 2nd Half: 3.63 ERA punctuated by a 1.05 ERA over 5 September starts Odorizzi has better numbers than Tanaka essentially all year, with each having their own rough patches so if you're a believer in him not giving up homers at Yankee Stadium that's your advantage. Severino is a no brainer over Dobnak. If Severino is healthy, and it appears he is, the lack of innings shouldn't matter. It seems silly to knock him for throwing only 12 innings when Dobnak has tossed 28 in his entire career. I'd take Rogers over any of the back end guys mentioned, but May and Duffey aren't on par with any of the 3 big arms at the back of the NY pen. May has turned it on this half and Duffey has been solid all year when given the opportunity and maybe this is their coming out party but IMO that's still advantage NY. As far as the rest of the bullpens go NY: Gearrin, Hale, Cessa, Kahnle, Green, ect... MN: Littell, Stashak, Romo, Graterol, Smeltzer, ect... That feels like a push. I won't feel particularly confident watching some of those guys take the mound for the first time, although NY fans probably feel the same after watching that series at Target Field. If the Twins have an advantage, it's that they have an offense capable of keeping them in every game. They've shown time and agin this season they're capable of whittling away leads or downright exploding to take over games. I'm excited to watch them swing the bats, i'm anxious about how the pitching staff will perform, especially in NY.

In the context of what they'll spend next year, and the current state of the pitching staff, yeah, it is. 101 wins means they didn't fail to aptly address the pitching staff and instead cut payroll? They're in good shape with Dobnak starting game 3 and a bullpen with an unreliable front end expected to pitch the entirety of game 4? That's a stretch, even for you Brock. They had the luxury of playing in a terrible division and an extremely top heavy AL. They're the only playoff team in the AL, including both WC participants, with a losing record against .500 or better teams. They've feasted on bad baseball clubs, which is exactly what they're supposed to do, but that shouldn't scrub away underlying issues. If MN is in the West or East they aren't winning 101 games; hell, there's a good chance they miss the postseason altogether. Even Cleveland, who was far more impacted by injuries than the Twins, managed to win 93 games in the Central and took the season series vs. MN. The Twins have a great offense and a pitching staff that's a liability heading into this series vs. NY. Propping their win total up as some indicator that all is well, or all resources were exhausted in attempting to address issues is akin to saying a starter pitched well because he got the W. Hollow.... It's a shame the infatuation with the "flexibility to spend next year," may cost them a deep postseason run in the present.

Yawn away bud. They slashed payroll and then opted not to seriously address the pitching staff. Shockingly, it's still a major concern heading into a series against a very good team. Next year is when they'll really spend though right? It always is. Win total is a hollow argument; there's no need to travel down that road.

Never underestimate this organizations penchant to cheap out. The same sentiment was echoed last year along with the "flexibility," and "sustainable success," catchphrases. Here we are with a young group of position players performing at a high level, carrying the team into the postseason, and we're treated to Randy Dobnak starting at home in game 3, with game 4 (if we get that far) looking like a bullpen game.

Maybe it's an honest tryout, although I think more likely the Twins want him on the postseason roster and if he can show even a modicum of success they'll use it as rationale for keeping him.

I blame this on them pitching him immediately after getting off the plane following the trade....

“Dyson, however, informed the Twins shortly after joining them on July 31 that he has been pitching with some discomfort, dating to a July 15-17 series against Colorado. He said he’s had aches before and ad pitched through them.” If Dyson sought treatment while with SF and it was omitted in his medical records the Twins have a case here. If he told the Giants staff about his soreness and that he was fine pitching through it as he had in the past, and treatment wasn't necessary, then the waters become murky. I suppose you could argue that morally the Giants are shady by not disclosing that Dyson had some discomfort but I'm not sure they're obligated to disclose that if Dyson himself isn't claiming any aliment.

Perez has been worse over a longer stretch? Idk 6 locks plus 2 near locks along with Stashak & Littell means you're taking 2 of 3 from Graterol, Perez, and Thorpe. IMO it's pick your poison at that point.

I wouldn't feel particularly good about anybody on the 1-10 list entering a playoff game. Half of the locks or near locks are hard to feel confident about. If they're going to carry Graterol and Thorpe then your 12th man as a LOOGY is a wasted roster spot. If they're planning on bullpen games they need somebody who can give them more than 1 out against a LHB. Perez looks awful; even as a LOOGY I don't want to see him.

The Twins approached each of them and they both passed. I'd guess each could've had deals similar to what Polanco and Kepler accepted but they voted to gamble on themselves. It'll likely work out in Berrios' favor and possibly Rosario's as well. I doubt Polanco and Kepler signing deals pisses them off; the amount they were offered by MN on the other hand is another story.

Or maybe Baldelli is shrugging it off publicly as to not make a scene while privately admonishing Rosario. It certainly wouldn't be the first time a coach falls on the sword publicly and honestly I don't have a problem with it.

He's averaging a hair over 5 IPs during that stretch so setting the bar at 3 runs isn't terribly impressive. More encouraging is that he's pitched well against twice against Cleveland and once against Atlanta during that stretch.

Berrios has had a tough 2nd half no matter which way you spin it. Perez has been "that bad," since June. Unless it's mop up duty I don't want to see him throwing pitches in the postseason.

It shouldn't matter, but I'm pretty sure it's been implied 2x now. Stating for a friend of course.....

They might not have a division lead without him pitching through July and August. He definitely screwed the team, but not in that way.

So are we allowed to disagree entirely with this premise or do we have to play along? Asking for a friend.....

I think you're conflating the latter with the former, at least in my read through the thread. Given that nearly half the AL will lose 90+ games, it's probably not the best measuring stick. I'm in the same boat as you; I won't shed any tears if he isn't brought back. If others have reached a level of fatigue with Gibson's inconsistency that they'd rather see change, if for nothing other than the sake of making a change, I get it.

Most teams aren't TB. It was a good move, no doubt, but that was a unique situation and shouldn't be counted on to be available again.

That timeline doesn't make it any less suspicious. Whether he's taking the drug early season, mid season, or at the end, they all have benefits. Neither if more likely than the other because we've heard nothing about why the suspension was reduced. All the protocol in the world can't remove human error, and that assuming it was even human error and not an issue with the protocol itself. If he's masking, it'd be in his best interest not to reveal that the suspension was reduced due to a technical issue. It also wouldn't jive with the explanation he gave for the drug use, which lets be honest isn't the most sound or convincing story.

Are we going to lump their April/May performance in with the rest of the season and pretend it's indicative of where they're at right now? They outperformed those two months. Martin Perez and Jake Odorizzi aren't those pitchers, and they aren't producing near that peak. The bullpen benefitted greatly from starters going deep into games and lots of days off early in the year; since then they've been exposed. They were able to hide and protect guys in the pen and I'm glad they were, because the Ws they banked are the difference between winning the division and playing in the wild card. How many solid bullpens could drop their 8th inning setup man and watch him go unclaimed? Parker still ranks 8th amongst all Twins pitchers for WAR, and hilariously he shares that spot with both Gibson and Perez. Look at the 1st and 2nd half splits. The staff ERA rose over a full run from May through August. They're league average in the 2nd half in terms of OPS+, and that's with the benefit of pitching in easily the worst division in baseball, and in the AL where nearly half the teams have a shot at losing 90 or more games. The disparity between playoff teams and non-contenders is vast. If the Twins rank near or at league average it tells me what I already know, they've got an offense that will carry them and a staff that's good enough to weather a poor division but won't stack up come October. If that was goal then mission accomplished I guess, but in 3+ years I was hoping for more significant change, especially when this FO was handed this core group of position players.

So he's been essentially at or near replacement level for three of the last four seasons, which was the point of the OP, i.e. you're not buying low, you're just buying. What's the quibble here?

No, they should aim for 2 better plus Gibson or a similar pitcher if they're going to seriously try to make a deep postseason run but given the lack of spending last offseason and their unwillingness to this point to deal top prospects I wouldn't say it's likely. My point was that if he's brought back it should be framed in the context of my previous post rather than as a buy low type of deal.

Well Baseball Reference doesn't agree. He's been worth less than 1 bWAR 3 of the last 4 seasons....

He's hit that target twice in six seasons and only once in the last 4. If they get him back for one year in that price range it's acceptable, if for no other reason than they're going to have a hard time filling out the rotation, but I'd bet the under on his WAR.

Eh, I think at this point we have a pretty good idea of what Gibson will be. He'll be up and down all season and in the end his numbers will be that of a mid to back end rotation piece. If that's the expectation for bringing him back then fine, I'm just over the notion that Gibson still hasn't hit his ceiling.