mike8791

I like optimism for bmy favorite team, but I believe the rose-colored glasses need to come off. No doubting Jax's amazing year, but how often do even the most elite relievers repeat? I keep reading about Duran's bad luck, excellent stats, etc., but the man lost 9 GAMES! He could bounce back - or he could continue his decline. Sands had a surprisingly good year, but this is one year out of a very mediocre record. Alcala and Varland are far too unpredictable to count on in critical situations. Stewart's injury history precludes him from being counted on. Ditto w/Topa. Bottom line - the FO needs to add a reliable LH reliever and another mid-inning RP to offer the team a reasonable pathway to top billing in 2025. Counting on the existing roster is a fool's errand.

I don't care what all the "stats" tell me. He has eight losses this year - 5 since the all star break. There's no putting lipstick on that stat!

Couldn't agree more! This team is running on fumes and at this rate look like they could miss the playoffs entirely. I was at the Cubs/Twins game when Ryan left due to injury - sort of the icing on the cake, so to speak. No way this team is legitimate contender with 3 rooks in the rotation and our 2 most highly paid players sidelined indefinitely. But there's a lot more to this meltdown than injuries. Top of the list is the maddeningly ineffectiveness of Duran. He has lost 8 games!! Usually W/L are not critical stats for a closer, but when your ace has lost 8 games himself with 30 games left, there is little doubt he is at the top of the culprit list. Isn't it time for Jax to take over? Rocco has made so many inexplicable lineup and bullpen moves it's just mindboggling. Just start with his use of Jax and Duran with a 6-0 lead on Saturday. If Duran is wearing down why use him in a non-save situation? His resting of their top hitters in a day game after a night game has been his set pattern since he started with the Twins. At this point in the season, every game should be critical. And let's not forget Falvine who sat on their hands all season without any meaningful additions. If this team fails to make the playoffs, this is on the FO as much as anyone. Of course, the Penny-Pinching - Pohlads set the table here with the cut in payroll and refusal to allocate $'s at the trade deadline. Yes, there's plenty of blame to go around here! And the Pohlads wonder why team attendance is down.

Agree that Julien is one of the Twins' best trade chips. So to trade him for a reliever, no matter how good, seems a waste, particularly given the team's need to bolster the rotation for the stretch run and hopefully, the playoffs. Isn't it a better idea to shoot higher by packaging Julien with one of our top 5 minor league pitchers and one of our excess OFs(Kirillof/Larnach,/Wallner, e.g) to land a top 3 rotation arm? No question the team will need reinforcement. Lopez has proven to be a big disappointment; SWR is probably near his innings limit; and Paddack is an iffy#5. While it's still uncertain who will be available by the 30th, the FO, with ownership chipping in additional $'s(Gasp!), names like Snell, Fedde, Anderson, Crochet, Blackburn could be within reach with the right package. Any one of this group would provide the extra cushion needed, especially if the lineup slackens from their 2 month surge.

Before we place the tiara atop Jax, what is his % of inherited runners scored? That should be the top criteria for evaluating relievers. In past years, Jax has been below average in this key stat. Just wondering what this year - and June - looked like.

Agree with your outline, but think the priorities need to be rearranged. Assuming Twins mgt. believes they have a solid chance for a playoff spot, the #1 need is a top 3 starter. Last year, with Gray and Lopez, we were competitive. This year, while Lopez has the potential to be our shutdown starter, he has been very erratic - to say the least. Ryan has emerged as a solid 2 but can he be relied on in the pressure-cooker playoff atmosphere? Last year, he wasn't so regarded. None of the remaining starters seem to offer a solid opportunity for a W, at least against the other top 3-4 teams in the AL. The answer is a better pitcher than Ober, et. al. While the supply is murky right now, in a month there should be some shakeout in the playoff teams, with some dropping out, e.g. the Jays, the D-backs, Cubs. The Twins seemingly have an excess of near-ready players/top prospects - one of Kirillof/Wallner/Larnach/Rosario/ Severino, one of Julien/Martin, and one of Raya/Gonzales/Mathews/Culpepper - to reel in a pretty good pitcher, one who can be controlled for one or two years. It will be tough, especially with injuries to Luzardo, Gallen, Sandoval, Garrett, and Freeland, to find the right add, but find him they must. It's just erroneous to hold on to good prospects when the team is playoff caliber. If the Twins nibble around the edges again on Aug. 1st, you know ownership is content with dominating the bad clubs but not competing with the cream of the crop. It looks like Cleveland is for real, leaving the Twins fighting for the Wild Card. With Boston and Houston surging, this path is by no means a slam dunk. The trading deadline is the only way to make a significant upgrade, not shuffling around prospects.

Interesting article! The Sox have some nice talent. Sheets and Crochet should be the only targets but being in the same division, the Sox would want a ton for either one - and Falvey is the last guy to wind up as top bidder. While a corner outfielder would be nice insurance, the Twins have a decent basket of players who can fill the bill, even if Kepler is allowed to leave. Two of Larnach, Kirillof, Wallner, Castro, or Martin are likely to be at least average performers in the corners and while not world-beaters, offer enough potential that going big for another OF seems superfluous. Ditto with Santana/Miranda and 1B. No, the real need is for another starter, one who at the very least can slot in ahead of Ober, SWR and Paddock. There is one candidate - Luzardo of Miami - who has a reasonable chance of doing just that. The fact he's having a down year could work to the Twins advantage in terms of retaining their top 5 prospects. We can put a nice package together with one of our surplus OFs(Larnach, Kirillof, Martin or Wallner), a young pitcher(Varland would be my choice, but we have some intriguing minor league arms not named Festa or Mathews that Miami might want, and then someone like Camargo (Miami is in desperate straits for a catcher) or Gonzales to complete the deal. Get Luzardo and we might even be able to advance past the first or (gasp) even possibly the second round of the playoffs. As the rotation stands now, we have exactly 2 starters who can provide a reasonable chance of keeping a playoff game close - and neither Ryan nor Lopez are sure bets.

Nick, I applaud your "half-full-glass" take on the offense, but I can't buy it just yet. For this wish to materialize, the big 3 of Correa, Lewis and Buxton will have to produce like all-stars most of the last 4 months for this team to have a decent chance to overtake the Guards' 6-1/2 game lead(not to even mention KC's 4 game lead). The average offensive rankings you cited are perhaps not surprising given the absence of these 3, but there are some huge issues with reading too much into these stats. First, the Twins offensive spurt was most noticeable in the 12 game streak, when they won 10 in a row from the dregs of the division - WSox/Angels. Note their record against the top 3 teams in the AL(NY, Balt, Cleve) is 0-11!! Their offense was led by Jeffers, Kepler and at times Castro, Kirillof. Suffice it to say that 2 of those 4 have relapsed(Castro, Kirillof) and the other two have cooled off. Yes, Miranda has provided a lift, yet still, the offense in the last 12 games has been less than robust. There are still too many black holes in this lineup to compete with the top 3 teams. I'm certainly hopeful that Lewis can provide the added spark as he did last year. Still, that is not a foregone conclusion. I have less faith in Buxton. So far he is just a shell of his former glory days. And Correa, while consistent, is far from playing at an all-start level. This all adds up to much more offensive uncertainty than one would hope for in a solid playoff contender. Big question: have we seen a "floor" or is this just reality?

Surprised you didn't lead off your "Lowlights" with Pablo Lopez. While the rotation has been generally good, he has not. Not that I blame him for the Twins roller coaster ride(the offense is the major culprit) but his failure to step up has really hurt this team. Now 7-1/2 games behind, this team needs him to step up now!

Sorry, have to disagree on Alcala. Instead of looking at ERA, look at his %inherited runs scored. What is it? Baldy has found Alcala lacking in paying attention. He's had plenty of time to learn intricacies of the game but has not. Twins need mid-relievers who can go multiple innings. Alcala cannot. Conclusion: don't gnash your teeth over his "mistreatment". He is a marginal piece on an average team. He has no use on a contender.

Hate to burst your bubble here, Nick, but I've got my doubts because: 1. No doubt Jax has had a good spring, but how do you put a guy who has a below average Inherited Runners Scored % the past 2 seasons into critical save situations? A big question mark in my mind. 2. Yes, I think Stewart looks like a stud if he can stay healthy! Again, a big if here. 3. You can talk about Alcala's stuff but yesterday, after a horrid 9th inning against Tiger scrubs, he was taken out as a precautionary measure due to hand soreness. Does anyone believe he can be depended on going forward with his injury track record? 4. And the off-season pickups - Staumont,Jackson, Okert and Toka have not looked good in ST. But at least better than Funderburk who has been all over the place. Granted this is a pessimistic slant but isn't it just as likely as your take?

You pretty much nailed it. Ownership should get a failing mark. The Pohlad banking mentality seems to permeate the generations. They simply don't understand that if they want to expand revenue, they must invest first, especially on the heels of a successful(at least for this franchise) 2023 season. From the contractor(Carl) to the myopic(Jim) to the inexperienced(Joe) Pohlad, this family has exhibited no interest in bringing another WC to the Twin Cities. As a passionate Twins fan, I'm afraid our only hope is a franchise sale to a non-penny-pinching group. As far as the FO, you might be a tad generous with your B-. My grade : C. They did fine around the edges, but does anyone think this is a better team than the one in the playoffs? How do you lose guys like Gray and Maeda and think that Paddock/DiSclefani will slot in seamlessly as replacements. Right now we have one playoff-caliber starter with many question marks attached. Ryan and Varland are homer prone, Paddack is totally unproven. Ober might fit in well as a #2 or3 but again, still iffy. Why Falvey should get no higher than a C here is simple. He did not move the needle! Sure, ownership didn't help but this org. is just not built to spend the $ to bring in a difference maker, particularly for the rotation. TD has been full of requests for a trade ala Lopez in '23, but FO simply unwilling to pull the trigger on trading one or two of their top prospects. As recent reports out of Seattle indicate, Miller was their target but the twins refused to pony up. Question: would you rather have Lee or Miller come postseason? The Twins seemed on the cusp of becoming a force in the AL even after losing to the Astros. They had a good young core, together with two potential All Stars in Correa and Bux who underperformed badly last year but with a probability of rebounding in 2024. The offense should be improved, but we all know that it is pitching that wins in October. Yes, the FO has bolstered the relief corps, but the rotation is shaky enough to greatly diminish their championship aspirations next fall. The off season has been a major disappointment.

Nice article, but I think there is one glaring omission. If Lee's value is so high wouldn't he be more useful to the Twins as a trade piece to acquire a #1/2 starter. I've seen mention that the Marlins in particular need a SS and thus Lee could very well be sufficient(or with minor additions) to nab Luzardo. With the Twins supposedly in a win-now mode, doesn't it make sense for the FO to explore such a deal now? There is no clear position for Lee with Lewis, Correa, and Julien set. Julien might substitute for Lee but the latter would generate much more interest as a SS. I would hate to lose Lee but if the Twins want to be serious contenders for WS players, this is exactly the type of trade they should be making!

Nice article! Glad someone on TD brought up Law's comments. They were quite a slap in the face to FO's faith that Paddack could step right into Twins rotation. But, as you said, realistically, his ceiling is more likely Maeda's than Gray's. Which brings me to my quarrel with your comments. Based on 2023 this team showed potential to move into the top tier. You can forget about that hope if their plan is to fill Gray's spot with the likes of SWR, Varland, Festa or one of the mid tier FA's. If they don't plan on a better add than Paddock, this team will be headed in the wrong direction. A Lopez-like trade is a necessity. We have the position players/rookies to get it done. This should be the top goal of the offseason.

Adding to Twins offseason woes: MLBTR reports Cards signing Gray today. No surprise, but still we have lost 2 of our top 3(or4) starters. Not a good way to start the offseason, especially if FO/ownership intends to surpass last years' results.

Nice analysis, but as others have pointed out, the Twins OF is a mess! Wallner still unproven - will he follow path of Miranda or continue to impress? Still a big question mark. CF is a bigger Q mark. Dreaming Buxton there is a fool's errand at this point. The Twins need a capable replacement for Taylor, either Taylor or via trade for someone like Kiermeier. Result: no way can they trade Kepler. We have no one else in org who is even close. The IF is in better shape, assuming Julien and Lewis can be expected to play at least 75% of time at 3B and 2B. I would resign Farmer to cover absences. He and Castro can be the 2 major subs in the IF. This leaves Polanco as our best trade asset. Will he alone bring in a suitable #2 starter? No, but he can be a major portion of a trade, along with a top minor league pitcher and maybe someone like Larnach, Vazquez, or a top 10 position player(but not top 3). I'd go for Glasnow or maybe one of Miami's good young pitchers(after all, it worked once). While this is off topic a bit, I have to express keen disappointment in the team's plan to cut salary. Here is a division winner + one playoff series victory with a roster ranked 6th among the30 ML teams. And yet they seem to be backtracking. Shame on you Joe Pohlad! A cut of up to 25% of payroll is a real slap in the face to Twins fans who have waited patiently for a true WS contender to emerge. There is a deep FA pool of good-excellent starters who stand a good chance of replacing Gray without giving up a valuable piece of the current roster. While Polanco might be considered a luxury, in addition to CF, the Twins have no reliable starter at 1B or DH. His bat would fit nicely into a lineup clearly lacking in clutch, contact hitters. With a $125MM or so payroll, what are the chances of the Twins advancing further in the playoffs in 2024? Sure they benefitted greatly last year by the emergence of Lewis, Julien and Wallner, but can we count on all 3 to continue to progress? Are there any prospects on the 40 man who look capable of equalling 2023 newcomers? Yes, this might be a slightly negative take, but the goal next year should be to build on 23's record and improve on it. With a limited budget, that prospect looks improbable as of now.

While I don't particularly like playing the blame game with individual performances, especially Gray and Jeffers, your #1 point really nailed it: : this lineup could not produce runs. Like the first half of the season, the playoffs saw a return to the all-or-nothing pattern. With the exception of Correa and Julien, their lineup could not produce runs outside of HRs. The big questions for the off season is: how do we get more professional hitters into the lineup and how do we change our offense philosophy? While notable offensive improvement in the 2nd half was sparked by newcomers Julien, Lewis and Wallner and Kepler's surprising rebound, this lineup had too many weaknesses, especially in the pressure-packed playoffs. Any offseason activity has to start with adding a cleanup hitter with proven ability to drive in runs. Guys like Bellinger, Soto, or Goldschmidt would fit the bill. And replacement of the hitting coach should be equally important. If we rely on the rooks to continue to improve and hope for a Buxton/Kirillof/ Correa rebound, I believe 2024 will be no better than this year. There is a lot to look forward to, as many have said: Strong rotation(though one more solid#2/3 starter is essential), a stronger pen(again, some reliable closer-type to share w/Duran would be desirable) and one or two from AAA making a significant contribution gives us reason for optimism. But this is all for naught if the offense is not fixed. This should be at the very top of Falvine's list.

Couldn't agree more, Nick! What good is great pitching if your offense is AWOL. While this rotation is the deepest we've seen in many years(probably since 1991), great starts in our last 2 playoff series did little good. And the comparisons are chillingly the same this year: a hot and cold offense that can explode but still comes up short in too many close games and a shaky pen headed by a very vulnerable-looking closer, followed by our other pseudo "shutdown" arms(I'm looking at you Jax, Pagan, and Thielbar to a lesser extent). Yes, the Twins offense's numbers look much better post-All Star but they still have the very disturbing habit of failing to support good pitching(Gray is the obvious example here). In the playoffs there will be no weak pitchers to feast on. This lineup has no real sparkplug, save Lewis< who can be labeled a clutch hitter. If he is absent or not fully recovered to pre-injury performance, name one other player you can count on to deliver a key hit?? It should have been easy to answer Correa and Bux, but that hope is greatly diminished by now, I'm afraid. Solano, Castro and Farmer are great role players but can they be counted on in pressure situations? This team's propensity to K in clutch situations has become a regular signature of the 2023 season. Will it change in October? Not all doom and gloom here. I expect them to break their horrible streak, assuming Rocco is smart enough to bring in guys like Varland, Maeda, and hopefully Stewart/Paddack in place of Jax and, yes, even Duran if necessary. But unless this offense takes their collective hands away from their necks, I find it unlikely this team can pull off a series win. Hope I'm dead wrong!!

While I'm usually in agreement with Chief, I can't be on this post. Instead, the real reasons for this loss and losing 3 of 4 are the following: 1. Using Jax in critical situations. As his 10 losses indicate, I don't care how much "stuff" he has, this old stat brings his ineffectiveness into sharp relief. Last year he allowed 40% of IRS - a terrible % - and this year, while not knowing his IRS%, the 10 losses are all I need to see to want to restrict his use to non-critical situations, especially in the playoffs. Duran, Thielbar and Pagan have been far superior, Varland, too(in SSS), If Stewart is ready, and even Paddack, Jax should be at the end of the list. 2. What most seem to miss is in the last 4 games, this offensive juggernaut has a grand total of 21 hits!! They were lucky to win even one game with this paltry total. This offense continues to be all or nothing, with a few explosions sprinkled into a very few games. It's pretty obvious, this offense will be the worst among the 6 playoff contenders, unless the hot and cold rooks blow hot again. Obviously, it's too much to expect Correa/Buxton to carry the team, and the remainder of the lineup is average at best. They badly needed a jolt from the FO by Aug. 1st, but we all know what happened then. In summary, yes, they will make the playoffs(mainly due to Cleveland's collapse) and yes, with Gray and Lopez starting, their chances to break the dreaded streak look better than in years, but this is still a flawed team that blew the chance to add much needed pen help in FA and the trade deadline and way over-estimated the contribution of their "super stars". Hope I'm wrong, and the team surprises in October, but the odds are heavily against it.

Terrific article, Nick. The 2022 deadline trades were exactly what was needed at the time. At least the FO recognized the gaping holes and made some dramatic moves to increase their odds of making the post-season. The fact these moves backfired was certainly unfortunate, but trying and failing is far better than sitting on your hands. Which brings us to 2023. I have said in previous posts that the FO's failure both in the offseason and trade deadline not to augment a very shaky pen was a firable offense. Several closer-types were available as FA. Lesser arms, but improvements nonetheless were available mid-season, yet this smug FO did nothing, even though the pen was decimated by injuries(Stewart, Thielbar), refused to see Jax's uneven performance with runners on base, realized Duran was a shadow of his first half self, and had failed to produce one reliever in their 7 years capable of consistently shutting down a team in the late innings. Just this year we have seen guys like Winder, Sands, Ortega, Balozavic, et. al., fail miserably as fill-ins. I am truly amazed at the refusal of TD fans not to understand how badly this FO has failed the team and its fans! Let's hope Joe P has more guts than Jim had and fire these clowns.

Smack on, Lou! This failure in the offseason is a firable offense. They saw even after the Lopez acquisition last year that he was unreliable. So going into the 2023 season they had one "closer-type" reliever in Duran - and he came with the risk of the dreaded sophomore slump. Fortunately, he has been a lot more than a one year wonder, but without reinforcements, he has deteriorated recently. To rely on Jax and Thielbar as late-inning relievers was a high risk move. The 35 year old Thielbar was an excellent signing but it shouldn't be surprising at his age that he's succumbed to injuries, nor should it be a surprise that with his 40% Inheritred Runners Scored rate in 2022, Jax has proven to be shaky in late inning critical situations. The FO has been fortunate to see somewhat of a Pagan renaissance and Stewart emerging from the scrap heap, but to expect guys like Sands, Moran, Winder and Blaze to be positive reinforcements was just a pipe dream. Granted, the big failure this year has been the offense but in the middle of a pennant race(and hopefully a playoff) it isn't too surprising that the starters have fallen off, thereby putting more pressure on the pen. Short of adding a Hader, it seems more wishful thinking now to expect a meaningful addition to the relief staff before the trade deadline. If only they did more in FA!! Shame on you, Falvine. I hope Joe iswatching carefully.

Let's hope some other MLB clubs are reading this. Balazovic would be the perfect player, along with one or two of Larnach/Wallner/Varland or SWR to entice the Pods to part with Bader or the Pirates to give up Bednar for these are the type of shutdown arms the Twins need for success in Aug/Sept/Oct. Perhaps one of these clubs could buy high on Blaz, but for the Twins to rely on him in their pennant push, would not be wise. Instead, he slots in with the likes of Pagan, Winder, Moran, et. al. as filler. That's it - and that's not enough to help this team gain a playoff spot..

This FO has almost always(Lopez the one, unfortunate exception) avoided major moves to strengthen the closer end of the bullpen. Some on TD argue this is the correct course as relievers future production can be so unpredictable. And yet, with the Twins hanging on to 1st with a shaky 1-1/2 game lead, the argument for bolstering the shutdown end of the pen by the trade deadline is compelling. First, the Twins are too heavily reliant on Duran for critical situations. This heavy dependence has, to a certain extent lately, looked to weaken his effectiveness. More importantly, the current #2 man, Jax, has had an alarming tendency to allow inherited runners to score at the most inopportune times. Can he really be counted on as a shutdown reliever in critical games, particularly in a playoff game? And who else currently on the roster would you trust? Yes, Thielbar and Stewart might return in time, but to count on that happening is just too chancy at this juncture. With Robertson just traded, there are perhaps two other relievers - Hader and Bednar - that would fit the bill. Yes, the price is high, but we do have surplus major league talent to trade - LH OFs and middle IFs. Wouldn't a package of, say, Polanco, Larnach and maybe Varland land Hader or Bednar? As things stand now, these are surplus players who might slot nicely into a team like the Padres. Sweeten the package with a top 10-20 prospect and pehaps the Pods would add Snell to the package(after all, you never know what Preller might do). Do I expect a major deal like this to happen? No, but it would certainly give this team a positive jolt for the stretch run!

After winning 9 of 11, there is no doubt we can allow ourselves a bit of complacency now, but let's not fool ourselves. There are still a lot of holes on this team! Kirillof, Julien and Kepler have been hot. They have carried the offense during this streak. Looking at the rest of the season thru rose-colored glasses, yes, the offense might stay robust IF they continue and Polanco and Lewis come back soon and start contributing immediately. What is the likelihood of this happening? But if the FO really desires to ensure a Central Division title and break the horrific playoff losing streak, they must act boldly this deadline. Adding a bat like Goldschmidt, Bellinger, or Lane Thomas will be necessary to really improve the odds. Sure, we can hope Correa/Buxton will rediscover their batting stroke, but depending on this happening is a fool's journey. We have 100 games to affirm this unlikelihood. We have 32 years of diddlin' around. Time to man up and go for the gold! s.ed

Sorry Derek! The Twins have one reliable closer-type(if you think Jax should be added, look at last night + his Inherited Runners Scored stats since last year). They should be targeting one of Hader, Bednar or Robertson. Period. Middle relievers are fine for the regular season, but in the stretch run and playoffs, you need 3 shutdown relievers with a proven track record in big-game situations. Yes, they whiffed on the Lopez acquisition last year, but their thinking was correct. The offense is coming to life. More importantly, the team is showing some life coming from behind(a rare occurrence over the last decade). When you have a chance for the playoffs, go big or go home!