mike8791

Most of us gnashed our teeth this past offseason when we heard the new team's philosophy that there is no reason to go all in until "the window is open". I say gnashed out teeth because many of us asked the question: how do you open the window wider without adding significant outside talent? But Falvine stubbornly held the course by passing on virtually every available free agent reliever, despite a woefully undermanned existing bullpen. Surprising to many the Twins got off to a great start, sitting on top of the AL Central by 3 games, 9 games over .500. Hard to criticize the FO now, but looking a bit beyond the results to date, there are certainly some hurdles to overcome if the Twins have hopes of sustaining this early season success. The batting order has been robust, as hoped, with the new additions filling serious holes in the lineup. Add in positive starts by Polanco, Kepler, Buxton, Garver and the Turtle, one can see why the Twins have been in the top tier of lineups, particularly slugging. With Sano's expected return in a week or so, this lineup should remain in the top 5 in the AL for quite some time. No obvious needs now for supplementing the lineup. The rotation has been good, as well. Berrios has elevated his game like we all hoped, Odorizzi has made a sizable jump over last year's lackluster season, Gibson seems to be rounding into shape(though we'll hold our breath until he achieves more positive results against top lineups), and Perez has been the most pleasant surprise of all - so kudos to the FO for the results to date. The problem is the team is one major injury away from going from a respectable rotation to a below-average one. Pineda has proven unreliable and there is certainly no one at Rochester who can step in and contribute. Let's face it : Twins' home grown phenoms have phlubbed badly so far - Gonzales, Romero, Stewart. Others expected to provide depth like Mejia, Littell have pretty much fallen on their faces at the big league level. It would be naive, to say the least, to think the Twins have a deep enough rotation to sustain this success over an entire season. Then we come to the bullpen, a widely recognized(except by the Wonder Boys) achilles heel of the 2019 club. After 29 games in the season, the bullpen has largely held together, but can we expect this to continue thru the long summer months? Looking at the pen realistically, only Rogers seems to have continued to solidify his late-inning role. Parker has been good but the jury is still out on a guy DFAed by a woeful Angels club. Hildenberger has looked like an ace at times, and yet his poor inherited runners scored averages still raises doubt as to his long term dependability. May has been a disappointment and while Harper has looked good, his peripherals are shaky and one doubts whether he could be counted on in the heat of a pennant race. As seen by the revolving door with Rochester, no one else has shown any promise, nor is there anyone on the AAA roster who looks capable of providing needed relief. Amazing how badly this organization has whiffed on their drafted pitchers! In summary, April has been a pleasant surprise and has obviously opened our window for contention a bit wider than expected. But the major development in the first 30 games has been the Indians' injury problems, especially in their starting staff. No team can sustain losses of a Kluber and Clevinger without a falloff in performance. Their bullpen was not reinforced over the winter(sound familiar), nor was their lineup improved. It is pretty obvious that the AL Central is ripe for the plucking, especially with the continued rebuilding by the Sox, Tigers, and Royals. So Mr. Falvey, the window is wide open! What are you going to do about it? In baseball, as well as in war, if your opponent is down, you don't go into a defensive shell and hope to hang on. This is the time to capitalize on their misfortune and try to bury them! While it is early in the season, the FO should be planning to go full throttle as soon as possible. First, by trade or by signing, they need to add at least two late-inning relievers to slot at or above Rogers. Obviously, Kimbrel is still available, but at this point, most teams are in a waiting mode until the June draft, after which Kimbrel will not cost a draft choice. Then, let the bidding begin. A far more proactive approach would be to use some of our surplus(outfielders, catchers, lower level minor league prospects) to pry loose one or two relievers from obvious non-contenders. All it takes is resolve and ability to take some risks. Better sooner rather than later if we want to build on our lead rather than tread water. Failure to bolster the bullpen will almost surely result in the FO's early season prophecy of the window not being open yet to come true. And after (hopefully) addressing the pen issues, the FO will figure out a way to pry loose a veteran starter who can slot into the #1 position in the rotation. This is important not only to guard against a lack of depth but also provide the team a much better chance of succeeding in the playoffs(think back to 1991 to remember what that feels like). There are pitchers like Greinke, Baumgartner, Stroman, perhaps Thor or Wheeler who will be available as we approach the trading deadline. All it takes is an agressiveness on the part of Falvey to pull the trigger, trade one or two of our top prospects(in a pretty deep system, at least at lower levels) and give this team a chance to go well into October, for the first time in almost 30 years. It's time, Mr. Falvey. You've made a lot of progress but don't sit on your laurels. The window of contention is now wide open! Do something!!!

Agree that '87 was more of a fluke BUT MacPhail added some key players prior to the season: Jeff Reardon, Juan Berenguer, Dan Gladden, and Al Neumann - each of whom filled some serious holes in their lineup. Would this team have won 85 games without these additions? Very doubtful. Just look at Reardon's and Berenguer's contributions. They were the bullpen. This was by no means a great Twins team, just one that gelled at the right time! After seeing a discouraging last place finish in 1990, MacPhail could have sat on his hands in the offseason; instead, he went out and signed Jack Morris and Chili Davis. Presto, the Twins had their DH and #1 starter added to their core. Didn't hurt that two rookies - Knoblach and Erickson - performed at an all star level. This was a very solid team with three strong starters, outstanding bullpen(remember Carl Willis was an off-season pickup who anchored the bullpen) and strong lineup with very few holes. No, they would not have been preseason favorites but certainly expectations were much higher after these key additions. Are there lessons here for Falvine? I guess that depends on your assessment of the current lineup, but to me an addition like Morris and Reardon would make this team much more competitive than the current roster. Yes, it would be some leap of faith to expect one or two more additions to move the needle considerably, but that did not stop MacPhail from pouncing when the opportunity arose.

Thanks Doc! Read your post and agree with your main contention that the Twins FO does not really know who this team is yet. Sano and Buxton's regression last year threw a big monkey wrench into the rebuild. No doubt! But here is where we diverge. An agressive FO would look at the offseason as an opportunity to fill glaring holes in an effort to improve the team, no matter what Sano/Buxton do going forward. They did this to some extent with the Cruz signing(their most positive move), somewhat less so with Marwin's addition(less so because all he really does is replace Escobar), and just a maybe with Cron and Schoop, both of whom are hardly established major leaguers, though with some intriguing upside. So give them a B to B+ grade on the offensive side. But as you point out their biggest weakness is the bullpen and the single addition of Parker, released by a very ordinary Angel's team, hardle answers the question of who will close out games. Yes, there are some potential closers on the roster, but all with big question marks. One might emerge, but how many blown saves will occur until that situation is resolved? Robertsomn or Kimbrel would have filled the void without endangering future years' budgets. Without such a proven closer, Twins' chances to contend for the Central Title still look like a long shot. And even with the addition of such a proven closer, what could we expect with the Twins' rotation in a playoff series? Berrios is simply not an ace. Just look at his record against plus .500 teams last year. Not very assuring for big game success. The Twins needed to add an ace and given their "talk" months ago of using their stronger minor league system to package some top prospects to a rebuilding team, I was hopeful they could pull something off. But they chose to play conservative and as you say their one new starter, Perez, is a slap in the face to Twin fans hopeful of taking a big step forward in 2019. Hence, my overall grade of a C. Their passivity in waiting to see what they have is more than frustrating. Why not take advantage of their salary flexibility and add some impact players who could vault this team into real contention, no matter what Sano/Buxton accomplish. They fortified the lineup, have enough bench strength now to fill the holes Sano and Buxton could be again, and just think what their playoff chances would be if even one of these two produced as expected in 2019? This is not farfetched even without a Machado and/or Harper(I never would support such huge long term contracts anyway). My argument is that this FO is risk averse(probably a reflection of ownership's own passivity in going all out to win) and thus, destined to plod along in the dreaded middle of the pack without a good chance to compete with the big boys. This is unacceptable to us Twin fans who still remember the thrill of 1987/1991. Why is mediocrity so acceptable in the Twin Cities. It would never be tolerated here in Chicago!

Now that Marwin is on board, thought it would be a good idea to review the Twins' grade for the 18/19 offseason. Prior to this latest move, I would have given the FO a solid C for their efforts to date. A very positive step was taken by the Cruz signing, estimably their biggest FA signing of the winter. Finally, the team has a bona fide DH. When is the last time we can say that? Their signing of 2B Schoop also was a positive one, given his age and previous ML success, at least up until 2018. Who can object to a medium risk/high reward guy, especially when the Twins' 2018 2B production was so putrid. The fact that it was only a one year contract was also wise in that it doesn't block a Gordon or Lewis from making the 25 man roster should their minor league efforts demand it. The Gonzalez signing is also a plus, given his versatility and offensive advantages over Adrianza. More importantly, he provides much needed insurance against another subpar season by Sano or Schoop. Plaudits to the FO on this one. So why just a "C" grade? Good question. We can look at Cron and Parker's signings as positives but in reality they don't move the needle much, at least for me. Cron is nothing more than a journeyman who had one above average offensive year; likewise with Parker who at best is a middle inning filler in the bullpen, not the shutdown reliever needed. But the real reason for a meh "C" Grade is that the FO has not filled the team's two biggest needs - a proven shutdown closer and a #1 0r 2 starter who would give the team a reasonable chance of winning a playoff game. The bullpen need is the most glaring in that everyone currently on the roster is either inexperienced or coming off a shaky 2018 season. As currently constructed, this is a high risk collection that gives no assurance of any improvement over last year's mediocre group. Yes, it seems a no-brainer would be the addition of Craig Kimbel to fill the closer role. Such an addition would move the offseason grade up to a "B". That's how critical the gap is now. Bewilderingly, the FO is playing coy, again waiting for the price to fall to a bargain bin level. The Twins are fortunate one dominant reliever remains unsigned. It would be a dereliction of duties not to get this done! And yes, even in the unlikely event that Kimbrel signs with the Twins(and let's be clear, he is the only one left who would move the needle), the Twins offseason grade would still be no higher than a B. Why? Because their rotation is average at best - loaded with question marks. Berrios has not proven to be an ace, Gibson is a #3 at best, Odorizzi and Pineda are big question marks, and the #5 spot is a crap shoot. With Romero slated for the bullpen(perhaps the offseason's biggest disappointment) the team has no promising pitcher in the high minors who might be considered a future ace. Falvey/Lavine indicated earlier in the fall that, with the improvement in their minor league system, they would be inclined to look to the trade market rather than FA to fill some holes. Well, that ship seems to have sailed! No, free agency did not offer much(I'm looking at you Dallas) but there were some possible trade candidates who might have been pried loose given an attractive package of prospects. True, this is all speculation for now, but the FO if really intending to be playoff-bound needed to take some bold moves here and didn't. We can only hope the team will somehow rebound, be in contention at the trade deadline and be unafraid to pull the trigger to acquire a top-of-the rotation starter, like Greinke, Baumgartner, Thor, Wheeler, even Snell, if these teams are noncontenders. I am not too hopeful that this FO will take these two necessary steps but, like with the Marwin signing, here's hoping they have a few surprises in store. If so, it would be a refreshing break from the mediocrity we have come to expect from the Twins' organization over the past 27 years!

Just a few additional comments to a very well written posts: 1. Most of us question the value of players who've been DFAed. Signing Schoop might be a good under the radar signing for the longer term, but Cron and Parker have had journeymen careers and are crap shoots going forward. A FO building to win now would go for Paul Goldschmidt. Our minor leagues are reinforced. Use these pieces to get a guy like Goldschmidt from a Dback team rebuilding. Not like we have any other 1B in the organization with all star potential. 2. The Perez signing is another crap shoot. This guy has shown nothing in his major league career and the fact that a Texas team woefully undermanned in their rotation DFAed him is pretty telling. Does Levine know something that no one else in the Ranger organization does? 3. As you, yourself, have noted, there was no excuse for a hungry and far-sighted organization to spend the dollars on David Robertson(or Craig Kimbrel) to fill a glaring closer hole. As many on this board noted, there is nothing more disheartening to a young team than to blow late inning leads. What good is it if they finally settle on a Reed or May or Romero in that role by July, when lack of said closer in April and May leads to bowing out of contention by the trade deadline? This is the lack of resolve that has infuriated the TD community. Sign Kimbrel and all will be forgiven. But does anyone think that will happen with this organization? 4. And finally, in their third hot stove offseason, this dynamic duo has completed one low level trade - Odorizzi! No, I don't count dumping veterans in July when the team is out of it. Again, if this FO was really all in to contend in 2019 they should leave no stone unturned to find at least one starter to slot ahead of a still evolving Berrios. Without a clear #1 or 2 starter, their chances to get past a first round playoff series is slim and none. Why couldn't they be proactive, package one of their stalled prospects(Sano is my choice), a top 10 prospect, and some filler to land a true ace, e.g., Thor Wheeler from the Mets, Greinke or Baumgartner. On MLB.com, one of the writers suggested a Buxton for Jon Gray trade. Very risky but when your farm system is not producing pitching, these risks must be taken in a winning organization. Instead, it is pretty clear Falvine is going to sink or swim on Sano/Buxton's 2019 performance. Oh yes, signing Josh Davidson after Sano was traded might not have been a bad Plan B. Hope I'm wrong here and we see a big rebound in 2019 but this has been such a very uninspiring offseason that I find it difficult to envision this happening unless just about everything breaks right. Do I blame the new FO for this? Not entirely. Pohlad the banker got just what he wanted - a pair that are not risk takers and who buy into the Twins way that investing money for a top free agent is not a valid approach. Tweaking the edges is good enough when all ownership wants is to make money year after year rather than invest big one or two years to produce bigger rewards in the future. Who needs Machado or Harper or Kimbrel when we can still make a profit with mediocrity.

I didn't realize the dumpster was that deep! Who needs Robertson, Herrera, Ottavino, Allen, et.al.... we got Perez!!!!. The Wonder Boys strike(out) again! I didn't realize hubris was spelled F-A-L-V-I-N-E.

WTF!! Angels signed Cody for $8.5MM + $2.5MM in incentives for games finished. One year deal. Of course there's a risk for someone with a bad year the year before, but certainly one the Twins could have afforded! Obvious this FO loves to play the waiting game but it sure is excrutiating for a team with such obvious needs. Oh well, just have to wait and see, but my faith in the Wonder Boys is draining quickly!

And now there is one! Ottavino signs with Yanks for 3 years at $27MM!! Robertson signed for $23MM/2years and Herrera $18MM/2years. Any one of these are clearly superior to anyone now slated for the Twins' pen and were all eminently affordable for the Twins. Look out below if Allen slips from their grasp next! There is no one else available in the same class who comes close to any of these four. Shame on you Falvine!!

Nice read, Nick! Why the FO has waited this long to sign a "closer" when our current bullpen so obviously needs one, is mystifying. They have the money to overpay if necessary and any one of the three remaining candidates, Kimbrel, Ottavino, or Allen, would in all likelihood be far better than anyone we had last year and certainly yards ahead of our current roster. Their desire to wait for the market to come to them incurs the huge risk that one of the big boys(Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc.) will swoop in and grab these three. Where would that leave Twin prospects in 2019? My personal preference is Ottavino over Allen, mainly because of the risk that Allen's arm is used up, perhaps similar to Reed's. The Sox grabbed Herrera for two years at $8MM/yr. We should have done that! While Ottavino has really only excelled one year, and that was not as a closer, he appears to have the stuff to be a dominant closer for 2-3 years. A three year contract at $8-10MM/yr would not break the bank and allow some of our more inexperienced relievers to settle gradually into a back end bullpen role. With that said, if Ottavino is simply not interested in coming to the Twin Cities(he is a Brooklyn-bred boy), then a two year contract for Allen would be a very suitable substitution, at similar numbers. Why this FO is so passive this offseason(one FA signing! one!!) is a real mystery. I can only surmise they do not feel the Twins are legitimate contenders this year, despite being in the weakest division in the league. Well, the way this offseason is developing, looks like that non-contention will be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Ted, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Your strategy of throwing relatively untested "closers" like Reed, Parker, et.al. against the wall in the hope they become elite closers might be justifiable for rebuilding teams(although even the non-contending W. Sox have signed two players - Colome and Herrera - who would slot ahead of anyone currently in the Twins bullpen based on past records). But for a team with serious intentions to contend, they must at least start the season with a set closer - and better yet, a shutdown bullpen for innings 7, 8 and 9. You only need to look at recent WSeries contestants to see teams that have a fixed closer with at least one top setup man. LA, Houston, Boston, the Cubs. The Brewers surprising run last year was not due to the strength of the rotation, but to a shutdown bullpen. The yankees are going all in this offseason by now having a bullpen with 3-4 shutdown relievers. For teams with serious intentions, you don't start the year with a hope and a prayer. So this argument revolves around the question : does this FO believe this team can be serious contenders in 2019? All evidence so far points to a loud no(or a weak maybe). Relying on three DFA pickups is not a bad strategy if they are just fill-ins, like Parker surely is. Maybe one of them will surprise and actually turn into a key contributor. But for now, this FO is more treading water than going for an eminently winnable AL Central Title. No, the offseson is not over, but based on activity to date, the Wonder Boys have given us fans little reason to think we are a contending team in 2019. If we go into the season with the bullpen as constituted, look out below!

Ted, if we are going into the year with "no more important player than Reed", that is a damning indictment of the FO. It is a must for a potential contender to start the season with a proven closer; otherwise, they can dig an early hole for themselves not only in the standings, but in the dugout. Not signing a proven closer is an abdication of the FO's responsibilities to the fans and team, pure and simple, but right now that is the state of the Twins entering the second week of January with the top FA closers going elsewhere(assuming Kimbrel is out of reach). This inaction is simply unacceptable to a fan base that has been patiently waiting almost a decade for a return to relevance.

Stop the presses!! Blake Parker is now a Twin. Of the 5 new players added, only Cruz was a FA; the others were all DFA pickups. On a decidedly mediocre LA staff, Parker was DFA'd. Now the offseason is about adding filler players, as well as improving the roster. Taking a flyer on Cron, Schoup, Torres or Parker is certainly a legitimate offseason option. But to count on all four to contribute in a big way is simply foolhardy. The Twins bullpen is unsettled at best with no clear closer. Parker will most certainly not be that person. To rely on Reed, May or Romero is a sure recipe for digging a deep hole early in the year. Remember Ron Davis. Nothing demoralizes a team as blowing late inning leads. Nothing!! With the number of FA closers dwindling to the unaffordable(Kimbrel) or more the hope and prayer type(Cody Allen, Greg Holland,et.al) there's not much left, I'm afraid. Sure the Twins could get lucky but isn't that what the FO is supposed to do in the offseason? Fill the obvious holes to elevate team performance, not rely on hopes and prayers. If the Sox could find money to sign Herrera, why do the Twins settle for the bargain basement? Totally bizarre, enough to throw real doubt on the true abilities of the Wonder Boys.

Doc, I hear you! We'll never know if Falvine was in on Robertson, but they could have offered more $ and the closer's role - something he's not getting in Philly! Giving the FO a break, maybe Robertson's three seasons here in Chicago and the cold, made the east coast too tempting to pass ....but Philadelphia!!! C'mon. The good news is that Neshek and Hunter are now expendable! The Twins probably couldn't resist another one year value-driven deal if the Phils contributed some $. This type of addition, IMO, is now much likelier than Ottavino(a Brooklyn boy, btw) or Herrera who I think is the lowest risk, best value left among the remaining FAs. But he is just too logical for the Wonder Boys to grab. They are more interested in showing the baseball world how clever they are in grabbing a diamond in the rough no one else ever considered. Ah, hubris!! Don't you love it.

Robertson just signed by Phillies for 2 yrs/$23MM!! A very reasonable contract, even for the Twins. Now the FA reliever market will accelerate. Yanks reportedly all in on Britton(good - they can have him!!). If this FO is serious about a substantial bullpen upgrade, they better be on the phone with Ottavino's and Herrera's agents. IMO, pretty steep dropoff after that(assuming Kimbrel is a lost cause). After these three, and perhaps Allen, not much closer material left. And please, please, please ........ no more talk of Romero in the bullpen. He is arguably the only near term minor league starter with front-of-the-rotation potential!

Thanks guys for all the great ideas. They have certainly crystallized my thinking into stating a few preferences for the bullpen: -Initially I,too, preferred the two FA signings of the "second tier", Ottavino and Herrera, at the top. Spreads the risk a bit more and more importantly, allows for Twins' internal parts to develop under less pressure. Just too worried about Roger's overuse last year, Reed's injury and his falloff on return, May's long injury history and Hildy's miserable flop as a closer. -But reconsidering the above, put me down for the signing of Robertson to slot into the closer's role immediately. A closer is the Twins real need going forward and I have the most confidence in Robertson. Two year contract would be fine, but a 3 year one, if ncessary, should be made available by a FO wanting to stabilize this bullpen for more than one year. It will probably take an overpay to induce Robertson to the TC, but he's worth it, IMO. He has maintained a high K/9 which is the surest sign of a successful closer. Herrera's late season injury , and Ottavino's erratic year-to-year performance, makes me hesitate on these two(maybe one can be counted on but two is a crap shoot so picking one of thetwo to be the closer could be risky). Of course, if a miracle occurred and the Twins could ink both these guys, all the better. I just don't think this FO has the b...ls for this move. So add Robertson, maybe one outlier from Chris's list and I'll take my chances with the rest of the pen. I think we can all agree, however, that if the FO does none of this, we're looking forward to another year of treading water. Should be an interesting six weeks before ST! Go Twins!!

Chris, appreciate your comments. To respond: 1. The Giants should trade Baumgartner given their aging roster, declining performances, and very tough division. Whether their new GM will be so inclined is another question. From reports I read, chances are more likely of him moving at trade deadline rather than now. Still, it's worth the phone call. 2. Greinke represents a twofold problem: his large contract($30MM/year over next three years) and his no-trade clause. Still, depending on how much $ the Dbacks throw back, the loss of prospects would not be nearly as steep as for a Thor or Wheeler and what good is our "stacked farm system" if we don't use it? Greinke is, like Baumgartner, a long shot, but if the Twins brass truly wants a contending team this year, they have to take a good shot at one of these guys. 3. Keuchel, while not costing prospects, would cost a high draft choice. More importantly, he seems to be holding out for a 5year contract at probably somewhere near $20MM a year. For a "midmarket" Pohlad-owned team, this is simply too high a price to pay long term, especially with the impending need to sign some of our own core to long term contracts. He slipped badly last year and thus, I would vote a strong no unless his asking price drops considerably. 4. Likewise, a big no on Gonzales who at 33 has a diminished FB reportedly not topping 90mph. He is a lefty and can probably fall within the Twins budget but for a lower ranked starter, I'd rather put my money into the bullpen. We have enough internal candidates for the #4/5 rotational positions. It's a #1(and probably#2) starter the team sorely lacks - almost a necessity for going deep into the playoffs. 5. Rolling the dice on someone younger like Bundy might be a play but why would a rebuilding Oriole team jettison him? It would take a haul of our best prospects, probably including a Lewis or Kirillof, to snare him. With Bundy's ERA never breaking 4.00(and last year at 5.45), he's not worth the risk of decimating our top prospect list. Now if a top package of prospects could fetch a Snell or Snydergaard, I'm all for it!! This whole discussion is probably a moot point, as I'm afraid our new FO is as risk adverse as the old one(except in mid-summer starter-for-prospect trades). They've filled some holes but even these fillers come with big question marks, adding to the many other questions in our lineup and staffs. I just think we have to reconcile ourselves to another year of wait and see. Ugh!!

Assuming the Twins have "limited" funds this offseason, my preference is to address their biggest need, the bullpen, first. Hopefully, this would result in signing one of the proven closers or two of the second tier of FA's. The value of adding a #3, 4 or 5 starter is highly doubtful, IMO. They already have enough of those and the southpaw Mejia is most likely to fill the lefty role as a #5 starter. What the FO should be doing, if they were to go all in, is to find a starter to slot in ahead of Berrios, Gibson, et. al. This would entail a trade that would result in trading some real assets. For a young, controllable pitcher like one of the Mets big four, yes, Lewis or Kirillof, would have to be part of any trade, along with someone like Kepler and a couple of our top rated minor league pitchers, perhaps. Since the likelihood of that ever happening is remote, I would turn to a short term solution like Greinke or Baumgartner for the next year or two. Both Arizona and the Giants are in a rebuild mode and would be much more willing to accept far less than it would take to get one of the Mets' top starters. If the Twins could add such a potential "ace", along with the aforementioned bullpen upgrade, the 2019 Twins would look like a genuine contender, not a pretender. Any bets on whether this scenario enfolds?

So now that the home town nine have apparently filled their glaring lineup holes, our thoughts (and hopefully Flavines') should be turning to the 2019 bullpen. Let's examine the team's options: 1. Stand pat and hope there are enough internal options to build a reasonably effective pen. This is not as far fetched as one might think, given the performance of Rogers in 2018, the re-emergence of May after two injury-plagued years, a healthy Addison Reed, and a well-rested Hildenberger who hopefully can snap back from a woeful second half performance last year. Add in some other potential dependable arms like Magill, Moya, and Vasquez and on paper this could be an improved pen in 2019. Throw Romero into a late inning role and the possibilities for a much improved bullpen are enhanced. 2. Go for the best proven closer on the FA market and call it a day. Any of the three top candidates - Kimbrel, Britton, or Robertson - would immediately step in as the closer. Although not risk free, each would represent a sizable upgrade over last season's opening day closer, Rodney, and give all Twins fans the confidence that the FO has taken a significant step forward towards contention. Looking at each of these three, Kimbrel seems to be out of reach given his six year contract demands. As good as he is, investing big sums in a reliever does not make a lot of sense for a team with as many question marks as this one still has. Robertson would represent the best investment assuming a maximum 3 year contract. Britton with his injury history would probably represent the highest risk, but has a huge upside. The Twins can afford to splurge here if they have to. The question is : will they? 3. The Twins can set their sights lower and go for one or two lower-priced FAs who while not proven closers would still likely be a significant upgrade. Ottavino, Allen, and Herrera are the cream of the crop in this second tier. Chad Allen is a risk after a poor 2018 stint, but this falloff would lower the price enough for the Twins to afford another of his caliber. Herrera and/or Ottavino would appear light years ahead of any current Twins bullpen denizen. Signing any two of this group would send a clear signal to ther team and fans that this organization is serious about contending in 2019 at a cost not much more than $20MM/year for two. So which of these three categories would you select? The Twins have certainly strengthened their offense in the offseason. A rebound season by either Buxton or Sano would be another big step towards competing in the Central, at the very least. The rotation, while not spectacular, looks like it could be pretty solid if things break right. Only the bullpen is shaky and the pieces are there in free agency to fix this hole. Just a matter of FO resolve. If they just nibble at the edges here, it would be a sure indicator they are not serious about contention in 2019.

If Kep’s a below average player, then why are so many teams interested in him?? Simultaneously, why trade Kep if he’s about to breakout?? And why attach Romero and Lewis to the very same deal?? This is the why I’m not a fan of trading for “Thor,” because they’ll “undervalue” guys like Kepler and Romero, but overvalue Syndergaard to the point where Lewis is has to be included. In other words, I think other teams are trying to rip us off, and why wouldn’t they?? I just hope the FO doesn’t fall for it. Chris, as one who advocated going all in for Thor( I actually proposed a trade including Sano, Kepler and one of our catchers - not Lewis or Kirillof), I must admit that it would be much harder to include Kepler rather than Sano. I say this because of all the tantalizing improvements Max seems to make, together with his lack of playing time before signing. Sano on the other hand, while showing flashes of greatness, carries too heavy a burden in terms of temperament, character and lack of conditioning to be able to count on as a core member of a contending club. But the real issue is how the trade partner values each player. No real way of knowing. I included both Sano and Kepler only because each is unproven as a potential all star and short of giving up one of our two uber-prospects, these two are the most likely major-league - ready players we have. Sure they would leave holes in an already porous lineup but to get an ace pitcher you must give up quality. While the Donaldson ship has already sailed, there are some 3B replacements on the FA market and even more for the corner outfield position. Yes, it would take boldness to trade two of our "starters" but a Syndergaard does not become available every offseason. As it turns out, the Mets' likelihood of trading Thor has diminished since the first flurry of rumors, so perhaps this whole topic is a moot point, but if a #1 or #2 starter can be pried loose(and signed to a long term deal), this FO should be making an all-out effort to complete such a trade. Aces don't come along often but when they do, a contending organization must take the risk(see Boston/Sale and Houston/Verlander). Why not the Twins?

Ted, always enjoy your articles - one of main reasons I'm a daily visitor to this site. But when I read the headline "Replicating Relief Success....", I thought this was a tongue-in-cheek headline. Do you really believe the Twinkies have been successful in developing relievers? C'mon!! This area has been one of the biggest failures of Twins teams, especially in 2011 - today. Last year we added three FA relievers and this year we should add another three from outside. With the sole exception of Rogers, this organization has utterly failed top develop shutdown relievers(and even Rogers has not had sustained success especially as a late-inning reliever). Hildy was absolutely a disaster last uyear, particularly in pressure situations) and May's "success" was very limited (26 IP in 2018). The rest of the bullpen is just middle inning filler material, at best. The list of failed draftees for the bullpen over the past decade is as long as my arm: Reed, Chargois, Duffy, Jay, Bard, et.al. Do you really think Kohl Stewart is the answer with his 92mph fastball and mediocre success in the minors? For the Twins to have a chance for even a decent bullpen, I think everyone sees the need for two top FA closers this offseason to slot ahead of Rogers and Reed. Even then, this is not a championship-caliber bullpen. It is disheartening how badly Ryan and company failed to develop any pitching despite having many high draft choices. And falvine has gone after positionn players in their two drafts, understandably, considering past disappointments from the Ryan era. Still, as things stand today, does anyone see an ace-in-the-making in the minors? Judging from the rankings, only Graterol seems possible and he has an awful long way to go. Hate to be such a pessimist here, but past performance in this organization provides little hope that difference-making relievers are on the way from the minors, especially not the likes of Kohl Stewart.

And that's the problem, Vanimal. This new FO seems totally adverse to trades. Other than the Odorizzi transaction, in which the Rays were clearly in a dumping mode, this FO has shown no imagination or risk taking to engage in meaningful trades - IN TWO FULL YEARS! Why is that? This offseason would be a good time to change this pattern, given the improvement in the Minor League system, together with a dearth of FA building blocks in the Twins price range(that's a whole other column, btw). To date, the FO this offseason has followed a pattern of picking up DFA players on one year contracts in the hopes they rebound to previous heights. Not a bad strategy if you have some bona fide lineup studs to build around. That not being the case, the Twins are obviously counting on rebounds from their tattered core plus these new one year signees. Isn't this like drawing to an inside straight? What it isn't, is a recipe for moving into playoff contention. Granted, the offseason isn't over. I fully expect the Twins to add a couple of bullpen options and maybe an OF/DH type and/or a #4 or #5 rotation filler, but will any of this really move the needle in 2019? Very, very doubtful and with the division seemingl;y more competitive, together with the Twins' payroll space and quantity of tradable minor leaguers, this conservatism on the part of Falvine is truly inexplicable. It sure would be nice to see some transparency by ownership and Falvey what their long range plan is here because so far it seems they have none - other than muddling thru.

Here's the thing that I already know is going to irritate the hell out of me... Even IF you want to accept that uncertainty over Buxton/Sano means you're not going to shell out money for any of the top free agents (which certainly is worthy of debate, but for the moment let's go along with it), the fact that you have all that money coming off the books means that AT LEAST you don't have to wait out the market and be satisfied with signing the guys still available in February. Yes, a lot of teams played that card last year and maybe even more will wait the market out this year. But because the Twins have way more payroll flexibility this year than virtually anyone else in MLB, they can afford to take the risk that they're going to "overpay" by some moderate amount to get the "best of the rest" in that tier below the really expensive guys. While the big spending teams are focused on the top FAs and the teams with budget issues are waiting for the market to shake out so they can pick up the guys who are still looking for jobs in February, the Twins could be getting their pick of the tier of players just below the big money guys. The FO should be identifying exactly who they feel are the best fits for their needs, based on whatever magic algorithms they've decided they like, and then go get those guys early, even though they would have to pay a little more than they would if they played the waiting game again. With so much money arguably available, there's no reason to pinch pennies all the way into February/March again. Well said, Mr. Buhr! If the Twins were serious about contending in 2019, they needed to identify their holes, fill them speedily before the market shakes out, and not wait for the annual Twins' dumpster dive. Their holes are glaring, no doubt. Bullpen, one ace starter(at least), 1B, 2B(or SS), DH/cleanup hitter . One obvious target was Davidson(arguably the best hitter in FA other than Harper/Machado) for cleanup hitter. Cruz for DH seems like the best DH around. Together these two would have given the lineup the needed significant boost. Instead, the Twins sign a highly mediocre filler in Cron. Why? Because he was DFA, so an easy grab. I, too, am afraid the FO will play around the edges again, seeking bargains - in a year where the Twins easily have $50+MM to add to payroll. They also have an ability, if not the desire, to land an ace in the form of Thor(or lesser, Wheeler) if they were motivated. But all indications are they will not strike quickly and that is perplexing when Cleveland is retrenching and the rest of the Division is a year or two away from contention. Why not now! It is likely that either Sano or Buxton will rebound to 2017 values(no, probably not both), that the Twins have a pretty good #2-#5 rotation, and some good above average major leaguers in Polanco, Garver, Rosario and hopefully, Kepler. Yes, some ifs but with the right risk-taking, it is easy to see this team more competitive next year. They have money to spend, tradable assets in a strong minor league system, and a decent, albeit not overpowering , core of young players. There is simply no excuse for the FO to sit back and wait for bargains. They have the means to strike; unfortunately, the will seems to be missing!

Given what’s out there however, none of the necessary additions can simply be band-aids. Whether or not the front-office goes for it in 2019 or beginning in 2020 doesn’t much matter. This club needs an impact bat in the worst way and skimping on that should draw ire from the fan base. Ted, couldn't have said it better! This team has so many holes now that it would almost be like drawing to an inside straight to expect the team to be a legitimate playoff contender next year. But try they must, given the state of the division, the likely decline of the Indians, a decent core, and most importantly, a surfeit of money. Much has been said about the need for, not one, but at least two outside late-inning relievers who should, at least going into the season, above their two best current relievers, Rodgers and May. This need can easily be addressed by a couple of shrewd free agent signings from a particularly deep crop this year(only a cautionary note: go for proven quality, not potential rebound candidates). Assuming the FO can get that done, they should move on to filling glaring offense needs, mainly lack of both impact hitters and good OBP players. Openings exist at DH, !B, 2b/SS, and 3B(Sano cannot be assumed to bounce back given his poor lack of self control). The OF and C positions should hardly be priorities unless Kepler heading a package for a top starter is necessary(Buxton's fielding prowess makes him a keeper, at least for the first 2-3 months of the season). So your list presents some attractive candidates. I would be delighted to snare two of Donaldson, Cruz, or Santana - but two would be a minimum in an ideal world. Since up the middle defense is important, I might sacrifice a little offense, but not much. Marwin Gonzales or Addison Russell would lead the list to fill the SS position. These three new players would put a real jolt in an anemic Twins' lineup and would act as a bridge to the Twins next round of prospe cts for 2020-21. Should either Sano or Buxton mature, all the better, but at least we wouldn't be counting on them to move forward offensively. The topping on this offseason has to be at least one addition who would supplant Berrios as our #1 starter. There are some trade candidates who surely must be looked at,e.g., Baumgartner, Greinke, Matz, Wheeler. Yes, there is some risk in this list, but the Twins have the minor league depth now, along with one of our major league starters(Sano or Kepler) to appeal to a rebuilding team like the Mets, Giants or Dbacks to get a trade done. Completion of the above scenario is within the realm of possibility and with a new energetic manager and coaching staff, would be enough to bring back the franchise into relevance again. Failure to do this will only keep the Twins treading water and wait for the next round of prospects. That hope has been dashed too many times to believe it is a viable path anymore. If this is a really dynamic FO, they need to show more resolve in building a winner in an offseason that offers so much promise.

I, too, have been divided on the FO's acumen. With a glut of well-regarded pitching coaches on the market last year, the wonder boys reached way down and picked Alston, who seemed to be treading water in his coaching career with no sign of progressive advancement. It seemed like sheer hubris to me that they bypassed someone like Mike Maddox for an untested guy like Alston. The fact he lasted only one year somewhat seems like a FO concession to a mistake. Now they go totally outside the box and select a college pitching coach without any prior MLB experience. Is this another sign of Falvey being too smart for his own good again? Strangely enough, I sort of like this pick. It shows a real willingness to roll the dice and go with someone brand new with perhaps a refreshing new outlook that might change the long term failures in the organization. Here's hoping they drew the brass ring on this one, because if not, you can pretty much kiss Falvey and his five year plan goodbye. But sometimes, a big risk can pay off. In this case, we'll just have to wait and see. But there is one caveat here. The FO must give the new manager and coaches more to work with in 2019. The needs in the bullpen are glaringly obvious: at least two veteran late inning relievers are a must. With plenty of payroll space and a strong FA class, there is simply no excuse available if they don't fill these holes. And while the rotation seems to have stabilized with the emergence of Berrios and Gibson, there is no way theTwins can legitimately compete in 2019 without adding at least one "ace" to this staff. While FA starters(Corbin, Keuchel) are out of the Twins' payroll reach, there are some trade candidates who are available, including Greinke, Baumgartner(maybe) and perhaps either Wheeler or Matz from the Mets. Assuming the Twins agressively go after at least 2-3 offensive improvements in FA, they should have surplus to pull off such a trade with Sano or Kepler being likely trade bait, along with our strong minor league prospect list. Yes, there is still the possibility the FO has already decided to sit back and wait for Sano and Buxton to establish themselves(or not) in 2019, but if so, they are greatly lessening the chance for success by the new manager and coaches.

Levine told Hayes that if Sano and Buxton take a step forward “I think we have primed ownership to then give us the green light to take more of an aggressive step forward with this unit of players.” We’ll see how the offseason unfolds, but that quote leads me to believe there’s going to be more of a holding pattern this upcoming season. That they'll wait for a Sano/Buxton breakout before really getting aggressive. That’s the last thing I want to see. Be buyers or sellers. You’re either in or you’re out. No more middle ground In an offseason totally devoid of action, we Twin fans are forced to grasp at straws and as Tom points out, this is perhaps a sign of the 2018/2019 offseason. While some fans may see this as the "prudent,low-risk" approach, to the rest of us, this would truly be a wasted opportunity and an indictment of Falvey and company . Consider: 1. With an estimated payroll of about $70-75 MM going into the offseason, the Twins have close to that much money to spend. Why should it be saved for future years, especially when the best team in the division seems to by possibly retrenching, the rest of the division is a ways from being competitive, and the Twins despite many disappointments in 2018, were only 6 games below .500. 2. The Twins have built up enough depth in their minor league system to trade at least some of their top prospects for established major leaguers, particularly in the rotation. After all, as we know from bitter experience, many of these "prospects" will never advance beyond that status. 3. Waiting until midseason to see how Sano/Buxton perform is a sure-fire prescription for mediocrity. The Twins can hope that at least Buxton rises to his 2017 WAR level, solidifying the OF defense, and that Sano can easily be replaced with a FA player. If both Sano and Buxton bounce back, so muct the better - the Twins could advance from contender for a WC spot to genuine playoff threat. What's wrong with being "too deep" in quality players? Treading water in the offseason waiting for the 2019 season to unfold is an unacceptable middling position unworthy of the FO whiz kids and long-suffering Twin fans. This passivity that Levine seems to demonstrate in the above quote smacks too much of Ryanism and all the mediocrity that brought one playoff victory in the last 18 years!!). I, for one, would be outraged if Levine backs up these words with the corresponding inaction his words imply.