Ted Schwerzler
-
Posts
5,149 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Reputation Activity
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from sampleSizeOfOne for a blog entry, The Twins Silver Lining Is Coming
It's the first week of August, the Twins have fallen out of a Wild Card spot, and they remain just one game over .500. Considering how the year started, that's a less than ideal scenario, but knowing how it was projected to end, they find themselves in a good spot. What's better is that with the way the final two months appear to be shaping up, there's even more reason to anticipate 2016.
With plenty of baseball left, there's not much reason to write off the Twins. Sure, they aren't going to make the playoffs, but there's competitive and meaningful baseball taking place at Target Field in August and September, that's huge. Going forward though, it's the opportunities provided to manager Paul Molitor over the final two months that will bolster the Twins in 2016.
I have been a championing the fact that Aaron Hicks has been ready for quite a while. The cornerstone of that argument has been the path he has recently been on. After being promoted too early from Double-A due to a stellar spring training a few years ago, it was his time in Double and Triple-A to end last year that showed he was a new player. Getting his feet wet slowly helped immensely, and that's where the Twins find themselves at once again.
Miguel Sano has already spent over 25 games with the big league club. He's has held his own slashing .278/.411/.522 with five home runs and 12 extra base hits. Going forward, the next couple of months will be big for Sano to hit the ground running in 2016. Hitters have failed to get on ahead of him of late, allowing opposing pitchers to throw him offspeed stuff away and out of the zone. Sano has shown good plate discipline (38/21 K/BB), but being able to have more opportunities to swing away will only further his development. The time at the big league level will no doubt have Sano entering 2016 brimming with confidence.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Byron Buxton has taken his lumps with the Twins. He played just 11 games before hitting the DL with a thumb injury. In those games, he slashed .189/.231/.270. Buxton is being afforded a great opportunity however. With an upcoming rehab stint scheduled to take place at Triple-A Rochester, he will face pitchers more able to "pitch" and spin balls, than those at Double-A capable of blowing it by hitters. Likely spending September with the Twins, Buxton will then be able to work through some struggles to better prepare for the upcoming season.
Then there's the benefit that comes with expanded rosters. At the end of August, Minnesota can utilize up to 40 roster spots, and while they won't be bringing that many players up, there's a few worthy inclusions.
It would stand to reason that both Kennys Vargas and Oswaldo Arcia could be given another chance to end the season. Unlike the path Aaron Hicks took though in which he produced following a demotion in 2014, neither Vargas nor Arcia has been any good. Vargas is slashing .240/.363/.423 at Double-A Chattanooga. Arcia had a nice run of eight home runs, but owns a .232/.291/.420 slash line with 59 K and just 15 walks.
More importantly in September will be the call ups that expect to figure prominently into the 2016 plans. With next season being the opening of the window in the "go for it" timespan, getting key cogs feet wet would make a lot of sense. Included amongst that group would almost have to be Jose Berrios and Max Kepler. Had Zack Jones, Nick Burdi, and Jake Reed not struggled this season, they may be included as well.
Berrios has strung together a handful of nice starts at Triple-A and should be considered for the rotation in 2016. He owns a 2.00 ERA across his last 4 starts (27.0 IP) and should have a couple more under his belt before the end of August. A cup of coffee in the form of a spot start would make a ton of sense.
With the outfield no doubt going to be shuffled in 2016 (Torii Hunter moving to a part time role and the likely spot cleared by Shane Robinson being a free agent), there's going to be a competition for final spots. Max Kepler has batted .330/.412/.540 in 82 games for Double-A Chattanooga and is clearly ready for his next challenge. There would be no better way to get him geared up for the MLB level than to include him in games at the end of this season. Kepler looks the part, and allowing him to prove it could be beneficial.
Minnesota could also look at some lesser relief options. Guys like Logan Darnell, Michael Tonkin, Mark Hamburger, and A.J. Achter could all find their way to the big leagues. Each of them has pitched well for the most part in 2015, and could give the Twins some extended evaluation time at the big league level should they appear in September.
At the end of the year, Minnesota looks poised to finish right where they ought to be. They will be somewhere around second or third in the division, and within a few games either way of the .500 mark. Sure, that's a far cry from how things started, but it's a significant improvement and exactly how you take the next step forward. Pushing forward players that could prove instrumental in a year is something the Twins have the opportunity to do, so the next two months still hold plenty of weight.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from nytwinsfan for a blog entry, The Twins Silver Lining Is Coming
It's the first week of August, the Twins have fallen out of a Wild Card spot, and they remain just one game over .500. Considering how the year started, that's a less than ideal scenario, but knowing how it was projected to end, they find themselves in a good spot. What's better is that with the way the final two months appear to be shaping up, there's even more reason to anticipate 2016.
With plenty of baseball left, there's not much reason to write off the Twins. Sure, they aren't going to make the playoffs, but there's competitive and meaningful baseball taking place at Target Field in August and September, that's huge. Going forward though, it's the opportunities provided to manager Paul Molitor over the final two months that will bolster the Twins in 2016.
I have been a championing the fact that Aaron Hicks has been ready for quite a while. The cornerstone of that argument has been the path he has recently been on. After being promoted too early from Double-A due to a stellar spring training a few years ago, it was his time in Double and Triple-A to end last year that showed he was a new player. Getting his feet wet slowly helped immensely, and that's where the Twins find themselves at once again.
Miguel Sano has already spent over 25 games with the big league club. He's has held his own slashing .278/.411/.522 with five home runs and 12 extra base hits. Going forward, the next couple of months will be big for Sano to hit the ground running in 2016. Hitters have failed to get on ahead of him of late, allowing opposing pitchers to throw him offspeed stuff away and out of the zone. Sano has shown good plate discipline (38/21 K/BB), but being able to have more opportunities to swing away will only further his development. The time at the big league level will no doubt have Sano entering 2016 brimming with confidence.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Byron Buxton has taken his lumps with the Twins. He played just 11 games before hitting the DL with a thumb injury. In those games, he slashed .189/.231/.270. Buxton is being afforded a great opportunity however. With an upcoming rehab stint scheduled to take place at Triple-A Rochester, he will face pitchers more able to "pitch" and spin balls, than those at Double-A capable of blowing it by hitters. Likely spending September with the Twins, Buxton will then be able to work through some struggles to better prepare for the upcoming season.
Then there's the benefit that comes with expanded rosters. At the end of August, Minnesota can utilize up to 40 roster spots, and while they won't be bringing that many players up, there's a few worthy inclusions.
It would stand to reason that both Kennys Vargas and Oswaldo Arcia could be given another chance to end the season. Unlike the path Aaron Hicks took though in which he produced following a demotion in 2014, neither Vargas nor Arcia has been any good. Vargas is slashing .240/.363/.423 at Double-A Chattanooga. Arcia had a nice run of eight home runs, but owns a .232/.291/.420 slash line with 59 K and just 15 walks.
More importantly in September will be the call ups that expect to figure prominently into the 2016 plans. With next season being the opening of the window in the "go for it" timespan, getting key cogs feet wet would make a lot of sense. Included amongst that group would almost have to be Jose Berrios and Max Kepler. Had Zack Jones, Nick Burdi, and Jake Reed not struggled this season, they may be included as well.
Berrios has strung together a handful of nice starts at Triple-A and should be considered for the rotation in 2016. He owns a 2.00 ERA across his last 4 starts (27.0 IP) and should have a couple more under his belt before the end of August. A cup of coffee in the form of a spot start would make a ton of sense.
With the outfield no doubt going to be shuffled in 2016 (Torii Hunter moving to a part time role and the likely spot cleared by Shane Robinson being a free agent), there's going to be a competition for final spots. Max Kepler has batted .330/.412/.540 in 82 games for Double-A Chattanooga and is clearly ready for his next challenge. There would be no better way to get him geared up for the MLB level than to include him in games at the end of this season. Kepler looks the part, and allowing him to prove it could be beneficial.
Minnesota could also look at some lesser relief options. Guys like Logan Darnell, Michael Tonkin, Mark Hamburger, and A.J. Achter could all find their way to the big leagues. Each of them has pitched well for the most part in 2015, and could give the Twins some extended evaluation time at the big league level should they appear in September.
At the end of the year, Minnesota looks poised to finish right where they ought to be. They will be somewhere around second or third in the division, and within a few games either way of the .500 mark. Sure, that's a far cry from how things started, but it's a significant improvement and exactly how you take the next step forward. Pushing forward players that could prove instrumental in a year is something the Twins have the opportunity to do, so the next two months still hold plenty of weight.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from beckmt for a blog entry, Struggles Have Highlighted Twins Correct Deadline Decision
The calendar has flipped to August, the Minnesota Twins are now 51-51 just three games above .500, and the problems are mounting. Every indication suggests that the Twins did absolutely the right thing at the trade deadline. As they slip out of sole possession of a wild card spot, Terry Ryan has a new period of evaluation coming.
For much of the season, the Twins were a team playing well above water. With an extremely impressive home record, while staving off regression, Minnesota distanced themselves from the pack. As it generally does, baseball has begun to shift back towards a statistical normalcy and the Twins have felt the squeeze.
Since the All Star Break, Minnesota is just 5-11. In those 16 games, the Twins offense has scored an average of 3.4 runs per game while surrendering 5.2 runs per game. Their bullpen has all but imploded, most obviously on the back end (Glen Perkins owns an 11.12 ERA since the break). The Twins offense has gone in the tank, and the winning has hit the skids. In their last three losses, Minnesota has scored just one run in each contest.
To say this was predictable is probably not unfair. Minnesota has a plethora of pitchers with inflated FIP (fielding independent pitching) marks and strong ERA's (in fact, acquired reliever Kevin Jepsen is among them). They have also seen a boost in the offense from unlikely sources such as Aaron Hicks (who has been incredibly hot), Eddie Rosario (who's been consistent), and Miguel Sano (who surprisingly has hit for average). At the root of the struggles though is that the Twins have watched it all come crashing down at the same time.
Blaine Boyer (3.02 ERA 4.28 FIP, still some regression to come) and Casey Fien (4.19 ERA 4.14 FIP) have started to even out, J.R. Graham has been knocked around (9.00 ERA in his last 8.0 IP), and we already touched on Perkins struggles. Joe Mauer (.255/.317/.327), Torii Hunter (.204/.246/.370), and Brian Dozier (.217/.299/.450) have all slumped since the break. Starting pitching hasn't been great, and Tommy Milone (7.98 ERA in 142. IP since ASG) is now headed to the DL.
Terry Ryan is watching as each of the potential problem areas for the Twins rears it's head at once. In that, he can find solace in knowing he absolutely did the right thing at the trade deadline. Fixing the bullpen, offense, and need positions all at once without jumping the gun wasn't a realistic possibility. In a difficult test of patience, that is now paying dividends.
Staying put for the most part (aside from dealing for Jepsen who provides team control going forward), allows the Twins to continue along a realistic path. Despite being in position to grab a Wild Card spot, the heat of the summer was sure to sort things out. Regardless of the big moves by the Blue Jays (both David Price and Troy Tulowitzki count as just that), the Twins were going to have to continue to defy their own odds. In not sacrificing the blueprint that has been laid out, the next few years remain incredibly bright for the Twins.
As the 2015 Major League Baseball season rolls on, the Twins still have plenty to gain. Nowhere near out of the playoff race, call ups and seasoning can be provided to young and integral players in the midst of meaningful games. With Tyler Duffey paving the way and Jose Berrios likely soon to follow, Minnesota affords young arms a cup of coffee in the middle of real action. Miguel Sano, Hicks, Rosario, and even Byron Buxton can begin to settle into the highest level while competing for something on a nightly basis. In the end, it's the best outcome for everyone.
Going forward, the Twins already had plenty of reason to be realistic playoff contenders immediately in 2016 and onward. Thanks to the decision to hold onto the farm, the Twins should take plenty of valuable lessons and developmental instances away from 2015 even if they don't end up in the playoffs. As 2016 rolls around, they should enter as one of the two best teams in the Central, and the final two months of 2015 baseball will serve as the launching pad for that growth.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Platoon for a blog entry, Struggles Have Highlighted Twins Correct Deadline Decision
The calendar has flipped to August, the Minnesota Twins are now 51-51 just three games above .500, and the problems are mounting. Every indication suggests that the Twins did absolutely the right thing at the trade deadline. As they slip out of sole possession of a wild card spot, Terry Ryan has a new period of evaluation coming.
For much of the season, the Twins were a team playing well above water. With an extremely impressive home record, while staving off regression, Minnesota distanced themselves from the pack. As it generally does, baseball has begun to shift back towards a statistical normalcy and the Twins have felt the squeeze.
Since the All Star Break, Minnesota is just 5-11. In those 16 games, the Twins offense has scored an average of 3.4 runs per game while surrendering 5.2 runs per game. Their bullpen has all but imploded, most obviously on the back end (Glen Perkins owns an 11.12 ERA since the break). The Twins offense has gone in the tank, and the winning has hit the skids. In their last three losses, Minnesota has scored just one run in each contest.
To say this was predictable is probably not unfair. Minnesota has a plethora of pitchers with inflated FIP (fielding independent pitching) marks and strong ERA's (in fact, acquired reliever Kevin Jepsen is among them). They have also seen a boost in the offense from unlikely sources such as Aaron Hicks (who has been incredibly hot), Eddie Rosario (who's been consistent), and Miguel Sano (who surprisingly has hit for average). At the root of the struggles though is that the Twins have watched it all come crashing down at the same time.
Blaine Boyer (3.02 ERA 4.28 FIP, still some regression to come) and Casey Fien (4.19 ERA 4.14 FIP) have started to even out, J.R. Graham has been knocked around (9.00 ERA in his last 8.0 IP), and we already touched on Perkins struggles. Joe Mauer (.255/.317/.327), Torii Hunter (.204/.246/.370), and Brian Dozier (.217/.299/.450) have all slumped since the break. Starting pitching hasn't been great, and Tommy Milone (7.98 ERA in 142. IP since ASG) is now headed to the DL.
Terry Ryan is watching as each of the potential problem areas for the Twins rears it's head at once. In that, he can find solace in knowing he absolutely did the right thing at the trade deadline. Fixing the bullpen, offense, and need positions all at once without jumping the gun wasn't a realistic possibility. In a difficult test of patience, that is now paying dividends.
Staying put for the most part (aside from dealing for Jepsen who provides team control going forward), allows the Twins to continue along a realistic path. Despite being in position to grab a Wild Card spot, the heat of the summer was sure to sort things out. Regardless of the big moves by the Blue Jays (both David Price and Troy Tulowitzki count as just that), the Twins were going to have to continue to defy their own odds. In not sacrificing the blueprint that has been laid out, the next few years remain incredibly bright for the Twins.
As the 2015 Major League Baseball season rolls on, the Twins still have plenty to gain. Nowhere near out of the playoff race, call ups and seasoning can be provided to young and integral players in the midst of meaningful games. With Tyler Duffey paving the way and Jose Berrios likely soon to follow, Minnesota affords young arms a cup of coffee in the middle of real action. Miguel Sano, Hicks, Rosario, and even Byron Buxton can begin to settle into the highest level while competing for something on a nightly basis. In the end, it's the best outcome for everyone.
Going forward, the Twins already had plenty of reason to be realistic playoff contenders immediately in 2016 and onward. Thanks to the decision to hold onto the farm, the Twins should take plenty of valuable lessons and developmental instances away from 2015 even if they don't end up in the playoffs. As 2016 rolls around, they should enter as one of the two best teams in the Central, and the final two months of 2015 baseball will serve as the launching pad for that growth.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from jorgenswest for a blog entry, Does It Matter If Twins Hope Fades?
July comes to a close, the Major League Baseball trade deadline passes, and the dust settles. In the wake of it all, the Minnesota Twins are left with a slim lead in the Wild Card race, and a very small margin for error. Hope has to be waning right? But what if that hope is placed in the wrong things, and it doesn't really matter if the Twins fade?
Coming into the season the Twins weren't a realistic postseason contender, they weren't supposed to be here, and this wasn't supposed to be their time. Sure, it would be great to capitalize on a situation after four straight seasons with more than 90 losses, but at the end of the day, perspective must reign supreme. At what cost does competing now come, and does maximizing a current Wild Card spot sacrifice future years? Maybe hope is best placed elsewhere, after all, Paul Molitor's Twins have provided plenty of areas this season.
Maybe most visible of them all is the emergence and development all along. This was coming, and I've been suggesting it for well over the past year. He's put it all together this season though at a rate even I wasn't prepared for. Owning a .299/.364/.437 slash line, and hitting .365/.443/.608 in July and his five home runs are on pace for a new career high. He's been worth 2 DRS (defensive runs saved) and has a 6.1 UZR (ultimate zone rating) as the Twins centerfielder. Even when Byron Buxton shifts him to right field, the Twins have a solid asset at their disposal.
Another young guy has stepped up in a big way. Going into the season, I suggested Eddie Rosario would be the first Twins prospect called up, and that he could go on to have a Danny Santana (2014) like season. He's batting .294/.316/.462 and has caught fire of late batting .393/.393/.679 since July 10. In the field he's been worth 3 DRS and owns a 3.0 UZR as he looks poised to lock down left field for the Twins into the future.
As has been anticipated for many years, Miguel Sano made his big league debut in 2015. So far he's done everything expected of him and then some. Already with three home runs in his first 21 games, he's also hit for average batting .296/.427/.507. More impressively, he's batting .364/.500/.682 against righties, while hitting just .185/.290/.22 against lefties. In the minors this year Sano was better against lefties slashing .299/.405/.597. He's going to crush lefties at the MLB level, so the fact that he's also seeing righties well early is a great development.
Then there's a guy on the big league roster that has continued to prove it. After an impressive 2014, Brian Dozier has looked the part of an MVP candidate in 2105. The first time All Star is hitting .256/.330/.512 with 22 home runs (good for top 15 in the bigs). He's on pace for career highs in doubles, home runs, runs batted in, and runs scored. On pace to be a 5.0+ fWAR player, Dozier has emerged as the best second basemen in the league.
Outside of the 25 man roster, there has been plenty of great development as well. Jose Berrios looks the part of a big league starter right now at Triple-A Rochester. He owns a 1.35 ERA and an 8.1 K/9 across his last three starts. Stephen Gonsalves has followed in the footsteps of Berrios as a fast riser down in Fort Myers, and first round pick Nick Gordon is now getting it done with the bat. It'd be hard to overlook Max Kepler, who's .337 batting average at Double-A Chattanooga is plain silly. Throw in secondary prospects like Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, and Mat Batts, and the Twins are in a better spot than ever.
So that's maybe where the hope is, or should be. Rather than clinging to what the Twins do or don't do at the deadline, or whether they make the playoffs, or whether they fade into September, it's finally a realistic situation to look ahead.
Minnesota should go into 2016 as the clear second best team in the AL Central, trailing only the Royals. Depending on what pieces are added, and who is promoted when, Terry Ryan's organization should see the future as filled with division championships and playoff appearances once again. 2015 has been a lot of fun so far, but if playoff baseball doesn't come to fruition, there's plenty of reason for hope and excitement to thrive where it should be in the first place.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from twinssouth for a blog entry, The Twins Prospect Demanding Your Attention
As the summer draws on and the fall draws near, lots of changes shape the Major League baseball landscape. There's the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and then the August waiver period. There's divisional races, and then there' s September call ups. Despite the Twins strong start, the most exciting period of 2015 may be that call up window, and in part, because of a Twins prospect demanding your attention.
Sure, Jose Berrios is having a good year, Nick Gordon is trending up, and Byron Buxton should be back in the fold. In September though, it should be all about a 22 year old from Germany. Signed as an international free agent, Max Kepler has been playing in the Twins organization since he was 17 years old. He's been talked up almost equally as long.
Maybe not the uber-prospect that fellow international signee Miguel Sano was, Kepler has held his own. After struggling with injury issues early on in his professional career, it's really been the last two seasons that Kepler has put it together.
Spending the entirety of 2014 with High-A Fort Myers, Kepler played in a career high 102 games. In that action, he slashed .264/.333/.393 with 20 doubles, six triples, five home runs and 59 RBI. Any way you cut it, the Twins had to be pleased. As respectable as 2014 was though, it's been 2015 where Kepler has really put his stamp on the organization.
Minnesota decided to allow Kepler to get his feet wet in a few games (six to be exact) near the spring training complex in Fort Myers. Since being shipped off to Double-A Chattanooga, he has been also systems go though. Owning a .331/.414/.529 slash line on the season, it's even more impressive to see how he's hit lately. Sine June 11, Kepler has batted .381/.493/.593 while playing in 33 games and being honored with a selection for the Major League Baseball Future's Game in Cincinnati.
On the year, Kepler has substantiated his success to the tune of 92 hits, 25 doubles, nine triples, four home runs, 44 runs batted in, and a near even 42/39 K/BB ratio. He's split time almost evenly playing 37 games at first base, while being positioned in the outfield 34 times (most often in right). Kepler has been sure with the glove making just two errors in 84 outfield chances as well as two errors in 317 chances at first base.
When looking through the farm system as a whole, and the Twins are well noted as having one of the best in the bigs, you'd be hard pressed to find a more intriguing offensive talent. As the production continues to toe the line of otherworldly, Kepler continues to go about his business and make it look routine.
Minnesota no doubt has it's eyes set on which prospects will be considered for a September cup of coffee, and it's hard to believe Kepler wouldn't be first in line. Already a 40 man roster inclusion, Kepler has all the makings of the ability to push for an opening day spot in 2016. If he continues the run he's currently on, holding him down is something the Twins will find themselves hard pressed to do.
As the wave of players like Sano, Buxton, and Berrios make their way to Target Field, don't make the foolish mistake of forgetting to include the German. Max Kepler appears to be the real deal and he should be getting a shot to prove it sooner rather than later.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from nytwinsfan for a blog entry, The Twins Prospect Demanding Your Attention
As the summer draws on and the fall draws near, lots of changes shape the Major League baseball landscape. There's the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and then the August waiver period. There's divisional races, and then there' s September call ups. Despite the Twins strong start, the most exciting period of 2015 may be that call up window, and in part, because of a Twins prospect demanding your attention.
Sure, Jose Berrios is having a good year, Nick Gordon is trending up, and Byron Buxton should be back in the fold. In September though, it should be all about a 22 year old from Germany. Signed as an international free agent, Max Kepler has been playing in the Twins organization since he was 17 years old. He's been talked up almost equally as long.
Maybe not the uber-prospect that fellow international signee Miguel Sano was, Kepler has held his own. After struggling with injury issues early on in his professional career, it's really been the last two seasons that Kepler has put it together.
Spending the entirety of 2014 with High-A Fort Myers, Kepler played in a career high 102 games. In that action, he slashed .264/.333/.393 with 20 doubles, six triples, five home runs and 59 RBI. Any way you cut it, the Twins had to be pleased. As respectable as 2014 was though, it's been 2015 where Kepler has really put his stamp on the organization.
Minnesota decided to allow Kepler to get his feet wet in a few games (six to be exact) near the spring training complex in Fort Myers. Since being shipped off to Double-A Chattanooga, he has been also systems go though. Owning a .331/.414/.529 slash line on the season, it's even more impressive to see how he's hit lately. Sine June 11, Kepler has batted .381/.493/.593 while playing in 33 games and being honored with a selection for the Major League Baseball Future's Game in Cincinnati.
On the year, Kepler has substantiated his success to the tune of 92 hits, 25 doubles, nine triples, four home runs, 44 runs batted in, and a near even 42/39 K/BB ratio. He's split time almost evenly playing 37 games at first base, while being positioned in the outfield 34 times (most often in right). Kepler has been sure with the glove making just two errors in 84 outfield chances as well as two errors in 317 chances at first base.
When looking through the farm system as a whole, and the Twins are well noted as having one of the best in the bigs, you'd be hard pressed to find a more intriguing offensive talent. As the production continues to toe the line of otherworldly, Kepler continues to go about his business and make it look routine.
Minnesota no doubt has it's eyes set on which prospects will be considered for a September cup of coffee, and it's hard to believe Kepler wouldn't be first in line. Already a 40 man roster inclusion, Kepler has all the makings of the ability to push for an opening day spot in 2016. If he continues the run he's currently on, holding him down is something the Twins will find themselves hard pressed to do.
As the wave of players like Sano, Buxton, and Berrios make their way to Target Field, don't make the foolish mistake of forgetting to include the German. Max Kepler appears to be the real deal and he should be getting a shot to prove it sooner rather than later.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Platoon for a blog entry, The Twins Must Stay The Course
July is coming to an end, and that means that Major League Baseball is being sent into a frenzy with the non-waiver trade deadline fast approaching. For the Twins, this is extra special, because for the first time in four years, they are actually in a position to participate. However, in light of recent events around the AL Central, they absolutely must stay the course and exercise patience.
Over the weekend, the Kansas City Royals made the biggest move of the season. In sending a package highlighted by 2014 first round pick Brandon Finnegan, Kansas City added an ace to their staff in the form of Johnny Cueto. Having to watch struggles from the likes of Yordano Ventura, rely on Chris Young, and see Jason Vargas go down with a torn UCL, the Royals needed to make a move. In doing so, they went out and got the best pitcher available, while positioning themselves for a deep playoff run.
Despite being in the AL Central, and direct competition for the Twins, the Royals move to add Cueto couldn't be further removed from relevance in Minnesota. Prior to the weekend starting, Minnesota was still looking up at the boys in blue, trailing them in the division. Since the Twins relinquished the top of the AL Central early on in the summer, the Royals have held down the spot and separated from the competition.
There's little doubt that Cueto doesn't make the Royals a better team. He owns a 2.62 ERA and a career low 3.13 FIP. He is sitting down batters at an 8.3 K/9 clip while walking on average just 2 batters per nine innings. All of this was done with an outfield defense ranking 15th in the big leagues in DRS (defensive runs saved). Of course he makes the Royals better, but that also isn't the Twins concern.
Just as was the case before Kansas City dealt for the Reds case, the Twins weren't looking up. At this point in the season, if Minnesota is looking to capitalize on their impressive record, they will do so by fending off what's behind them. Currently with a hold on the second Wild Card spot, the Twins must stay the course.
Despite having dropped two of three to the Yankees this weekend, the AL East has given the Twins the least amount of problems this season. Leading the Blue Jays by 3 games, Baltimore by 3.5, and the Rays by 4, Minnesota is in a good place. the trade deadline should still be a place where the Twins need to buy, but their course of action should remain unchanged.
Whether or not Minnesota should go out and upgrade the catcher or shortstop position is something that can be debated, but relief arms are something the Twins still need to covet. Watching Steve Cishek go to the Cardinals for a price the Twins could have definitely paid, means they are more intrigued elsewhere. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which at least one arm doesn't come to Minnesota, but the big splashes aren't where the Twins need to focus.
This club has, and continues to, outperform expectations in 2015. Realizing the pieces to continue competing are they, and adding a couple more that help to solidify the Wild Card positioning should be the goal. Playoff baseball is a different beast, and it's anyone's guess as to what happens when it begins. Minnesota needs to add the pieces to stay in front of the race, and let what happens when they get there take place.
Terry Ryan has built a winner for years to come with the current organizational construction, and blowing that up to keep pace with those out of reach isn't going to do you any favors. Forget the Royals, light your own path, get some bullpen help, and grab the first playoff berth since 2010.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Platoon for a blog entry, Tulo The Twin: What's It Look Like?
The Minnesota Twins came into 2015 with expectations of a .500 season seeming doable, even despite the national types tabbing them for a last place finish in the AL Central. Now in the midst of a playoff race, the Twins find themselves shopping at the trade deadline. With Danny Santana playing anything but a capable shortstop, and internal options proving thing, Minnesota is kicking the tires on Troy Tulowitzki.
It really isn't at all like the Twins to make deadline deals, and even more so for them to go after such high profile players. With Tulo wanting out of Colorado though, and the Twins needing to fill the void that Cristian Guzman left at short so many years ago, the fit is at least sensible on the surface.
From there, things go downhill, and fast. I may be one of the biggest fans of Tulowitzki the player, but getting him to the Twins looks disastrous on multiple fronts. First and foremost, the acquisition cost. Colorado apparently is interested in Kyle Gibson.
A 27 year old with four years of team control left, and not arbitration eligible until 2017, Gibson has plenty to offer as a trade chip. He's been one of the Twins best starters (if not the best) and his 3.19 ERA and 6.4 K/9 are nice steps forward in his development. The Rockies see an ideal fit in Gibson as he's a sinkerballer that is inducing a career high 55% ground ball rate. Allowing just 27% of pitches to be hit hard, Gibson would see success in the otherwise difficult to handle Coors Field.
As good as Gibson has been and projects to continue to be, he alone wouldn't be enough for the Rockies either. For a talent like Tulowitzki, Colorado would be seeking multiple top tier prospects as well. With Minnesota surprisingly competing ahead of its window, fleecing the farm doesn't seem intelligent.
The next hurdle is what you can expect from Tulowitzki. He has played an average of 88 games the last three years and is now on the wrong side of 30. Despite being a perennial All-Star and consistent MVP candidate, expecting him to stay healthy is far from the norm. Dealing for a piece with the intention of fixing a problem area in the organization only to have that player sit on the DL isn't going to do anything for Minnesota.
Then there's the change of location. In his career, Tulo's home and away splits are telling. He's a .322/.395/.560 hitter at Coors Field, while slashing just .277/.349/.469 on the road. Factor in that Target Field is probably the furthest thing from the hitter friendly Coors Field, and the drop in production could be substantial. Balls simply don't fly out of downtown Minneapolis like they do in the Mile High City, and that isn't going to help a guy who hasn't gotten back to 30 home runs since 2011.
Rounding out the laundry list of negatives is the stack of cash the Rockies superstar still has coming to him. Colorado would almost assuredly need to throw in money in return for the prospects they covet in return. Tulowitzki is owed $20 million a year through 2019, before his salary drops to $14 million as a 35 year old in 2020. He also carries a $15 million team option for his 2021 season.
That kind of cash comes in under the $23 million the Twins currently pay Joe Mauer (who has actually been healthy more than Tulowitzki). Twins fans have consistently bashed Mauer's production relative to his compensation, and while Tulowitzki should no doubt outperform the transplanted catcher, it's anyone's guess as to how many games he contributes each year.
You'd probably be hard pressed to find someone that likes Troy Tulowitzki the baseball player than I do, but for the Twins, the answer has to be no. Going forward with the organization trending back towards winning and competition, adding what could end up being a very expensive corner outfielder long term (or worse), Minnesota would taking a significant (and potentially foolish) risk. Colorado is going to move Tulowitzki before that contract is up, but it doesn't need to be now, and it doesn't need to be the Twins.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from howieramone2 for a blog entry, The Best Trade The Twins Never Made
Generally, lights out relievers are hard to come by. While you can put together a makeshift bullpen in hopes of finding things that work, the really good ones often get hung onto. With the emergence of closer importance for teams, seeing the Craig Kimbrel's and Aroldis Chapman's of the big leagues dealt on a yearly basis often doesn't happen.
On July 18, 2014, it did happen though.
A guy with a 2.78 career ERA, 299 saves, and a 9.0 K/9 was sent packing. Not only are those great numbers for a bullpen guy, but they rank amongst some of the best when it comes to closers. That pitcher was the San Diego Padres Huston Street. In being sent to the Los Angeles Angels, the Padres expected a return, and that's exactly what they got.
The Padres welcomed the Angels number one, six, and eighth best prospects, as well as fourth top 20 inclusion (per FanGraphs). In retrospect, the Angels fleeced the bulk of their already mediocre farm system in return for elite level back end of the bullpen help.
So, why does this matter? Last season, the Twins dangled the idea of dealing their home grown closer. To be fair, I was even on board with the idea (sadly). Without a doubt, the lack of a move, may go down as one of the best decisions in Twins history.
For a losing team, and one in it's fourth year of significant losing, having a great closer seems like somewhat of a luxury. Even when 30 or more saves get racked up, does it really matter in the context of 90 losses. What about making the farm system even stronger for when the winning returns? Sure it would look like a bad move after just extending Perkins a contract extension, but who cares right?
The Twins put their foot down, they said no. No to dealing the local product. No to selling of a irreplaceable asset. No to all of it, and now, Perkins is making them feel great about the decision all over again.
Sure, Perkins was a very good closer last season. Late in the year injury problems inflated his ERA, but his 34 saves and 9.6 K/9 were some of the best marks of his career. He was coming off a 36 save season in 2013, a 2.30 ERA, an 11.1 K/9 mark, his first All Star Game appearance, and that shiny new four-year, $22.18 million contract. Nothing he did last season though could have prepared the Twins for what was to come.
There was a spring training injury scare, but Perkins insisted he was good to go this season. He wasn't going to miss time, and he was ready to compete. Glen Perkins was right.
In 2015, Perkins is 28-28 in save opportunities and leads the American League in that category. He's walking batters at a career best 1.2 BB/9 rate and his 0.830 WHIP is the best of his career. Not only is his season impressive, but Perkins recent run has been impressive as well. He's yet to give up a run since May 31 (a stretch of 14 games and 14.1 IP). In that timeframe, Perkins has struck out 15, walked just two, allowed only four hits, and picked up 10 saves.
Unlike other back end of the bullpen options, Perkins does it differently. Having thrown just four pitches 96 miles per hour or faster this season, it's his slider that has been devastating. Used a career high (as a closer) 26.7% of the time, Perkins has kept hitters off balance and outworked them at the plate.
Now fresh off his third straight trip to the midsummer classic, Glen Perkins looks every bit the part of one of the best in team history. Tying Eddie Guardado for third on the list right before the All Star break, he will set his sights on Rick Aguilera and Joe Nathan as the season draws on.
With his current pace set at 51 saves when the season comes to an end, Perkins is targeting what would be a tie for the 9th best single-season mark in Major League Baseball history. While an uphill battle, Perkins has overcome being a failed starter, a timeshared reliever, and an injured closer to boast the best season of his career.
It's pretty safe to say dealing Glen Perkins is the best trade the Twins never made. At 32, signed through 2017, and with no intention of playing anywhere else, Perkins should have Twins fans on their feet in the 9th for years to come.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from howieramone2 for a blog entry, Twins Are Poised For Playoffs
We have officially hit the All Star Break in Major League Baseball, and while the stretch run is where the pretenders and contenders are sorted out, the Twins are currently one of the best teams in baseball. It feels odd to say, given what expectations were, and what results have been, but it rings absolutely true. At the break, Minnesota owns the second best record in the American League, and their own best mark since 2008. It's no longer too early to suggest the playoffs are in sight.
44, 40, 36, and 41, those are the win totals for Minnesota at the break over the last four seasons. Each of those years, the Twins went on to lose 90 or more games. It's probably not fair to compare a winning team to those of futility, so take a look back to 2010 when Minnesota last won the AL Central with 94 wins. At the All Star Break, Ron Gardenhire's Twins checked in at 46-42, or behind their current pace for those playing along at home.
Coming into the season, the Twins had plenty of question marks. They were viewed as a year or two before making their turnaround, Paul Molitor was a first year manager, and the big free agent signing made to bolster the pitching staff was shelved before meaningful games even started. At the artificial halfway point, the Twins have answered more questions than they haven't, and it's now fair to start to wonder just how far they can climb.
Pitching was going to once again be something to monitor for Minnesota. finishing in the doldrums of Major League Baseball in virtually every pitching category in recent years, changes needed to be made. As things stand, Minnesota owns the 15th best ERA in the big leagues, and both Kyle Gibson and Tommy Milone rank amongst the top 15 ERA leaders in the American League. Twins starters have combined for 789.2 IP as well as 45 quality starts, again putting them right in the middle of the pack.
The results have been accomplished along the same lines as the Twins have become synonymous with however. Pitching to contact, Twins starters have allowed a .269 BAA (28th in MLB), and struck out just 537 batters (last in MLB). It's not smoke and mirrors, but rather pounding the strike zone and making opposing hitters beat them, a strategy that has thus far panned out.
At points this season, the Twins offense looked like it was in need of a boost. With Kennys Vargas and Oswaldo Arcia struggling, the pop has since come from a second basemen and a 40 year old. Brian Dozier is having an MVP caliber season, and his 18 home runs put him on pace to be the first Twins player to reach 30 home runs since Josh Willingham in 2012. Torii Hunter has been every bit the defensive liability he was imagined, but his bat (14 HR 49 RBI 15 2B) has produced at a vintage level.
While winning, the Twins have also been afforded the opportunity to usher in the future. Eddie Rosario has played an excellent outfield for Minnesota, and his .284 average is amongst the best on the ballclub. Byron Buxton was able to debut prior to the All Star Break (and should be back not too long after it), and Miguel Sano has set the world on fire.
In fact, instead of needing to deal for another Kendrys Morales type bat this season, the Twins traded with themselves in inserting Sano into the lineup. In his first 11 games, he's hit two home runs, driven in eight, doubled four times, and raced out to a .378/.489/.649 slash line. His power was expected to play, but Sano has been every bit the elite prospect he was billed to be.
Looking down the line at the rest of the season, the Twins future has become much more clear. With far fewer questions looming, they can focus on two keys principles. First, the organization must make a trade for some bullpen help. So far, Molitor has pieced the back end of his bullpen together, and it's starting to blow up big time.
Blaine Boyer has given the Twins more than they could have imagined, but he's on pace to be one of the most taxed relievers in all of baseball. Brian Duensing and Casey Fien have been up and down, and Minnesota has filled in the gaps with different pieces at a revolving door pace. In fact the only sure thing in the Twins pen is All Star closer Glen Perkins. Having saved 28 of 28 opportunities, he owns a sparkling 1.21 ERA in 37.1 IP. Perkins 8.68 K/9 is also amongst the best on the club for the Twins, but he no doubt needs help.
Minnesota has one of the best farm system in all of the big leagues, and dealing some depth for a quality pen arm is a must. Bringing in someone to act as a true setup man would bridge the gap from the starters to Perkins, and no doubt afford Molitor and Minnesota a few more late inning wins.
The second focus for the Twins is to view the postseason as their new reality. Every team sets that as a goal at the beginning of the year, or at least says so. Now for the first time in recent memory, the Twins are able to act on that. Key injuries to both the Royals and Tigers have opened a door that Minnesota must step through. Having played Kansas City and Detroit both to a 5-8 record, an evening out needs to occur.
At 49-40, Minnesota is just 4.5 back of the Royals while being 4.5 clear of the Tigers. In the wild card race, Minnesota owns the top spot, and is three games clear of the Tampa Bay Rays. Keeping pace in the division with the Royals should no doubt be the goal, and it's hard to imagine the Central not sending two teams to play October baseball.
.500 would have been a great place for this Twins team to be this season, thanks to the start however, that mark is now in the rear view mirror. Minnesota is poised for the postseason, Target Field is electric once again, and the Twins hold a lot of the cards in their own hands. Buckle up, it's going to be a fun ride.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from soofootinsfan37 for a blog entry, The Twins Should Keep On Dancing
Going into the 2015 Major League Baseball season, the Twins knew they had some deficiencies. Of the most glaring were veteran leadership and outfield depth. Terry Ryan and crew addressed that problem in one sweep signing fan favorite Torii Hunter to a one-year $10.5 million deal. While I was critical of the move from the get go, it's played out better than anyone could have imagined.
Torii was being sold as a veteran leader, and there's no doubt he brought that ability. From a baseball sense however, he was a clear downgrade in the outfield, and his bat absolutely needed to play to put weight to the move. So far, everything has worked out wonderfully, and maybe the best things Torii has brought to the club is his post-win dance parties.
"We win. We dance." It's a moniker displayed on the videoboards around Target Field following a Twins win. Now with over 45 of them under their belt heading into the All Star Break, the Twins have plenty of reasons to dance this season.
Of late, maybe one of the most important reasons for the Twins to celebrate is the reemergence of Joe Mauer. Arguably the most polarizing sports figure in Minnesota, Mauer has gone from a near Hall of Fame lock, to being a punching bag for many. In June, his average dipped to the .250 mark, and 2015 looked to be the beginning of what was a steep decline. Then things clicked.
Since June 5, Mauer owns a .301/.385/.469 line with five home runs, 12 RBI, and a 16/22 B/K ratio. More impressive than that, he has been on an absolute tear of late. Since June 26, Mauer has slashed .388/.426/.531 with two home runs and five RBI, and in the month of July he owns a .400/.438/.633 line. Now hitting for relative power again, with six home runs on the year, Mauer has a shot to post his best total since 2009.
Just ahead of Mauer in the lineup, the Twins have watched a legitimate MVP candidate emerge. Nevermind the fact that Brian Dozier belongs in the All Star Game, he's the best second basemen in all of baseball. 18 home runs, 45 RBI, 26 doubles, and a career best .851 OPS, Dozier is an elite level talent.
While last year saw a second half slide in the power department for the Twins second basemen, skipping the Home Run Derby should no doubt benefit Dozier this time around. On pace for right around 30 home runs and 50 doubles, Dozier is having one of the best power production seasons in Twins history. On top of that, Dozier continues to flash the leather routinely in the field. If nothing but Brian Dozier went right for the Twins this season, it'd be hard not to be happy.
On the mound, the Twins have watched years go by as pitching has been an absolute atrocity. This season however, not only has it been improved, but the team's starters have actually been a strength. Maybe most surprisingly, the Twins have enjoyed the development of Tommy Milone.
Already a proven starter when the Twins acquired him, Milone took his lumps for the first season he spent with the Twins. After getting sent down to Triple-A Rochester early in 2015, he has since come back with a vengeance. Throwing to the tune of a 0.70 ERA and a .182/.200/.248 for Rochester, Milone has gone 3-0 in his seven starts back with the Twins. In those games he owns a 1.84 ERA 32/11 K/BB ratio and just a .236/.284/.345 line against. To put it bluntly, Milone has been virtually untouchable.
It's not just Tommy getting the job done however. Fellow starting pitcher, and former first round Twins draft pick, Kyle Gibson has been equally as impressive. Expected to take steps forward this season, he has absolutely risen to the occasion. On the year Gibson owns a 3.04 ERA, 6.1 K/9 ratio, and just a 2.9 BB/9 mark. In his last five starts for the Twins, Gibson owns a 2.56 ERA and is allowing opposing hitters to bat just .239 against him.
The former Missouri Tiger was always expected to be a top half of the rotation guy in the big leagues. After mixed results in his first two seasons, the Twins were hoping that the further he distanced himself from Tommy John surgery, the better he would be. It's safe to say no one expected Gibson to be amongst the American League's best in ERA, but that's where we find ourselves.
If that already isn't enough reasons to be dancing with excitement, you can probably add in the fact that the Twins are winning as well. Holding pace with the best in the American League, the playoffs look like something more than a mirage for the first time in a while. On top of making that a reality, the organization has found room for top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano to make their big league debut prior to the All Star Break.
While Buxton's debut didn't start as smoothly as hoped (and now he's shelved on the DL), the fact that he blitzed Double-A was a great thing. Although his bat will take some time to transition to the big league level, it's no surprise the difference he makes in the Twins outfield.
On the flip side, Sano has done everything he's been asked to at the big league level. Fortunately, he's really only been asked to hit, and hit he has. In his first seven games at the big league level, Sano has slashed .455/.571/.682, hit his first home run, and driven in five RBI. Also, and maybe even more impressively, Sano owns an even 6/6 K/BB ratio. He's a week into his big league career, and pitchers have already been pitching around him.
Counting up all of the reasons, and there's plenty more than have been discussed here, Torii Hunter could probably double as a dance instructor. Brought in for some veteran leadership and a hope his bat had some pop left in it, Hunter has helped to reverse a culture of losing, and make the Twins look like an AL Central power once again.
The Twins have been doing plenty of winning, but even when they aren't, there's been plenty of reasons to be dancing.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from LaBombo for a blog entry, The Trade That Fleeced The West
To kick off the week, the Minnesota Twins welcomed the Baltimore Orioles into the friendly confines of Target Field. Looking around the diamond, it's hard not to get a little upset knowing J.J. Hardy is standing at shortstop while Jim Hoey is off building computers somewhere. Although the Twins have been on the short end of the stick in their fair share of roster moves, this season it's been about one of the best trades in recent memory.
Despite looking to make a run at the playoffs in 2014 by bringing in slugging designated hitter Kendrys Morales, the Twins sealed their fate by mid-summer. Sellers at the trade deadline, Minnesota had few assets that other teams coveted. The one they did have however, was an outfielder claimed off of waivers just a few months earlier.
Cast off by the Oakland Athletics, Sam Fuld was snagged by the Twins. With Aaron Hicks struggling, Oswaldo Arcia being what he is defensively, and the options running thin, the Twins needed a capable fielder. Snatching up Billy Beane's castoff, the Twins employed Fuld for 53 games last season.
Over the course of those 53 games, Fuld proved extremely valuable for the Twins. The scrappy outfielder hit .274/.370/.354 with 10 doubles and 17 runs batted in. Then it happened, on July 31, the Athletics came knocking. Needing to make up for the oft-injured Coco Crisp, and outfield deficiencies of their own, Beane wanted Fuld back for his playoff run. In return, he would off the Twins Tommy Milone.
Milone is far from an elite level major league pitcher, and he's probably not even a front end of the rotation type guy. However, for a team in the doldrums of the Major League Baseball ERA standings, the amount of value was through the roof.
Sure, Milone's first impression for the Twins was less than ideal. In six games, he owned a 7.06 ERA, his 4.6 BB/9 ratio wasn't good, and the former Oakland pitcher was rarely healthy. Coming off of that performance, spring training was going to be an uphill battle as well. Competing for the 5th and final rotation spot, Milone just squeaked into what was slated to be a much improved Twins rotation.
After a rocky start to the season, Milone was given a chance to let things click. Being sent down to Triple-A Rochester, Tommy really turned things on. On the farm, he pitched five games going 4-0, owning a 0.70 ERA, striking out 47 in 38.2 IP, and walking just three. On top of that, he allowed opposing hitters to bat just .182/.200/.248 off of him. By all accounts, he was absolutely brilliant.
What's better is that it hasn't stopped.
Since returning to the Twins on June 4th, Milone has pitched six games and owns a 1.95 ERA across that span. He's struck out 29, walked just nine, and pitched 37 innings. Allowing just a .243/.289/.350 slash line against, major league hitters have been overmatched by the soft-tossing lefty as well.
The level of production Milone has afforded the Twins in 2015 couldn't have been predicted by even the most in tune baseball minds. Knowing that the Twins gave up nothing to get him (or more accurately, rented a player and then received a pay day for it), makes the situation all that much better.
It's probably not fair to suggest that this run of brilliance is going to continue, at least not at this level. His current ERA ranks amongst the American League leaders, and after all, he still remains a less than ideal top end starter. For the Twins though, he absolutely makes sense, and remains a massive asset going forward.
Knowing that pitchers like Jose Berrios, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, and Taylor Rogers are all readily available to provide quality depth, Milone's brilliance only bolsters the Twins going forward. Not eligible for free agency until 2019, Minnesota has a very controllable asset at their disposal, and they will continue to be all the better for it.
From the get go, Terry Ryan and the Twins absolutely fleeced Billy Beane, the Athletics, and the AL West by sending Sam Fuld back in exchange for Milone. With his emergence in 2015, the icing on the cake looks even tastier.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from howieramone2 for a blog entry, The Twins Should Keep On Dancing
Going into the 2015 Major League Baseball season, the Twins knew they had some deficiencies. Of the most glaring were veteran leadership and outfield depth. Terry Ryan and crew addressed that problem in one sweep signing fan favorite Torii Hunter to a one-year $10.5 million deal. While I was critical of the move from the get go, it's played out better than anyone could have imagined.
Torii was being sold as a veteran leader, and there's no doubt he brought that ability. From a baseball sense however, he was a clear downgrade in the outfield, and his bat absolutely needed to play to put weight to the move. So far, everything has worked out wonderfully, and maybe the best things Torii has brought to the club is his post-win dance parties.
"We win. We dance." It's a moniker displayed on the videoboards around Target Field following a Twins win. Now with over 45 of them under their belt heading into the All Star Break, the Twins have plenty of reasons to dance this season.
Of late, maybe one of the most important reasons for the Twins to celebrate is the reemergence of Joe Mauer. Arguably the most polarizing sports figure in Minnesota, Mauer has gone from a near Hall of Fame lock, to being a punching bag for many. In June, his average dipped to the .250 mark, and 2015 looked to be the beginning of what was a steep decline. Then things clicked.
Since June 5, Mauer owns a .301/.385/.469 line with five home runs, 12 RBI, and a 16/22 B/K ratio. More impressive than that, he has been on an absolute tear of late. Since June 26, Mauer has slashed .388/.426/.531 with two home runs and five RBI, and in the month of July he owns a .400/.438/.633 line. Now hitting for relative power again, with six home runs on the year, Mauer has a shot to post his best total since 2009.
Just ahead of Mauer in the lineup, the Twins have watched a legitimate MVP candidate emerge. Nevermind the fact that Brian Dozier belongs in the All Star Game, he's the best second basemen in all of baseball. 18 home runs, 45 RBI, 26 doubles, and a career best .851 OPS, Dozier is an elite level talent.
While last year saw a second half slide in the power department for the Twins second basemen, skipping the Home Run Derby should no doubt benefit Dozier this time around. On pace for right around 30 home runs and 50 doubles, Dozier is having one of the best power production seasons in Twins history. On top of that, Dozier continues to flash the leather routinely in the field. If nothing but Brian Dozier went right for the Twins this season, it'd be hard not to be happy.
On the mound, the Twins have watched years go by as pitching has been an absolute atrocity. This season however, not only has it been improved, but the team's starters have actually been a strength. Maybe most surprisingly, the Twins have enjoyed the development of Tommy Milone.
Already a proven starter when the Twins acquired him, Milone took his lumps for the first season he spent with the Twins. After getting sent down to Triple-A Rochester early in 2015, he has since come back with a vengeance. Throwing to the tune of a 0.70 ERA and a .182/.200/.248 for Rochester, Milone has gone 3-0 in his seven starts back with the Twins. In those games he owns a 1.84 ERA 32/11 K/BB ratio and just a .236/.284/.345 line against. To put it bluntly, Milone has been virtually untouchable.
It's not just Tommy getting the job done however. Fellow starting pitcher, and former first round Twins draft pick, Kyle Gibson has been equally as impressive. Expected to take steps forward this season, he has absolutely risen to the occasion. On the year Gibson owns a 3.04 ERA, 6.1 K/9 ratio, and just a 2.9 BB/9 mark. In his last five starts for the Twins, Gibson owns a 2.56 ERA and is allowing opposing hitters to bat just .239 against him.
The former Missouri Tiger was always expected to be a top half of the rotation guy in the big leagues. After mixed results in his first two seasons, the Twins were hoping that the further he distanced himself from Tommy John surgery, the better he would be. It's safe to say no one expected Gibson to be amongst the American League's best in ERA, but that's where we find ourselves.
If that already isn't enough reasons to be dancing with excitement, you can probably add in the fact that the Twins are winning as well. Holding pace with the best in the American League, the playoffs look like something more than a mirage for the first time in a while. On top of making that a reality, the organization has found room for top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano to make their big league debut prior to the All Star Break.
While Buxton's debut didn't start as smoothly as hoped (and now he's shelved on the DL), the fact that he blitzed Double-A was a great thing. Although his bat will take some time to transition to the big league level, it's no surprise the difference he makes in the Twins outfield.
On the flip side, Sano has done everything he's been asked to at the big league level. Fortunately, he's really only been asked to hit, and hit he has. In his first seven games at the big league level, Sano has slashed .455/.571/.682, hit his first home run, and driven in five RBI. Also, and maybe even more impressively, Sano owns an even 6/6 K/BB ratio. He's a week into his big league career, and pitchers have already been pitching around him.
Counting up all of the reasons, and there's plenty more than have been discussed here, Torii Hunter could probably double as a dance instructor. Brought in for some veteran leadership and a hope his bat had some pop left in it, Hunter has helped to reverse a culture of losing, and make the Twins look like an AL Central power once again.
The Twins have been doing plenty of winning, but even when they aren't, there's been plenty of reasons to be dancing.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from howieramone2 for a blog entry, Puzzling Or Predictable: The Twins Bullpen Debacle
Over the weekend, Ervin Santana returned to the Twins starting rotation. After serving an 80 game PED-related suspension, the free agent acquisition came out of the gates strong. Twirling eight strong innings, Santana sat back and watched it all implode. Paul Molitor went to the bullpen, and his relievers let him down yet again.
Most recently, the suspects were Blaine Boyer and Aaron Thompson. In a tie game over the weekend, Molitor elected to give the ball to arms not named Glen Perkins. Of the two, Thompson has been especially bad this season. After starting relatively strong, he's come back to earth and now owns a 5.01 ERA.
Thompson is one of six Twins relievers this season to post an ERA north of 5.00. Alex Meyer's 16.88 ERA is easily dismissed with him only contributing 2.2 IP on the season. Caleb Thielbar also is in the group despite just throwing 5.0 innings for the big club. His 5.40 ERA looks worse however, considering he has struggled for much of the year at Triple-A.
Tim Stauffer and Michael Tonkin have also failed at the big league level this season. Minnesota offered Stauffer 15.0 innings of work, and multiple months of action before moving on from the free agent signee who posted a 6.60 mark in 13 games. Tonkin has spent more of the season moving back and forth between Triple-A and the big leagues, but owns a 5.73 mark with the Twins. Rounding out the ugliness is Brian Duensing.
Duensing continues to get a pass, much like Stauffer before him. Minnesota took the lefty to arbitration this offseason and handed him a one-year $2.7 million deal. His 6.52 ERA is the worst on the current 25 man roster, and his 4.58 FIP (fielding independent pitching) suggests it won't get much better any time soon. For a guy owning 4.02 FIP and 6.0 K/9 marks, the Twins have given way too many chances.
Looking at who are the culprits behind the problems though, we have just identified the bigger problem. Excluding those already named, Molitor has just Glen Perkins, J.R. Graham, Casey Fien, Ryan Pressly (now injured), and Blaine Boyer at his disposal.
Perkins is now doubt in the midst of the best season of his career. His 1.31 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and major league leading 27 saves have contributed to a 1.0 fWAR thus far. Unfortunately, Molitor can't only rely on Perkins out of the pen (even if he should have in Santana's first start).
Fien is a setup man, saved for the 8th inning. Even despite that, his 3.86 ERA and ugly 4.9 K/9 mark has led to some ugly blowups for the Twins this year. Graham has performed well, but is still getting just his first action above Double-A, and remains susceptible to vulnerability the more he is used. Boyer has no doubt worked out better than his ex-Padres teammate Stauffer, but Molitor has had to rely on him far too often. A 4.09 FIP suggests that the 2.63 ERA has plenty of room to rise.
With a bullpen full of uncertainty, and a closer that can only do so much, Molitor has had to get creative. Looking around the organization though, the pool is running empty. Tonkin and Thielbar have been afforded opportunities (albeit in short bursts). Triple-A Rochester offers little else unless tweener types like Logan Darnell (2.40 ERA AAA/7.13 ERA MLB career), Lester Oliveros (3.79 AAA/7.11 ERA MLB career), or A.J. Achter (2.15 AAA/3.27 MLB career) do anything for you.
The hope was that some of the Double-A bullpen would make its way to the big leagues in 2015. Since, Nick Burdi has been demoted to Fort Myers, Jake Reed has struggled mightily, Zack Jones has fallen off, and only recently promoted J.T. Chargois has excelled. It all adds up to the Twins being in a relatively difficult place.
While there may be potential answers in the future (with the hope that Tyler Jay would add to that equation), there doesn't appear to be any on the near horizon. The Twins have played above water most of the 2015 season, and while sustaining the roll would be nice, doing so without a competent bullpen is going to be quite the task.
In order to acquire a reliever capable of being more than a band-aid, teams will be asking for some of the Twins minor league depth. Knowing that bullpen options are few and far between, Minnesota may be best positioned to oblige and fix what appears to be a glaring problem. Right now, getting to the 9th inning with a lead provides all but a lock scenario. However, having only done that 27 times over the course of 82 games, Minnesota has left way too much on the table.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from howieramone2 for a blog entry, Alex Meyer: Destined To Stick
The time is now for the Minnesota Twins and Alex Meyer. On the heels of his recent promotion to the big leagues, Minnesota will now get to experience their return for Denard Span. With Meyer set to make his major league debut, there's no doubt that he wants to stick after his long awaited promotion. The good news, he should be expected to do just that.
Heading into the season, Baseball Prospectus ranked Alex Meyer as their 14th best prospect. At that time, he was still a starting pitcher, and that no doubt contributed to the high ceiling. Although he will debut with the Twins out of the pen, it's probably best to assume the door to the rotation isn't yet closed.
After struggling to the tune of a 7.09 ERA and 41/24 K/BB ratio as a starter this season for Triple-A Rochester, it became apparent that the Twins would need to get creative. At 25 years old, there's no doubt that Meyer's "prospect" status was waning thin, and getting him to a competitive level in the big leagues was a must. If the rotation wasn't going to be the stepping stone to do so, the bullpen then made a lot of sense.
With plenty of scouts and front office personnel believing that Meyer was always destined for the pen, the decision was pretty easy. Having an electric fastball, and the ability to ambush hitters late in games, the Twins could cash in on Meyer in another way. Since the transition down in Rochester, Meyer has proved that to be the case.
On May 25, Meyer made his first relief appearance for the Red Wins. Throwing a perfect inning with two strikeouts, Meyer flashed a sign of things to come. Fast forward 16 innings and Meyer has compiled quite the impressive stat line. In 17.0 IP, Meyer has allowed just a .188/.268/.219 slash line while owning a 0.53 ERA striking out 20 and walking just six. His 10.6 K/9 would be easily the best mark in the bullpen (Glen Perkins would be closest owning an 8.31 K/9), and his decreased walk rate is great to see.
For a team lacking the ability to strike batters out, Meyer becomes more than just another bullpen arm. Owning a career 10.3 K/9 across 394.0 minor league innings, his strikeout ability is more than substantiated. While command has always been his knock, Meyer has curbed some of those struggles in relief. Giving manager Paul Molitor a true asset in the bullpen, Meyer should be expected to be someone the Twins can lean on.
Despite getting solid starting performances throughout the season, the Twins currently have pitchers with 8.22 (Brian Duensing) and 5.40 (Aaron Thompson) in their bullpen. Taking relief appearances away from pitchers clearly not capable of them, Meyer should be able to provide the Twins another added boost.
Challenging for the top of the AL Central due to a hot start, a Twins team adding players like Byron Buxton, now Alex Meyer, and eventually Miguel Sano along the way, should contribute to an exciting summer. Although Meyer's promotion may not have come through the rotation as originally expected, he appears poised to contribute, and should be absolutely counted on to stick.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from howieramone2 for a blog entry, Byron Buxton Superhero: But Who Is He?
June 14, 2015 a day that will forever go down as one of the most highly anticipated days in all of Minnesota Twins history. Byron Buxton, the Twins second overall pick, joined the big leagues to an exorbitant amount of fanfare. With only three Twins picks ever drafted higher (Tim Belcher, Johnny Ard, and Joe Mauer went first overall), Buxton was seen as the superhero the Twins needed. But what exactly are his superpowers?
Now having spent just over a week in the big leagues, there has been mixed results. As with most prospects, expecting otherwordly production out of the gate is silly. After all, a young player is joining a league full of the best players in the world, and they have not yet seen that kind of competition. Expecting immediate success isn't a fair judgement, and suggesting a trip back down to the farm (stop being silly people) would also be counter productive.
The fact of the matter is that for the first time since Joe Mauer, the Twins do have their superhero, but he needs to harness his powers.
From the get go, some of them are going to play immediately. Against the Chicago White Sox on Monday night, Buxton flashed his two most impressive assets. On a dying liner to center, White Sox left fielder Melky Cabrera decided to try and score from second base. Buxton likely smirked and chuckled, and then he unleashed. The throw strayed no further than eight feet from the ground and was an absolute missile to the plate. Cabrera was dead in his tracks, and Buxton put the big leagues on notice. His right appendage is nothing short of a cannon.
Earlier in the same game, Buxton led off. It was the first time in his career that Byron would be given the opportunity, and manager Paul Molitor wanted him to ambush opposing pitcher John Danks. Buxton obliged at the plate and did just that. On a 2-0 fastball, Buxton went to right field with a looper than landed a few feet to the right of Avisail Garcia. Having already rounded first base by the time the ball hit the ground, Buxton galloped into second for a stand up double. A ball that was cut off before the gap, and had no business warranting extra bases, Buxton utilized unfairly. From somewhere in another galaxy, The Flash blushed at his competition.
Major League Baseball scouts attempt to quantify super powers into five distinct categories. Buxton has shown that he is the prototype when it comes to speed, fielding, and arm strength. It's in hitting, and power that Buxton may find his kryptonite.
A career .296/.380/.486 hitter through 263 minor league games, there's little doubt Buxton's bat will play at the highest level. However, it shouldn't be expected to do so right away. Over the course of his first 32 plate appearances, Buxton has worked a 3-1 count just twice, and a 2-1 count only five times. He's been ahead in the count just 38% of the time, and he's faced two-strike counts 53% of the time. For a guy working on brandishing an elevated hitting ability, he's fighting an uphill battle. Sometime in the not so distant future, he will hit but right now, that shouldn't be expected to be his game.
In the power department, Buxton is adept if nothing else. While not Thor like, the Twins phenom put up 27 home runs in those 263 minor league games. At a 16 HR/162 game pace, Buxton can eventually be counted upon to contribute in the slugging department as well. Just 21, the frame can still add muscle. While he'll never be the Hulk, Buxton no doubt should have the ability to banish a few baseballs in his time.
As a whole, the excitement and anticipation for the superhero known as Byron Buxton is absolutely warranted. It's time to stop talking about a possible trip back to the farm, and it would be best not to over manage the budding star. Know that a complete arsenal of weapons will come, but that currently only half of them should be expected to play. Allow Buxton to be what he is on the field and basepaths, and grow through the coming months.
Minnesota no doubt has a star on its hands, and while he may have the simplicity of The Flash now, showing a patiently observing approach could soon produce Captain America in the most desirable Twins form.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from howieramone2 for a blog entry, Time For Twins To Let It Sano
The Minnesota Twins have played through their first third of the 2015 Major League Baseball season. As they came out of the gates slow, surprises started to take place throughout the month of May. After sitting alone atop the American League and AL Central, the calendar then turned to June. Since then, the summer has been anything but pleasant for the Twins.
In June (as of this writing), the Twins are 4-11. In those 11 losses, the Twins have scored more than two runs just three times (with one of those times being a total of three runs). Two of their four wins have come scoring just two runs. Also in that span, the Twins have lost to run totals of one, two, and three (three times) runs. At this point, it's pretty safe to say the offense is struggling and needs a boost.
Enter Miguel Sano.
Earlier this month, Byron Buxton was promoted by the Twins. While Buxton was the organization's (and baseball's) top prospect, it was Sano who was expected to reach the big leagues first. After missing last season due to Tommy John surgery, there was no doubt Sano would need to shake off some rust. Now into June, Sano appears like he could immediately provide a boost to a struggling Twins lineup.
Since May 20, Sano has hit .324/.410/.592 over the course of 19 games for Double-A Chattanooga. In that time span, he's launched four home runs and driven in 17. His 16/10 strikeout to walk ratio is in a good place, and it would appear that Sano is more than clicking at the plate. His power has been talked about since the day he was signed by the Twins. On the season Sano has 12 home runs, and he's compiled 102 longballs in his 435 minor league games.
So far in 2015, the Twins have started both Kennys Vargas and Kurt Suzuki in the 5 hole 18 times. While Vargas may profile capable of that role, he's hit .150/.150/.150 with nine strikeouts, zero walks, and no extra base hits since being recalled from Triple-A Rochester. Suzuki has regressed from his career year in 2014 as expected, but even at his best (15 HR in 2009), he isn't a power threat.
What's worse than Vargas and Suzuki getting at bats in the heart of the order, the Twins have started Eduardo Nunez and Eduardo Escobar in the 5 hole a combined 12 times on the season. The two utility men have combined for four home runs over the course of 234 at bats. Looking for power in the middle of the lineup, Escobar's .624 OPS simply isn't going to get it done.
Now, although Sano has tormented Double-A pitching, expectations for his major league contributions should no doubt be muted. As with Buxton before him, Sano will be making the leap from Double-A when his time comes. This is definitely the right move, but the success may not immediately translate. The one thing that should however, is his power.
Where Buxton's hit tool is one that is still developing, Sano commands the strike zone well (he's striking out a career low $24.6%), and has an elite level of power. Currently graded 80/80 Raw Power by Fangraphs, Sano possesses the ability to destroy plenty a baseball. His Double-A career .292 ISO (isolated power, or slugging minus average) should be more than welcomed at Target Field.
Paul Molitor hinted that they have been keeping an eye on Sano, and his promotion could come sooner rather than later. The argument probably should be that it needs to be sooner rather than later. Sure, Sano may not hit .300 or even .280 in his first go-round at the big league level, but give him three months and you can bet on him launching 15-20 home runs.
The Twins offense needs a boost, it's time to let it Sano.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from dbminn for a blog entry, Brian Dozier Is Entering Elite Territory
Earlier this season, the Minnesota Twins signed second basemen Brian Dozier to a four-year, $20 million extension. In doing so, the Twins locked down their star second basemen into the foreseeable future, and bought out some of his arbitration years in the process. Now over a third of the way into the 2015 season, the contract that seemed to be a slam dunk, has turned out to be exactly that in the early going.
Despite Dozier being a fan favorite, and one of the Twins best players, there was some initial criticism of the Twins decision. While the contract did buy out arbitration years, the Twins failed to eat away at any free agency time Dozier would have. In doing the deal this way, Minnesota was locked into a $5 million average annual value until 2018, but Dozier would then be able to be immediately eligible for free agency.
Minnesota was seemingly banking on Dozier being a highly productive player over the course of the next four seasons, while hoping that the loyalty paid early on may offer them a hometown discount when and if that was needed in the long term. So far, both sides are putting their best foot forward.
Obviously it's still extremely early in the life of the contract, but Dozier has broken out even bigger in 2015. After looking the part of an All-Star in 2014, the Twins second basemen owns a .265/.346/.538 slash line this season, all career highs. He leads the team in HR (13), runs scored (51), on base percentage (.346), slugging (.538), on base plus slugging (.883), hits (63), doubles (20 which also leads the American League), triples (3), and walks (27).
It's pretty easy to suggest that Dozier is off to a good start, but to put it into even further context, where he may be going is all the more impressive. As Twins Daily's Nick Nelson notes, Dozier is on pace for 53 doubles, 34 HR, 133 runs scored. Those are marks no Major League Baseball second basemen has topped since 2011. Through just 61 games in 2015, Dozier has been worth 2.6 fWAR and is on pace for a 6.4 fWAR (previous career high is 4.8 in 2014).
Heading into the season, one of the biggest worries for Dozier was his tendency to sell out and pull the ball. Tony Blengino looked at Dozier's pull tendencies for Fangraphs and suggested he may be about to quickly decline from a ceiling he had reached. So far, the Twins second basemen has stuck with the same process, and the results have followed suit.
In 2015, Dozier has pulled a career high 62.6% of the balls he has put in play. However, Dozier has also recorded a 30.5% hard hit percentage, which is also a career high. While Dozier is hitting just 14.4% of his balls in play to the opposite field (a career low), he's supplemented it by hitting a career high 26.3% of balls in play as line drives.
On top of being great across the board in 2015, Dozier has actually silenced critics in regards to one of his most common knocks. Discredited for having an often low average (which matters very little), Dozier has actually struck out a career high 19.9% this season while batting .21 points above his career mark.
At this point, it's pretty apparent Brian Dozier has been nothing short of spectacular at the plate for the Twins. He's been the power hitter they didn't know they had, and he's gotten it done in multiple facets of his plate appearances. On the defensive side of things, Dozier isn't too shabby either.
Errors haven't been an issue for Dozier since moving from shortstop to second base following the 2012 season. This season, he has just one in 61 games, putting him on pace for 2.5 on the season (would be a career low). He currently has been worth one DRS (defensive run saved) while being on pace for a career best 1.9 UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating runs above average per 150 games).
Looking at what Dozier has been compared to the rest of the major league second basemen, he ranks behind only Jason Kipnis (3.7 fWAR) and Dee Gordon (2.8 fWAR). He is out-slugging both players by at least .034 points and leads all second basemen in home runs (next closest is Dustin Pedroia with 9).
Taking a top down view and assessing everything as a whole, Fangraphs puts Brian Dozier's current value in dollars at $21.2 million, or roughly $1 million more than the entirety of his four year contract. Whether you adhere to advanced analytics or not, the eye test has corroborated the numbers this season, Brian Dozier is very good. At this point, it looks like the Twins got a steal, and if this continues for even half of the contract, both parties are in a place to benefit greatly from one another.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Benchwarmerjim for a blog entry, Brian Dozier Is Entering Elite Territory
Earlier this season, the Minnesota Twins signed second basemen Brian Dozier to a four-year, $20 million extension. In doing so, the Twins locked down their star second basemen into the foreseeable future, and bought out some of his arbitration years in the process. Now over a third of the way into the 2015 season, the contract that seemed to be a slam dunk, has turned out to be exactly that in the early going.
Despite Dozier being a fan favorite, and one of the Twins best players, there was some initial criticism of the Twins decision. While the contract did buy out arbitration years, the Twins failed to eat away at any free agency time Dozier would have. In doing the deal this way, Minnesota was locked into a $5 million average annual value until 2018, but Dozier would then be able to be immediately eligible for free agency.
Minnesota was seemingly banking on Dozier being a highly productive player over the course of the next four seasons, while hoping that the loyalty paid early on may offer them a hometown discount when and if that was needed in the long term. So far, both sides are putting their best foot forward.
Obviously it's still extremely early in the life of the contract, but Dozier has broken out even bigger in 2015. After looking the part of an All-Star in 2014, the Twins second basemen owns a .265/.346/.538 slash line this season, all career highs. He leads the team in HR (13), runs scored (51), on base percentage (.346), slugging (.538), on base plus slugging (.883), hits (63), doubles (20 which also leads the American League), triples (3), and walks (27).
It's pretty easy to suggest that Dozier is off to a good start, but to put it into even further context, where he may be going is all the more impressive. As Twins Daily's Nick Nelson notes, Dozier is on pace for 53 doubles, 34 HR, 133 runs scored. Those are marks no Major League Baseball second basemen has topped since 2011. Through just 61 games in 2015, Dozier has been worth 2.6 fWAR and is on pace for a 6.4 fWAR (previous career high is 4.8 in 2014).
Heading into the season, one of the biggest worries for Dozier was his tendency to sell out and pull the ball. Tony Blengino looked at Dozier's pull tendencies for Fangraphs and suggested he may be about to quickly decline from a ceiling he had reached. So far, the Twins second basemen has stuck with the same process, and the results have followed suit.
In 2015, Dozier has pulled a career high 62.6% of the balls he has put in play. However, Dozier has also recorded a 30.5% hard hit percentage, which is also a career high. While Dozier is hitting just 14.4% of his balls in play to the opposite field (a career low), he's supplemented it by hitting a career high 26.3% of balls in play as line drives.
On top of being great across the board in 2015, Dozier has actually silenced critics in regards to one of his most common knocks. Discredited for having an often low average (which matters very little), Dozier has actually struck out a career high 19.9% this season while batting .21 points above his career mark.
At this point, it's pretty apparent Brian Dozier has been nothing short of spectacular at the plate for the Twins. He's been the power hitter they didn't know they had, and he's gotten it done in multiple facets of his plate appearances. On the defensive side of things, Dozier isn't too shabby either.
Errors haven't been an issue for Dozier since moving from shortstop to second base following the 2012 season. This season, he has just one in 61 games, putting him on pace for 2.5 on the season (would be a career low). He currently has been worth one DRS (defensive run saved) while being on pace for a career best 1.9 UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating runs above average per 150 games).
Looking at what Dozier has been compared to the rest of the major league second basemen, he ranks behind only Jason Kipnis (3.7 fWAR) and Dee Gordon (2.8 fWAR). He is out-slugging both players by at least .034 points and leads all second basemen in home runs (next closest is Dustin Pedroia with 9).
Taking a top down view and assessing everything as a whole, Fangraphs puts Brian Dozier's current value in dollars at $21.2 million, or roughly $1 million more than the entirety of his four year contract. Whether you adhere to advanced analytics or not, the eye test has corroborated the numbers this season, Brian Dozier is very good. At this point, it looks like the Twins got a steal, and if this continues for even half of the contract, both parties are in a place to benefit greatly from one another.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from howieramone2 for a blog entry, The Twins Silver Lining
Quite possibly the most often, or even overused word to describe what may lie ahead for the Minnesota Twins in 2015 has been regression. While it's hard to assume that a three game losing streak is indicative of what's to come, there's no doubt Minnesota's offense has struggled of late. Although that may be reflective of a team that has capitalized in high leverage situations, there's something bigger at play here. The Twins offense slumping has not been combined with an all-around collapse, and pitching has been the silver lining.
On the season, the Twins team ERA sits at 3.88; a mark that's good enough for fourth in the American League and ninth in all of baseball. Putting that into context, Minnesota is still without their key free-agent acquisition, and Phil Hughes owns the worst ERA (4.81) in the rotation. On the flip side, the biggest bright spot comes in the form of Mike Pelfrey, who's 2.28 ERA ranks fourth in the American League.
Over the course of the last week, Minnesota has last games giving up 1, 4, 3, and 2 runs. In those games, the offense combined to score three total runs. Wasted quality starts have become something that has hurt the Twins in their recent slide. While the offense has been missing in action, the hurler on the mound has kept things interesting.
The Twins have done some shuffling in hopes of sparking a lineup resurgence. Kennys Vargas was brought back to DH from Triple-A Rochester, and Danny Santana was sent packing. Vargas should add some much needed punch to the lineup as he was on a tear before his initial demotion. Eduardo Escobar leaves a lot to be desired in taking over for Santana, but the Twins could turn to Jorge Polanco in the near future.
As the summer continues on, prospects like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano should also force their way into the Twins lineup, giving them another added boost. Slumps from Trevor Plouffe and Torii Hunter shouldn't be expected to continue, and at the end of the day, the Twins still have their silver lining.
Riding out the recent offensive downturn, the Twins pitching has been there to lead the way. Expect Ervin Santana to be a difference maker for Minnesota when he returns in July. Top pitching prospect, Alex Meyer, also looks like he could provide some immediate value. Since transitioning to the bullpen, Meyer owns a 1.17 ERA 10/4 K/BB ratio and a .148 batting average against. Despite not being given up as a starter yet, Meyer may provide more value out of the pen in the short term.
Going into the season, and considering the recent years of struggle, it would have been hard to convince someone that it would be the pitching that kept the Twins afloat. Now as a true asset, Minnesota is in an advantageous situation as soon as they can rectify the offensive woes. That still needs to happen sooner rather than later, but for now, it looks like the men on the mound are in a good place.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from howieramone2 for a blog entry, Carlos Correa Just Opened Byron Buxton's Door
The Minnesota Twins have spent the last week or so jostling for position atop the AL Central. Having somewhat cooled off after their torrid run in may, the offense has been somewhat to blame. Now having brought power hitting designated hitter Kennys Vargas back into the fold, it appears that may be a targeted approach for run support. To help further, the Twins could look at the blueprint laid out by fellow AL surprise team, the Houston Astros, and allow top prospect Byron Buxton to follow in Carlos Correa's footsteps.
Houston made the move to call up top prospect Correa over the weekend. He was the lone player drafted ahead of Buxton, and has also experienced a ton of success at the minor league level. Starting at Double-A Corpus Christi this season, Correa slashed .385/.459/.726 with seven home runs and 32 runs batted in. He added 15 stolen bases and legged out 15 doubles as well. By all accounts, Correa dominated the Texas League.
The Astros sent Correa to Triple-A Fresno for 24 games following his hot start. While his average dipped (.276) he still got on base at a high clip (.345) and slugged .449. It was after just 24 games in the Pacific Coast League that Houston believed they had seen enough. In bringing up Correa, the Astros signified a desired to maximize their current winning ways, and continue along that path well into the summer.
Now the Twins have the opportunity to follow suit. With the Cubs having promoted Kris Bryant a few weeks ago, and Correa getting the call, Byron Buxton remains the last of the elite tier of prospects expected to reach the major leagues this season.
Much like Correa, Buxton suffered a lost season in 2014. Correa played in 62 games before suffering a season ending injury. In 2014, Buxton was only able to play in 31 games after dealing with a wrist injury and then a concussion. Now 54 games into his 2015 season, there's no doubt that the countdown to his arrival is on.
Unlike Correa, Buxton hasn't lit the Double-A Southern League on fire. After starting incredibly cold, he has evened out and is now batting .267/.327/.475. Outside of the traditional batting line however, his speed has played tremendously, evidenced by his league leading 11 triples and 19 stolen bases. Things are also continuously trending up for Buxton, who has batted .318/.376/.541 since May 16.
There's no doubt the Twins could use a boost at the top of their lineup, and Buxton profiles as an ideal leadoff hitter. Despite what Brian Dozier has done for Minnesota this season, it still makes sense to get a couple of guys on ahead of his power bat. Followed in the lineup by players like Torii Hunter and Joe Mauer, Buxton hitting ahead of that group would no doubt be a positive.
On top of the added offensive boost, the Twins could transform their outfield into a positive situation less than halfway through the season. Instead of Oswaldo Arcia and Torii Hunter flanking center, Minnesota could go Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Aaron Hicks from left to right. Hunter would factor in at the DH spot and could spell Hicks in certain situations. No matter the configuration, Buxton possesses Gold Glove ability in the outfield with speed that would make Target Field look small.
At this point, it's hard to imagine that we aren't past the Super 2 deadline for prospects, and whether or not the Twins are taking that into consideration really shouldn't matter. I'm not ready to suggest that Buxton will be in Minnesota by the end of the month, but Correa's promotion should be seen as more of a blueprint for the Twins to follow than anything.
While believing we would see the star centerfielder sometime in August a few weeks ago, there's no doubt the timeline has changed to sometime in July at the latest. Minnesota is on a great run, and sustaining it will be done from within. Getting your best asset to the big leagues sooner than later is a great place to start.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from messed up for a blog entry, Joe Mauer Is Reinventing Meaningful Statistics
In the dead of the Pittsburgh night, late in the game (the top of the 13th inning to be exact), Joe Mauer did something that he has abandoned since August 17, 2014. With Antonio Bastardo on the mound, Mauer deposited a pitch over the right-centerfield wall at PNC Bank stadium. The Twins went on to win the game by a tally of 4-3. The home run was the shot that lifted Minnesota over the Pirates, but for Joe, it really doesn't matter.
The home run off of Bastardo ended a 286 at bat drought for Mauer. While a first basemen, power has generally not been his game (just 37 HR since 2010), but taking a deeper look at the 2015 version, that's something you should be ok with. Statistically speaking, the corner infield spots are held down by hulking home run hitters that drive the ball to all fields. Contrary to what may be popular belief, Mauer has reinvented himself in bringing value to the role.
Often regarded as an opposite field hitter (outside of the relative reliability to pull ground balls) Mauer has used all fields incredibly well in 2015. He is currently pulling 31.5% of his batted balls, while going up the middle with 35.4%, and hitting to the opposite field 33.1% of the time. A career 28.8% pull hitter, he has more evenly used all fields in 2015.
Although Mauer is more evenly distributing his hits, they are falling in equaling less total bases. Though this isn't ideal, it can likely be explained by his hard hit percentage. Owner of a career 33.6% hard hit percentage, Mauer is hitting just 23.6% of his batted balls hard this year. While his medium hits are at 59.1% (as opposed to a career 56.7%), his soft hits are also significantly up at 17.3% (career 9.7%).
The most visible place these numbers have shown up is in regards to Mauer's doubles this season. With eight total through the first quarter of the season, reaching 30+ will require a few more balls driven to the gaps. However, Mauer does have two triples already this season, matching his 2014 total.
Looking at the numbers as a whole, we can start to see where Joe Mauer has deficiencies, and where he should be expected to contribute. That being said, a glance at a few different key areas quickly points out that Mauer may in fact be on pace for one of his best offensive seasons in recent memory. Home runs aside, he is driving the Twins offense right now, quite literally.
Leading the club in runs batted in with 24, Mauer is blistering past his 2014 pace (which ended with 55 RBI). Mauer's previous career high in runs batted in came during the 2009 season, in which he drove in 96 runs for the Twins. As it stands now, he's on pace to even that mark. Mauer driving in runs is a by-product of his success in high leverage situations this season, and his success is astounding.
A large portion of being a talented hitter is situational hitting. While Mauer's .284/.341/.381 slash line may leave some room for improvement, it's tough to argue what he's done in high leverage situations. In 2015 with runners on base, Mauer is hitting .382/.463/.485 and with runners in scoring position he's even better, .419/.500/.512. Taking it one step further, Mauer is 4-5 with a triple and eight RBI with the bases loaded in 2015, equating to a 2.000 OPS. Driving runners around and putting the Twins on the board is no doubt the most important offensive feat, no matter how that is accomplished.
Now that we've established why Mauer's lack of home runs doesn't really matter, it's probably a good time to suggest things could continue to get even better. Hoping that Mauer's overall slash line returns back towards his career numbers still seems to be in the cards. Last season, Mauer didn't hit .300 in any single month until September. In 2015, Mauer's April line checked in at .318/.392/.412. He's struggled at the plate in May (outside of those high leverage situations), but it's pretty apparent that a healthy Mauer can still hit. As the summer wears on, it should be expected that Mauer hits at a better than average clip.
This Twins team is in a good place right now, and with key additions coming as the season goes on, they are in position to keep getting better. The 6th best offense in baseball is continuing to push runs across at a strong clip, and Joe Mauer is a big reason for it, even despite the home runs.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from sdtwins37 for a blog entry, Joe Mauer Is Reinventing Meaningful Statistics
In the dead of the Pittsburgh night, late in the game (the top of the 13th inning to be exact), Joe Mauer did something that he has abandoned since August 17, 2014. With Antonio Bastardo on the mound, Mauer deposited a pitch over the right-centerfield wall at PNC Bank stadium. The Twins went on to win the game by a tally of 4-3. The home run was the shot that lifted Minnesota over the Pirates, but for Joe, it really doesn't matter.
The home run off of Bastardo ended a 286 at bat drought for Mauer. While a first basemen, power has generally not been his game (just 37 HR since 2010), but taking a deeper look at the 2015 version, that's something you should be ok with. Statistically speaking, the corner infield spots are held down by hulking home run hitters that drive the ball to all fields. Contrary to what may be popular belief, Mauer has reinvented himself in bringing value to the role.
Often regarded as an opposite field hitter (outside of the relative reliability to pull ground balls) Mauer has used all fields incredibly well in 2015. He is currently pulling 31.5% of his batted balls, while going up the middle with 35.4%, and hitting to the opposite field 33.1% of the time. A career 28.8% pull hitter, he has more evenly used all fields in 2015.
Although Mauer is more evenly distributing his hits, they are falling in equaling less total bases. Though this isn't ideal, it can likely be explained by his hard hit percentage. Owner of a career 33.6% hard hit percentage, Mauer is hitting just 23.6% of his batted balls hard this year. While his medium hits are at 59.1% (as opposed to a career 56.7%), his soft hits are also significantly up at 17.3% (career 9.7%).
The most visible place these numbers have shown up is in regards to Mauer's doubles this season. With eight total through the first quarter of the season, reaching 30+ will require a few more balls driven to the gaps. However, Mauer does have two triples already this season, matching his 2014 total.
Looking at the numbers as a whole, we can start to see where Joe Mauer has deficiencies, and where he should be expected to contribute. That being said, a glance at a few different key areas quickly points out that Mauer may in fact be on pace for one of his best offensive seasons in recent memory. Home runs aside, he is driving the Twins offense right now, quite literally.
Leading the club in runs batted in with 24, Mauer is blistering past his 2014 pace (which ended with 55 RBI). Mauer's previous career high in runs batted in came during the 2009 season, in which he drove in 96 runs for the Twins. As it stands now, he's on pace to even that mark. Mauer driving in runs is a by-product of his success in high leverage situations this season, and his success is astounding.
A large portion of being a talented hitter is situational hitting. While Mauer's .284/.341/.381 slash line may leave some room for improvement, it's tough to argue what he's done in high leverage situations. In 2015 with runners on base, Mauer is hitting .382/.463/.485 and with runners in scoring position he's even better, .419/.500/.512. Taking it one step further, Mauer is 4-5 with a triple and eight RBI with the bases loaded in 2015, equating to a 2.000 OPS. Driving runners around and putting the Twins on the board is no doubt the most important offensive feat, no matter how that is accomplished.
Now that we've established why Mauer's lack of home runs doesn't really matter, it's probably a good time to suggest things could continue to get even better. Hoping that Mauer's overall slash line returns back towards his career numbers still seems to be in the cards. Last season, Mauer didn't hit .300 in any single month until September. In 2015, Mauer's April line checked in at .318/.392/.412. He's struggled at the plate in May (outside of those high leverage situations), but it's pretty apparent that a healthy Mauer can still hit. As the summer wears on, it should be expected that Mauer hits at a better than average clip.
This Twins team is in a good place right now, and with key additions coming as the season goes on, they are in position to keep getting better. The 6th best offense in baseball is continuing to push runs across at a strong clip, and Joe Mauer is a big reason for it, even despite the home runs.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
-
Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Oldgoat_MN for a blog entry, Trevor Plouffe Has Given The Twins A Great Problem
The year was 2011, and the Minnesota Twins had two players competing for one spot at the hot corner. One was a 19th round draft pick and coming off of a season that had him in the running for Rookie of the Year honors. The other was a first round draft pick that had just experienced his first cup of coffee. At the end of the year though, and into the future, it was the first round draft pick that would take over. Trevor Plouffe grabbed the role from Danny Valencia, and he hasn't looked back.
Of course knowing Plouffe's track record, there's little reason to suggest there haven't been bumps in the road. The 2012 season saw Plouffe play his first games at third for the Twins. In 95 games at third, Plouffe committed 17 errors, was worth -8 defensive runs saved, and owned an ugly -10.8 UZR. While it's one thing to suggest that the only way to go from there was up, the heights Plouffe would find himself at didn't immediately seem apparent.
In 2013, the Twins new third basemen made 13 errors in 120 games and owned a -7.4 UZR rating. Bringing his DRS to an even 0 was a step in the right direction however. Then the turnaround happened, and in a big way. Last season, despite making 14 errors, Plouffe owned a 6.7 UZR and was worth 6 DRS. Not only did he play the best third base of his career, but he did so across 127 games, also a career high. Even better, Plouffe hadn't only made stride in the field, but at the plate as well.
Back in 2012, his first season at the hot corner, Plouffe used a scorching July to carry himself to a career high 24 home runs. While he has yet to match that output, 2013 and 2014 saw big advancements in other offensive areas. The California native carried a .254/.309/.392 slash line in 2013 with 14 HR and 52 RBI. He backed that up a year later in 2014 by slashing .258/.328/.423 and launching 14 HR with a career high 80 RBI. Plouffe also grew a greater patience and command at the dish by walking 53 times, nearly doubling his past career high.
Following along the same trend that he has laid out the past two seasons, Plouffe has started 2015 on a similar note. Currently owning a .254/.336/.423 slash line with 5 HR and 18 RBI, it looks like the production will continue. In 34 games at the hot corner, he's made just 3 errors while compiling an early 1.6 UZR.
Not too long ago, Trevor Plouffe was seen as a player holding down a position until someone else came along. As uber prospect Miguel Sano gained steam, it appeared that Plouffe was just keeping his eventual role warm. Since, it's not the Sano has cooled, but that Plouffe has transformed himself to be on of the best third baggers in Major League Baseball. A guy that owned -0.4 and -0.9 fWAR in his first two seasons, Plouffe was worth a 3.6 fWAR last season, and has already jumped out to a 1.1 fWAR mark in 2015.
At some point, the Twins will have to decide how to position players like Trevor Plouffe, Joe Mauer, and Miguel Sano to make everyone fit. While that time isn't yet hear, there's little reason to suggest that Plouffe hasn't given the Twins a great problem to have. Instead of just being a guy holding down a spot, he has become the guy on a team that looks poised to turn the corner. With a possible payday looming, Plouffe has no one but himself to thank for cashing in. The transformation has been fun to watch, and it may just be the beginning of it.
For more from Off The Baggy click here. Follow @tlschwerz

