Ted Schwerzler

While Opening Day was bearing down on the Minnesota Twins, weather delayed things just a bit. With the schedule now set to open on Friday, the front office continued working as they acquired Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan from the Padres in exchange for closer Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker. What does that do to the roster? First and foremost, the first guy Minnesota gave up was a pillar in the clubhouse for the Twins. If there’s a way for this to go pear-shaped, it’s in disrupting chemistry we’ve heard talked about so highly coming into the season. Rogers was the Twins MLBPA player rep and worked with the owners through the lockout. He handled the media well and was extremely well-liked by his peers. Through a baseball lens, Rogers is 31-years-old and coming off a finger injury that limited him to just 40 1/3 innings last season. He was sure to be traded at the deadline, but that came off the table when he hit the Injured List. Appearing in his first All-Star game, a neat experience in his home state of Colorado, Rogers posted a 3.35 ERA with a 13.2 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. When healthy, he’s been among the best closers in baseball the past few seasons, and his 2.52 FIP tells the tale there. Somewhat of a footnote in this deal, Rooker goes to the Padres after being beaten out by Kyle Garlick for the final outfield spot. He shined in seven games for Minnesota during 2020, but the .688 OPS last season simply wasn’t going to play. When he was drafted 35th overall back in 2017, it was immediately known he would be a bat-only player. San Diego will put him in a corner outfield spot, but he’s incredibly stretched there. Although the power certainly plays, there’s a lot of swing and miss in his game as well. A fresh start could prove beneficial for him. Dealing Rogers the day before Minnesota takes the field may be risky, but the return absolutely justifies a move. Chris Paddack comes to Minnesota as a former darling rookie. He posted a 3.33 ERA across 26 games for the Padres in 2019. He averages 94 mph on his fastball, and outside of 2020, he’s posted strong FIP numbers. The 5.07 ERA in 2021 wasn’t pretty, but the peripherals suggest there’s more to unlock. Although his strikeout numbers have fallen a bit the past three seasons, he’s also lowered his walk and home run rates. There’s swing-and-miss stuff to be exploited here, and pitching coach Wes Johnson will immediately get to work on pushing those tweaks. Paddack is under team control through the 2024 season from a contractual standpoint. This alone may be the most significant boost for Minnesota. At just 26-years-old, the Twins can mold Paddack throughout the next three seasons and hope to push his stuff towards the top-end of their rotation. He would join Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober as arms already locked in for next season. Making just $2.25 million through arbitration this year, Paddack’s expense is minimal. Joining Paddack and adding back into the Twins pen is Emilio Pagan, who will be with his fifth team in six big league seasons. Last year, his 63 1/3 innings with San Diego was nearly career-high, but it came with a career-worst 2.3 HR/9 and a 4.83 ERA. Pagan’s 5.22 FIP suggests he was actually worse than the surface numbers, but just two seasons ago, the Tampa Bay Rays had him looking like one of the best pen arms in the game. Under team control next season, Minnesota can opt to keep him around for another year. The addition of Paddack obviously shuffles the rotation. As it was currently constructed, Ryan was set to be followed by Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer. Paddack will need to slot in somewhere, and the most likely candidate to be bumped in my mind is Ober. He could go to a long relief role out of the bullpen until the point in which a starter begins to struggle. Bundy may be the lowest ceiling talent of the group, but given he was signed as a starter for $5 million early in the offseason, I’m not sure he’s the guy that would get moved around. A ripple effect of this situation is what happens with Josh Winder. He looks to have made the big league roster but was already going to be pitching out of the bullpen in a long relief role. Now with Ober in that mix, too, there are a lot of innings needed to keep starting arms fresh, and the hope is that there’s only so many to go around. Obviously, Pagan will slot in somewhere during the middle innings. He’s not a back-end option for Minnesota at this point. Replacing Rogers will be some combination of Tyler Duffey, Jorge Alcala, and Jhoan Duran. With Duran’s stuff playing so well this spring, it seemed sensible to use him immediately in relief rather than continuing to develop him as a starter. He now may be the frontrunner for the closer role if Rocco Baldelli and Johnson opt to keep Duffey and Alcala in their previously established late-inning spots. It would be a big ask for the young prospect, but the reality here is that Minnesota appears intent on developing their pen arms and not paying handsomely in relief. That’s certainly a viable strategy when you’ve seemingly made it work with a handful of guys. When viewing this from the top, the Twins now pay less for three years of a starter with upside and a reliever who has been very good than they did for a closer coming off an injury and slated for free agency with a bat tossed in. It’s hard not to see this as a win for Minnesota, and while the volatility of relief arms remains immense, betting on the horses you have is definitely not a bad stance. Time to play ball. View full article

Despite postponing Opening Day by 24 hours, the Minnesota Twins were back at Target Field today for their media day and full-squad workout. Although temperatures hovered in the high-30s and light rain was falling, a workout followed a pair of press conferences. After a torrid Spring Training, Byron Buxton was back in Minnesota and stepped up to the podium. The weather wasn’t on his mind as Buxton said the club really hadn’t considered the weather until leaving JetBlue yesterday following their game against the Boston Red Sox. “Sano said he didn’t have a coat, and then the rest of us looked around and realized we didn’t either.” Given his scorching pace this spring, it’s not shocking the weather didn’t deter the Twins centerfielder. While the games don’t factor into the standings, Buxton posted a .469/.514/.1.094 slash line. Talking about what leads to production at that level, he said, “Confidence is pretty high. Knowing I’m here for seven more years as well is a big factor.” Buxton brought up this point multiple times, and manager Rocco Baldelli later said, “There’s comfort in being able to not worry about your family and just playing the game,” After signing with the Twins, during his press conference, Carlos Correa brought up how his focus will be turned towards working on perfection. He brings a winning attitude, has been a winner, and wants to win. That seems to have permeated quickly throughout the clubhouse. Buxton said, “We want to win. Obviously, when I signed, that was a big focus.” He followed up by saying, “It’s very special right now, the things going on in that clubhouse.” Buxton’s confidence isn’t just internal. Knowing the talent of his teammates, he said, “We know we got a great defense. We rake.” As Correa did when meeting the media, Buxton echoed a desire for rings today. This is a team ready to get going, and while Opening Day is delayed by 24 hours, they’re chomping at the bit to show the league what they’re about. The man leading them once again is Rocco Baldelli. Coming off a disappointing season, it’s evident that the skipper sees his club in the same light as his clubhouse leaders. Despite outsiders' questions regarding the rotation, Baldelli said, “I actually like having youth on our pitching staff. Youth can be a very good thing.” He gushed about the confidence in arms like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, notably professing the work Minnesota’s staff has seen. In touching on veteran Chris Archer, Baldelli said, “I’ve known Arch for a very long time as a pitcher and as a person. He looked great.” The former Rays starter stayed an extra day in Fort Myers to work another outing with pitching coach Wes Johnson, in which he got in 50-55 pitches. Minnesota is looking to replace a leadership presence in Nelson Cruz, but Correa has stepped in. While Baldelli said each team has a different feel, he came away impressed by “the number of very particular conversations he had with people on day one…he had the charisma and confidence wanting to talk about the Twins, the way we operate, what we need from him, what he needs from us, and how it all comes together.” Carrying over from the Twins time down in Fort Myers, everything about this club continues to be about winning. The Minnesota clubhouse is filled with guys singularly focused on the ultimate goal. “The talk and feel of every guy in our clubhouse revolve around the right things. The number one thing being winning baseball games, winning a World Series.” A couple of additional positives came from Baldelli as he wrapped up his press conference before the players hit the field. Nick Gordon is all systems go after his collision with Max Kepler in the outfield earlier this week. The medical staff hasn’t alerted Baldelli of anything new, and Gordon himself hasn’t suggested there have been any setbacks. That clean bill of health also applies to Alex Kirilloff. Baldelli did say that Kirilloff will play plenty of outfield and first base, “even switching between the two mid-game at times.” Asked about the lack of time in left field, Baldelli said Kirilloff has consistently been rotated through both corner spots, and they are confident with him in either role. This evening, Minnesota is looking to set their Opening Day 28-man roster, likely featuring 16 pitchers. Baldelli said, “one decision will impact a couple of guys,” so the front office and coaching staff continue to work through that. Following today's workout, the Twins will have a quiet day tomorrow before kicking off their 2022 regular season at 3:10 pm on Friday. View full article

I guess my thought process is that there's a good amount of doubles and triples in there. I have consistently been high on his power, but 30 just seems like such a big number for him, even if he was on pace for 50 last year. Willing to be proven wrong.

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The Minnesota Twins are expected to compete for the American League Central division crown once again in 2022. After the 2021 season wound up being a flop, it was clear the front office went out looking to push the envelope this offseason. Now with the roster set, who’s going to beat the odds? There’s no denying that the Twins have among the best starting lineups in all of baseball. It’s been a question, and a fair one, if they have enough pitching. While everything on paper suggests that this team will be there at the end, it’s worth wondering which contributors will get them there. Each season sportsbook Bovada puts out over/under numbers for individual performances. While Byron Buxton being a longshot MVP candidate at 30/1 as of April 3rd is a fun one to look at, these numbers are a bit more focused. Here are some of my favorites: Byron Buxton 26.5 Home Runs (Ted's Take - Under) Do I think Byron Buxton has a legitimate path to an MVP award? Absolutely. Do I think he’s going to barely miss 30 homers? I’m less sure. Buxton’s numbers in 61 games last season were eye-popping. The 19 homers put him on pace for 50 over a 162 game season. I have always contended Buxton is more of a 20 home run guy than he is 20 stolen bases because the power would often put him at second base or rounding them all, that said, I’m not quite ready to believe he’s in for 27 or more. Prove me wrong. Carlos Correa .280 Batting Average (Ted's Take - Under) Batting average isn’t all that useful in today’s game, but this number stuck out to me. Correa is a .277 hitter who has surpassed .280 just once when he batted .315 back in 2017. I absolutely expect Correa to be an impact player with an OPS north of .800 for the Twins, but think it comes more from on-base and slugging percentages as it has over the course of his career. Correa has raked at Target Field, and he’s noted being plenty comfortable there, but the average is one I’m not yet on board with. Carlos Correa 25.5 Home Runs (Ted's Take - Over) Remember how comfortable Correa is at Target Field? Sure, he was previously hitting against Twins pitching, but he’s also crushed the AL Central division as a whole. I’d expected the former Astros shortstop to put up big power numbers, and he’s coming off a career-high 26 longballs last season. Back in 2019, Correa blasted 21 dingers for Houston in just 75 games. With the idea of playing for another big payday given his opt-outs, I wouldn’t be shocked if Correa pushes power and enters the MVP discussion. Gary Sanchez 25.5 Home Runs (Ted's Take - Over) I think everyone in Twins Territory is hoping that a change of scenery provides a fresh start for the former Yankees backstop. There was a time Sanchez was among the best power hitters in baseball. He’s just two years removed from a 34 home run campaign, while also being an All-Star, and the removed pressure of New York could help to bring that back. 26 homers is a relatively modest number, and even while routinely being benched last season, Sanchez hit 23 homers in 117 games. Miguel Sano 31.5 Home Runs (Ted's Take - Over) We’ve seen that Sano put in work this offseason shedding 25 pounds, and this could be the final year he’s in a Minnesota uniform. Even with just a .778 OPS last season, Miguel still hit 30 home runs. 32 dingers would be just two shy of the 34 he hit during the Bomba Squad season, and from June 1 on last season Sano brought his OPS back north of .800. Playing for his next contract should be some added motivation, but even an average version of the Twins' first basemen could run into a lot of long balls. Needing 39 homers this season to reach 200 for his career, I wouldn’t bet on Sano coming up short. Sonny Gray 9.5 Wins (Ted's Take - Over) Minnesota’s new de facto staff ace in taking over as a clone of Jose Berrios, Gray hasn’t won more than nine games since 2019. Pitcher wins are a goofy statistic, but I’m dabbling here because this number seems influenced by bad Cincinnati Reds teams. Gray is a good arm, now back by a good lineup. He’s been a double-digit game-winner in five of his nine big league seasons, and that includes when pitching in Yankee Stadium with bad numbers during 2019. Gray will be expected to should the load for Minnesota, and his arm talent is more than enough to do so. Minnesota Twins 81.5 Wins (Ted's Take - Over) While there's no denying this Twins club could use more starting pitching, every projection system has them in the mid-80's for a win total as currently constructed. There may be an opportunity to add as the season goes on, and the lineup should certainly be a force to be reckoned with. The roster looks the part of a fringe postseason team, and getting there is going to take at least 85 wins. Now it's your turn. Regarding these six Over/Unders, do you agree or disagree? Leave your predictions below. View full article

The Minnesota Twins are looking like contenders in the American League Central. While the lineup is loaded at the Major League level, they’ll need depth and prospects to supplement along the way. Fortunately, the St. Paul Saints look up to the task. On Sunday the Twins Triple-A affiliate held their first full-squad workout at CHS Field before departing for Louisville where they’ll kick off the minor league season on Tuesday. Although more than a handful of players remained in Fort Myers, there was a good contingent of returning players getting work in. Last season the Saints got out to a slow start offensively, but that shouldn’t be the case this year as the club looks to be loaded throughout the roster with players that have Major League experience as well as guys that have significant prospect hype, Minnesota’s Triple-A affiliate should be more than a force to be reckoned with. Right now Toby Gardenhire’s club is filled with names such as Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda, and Royce Lewis. Gilberto Celestino broke out at Triple-A last season, while Mark Contreras had a coming-out party in 2021. Derek Fisher has significant big-league experience, and Curtis Terry has pummeled the ball in the minors. Gardenhire will have a challenge finding ample time for everyone to contribute. Now in his second season with the Saints, Gardenhire suggested the first month will be interesting due to the shortened Spring Training and Minnesota having signed some guys late. “Our roster might be a little up and down at times, but we’ve got a good group of guys and a good group of young prospects. I think they are going to help the big league team out during the season.” Looking at his lineup and hoping to start faster this season Gardenhire said, “On paper, it looks great, right? We had Larnach here to start last year and he ended up in the big leagues after one game or something. It’s a one-day at a time situation, but having Royce Lewis back, I’m happy for him. He’s a great player. He’s a great kid. I’m excited to watch him. Larnach is pushing the big leagues. I told him already I expect him to help out in the big leagues sooner rather than later. Miranda had a great year last year. If he can keep doing that, it won’t be long before he’s up there either.” “This group (Miranda, Larnach, Lewis) fit great in the big league clubhouse this spring. Miranda, nothing ever seems to phase that guy.” Gardenhire spent a good deal of time in the Major League dugout this spring down in Fort Myers as plenty of his players competed for the Twins. He talks glowingly of the talent he has close, both top prospects and veterans alike. It’s evident that Gardenhire is excited to coach a club that should have one of the best lineups in minor league baseball. For the Saints, and Lewis as well, it will be exciting to have Minnesota’s top prospect back on the field. He’s not going to have an immediate workload resembling no restrictions, but it doesn’t sound as though Gardenhire is worried about any setbacks or issues for the talented shortstop. When looking at the roster it’s fair to drool over the big names, but there’s plenty of sustainability here too when considering those under the radar types as well. Terry was prioritized as a free agent while big-league veterans will be present. Continued development of players like Contreras, David Banuelos, and Caleb Hamilton is going to be nice to see. Having been down this path both as a player and following in the managerial footsteps of his dad, Gardenhire gets it. He’s a quality leader, a strong developer of talent, and certainly going to have a front-row seat to a very intriguing Saints club in the year ahead. View full article

This offseason the Minnesota Twins signed Byron Buxton to an extension cementing their centerfield plans into the foreseeable future. Needing the talent to play alongside him, and provide depth, new outfield possibilities remain a key for the Twins. 2017 draft pick Mark Contreras could be among them. Drafted out of the University of California-Riverside, Contreras scuffled through his first three professional seasons. In more than 1,000 plate appearances the outfielder had never posted a single-season OPS better than .740, and it had declined each year. Throw in that he was impacted by a lost minor league season in 2020 and things begin to look ominous. Fortunately for both the Twins and Contreras, the organization continued to buy in and show faith. Last season starting at Double-A Wichita a corner began to be turned. Playing 19 games for the Wind Surge, Contreras got out to a strong start with an .803 OPS. As Minnesota needed outfield depth and the ripple effects were felt throughout the system, Contreras found an opportunity with the Triple-A St. Paul Saints. In St. Paul, Contreras drew regular starts and played in 95 games. His .248/.335/.493 (.828) slash line was a career-high, and the power production came seemingly out of nowhere. Having previously hit 23 total homers in his pro career, Contreras launched 20, 18 of which came for the Saints, and he did so while maintaining a strong on-base percentage. Now ticketed to begin 2022 in St. Paul alongside outfielders like Trevor Larnach and Gilberto Celestino, Minnesota’s crosstown affiliate may have one of the most talented trios in the minors. For Contreras though, there was always a belief that this could happen, and a clubhouse mix that made him feel comfortable may be to credit. “Tuning in to my approach at the plate made a big impact. Talking to Smars (Tyler Smarslok) and our old hitting coach Borgs (Matt Borgschulte), they really helped dial me in there. The clubhouse was good to me. We had a lot of vet guys, you know J.T. Riddle, Drew Maggi, and my roommate Sherman Johnson. They really helped me understand myself a little bit more and playing the game within the game.” Getting comfortable both at the plate and while handling success is part of the developmental process. It was clear Contreras had somewhat of a new approach, but it wasn’t necessarily intentional to bring the power along the way. “I’ve always known I could (hit for power) I just was making better contact and the ball was doing what it was doing. I showed myself I can do that, and I’m excited for this year. Again, a lot of respect and thanks to those guys last year because they really helped me dial that in.” When going through it at the dish, Contreras has always remained a strong defender and taken pride in that part of his game. “My dad always told me to separate the two. If you’re not having a good day at the plate, you can’t take that out to the field. You can’t take a bad play in the field to the plate, bounce back either way. Going good at the plate really helped me to relax out there as well.” As Minnesota struggled down the stretch at the Major League level last season it was worth wondering if Contreras would get the call. Now starting at the highest level of the minors, he’s as close as ever, and a repeat of 2021 could have him in contention for a big league debut sooner rather than later. View full article

Back in 2016, the Minnesota Twins took a pitcher in the 13th round of the Major League Baseball draft. A 21-year-old out of the University of California, Ryan Mason pitched 49 innings in his pro debut. Now he’s knocking on the Twins door from St. Paul. A lackluster pro debut as a starting pitcher, Ryan Mason quickly made the jump to the bullpen. Dominating for Cedar Rapids in 2018, he repeated the strong numbers in 2019 when making it to Double-A Pensacola. While the missed season in 2020 helped no one, Mason didn’t let the non-existent game action deter his focus. Starting 2021 at Double-A Wichita, Minnesota’s newest affiliate, Mason repeated his outstanding numbers from the year before. While he allowed zero homers in 23 innings with Pensacola, Mason also jumped the strikeout tally to double-digits per nine for the first time in his career. With Wichita, the strikeouts remained and the long ball stayed in check. After getting to Triple-A St. Paul in the second half of the season, it became apparent something new was working for the Twins prospect. Mason posted an outstanding 12.1 K/9 with the Saints, and the H/9 numbers were down as well. The only caveat to this step forward was that the walk rate saw a slight bump jumping to a career-high 4.7 BB/9. In going through a final workout at CHS Field before heading out to Louisville for the start of the Triple-A season, Mason had some insight as to his continued success. “Last season’s success was based on more sink action on the fastball which makes your offspeed better. I was always an offspeed first kind of guy, but last year I turned my fastball into more of a weapon with better downward action. My issue early on was getting people to not make contact with the fastball. I wasn’t getting it by a ton of people, but I was getting foul balls.” Mason noted that the lack of swing-and-miss stuff never got to him as the foul ball percentages always suggested he was keeping hitters off balance. The outcome of both situations is still a strike, so figuring out how to further expand the repertoire was always going to be a key. On whether analytics helped him to see what was available for the next step Mason said, “We have to (be interested in that), it’s the modern era. There’s no way you get around baseball without that anymore.” In changing his repertoire and adding a third look to his arsenal, he also sacrificed a bit of location. Noting the walks were up, Mason said “less accurate with the fastball early on in counts is probably where some of that comes from. What was a ground ball before that turns into an out now becomes a foul ball and I’m hunting for the punch out. I get deeper into counts now and every once in a while one gets away from you.” It’s not as though Mason’s walk rates are out of line for a reliever, and they certainly jive with an uptick in strikeouts for a guy looking to control the opposition in the box. Mason is now 27 years old as he knocks on the door of his big-league debut. While not all paths are created equal, it’s clear this is about when and not if for the talented righty. “I’ve had the same outlook my entire career. If you continue doing what you’re doing, maybe it takes longer than some, you’ll get a shot. Everyone has their own path, mine is just a little bit more resistant, it’s ok.” St. Paul kicks off their season on the road against the Louisville Bats on Tuesday. While calling CHS Field home, Mason is more than comfortable pitching in the park down the road from Target Field. “It gets tough at times down the line in right field, but for me guys try to elevate and that plays more for me as I’m a guy that throws down in the zone with a sinker.” Keep an eye on Mason this season early for the Saints. The Minnesota Twins bullpen has seen late bloomers develop into key pieces over the years, and the 2016 draft pick could take his turn this time around. View full article

The Minnesota Twins are now just a week from Opening Day, and while payroll flexibility remains, the reality is the runway is basically shut down. The bodies in camp are the ones to choose from going north. So, how did Derek Falvey and Thad Levine do? Coming into the offseason and lockout notwithstanding, the focus for the Twins had to be on adding pitching. The rotation was without its top two starters from last season, and middle-man Michael Pineda was also gone. The lineup needed a shortstop with Andrelton Simmons hitting the open market, and the lineup was likely to have a few new faces. Before giving out a grade, let’s look at what took place. Who Minnesota Lost this Offseason: Michael Pineda, Andrelton Simmons, Mitch Garver, Josh Donaldson, Ben Rortvedt, Chase Petty Who Minnesota Gained this Offseason: Carlos Correa, Dylan Bundy, Joe Smith, Chris Archer, Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela It’s an odd offseason when extending your best player to a seven-year, $100 million deal isn’t the top move, but that’s where we are. Minnesota paid the man and locked Byron Buxton up into the foreseeable future. He represents one of the best talents in baseball when healthy, and keeping him was always going to be a priority. Buxton is betting on himself with an incentive-laden deal that rewards performance. He can win multiple MVP awards if he can stay on the field, and the questions about whether he’ll break out no longer are present. Buxton was on a torrid pace last season before being hit by a pitch, and there’s been nothing this spring to suggest he won’t pick up where he left off. Trumping that move was the acquisition of what could be considered baseball’s best free agent. Carlos Correa wound up with the Twins following a hectic few hours. Despite the assumption that Trevor Story would be a target, the sides never came close to a deal, and a pivot to a premier option was made. Correa’s deal could effectively wind up being a one-year pact, albeit the richest infield contract in Major League history, but he’s certainly saying the right things about making a home here. In needing a shortstop, the front office didn’t just wind up with a defensive-only option as they opted for last season. Correa has won a Gold Glove and brings one of the best power bats at the position. He’s won a World Series and brings a winning mentality to a club looking for a resurgence. Needing pitching, Minnesota found a partner on the trade market. Sonny Gray could be had for an uncertain, high-velocity prospect with the Cincinnati Reds piecing out their roster. Gray looks the part of former staff ace Jose Berrios, which provides a strong presence at the top of the group. He’s a tested veteran that should be reliable and potentially take a step forward, leaving the hitters haven that is Great American Ballpark. With depth, a focus following the debacle on the mound last season, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer represent back-end options tasked with holding serve. Bundy is probably more of a number four than anything, and while Archer has upside if he’s healthy, there are no guarantees as that’s been something alluding him for years. The bullpen was always going to be rounded out with internal options, and bringing back a healthy Taylor Rogers was necessary. Adding a solid veteran in Joe Smith helps raise the water level as a whole. A couple of hard throwers at the top level of the minors could bolster this group as well. Swapping out Mitch Garver and Josh Donaldson for Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela is probably a net negative. Sanchez is not a good defensive catcher, though his bat may find a resurgence of sorts getting out of New York. Urshela had a poor showing in 2021 but was both sick and hurt. Being a good-to-great player at the hot corner in 2019 and 2020 is what the Twins are hoping to see. Judging the offseason requires the view of substantial give and take. The Opening Day payroll is likely to check in below where it was a season ago, but that’s not for lack of trying. Unfortunately, the Twins sat back again and picked their spots while also focusing on trades. That didn’t work as well with a lockout and left them at the mercy of any partner’s willingness. Spending handsomely on Correa was nice, but allocating the final dollars on the necessary top pitching option never came. There was the infamous “Have a freaking offseason” tweet last year, and I think there’s probably little denying that this crop is both more exciting and provided plenty of entertainment along the way. Minnesota didn’t need a massive overhaul, as much of the rebound should be expected to come from a lineup capable of being among the game’s best. The pitching is where the focus had to be, and while Gray is a substantial get, he’s not enough on his own. The rotation will primarily be dependent upon the health and effectiveness of the back-end guys. I still think there’s too much certainty being placed upon Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober; they have a combined 25 Major League starts. Minnesota has a ton of pitching talent at the top levels of the minors, but thrusting them in too early could result in a revolving door. As currently constructed, this is a team that should be in the hunt for a postseason appearance. The White Sox won’t run away with the division, and further additions by the front office could continue closing the gap. It was a good offseason, but the missing pitching move keeps it from being great. Grade: B+ What are you giving the Twins for their offseason grade? 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Now just a week from Opening Day most Major League Baseball clubs have their 40 man rosters set and are working through their final cuts before kicking off the regular season. Although we don’t have Opening Day on its original scheduled time, a full 162-game season following the lockout is as good as it gets. The Atlanta Braves are looking to repeat as World Series Champions, but they will be doing so with some new faces after letting franchise favorite Freddie Freeman walk. The American League will certainly be out to recapture the trophy, and there’s a ton of new talent being thrust into the highest level. You can look back at my 2021 picks here. A dark horse MVP candidate wound up taking the crown, and it was good to see Bryce Harper pick up his second iteration of that award. Here’s what I have for 2022. MVP: American League – Luis Robert (Dark Horse Byron Buxton) National League – Juan Soto (Dark Horse Manny Machado) Maybe Robert is a post-hype type player, but he’s far too much of an afterthought with just two seasons in the big leagues. Robert played just 68 games last year for the White Sox, but the 24-year-old posted a .946 OPS. He has the complete package of speed, power, and athleticism to make an impact all over the diamond. The strikeout rates are still ugly, but he makes enough hard hit contact to generate a strong average. Chicago should again be good, and that puts him in a good spot. Byron Buxton is going to be healthy this year if I have to manifest it into existence. Should that happen, he’ll find himself squarely in the conversation. He began 2021 on a ridiculous pace and was only overshadowed by Shohei Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Betting on himself in his new extension, that paying off early would be nice to see. On the National League side it really feels like the MVP is Juan Soto’s to lose. He’s an otherworldly talent that hits for average and power while having a great eye. I don’t think the Nationals are going to be very good this season, but if Nelson Cruz has any positive impact on the youngster allowing him to take his game up a notch, that’s pretty scary. It’d also be somewhat of a nice development to see Manny Machado step up in a big way for the Padres with Fernando Tatis Jr. out to start the season. He’s been close to an MVP award previously, and maybe this winds up being the year. Cy Young: American League – Shohei Ohtani (Dark Horse Luis Severino) National League – Max Scherzer (Dark Horse Logan Webb) If there’s a way to follow up an MVP award after putting up the best individual season baseball has ever seen, Shohei Ohtani could grab a Cy Young as an encore. The greatest thing working against him will always be the amount of starts he makes. That said, another year of learning the league, I think this could be his true breakout on the mound. Another step forward and he’ll be in the conversation with Gerrit Cole as the best pitcher in the American League. Speaking of Cole, his teammate Luis Severino looked to have elite stuff prior to dealing with injuries since 2019. If he’s at all healthy, I wouldn’t be shocked to see that play again. Max Scherzer jumps teams within the division, but now he’s in a place that’s willing to spend big. Paired with Jacob deGrom, the Mets have the best one-two punch in baseball. New York should be a very good team, and those two arms are going to do the heavy lifting. It’s been a few years since Scherzer won a Cy Young, and maybe he tired a bit in the postseason last year, but I think he shows well for his new club. San Francisco Giants star Logan Webb is an intriguing choice here. He’s not far down the list of odds, but may be somewhat of an afterthought. The Giants probably won’t be as good this season, but Webb could take another step forward as he cements himself as a legitimate ace. His FIP was sub 3.00 last season and the strikeout numbers are there. It wouldn’t shock me if he puts up a head-turning performance. Rookie of the Year: American League – Bobby Witt Jr. (Dark Horse Julio Rodriguez) National League – Hunter Greene (Dark Horse Max Meyer) It’s hard to go against the Royals superstar prospect Bobby Witt Jr. He’s going to make the Opening Day roster and looks like someone that should be an impact player from day one. Kansas City won’t be good, but they shouldn’t be terrible either. The highlight reel play on both sides of the ball are impressive, and he should be fun to watch from within the division. Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez may also be in the conversation, but that will largely depend on how much runway he’s given this season. Once considered among the best draft prospects ever, Hunter Greene’s debut should finally come in 2022. The Reds rotation has arms that need to still be moved, but Greene should see plenty of action for a team that’s clearly not trying. His stuff is going to play, and the triple-digit fastball is going to be fun to watch. If the Marlins promote Max Meyer with any amount of longevity destined for this season, he too could be in the running. Postseason: American League – Blue Jays, White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays, Twins National League – Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies ALCS – Blue Jays over Rays NLCS – Phillies over Braves World Series – Phillies over Blue Jays Toronto had a stellar offseason adding Kevin Gausman and Matt Chapman. Already having a strong rotation and top talents like Jose Berrios and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., it’s hard not to see them as the juggernaut in a competitive American League East. They picked up depth talents as well, and we’re already trending towards being among the best teams in baseball. I’d be far from surprised if they finish with the best record in the American League. On the other side, I think the Phillies give themselves a nice chance to play spoiler as somewhat of an underdog. The Braves and Mets are seen as the best in the division, but Philadelphia shouldn’t be far behind. Castellanos and Schwarber are two big bats, and the addition of the designated hitter hides the latter from playing the field. Bryce Harper is still the reigning MVP winner, and adding what they did to a formerly bad bullpen should help a lot. We’re so close to regular season action in a season that should bring the return of normalcy. It’s time to settle in for the fun. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

More than any season in recent memory, this one strikes me as the most unpredictable when it comes to the Opening Day roster. That’s partly because another pitching move should be coming, and the rosters have expanded, but the suitors for bench roles remain up in the air. In most seasons, we have a general consensus of one or two players that will make the final bench role for the big-league roster. This year Major League Baseball announced that rosters would start at 28 players, at least through April. That’s two additional spots beyond what has become recent custom. Let’s assume Minnesota uses additional openings on pitchers, given the likelihood that starters aren’t entirely stretched out, and we’ve got a 13 position player configuration. Knowing that the lineup will have nine starters and that Carlos Correa’s spring training debut looks like a pretty good glimpse of what it may look like on Opening Day, we have four bench spots to work with. Here’s how I see that shaking out: The Given (1): Luis Arraez As of this moment, I think only Arraez is marked in pen to start the season on the Twins bench. He’s a second baseman that’s below-average defensively virtually everywhere he plays but has shown positional flexibility. Arraez’s greatest asset is his eye and the batting average it generates. Despite being routinely shifted, he can spray the ball all over the diamond and is a lineup asset when healthy. If he’s not traded for pitching to a team looking at him as a starter, having this type of talent on the bench for Rocco Baldelli is a great commodity. The Assumed (1): Jose Godoy Claimed off waivers last week, Jose Godoy is a good bet to make the Opening Day roster because managers love third catchers. If Baldelli is going to use Gary Sanchez as his designated hitter in any given lineup, that means there’s no one to back up starter Ryan Jeffers. With Ben Rortvedt traded to the New York Yankees, Godoy is the lone option left on the 40 man roster. He’s a career minor leaguer with just a .723 OPS in over 2,000 plate appearances. That said, he’s only 27-years-old, and clearly, Minnesota thought something of him to file the waiver claim. Unless another option emerges at catcher through waivers in the next two weeks, this is probably who fills the spot. The Uncertains (4): Nick Gordon, Brent Rooker, Trevor Larnach, Gilberto Celestino Quite possibly the most challenging group to peg because you could go either way on a number of these guys. Larnach is easily the most talented of the group with the highest ceiling, but being a left-handed corner outfielder, he fills the same profile as both Alex Kirilloff and Max Kepler. Among this foursome, Larnach is the guy needing consistent at-bats most. He makes the club only if there’s an avenue for that to happen. Minnesota won’t include him to sit. Next in line would be Gordon, and for good reason. He filled a utility role admirably last year, even if the bat doesn’t really play. Gordon can take over in all three outfield spots, though his speed masks his arm strength. It’s a nice addition to a bench that hasn’t had wheels in some time, but that really comes down to how aggressive the Twins want to be on the base paths. For Rooker and Celestino, the situation couldn’t be more opposite. The former saw quick success but has basically become a swing and miss power hitter that struggles defensively. The latter struggled mightily in a premature promotion but has the chops to be an above-average defender in the outfield. Celestino’s impressive return to Triple-A could make him an enticing option for the fourth outfielder, but more seasoning on the farm makes sense too. The Doubtful (1): Jose Miranda It’s not as though talent suggests Miranda won’t make the club, as he dominated both Double and Triple-A last season. The problem is that there’s no straightforward avenue to playing time, and he needs to be more than a utilityman if the Twins want to start him on the big club. Miranda can play second, third, and first base. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the first man up, but barring a trade, it seems unlikely he’d unseat a guy more able to ride the pine. The Dark Horses (2): Tim Beckham, Daniel Robertson Two non-roster invitees have continued to generate at-bats this spring, and both have substantial big league track records. Beckham is a former first overall pick, while Robertson has done a good job filling in anywhere on the diamond in short stints. There’s probably more to like about Robertson’s game than Beckham’s, and despite the notoriety of the former Rays top pick, I wrote about the other guy being a dark horse to watch this winter. Either of these two would need a 40 man addition should they be chosen, which is, of course, another scenario working against them. Assuming Luis Arraez is among them, who are your three favorites to fill out the Minnesota Twins bench on Opening Day? View full article

We are less than two weeks away from the 2022 Major League Baseball regular season. The free agent frenzy was every bit the excitement we had hoped for following the lockout and teams are largely complete at this point. The American League Central Division had just one Postseason participant, but the hope would be for two with the field expanding to 12 teams. The Chicago White Sox return as the division winners and will look to carry that crown for a second season. While there’s no juggernaut here, it should be expected that there’s no cellar dweller either. Here’s how I see the division shaking out with PECOTA projections in parentheses. Chicago White Sox 89-73 (91-71) Chicago really didn’t do a whole lot this winter, but they also really didn’t need to. Having Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez for a full season will represent the greatest benefit they could gain from the offseason. Kendall Graveman makes an already good bullpen better, and Joe Kelly only enhances that. They should still have a very strong lineup, and the hope would be continued dominance from the rotation. There’s no doubt that they are the favorites here. Minnesota Twins 85-77 (86-76) If there’s a team that could go up or down more than almost any other in baseball it could be Minnesota. Byron Buxton is a superstar, and now he has a partner in Carlos Correa. How much resurgence could Gary Sanchez or Gio Ursehla find in their new home? Sonny Gray is a dependable arm, but from there it’s questionable veterans and untested rookies. If things go bad, it will likely be because the arms simply weren’t enough. This could be a very good team, a mediocre team, or a relatively bad team virtually all tied to what happens on the mound. Detroit Tigers 77-85 (67-95) Javier Baez’s deal with Detroit surprised many because of the assumed tie between Carlos Correa and A.J. Hinch. Baez has plenty of flaws but some of them are a bit overstated. He gives a winning presence to a team on the cusp. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson should be in the lineup soon, and Akil Baddoo turned out to be a bad man last year. I don’t know how well they’ll pitch, but acquiring Eduardo Rodriguez was a smart move. Kansas City Royals 75-87 (70-92) Prospects are the name of the game for the Royals. Bobby Witt Jr. looks like a superstar as does both M.J. Melendez and Nick Pratto. Salvador Perez put up insane numbers a season ago and will look to replicate that performance. Pitching is questionable here too, and I’m not sure Zack Greinke has much left in the tank. The bullpen is uninspiring, and there’s plenty of lineup holes. They’re getting better, but not there yet. Cleveland Guardians 73-89 (77-85) You don’t have to look much further than the newly named Guardians to find the Central’s most rudderless team. The farm system isn’t elite, but the Major League roster is also barren. Jose Ramirez is amazing, and a healthy Shane Bieber is lights out, but beyond that there’s very little to like here. A lot of post-hype prospects and guys that have ceilings they never got close to touching reside on this roster. Alongside their lack of spending this offseason, deciding not to blow it up was a weird path forward. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Despite rumors linking Johnny Cueto to the Twins last week, Minnesota pivoted to former Tampa Bay Rays starter Chris Archer. Inking him to a one-year pact, the Twins now have numerically rounded out their rotation... at least for now. Having been a fan-favorite link in trades for some time, Chris Archer is no longer the pitcher he once was when he was a two-time All Star with the Tampa Bay Rays. Spending the first six seasons of his career there, the talented righty put up a 3.63 ERA in just shy of 1,000 innings. The Rays flipped him to the Pittsburgh Pirates for both Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow. Both have gone on to become mainstays with Tampa, and the Archer trade could understandably be described as the worst trade return in franchise history. Unfortunately for both Pittsburgh and Archer, it was a mix of ineffectiveness and unavailability. His strikeout rate jumped to 10.7 K/9 during his 172 innings for the Pirates, but his walk and home run rates also jumped by nearly a full digit as well. Pitching just 172 innings with Pittsburgh, Archer underwent surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome in the summer of 2020. Return from shoulder surgeries has been been much less predictable than elbow surgeries. TOS is the same surgery former Minnesota hurler Phil Hughes underwent before he ultimately retired. He returned to the mound in 2021 as a member of the Rays organization. Archer made five starts and tallied just 19 1/3 innings pitched. His fastball velocity had declined roughly two miles per hour from where it was in 2019, but his 4.66 ERA was buoyed by a 4.26 FIP. It’s a pretty big ask for Minnesota to find the former All-Star arm, but Wes Johnson’s calling card is velocity and they are likely relying on data that suggests more can still be squeezed out. With a $10 million mutual option on the table for year two, it stands to reason Archer believes there’s something left in the tank as well. In signing with Minnesota, Archer essentially fills the vacancy left by Michael Pineda. Although Archer has been consistently unavailable the past two seasons, there’s hope the lack of mileage on his arm could spring a rebound. The Twins decided to move on from Pineda in that they never contacted him before a deal he inked with divisional foe, Detroit. Sonny Gray becomes the Twins ace at the top of their rotation. He was acquired in a move to solidify the group, and he brings a package very similar to what Minnesota knows from Jose Berrios. Needing to overhaul the group as a whole, Gray and a depth add or two shouldn’t be considered enough. Archer falls in the latter category, as does the previously signed Dylan Bundy. For the Twins, challenging the best will still require one of the trades they’ve been connected to being completed. Whether it’s Oakland Athletics pitchers Frankie Montas or Sean Manaea, or it’s a different direction entirely, another arm is necessary. By paying Archer just $3.5 million in guarantees, the deal allows the Twins financial flexibility to make another addition. A season ago, the Twins needed to bolster the middle of their rotation to strengthen the group as a whole. Matt Shoemaker being a low-ceiling option that completely busted hurt them significantly. Signing Archer and moving someone like Josh Winder, Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan to Triple-A on Opening Day is a strong step towards a better group. Derek Falvey knows he has a long list of pitching prospects nearly ready for their big-league debut. He also has Ober, who was named the Twins Outstanding Rookie last season and could be hanging onto him as a depth option. By giving the rotation a steadying veteran presence, while also adding at the top, the rotation overhaul is obvious and significantly more sustainable. You shouldn’t expect Archer to be anything extraordinary for Minnesota, but that’s not the role he’s being brought in to fill either. A couple of All-Star appearances and postseason exposure to his credit, Archer has seen a thing or two around the game. Expected to hold serve on the back half of the rotation, his floor can still be tested by an incoming wave of talent. The next starter can join Gray at the top while Falvey puts a bow on what will have been the Twins most exciting offseason in history. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

The Minnesota Twins selected Trevor Larnach with the 20th overall pick in the 2018 Major League Baseball draft. He was coveted for his big bat with noted exit velocity surplus. That’s played in the minors, and we got just a glimpse last season. Now, it’s time for the real thing to show itself. In 79 games for the Twins last year, Larnach slashed .223/.322/.350. The on-base percentage isn’t a negative, and while the average isn’t where you would like to see it, the most glaring issue was Larnach’s slugging percentage. During Larnach’s age-22 season in 2019, he played 127 games between High-A and Double-A. That year he blasted 13 long balls and owned a .458 SLG. He was one of the best prospects to play at the 2020 alternate site, and his bat has always been his best tool. Larnach has plenty of pop, and his game power carries over just as much as the raw stuff displays. Where it was evident that something was off came following the demotion to Triple-A St. Paul in 2021. Despite dealing with struggles in acclimating to big-league life, Larnach went to the Saints for his first Triple-A exposure and slashed just .177/.323/.373 in 14 games. Once again, his eye and plate discipline hadn’t left him, but the power presence was virtually gone. Larnach was plunked by a pitch on his left foot in late May last season. As a left-handed batter, that leg is his load side, or basically where all the weight is distributed initially when swinging. The injury immediately left him in a walking boot, and manager Rocco Baldelli said, “He's just not moving around great.” Up to that point, admittedly a small sample of just 20 games, Larnach had an .845 OPS with his first three major league home runs to go with it. Returning to the lineup just days later, Larnach went on to play another 59 games for Minnesota, in which he posted just a .622 OPS. As a rookie looking to establish a regular cadence towards playing time, fighting through injury is a tale as old as time. While the injury is certainly not the sole factor in Larnach’s struggles, it’s probably a pretty significant influence. When the dust settled last year, Larnach finished with just a 33.5% hard-hit rate, and he put balls on the ground 46% of the time. His average exit velocity checked in at 90 mph, and the max came with a whopping 116 mph clubbing. The barrel percentage was just 9.5%, and it all goes back to a guy showing less than what was initially expected. Coming into 2022 with a clean bill of health Larnach can be a bit looser. Although he’ll need to work for at-bats, likely staring at Triple-A, with Alex Kirilloff slated to start in left field. If something is going against him, it’s that the Twins outfield is so dominantly left-handed, and therefore he doesn’t bring any sort of platoon advantage to the lineup. In just a 13 at-bat sample size this spring, Larnach is undoubtedly making his claim for a turnaround. He’s generated two separate three-run blasts and owns a 1.067 OPS. It’s hard to take too much away from games that don’t count with pitchers working on specifics rather than complete dominance, but it’s more than clear to see this is a hitter with his feet under him. I’m not sure how Baldelli will manage the playing time in the outfield. Designated hitter is now less of a revolving door with the addition of Gary Sanchez, so that takes away from opportunity as well. Expect Larnach to force Minnesota's hand in St. Paul though, and a cross-town promotion will come sooner rather than later. No matter what, banking on anything but the impressive emergence from the former Beaver seems like a bad bet for the year ahead. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article