Vanimal46

3 guarantees in life. Death, taxes, and fans wildly overreacting about depth signings. He’s making $50k over the minimum and can be easily DFA’d if other opportunities present itself. Every team needs depth. That’s all this signing is.

If any of these guys can ride the AAA/MLB shuttle it could be worth a look. Otherwise nah. No reason to clog the 26 man roster with players out of options. Jeff Hoffman- out of options. Pass Lou Trivino - 2 option years. Possibly. Brian Anderson - says N/A on FanGraphs so I assume that’s none remaining? Pass. Elieser Hernandez - 1 option year remaining. Still, probably not. Hunter Renfroe - Also says N/A on FanGraphs. Probably not.

Bingo. It was likely a mix of the injuries he suffered (titanium rod in his leg) and getting too comfortable that resulted in his downfall the last 3 seasons. Earlier in his career he could not resist the low and outside slider. Now it’s a much bigger issue… he can’t catch up to fastballs in the zone. His MLB career may not be over, but it is certainly on life support. A well below average fielding 1B who can hit .210 with 30+ HRs is not special enough to keep on the 26 man roster for long. It’s unfortunate that his career is trending like Chris Carter. Ironically, Sano and Carter are the top comparison on B-Ref’s similarity scores.

Who is saying this is a World Series team next year? Signing Correa long term is one step towards building a World Series caliber roster. We have upwards of $60-70 million to spend this offseason to match this years’ payroll. With a limited amount of roster spots to realistically spend on to reach that number. You’ve previously posted that spending big money for a front line pitcher like Rodon is no big deal. And spending big time money for a pitcher is the biggest risk in all of the major sports. So where’s the disconnect here? I’d like to spend big money on a position player who’s proven to be available for 120+ games a year and clearly one of the best players at a premium position.

What are you looking at to get these rankings? Rogers was worth 1 fWAR and -0.7 bWAR last year.

He’s had 3 bad seasons in a row. I’m begging the Twins. Please give up on him.

No brainer. There’s also no reason to extend him until we find out more about the pitching prospects after 2023.

The problem with using raw days lost to IL data is that teams use that as a loophole to keep a player in the organization instead of making a DFA decision. The Twins had that very scenario with Miguel Sano. It was very clear that he was placed on the 60 day IL a 2nd time because they were done seeing him in a Twins uniform. At the same time, I’m sure throughout the league there have been players who have exaggerated the extent of their injuries so they can continue collecting an MLB paycheck.

Correa is going to drum up interest from over half of the teams in MLB. That’s just reality. He’s a top SS in the game with abilities that should translate well as he gets older. Correa is not a big west or east coast star that we have to convince to play in the modest Midwest. He’s been on our team, knows the coaches, and has said on numerous occasions that him and his wife like it here. The latest (free) Gleeman and the Geek played a 12 minute clip talking with Dan Hayes. He shared that Correa made impacts in every facet of the organization. Why would we not fight tooth and nail to retain this guy? We have the money to make this a long term relationship and finally end the revolving door of shortstops over the last 20+ years.

I don’t think Falvey and Levine view Jeffers as a primary catcher moving forward. He does well against LH pitching, but there’s not enough pop against RH pitching. Pursuing Contreras is plan C (no pun inteaded) for me. If we strike out signing any of the top 4 FA SS or Rodon, then go for it. Ideally, the Twins indeed sign one of the 4 top FA SS, and they dedicate less money to a C option like Omar Narvaez or Roberto Perez.

I appreciate the way John describes each priority level in corporate terms. As we roll out the “product” on the go-live date of opening day, this is how I would prioritize the needs. High Priority: 1-A: Shortstop - I agree with you both that there is not a capable SS on roster who can start opening day. The product will simply fail without addressing this in some way this winter. 1-B: Top of the order bat - This need could be addressed by re-signing Correa and solve both needs. If they do not sign one of the top 4 FA SS, then this need has to be taken care of through another upgrade. The product will fail if we lose a top of the order bat in Correa and supplement him with a bottom of the order bat like Andrus/Iglesias/etc. Medium Priority: Late inning bullpen arm - We may have enough quantity of arms for the bullpen now to “go-live”. Adding another one will optimize the product even more. Catcher - We have a functional catcher already in Jeffers. We could use a good partner in crime to call a good game for the young pitching staff. Backup CF - We could go live with Celestino again, but he needs AAA seasoning. We all know Buxton is likely to miss quite a bit of time in CF. Low Priority: Starting pitching - Unless Rodon falls into our lap for another 1 year deal, or there’s a trade for a better than Sonny Gray pitcher available, I’m not too interested. We can wait until phase 2 (trade deadline) and try internal resources first. Right handed OF bat - A nice to have. Not a make or break requirement to go live.

If that’s how things turn out, then Trea Turner is a nice prize to go after as well. 4 quality free agent short stops, and there is no reason the Twins can’t sign one of them.

Falvey and Levine weren’t hired to hand out 9 figure contracts to free agent starting pitchers. Nor do I want them to. In the spirit of Halloween, there’s a cemetery full of horrible FA SP investments in the last decade. That will sink a team like the Twins.

Rare look inside the board room with Jim Pohlad, Derek Falvey, and Thad Levine.

I expected many opinions and hawt taeks on the new athletic trainer since the last one was the scapegoat for everything that went wrong in 2022 /s.

Yes. My previous post was negative about the Pressly deal. The Donaldson trade is one of my favorites in the Falvey/Levine tenure. I commend them for getting out of the last 2 years (and option in 2024) of the contract without eating any of the money. And getting 2 decent contributors on short term contracts.

Pressly would have looked good in a Twins uniform for the last 4 seasons. It’s still one of my least favorite trades in Falvey and Levine’s tenure.

I haven’t decided anything. I’m simply pointing out that there’s a very fine line with Arraez when he doesn’t have any power ability. I think injuries played a major factor in his underwhelming 2nd half at the plate and the field. You’re the only one I’ve seen who has definitively said Arraez is no longer a 2B. As far as trades including either Polanco or Arraez to improve 2023, who knows. Does Miami bite on a trade of Arraez and Larnach for Lopez? We don’t know. I believe you’re also in the camp of either going big or rebuilding. Trading Polanco or Arraez doesn’t need to happen immediately. If we don’t re-sign Correa or the other top 3 SS free agents, then they can decide to trade one of these players for a prospect package or MLB talent.

Based on the defensive stats posted here, neither should be an every day 2B. If Polanco is one of the worst in UZR and Outs Above Average then Arraez can’t do much worse. Choose one and flip the other. If Arraez is indeed just a DH or 1B then it’s imperative to move him before he becomes an empty .280 hitter like Jason Tyner.

Haven’t heard or read any statement that he is no longer a 2B.

Last year I wanted the Twins to make a decision on Polanco and Arraez at 2B and sell high on the one they didn’t choose. Still feel that way this offseason. As entertaining Arraez is, I lean towards trading him over Polanco. The story no Twins fan wants to talk about is how empty Arraez’s 2nd half numbers were at the plate. I know he was hobbling around playing through injury. However, without any power ability, he’s got to be producing like the 1st half all the time. Otherwise an empty .275 BA is no better than Jason Tyner.

Kodai Senga has the most upside of the group. Electric stuff and the unknown element of playing in NPB. I’d be happy to sign him.

Investing in Rodon long term terrifies me. He’s had a laundry list of severe shoulder and elbow injuries throughout his career. In 2021 he was dealing with shoulder fatigue and dead arm, causing him to be ineffective in the final stretch for Chicago. San Francisco rode him to career highs in starts and innings knowing he was opting out and they won’t re-sign him.

If/when we make a trade, we’ve got to be disciplined to trade from positions of surplus. Which, from my BarcaLounger, looks like 2B, LH hitting corner OF, and near-ready back of the rotation arms requiring further development. That’s why in my proposal to Miami (or Arizona) it’s focused on Polanco or Arraez as the headliner, a corner OF, and a pitching prospect (whether that’s Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Canterino, etc.) What made zero sense last winter was us trading away multiple catchers, turning a decent depth position into a deficit. As a result, we had to play a AAAA talent in Sandy Leon, and a AAA talent in Caleb Hamilton for weeks at a time.

Developing the arm is the correct answer. We’ve seen it year after year where Falvey bids up to a certain amount of years (5 for both Darvish and Wheeler) and another team tacks on the additional year to win the bid. If we go the trade route, which I prefer greatly over signing a FA pitcher, Miami is the clear choice to call. Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, and Max Meyer are all very intriguing options. I would try to see who they like most out of (Polanco or Arraez), (Larnach or Wallner), and a pitching prospect to get a deal done. If Miami doesn’t want to play ball, I would call Arizona and see if Zac Gallen could be had for the right price.