Jamie Cameron

It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers have helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence upgrades are required. Today, we'll take a look at Tigers closer Shane Green.Shane Greene, RHP, 30-years-old Detroit Tigers (26-50, 5th in AL Central) Under team control via arbitration through 2020 2019: 0.90 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 in 30 IP 2018: 5.12 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 in 63.1 IP Greene has a fascinating and up and down resume since breaking into the majors with the Tigers in 2016. He’s operated on an ‘even year bad, odd year great’ mode in his time with Detroit. Luckily for Greene, this is an odd year. Green was originally drafted by the New York Yankees in the 15th round of the 2009 draft. He was acquired by Detroit in a three-team trade that saw Robbie Ray head to the Diamondbacks and Didi Gregorious shift to the Yankees. Greene is earning a reasonable $4 million this season, and is under team control via arbitration through the end of the 2020 season. What’s to Like? Greene is essentially a three-pitch pitcher. He throws a 93 mph sinker (45%), an 88 mph cutter (28%), and an 81 mph slider (21% - a few miscellaneous pitches make up his remaining mix). Despite having very up and down numbers, there is lots to like about the consistency present in Greene’s peripherals. In his last two seasons of work, Greene has maintained a K/9 of at least 9.00 and a BB/9 of less than 3.00. Additionally, Greene has average a GB% of 46% over the last two seasons (it’s up 12% this year and a big reason for his success in 2019). Concerns There are a ton of indicators that Greene may be due for some regression in the near future. His 0.93 ERA is paired with a 3.56 FIP and 4.16 xFIP, in addition to an unsustainable .181 BaBIP. His BaBIP throughout his career has varied wildly and is supported this year by an almost elite ground ball rate. Greene’s 2019 .217 wOBA is in the top 2% of all pitchers, an increase in the usage of his cutter has supported this. In 2019, the pitch has generated an xBA (expected batting average) of just .143. It’s likely that Greene continues to pitch effectively and put up effective numbers in 2019. Greene would be a solid upgrade for the Twins bullpen but only as part of a two pitcher upgrade. He would give the Twins a controllable, solid high leverage arm but does not have the ceiling of Taylor Rogers and is not likely to continue to put up his gaudy 2019 numbers. See Also Felipe Vázquez, LHP, Pirates Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article

It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required. Who may be available? Today we're going to look at a Ty Buttrey of the Angels.Ty Buttrey, RHP, 26-years-old LA Angels (38-39, 3rd in AL West) Under team control via arbitration through 2024 2019: 2.52 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.60 K/9, 2.78 BB/9 in 35.2 IP 2018: 3.31 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 11.02 K/9, 2.76 BB/9 in 16.1 IP Ty Buttrey is a relative newcomer on the scene for the LA Angels bullpen, and a welcome one. Buttrey was originally a fourth-round pick of the Boston Red Sox in the 2012 draft but came to the Angels from the Red Sox in exchange for Ian Kinsler at the 2018 deadline. It could work out to be a great deal for the Angels if Buttrey can maintain his current level of performance. Buttrey became the Angels closer at the end of the 2018 season. In a smattering of late big league innings, he put together a rare combination of a K/9 of over 11 and a BB/9 of under 3. He will be under team control through the end of the 2024 season. What’s to Like? Buttrey has a classic combination of size and tools to handle a role at the back end of any bullpen. At 6-6, 230 lbs, Buttrey has a 70-grade fastball which averages 97.5 mph in 2019 but he can crank all the way up to 100 mph. Buttrey throws his fastball approximately 60% of the time but also features a curveball (30%) and a strong changeup (10%). In addition to big velocity and strong command, Buttrey also has an excellent ground ball rate (around 45%), a combination which should allow him to occupy a high leverage relief role for the next 5+ years. Concerns There’s not a ton to be concerned about with Buttrey. His biggest concern is the lack of an established big league track record, which also means he has fewer miles on his arm than other options. Buttrey’s peripheral numbers are slightly worse than his ERA in 2019 (the reverse was true in 2018) with a FIP of 3.09. Buttrey’s ground ball rate has dropped significantly in 2019 (56% to 43%) although his 2018 MLB debut was only 16 innings. The biggest concern with Buttrey may be the price. With so much team control available to the Angels and a core featuring Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, there’s no good reason to move the Angels best bullpen arm. If they did, he would be one of the best arms available to the Twins at the deadline. See Also Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article

It’s easy, with the 2019 Minnesota Twins, for their excellence to get in the way of reason and rationality. On Monday night, I found myself screaming at the team after a magical performance by Jose Berrios was squandered by poor offensive execution. It was a totally unreasonable reaction to a team that had won 47 of its first 71 games. When considering the moves Derrick Falvey and Thad Levine made this offseason, it’s fair to say that most have worked out superbly for the Twins.When examining the performance of individual players, it’s important that context is factored in. What was their 2018 season like? What developments has the organization catalyzed in helping to maximize their production? Martin Perez should be viewed with such a contextual lens. The Twins signed Perez for $3.5 million with a team option year for 2020 (which they should pick up if he maintains his current level of performance). To put that another way, contract-wise, Perez was a lottery ticket reclamation project, who the Twins impressively turned around. He’s already been worth around $13 million to them based on his 2019 fWAR. Before we dig into Perez’s ups and downs, let’s set some historical precedent. Despite being a top prospect, it’s easy to overlook just how bad Perez has been throughout his career as a starting pitcher. In 2018, Perez put up a 6.22 ERA, his wOBA was .390 (bottom 1% of the league), xSLG was .471 (bottom 7% of the league) and his K% was 13% (bottom 1% of the league). Perez was, at best, a replacement level pitcher who gave up a ton of hard contact often. The addition of Perez’s cutter has completely transformed his outcomes as a pitcher. In 68.2 IP as a starter (he has 8.1 horrible innings in relief at the beginning of the season), he’s managed a 3.67 ERA, a .292 wOBA, and a K% of 22. Perez is in the top 5% of the league in Exit Velocity and Hard Hit%. To put it simply, he’s gone from giving up lots of hard contact, to less contact which is mostly soft. Perez really started to put things together in May. From the end of April to the end of May, he racked up 37.2 IP in six starts and gave up just 7 ER. Mechanical similarities and same-handedness had Twins fans ready to anoint the second coming of Johan Santana, then June happened. There’s been a ton of great work already published on Perez’s cutter. If you’re looking for a deeper dive on the pitch specifically, I’d suggest a great piece from Dan Hayes of the Athletic, or Twins Daily’s own Codie Christie, or a Baseball Prospectus piece from Aaron Gleeman. For me, pictures speak a thousand words, so I’ll just leave this beauty here (courtesy of Mike Petriello). One of the keys to Perez’s cutter has been his ability to locate the pitch, specifically down and in to right-handed hitters (more on that later). Perez has struggled more in recent outings, giving up 16 ER in his last 4 starts, so has he fallen off a cliff? What can we expect moving forward? Looking at Perez’s peripheral numbers is a good starting point when looking at small sample sizes, as they tell their own story. Download attachment: Perez1.png Perez had one clunker at the end of May in which he gave up 6 ER in 2.2 IP. Outside of this start, his May and June have been similar process, with slightly different results. There are however, a couple of notable differences about Perez’s setup over the last month. Perez’s vertical release point has dropped slightly.. Additionally, his horizontal release point has shifted towards the first base side of the rubber. It’s natural for pitchers release points to vary significantly throughout the course of the season, but in Perez’s case, it’s been accompanied by less pinpoint command. Download attachment: Perez2.png Download attachment: Perez3.png Perez is throwing a similar percentage of strikes from May to June. (63% in May VS 64% in June). What’s been significantly different between the two months is his LOB% (79% in May VS 44% in June - his career average is 68%). The side by side pitch heat maps show the location of Perez’s cutter and fastball. The left hand image in each pair shows Perez’s incredible stretch from late April to late May, the right hand image shows late May to mid-June. What’s noticeable about each pair is the consistency of Perez’s command when he’s in a groove. Perez consistently buried his cutter down and in to right handed hitter in May and has struggled to find the plate with it with consistency in June. Perez’s fastball tells a similar story. In May, the clustering is middle-in to right handed hitters. In June, his consistency is gone and he is leaving more fastballs middle up and inside to left-handed hitters. It’s not certain that Perez’s move across the rubber and a drop in his vertical release are causing these less consistent offerings, but his consistency in managing the plate has diminished significantly in his last 5-6 starts. Download attachment: Perez4.png Download attachment: Perez5.png It’s time we view Perez for what he is. He’s not consistently going to be the pitcher who threw eight shutout innings against the Astros on May 1st. Conversely, he’s not going to be the pitcher who gave up six earned in 2.2 IP against Tampa Bay on May 30th. In Perez, the Twins have created a viable mid-rotation starter whose performance has already paid for his 2019 salary four times over. If Perez continues his level of performance throughout the 2019 season, he’s a no-brainer to return to the Twins in 2020 and to a rotation with very little certainty surrounding it. Click here to view the article

It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required. Who may be available? Today, we'll take a look at White Sox closer Alex Colome.Alex Colome, RHP, 30-years-old Chicago White Sox (31-34, 3rd in NL West) Under team control via arbitration through 2020. 2019: 2.39 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 8.20 K/9, 2.73 BB/9 in 26.1 IP 2018: 3.04 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.53 K/9, 2.78 BB/9 in 68.0 IP Since his full-time switch into the Rays bullpen in 2016, Alex Colome has been a model of consistency at the backend of games for Tampa Bay and Seattle. In Colome, the Twins would be trading for an established closer. The White Sox acquired Colome from Seattle in exchange for Omar Narvaez in November of 2018, a very reasonable price for a high-end bullpen arm (although It should be noted that Narvaez is having a career year at the plate thus far in 2019, having amassed a 1.4 fWAR through his first 58 games played). Colome is earning around $7.3 million in 2019, and is under team control for one more full season in 2020 through arbitration (his age 31 season). What’s to Like? Colome has continued to put up excellent numbers for the White Sox in 2019. He is essentially a two pitch pitcher, featuring a four seam fastball and a cutter he throws at approximately a 40-60 ratio. Colome’s fastball tops out at around 94-95 mph range. Over the last 3 years only Edwin Diaz, Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Wade Davis have saved more games. This is in spite of Colome occupying a setup role to Edwin Diaz for Seattle for part of the 2018 season. Concerns There are a ton of indicators that Colome may be due for a regression in the near future. His fastball is down over one mph on average in 2019 (that’s an especially big deal if you only throw two pitches). Additionally, Colome has benefited from a .117 BABIP (compared to a career figure of .279). Colome’s K/9 has dropped sharply, although this figure has varied widely in his strong 4 year run between 7.8-11.2 K/9. Colome has also seen about a 10% drop in GB%, a sharp uptick in HR/9, and his FIP (4.22) and xFIP (4.59) belie his sparkling 2.39 ERA. Perhaps most alarmingly, Colome has gone from allowing approximately 4% of the pitchers opposing hitters contact to be barreled, to 14.1% in 2019, which is a figure in the bottom 2% of the league. Colome might be a solid add for a contending team in 2019, but the Twins should stay well away. See Also Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article

Thanks, I appreciate you reading!

Definitely a great candidate for a bounce back year. Low risk, high reward potentially

LOL. You should write a more comprehensive blog post outlining the rest and what they might bring to the table. Just chose 4 I liked. Didn't claim a comprehensive list.

This is an interesting thought. I'd respectfully disagree. I think it's more nuanced than that. I agree that most of the guys that can take the pen ceiling to the next level are gone, but I think there are guys who can still raise the floor. If they were punting the season, I'd agree with you. If they had given their internal guys more innings on the back end of a lost season last year, then it maybe wouldn't be a question that needs answering.

LOL! Thanks for reading! I only started writing for the site last season, plus two kids, school to run, I'll get my rate up when spring gets going!

Great noticing. Very Gordon-esque tale of two halves.

Agree, definitely a ton of other names to look out for. I specifically looked at RHP but LHP would have included Alex Wilson and Xavier Cedeno.

Twins fans became apoplectic on Friday evening when Cody Allen, coming off a horrendous 2018, signed a one-year pact with the Angels. Allen represented the last big-name, big-rep free agent reliever available besides Craig Kimbrel. Twins Twitter instantly descended into a level of chaos usually reserved for dystopian Jimmy Butler practice sessions or Vikings kickers. I’m not here to talk about the payroll (too low, and I have a right to complain about eight years of pretty garbage baseball). I’m mostly interested in answering the question who are some free agent relievers who could help the Twins in 2019?As we know from the Addison Reed signing, or the Rockies bullpen in general, relief pitching free agency is a fickle mistress. With all that said, there are a fair few intriguing arms left. Here are a few I think could help the 2019 team while they’re … getting the nucleus right. Nick Vincent ERA 3.99, K/9 8.95, BB/9 2.40, FIP 3.75, xwOBA .279, avg. exit velo 85.0 Vincent is one of my favorite under the radar FA relievers. He had a really solid 2018 with the Mariners, albeit in a ballpark which suits his game. He made his MLB debut in 2012 with the Padres. At 6’0, 185lb, Vincent does not overpower, with a four-seem fastball, cutter, slider, and changeup combination. His fastball averaged just 90.1 mph in 2018. Due to a combination of arm side run and rise, it generates a good amount of swings and misses for a pitch with poor velocity. Vincent finished 2018 17th (out of 310 qualified pitchers) in average exit velocity. His ability to induce weak contact, in addition to what should be a good Twins outfield defense, could set him up well in 2018. He made $2.8 million in 2018. Bud Norris ERA 3.59, K/9 10.46, BB/9 3.28, FIP 3.99, xwOBA .321, Avg. exit velo 86.6 In recent years, Norris has made the transition from OK starter to pretty good reliever, most recently for the St. Louis Cardinals. At 6'0", 215 pounds, Norris has a more stocky, thick body, and it’s reflected in the type of reliever he has become. Norris offers a hard, flat fastball the averages 95 mph which he combines with a cutter, his best pitch. Norris generated an outstanding 58 percent groundball rate on his cutter. Opposing hitters managed just a .117 ISO against this pitch and a wRC+ 64. Norris has retained an encouraging level of consistency in his two seasons of relief work, putting up almost identical K/9, BB/9, FIP, and xFIP between 2017 and 2018. He could slot into the back end of the Twins bullpen as a setup option, or even close games in a pinch. Norris earned $3 million with the Cardinals last season. Brad Brach ERA 3.59, K/9 8.62, BB/9 4.02, FIP 3.67, xwOBA .284, Avg. exit velo 86.8 Brach is an interesting name. He’s been one of the most consistent mid-tier relievers in recent seasons, amassing 4.3 fWAR over his last four seasons (Taylor Rogers was the only Twins reliever to amass over 1.0 in 2018). Brach is a large human, at 6’6" 215 pounds. He has a track record of excellent consistency in his last five seasons, pitching at least 60 innings in each with an ERA never surpassing 3.59. Brach offers a hard fastball which averages 94.5 mph, a slider, and a changeup. Brach’s fastball took a step back last year, losing some velocity and effectiveness. He also has some of the most worrying peripherals, his K/9 decreasing from 10.48 to 8.62 in the last two seasons, while his BB/9 has climbed from 2.85 to 4.02. He made $5.2 million with Atlanta in 2018. Adam Warren ERA 3.14, K/9 9.06, BB/9 3.48, xwOBA .344, avg. exit velo 86.8 The 31-year-old Warren is another solid option for the Twins. Warren has a track record of success, similar to Brach, amassing 4.8 fWAR in 3 excellent seasons with the Yankees. Warren has good, not great velocity to go with a good not great fastball. He generates most of his value from his slider, which, uniquely, he throws slightly more than his fastball, around 32 percent of the time. This is interesting considering the Astros success leveraging the breaking pitches of their staff to increase effectiveness. Warren made $3.3 million with the Mariners in 2018. Despite the Twins failing to land a bigger name FA reliever, there is still plenty of talent available on the FA market. Who would you like to see the Twins sign or trade for in the coming weeks? Click here to view the article

The hot stove is officially burning. With the trade of James Paxton to the Yankees on Monday, the offseason began in earnest. Over the coming weeks, Twins fans will be able to move from reckless speculation to analyzing the moves of their bold front office in addressing their pressing off-season needs. What’s evident in the work of the front office, is that they are not risk averse. With needs in the middle infield, bullpen, corner infield, and the rotation, Falvey and Levine seem intent on addressing them via as many angles as possible, including trades and player development. If there’s a personnel area that lends itself to free agency, it’s another strong relief pitching free agent class.Before adding, it’s important to examine what the organization already has. Last week, I took a look at some encouraging signs from Trevor May and his 2018 breakout. The Twins other primary bullpen asset is Taylor Rogers, an organizational success story who took strides to becoming a borderline top 10 reliever in 2018. If he can build upon his progress in 2019, its possible he can be a top 5 reliever. Bold claim? Let’s dig in. Rogers, a 2012 11th round pick, had occupied a typical LHP role in the Twins bullpen in his first two seasons. He was highly effective against LHH and struggled much more against RHH. There’s nothing unusual about that. In 2018 he took extraordinary strides that led to some truly impressive outcomes: 2018 (MLB rank among qualified relievers) BB% 6.25% (25th) xFIP 2.94 (14th) WAR 1.9 (11th) WPA 2.65 (9th) Rogers provided a set of qualities which, when spiraled together, make for a huge value add; left-handed, excellent control, and a high degree of success in high leverage situations. Similarly to previous seasons however, it was a tale of two halves for Rogers, which hinged around him adding a slider midway through the season. Before digging into Rogers’ new pitch mix, it’s worthwhile to examine his historical performance, particularly with regard to his lefty/righty splits, which usually separate elite left-handed relief pitchers from situational left-handed relievers. Here’s a breakdown of Rogers’ splits against LHH and RHH in his three MLB seasons with the Twins. Download attachment: RogersTable1.png These data are a testament to Rogers development over time. Rogers has gone from being completely ineffective vs. RHH to above average in 2018, posting career best avg., K%, and xFIP against opposite handed hitters. He has always been a highly effective pitcher against LHH. Nevertheless, his K% against LHH spiked dramatically in 2018 (36% K rate overall would put him eighth among MLB relievers, right ahead of Adam Ottavino). That Rogers is building on his strengths in addition to improving his deficiencies is a huge positive for the Twins. Rogers ability to pitch to right handed hitters makes him an extremely valuable commodity. He amassed an fWAR of 1.9 in 2018, good for fifth among left-handed relievers (for anyone who doesn’t appreciate WAR for relievers, read this). Dan Hayes beautifully detailed how Rogers added his slider midway through the 2018 season. Unsurprisingly, this significantly altered Rogers’ pitch mix – detailed below: Download attachment: RogersTable2.png These numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt given that Rogers only began throwing his slider in May, and in earnest approaching and after the All-Star break. Rogers add of a third pitch had a variety of positive impacts on his outputs throughout the season. Most obviously, Rogers slider reduced the load on his fastball, which is a good, if not great pitch. Despite mixing his slider into his repertoire cautiously at first, Rogers, per Hayes, is unyielding in his claim that he only gave up one hit on the pitch all year, a remarkable accomplishment for a new pitch folded in mid-season. The most dramatic impact Rogers made in 2018 was the improvement of his curveball, which went from a below average pitch in 2017, to a pitch worth about eight runs in 2018. Rogers made a variety of mechanical alterations to his curveball in 2018, under the tutelage of then bullpen coach Eddie Guardado. Guardado encouraged Rogers to increase his arm extension upon releasing the pitch, making his mechanics more repeatable. This is born out in Rogers improved command of the pitch in 2018. Download attachment: RogersImage1.png Rogers was consistently able to work his curveball down in the zone with his improved delivery. Rogers was so consistent with his curveball command that he significantly limited opposing hitters’ ability to contact the pitch. O-Contact% measures the frequency with which opposing hitters contact pitches thrown outside the strike zone. In the second half of 2018, Rogers ranked fifth in this metric among all relievers at 40.6% (league average is around 65%). Statcast offers visuals which illustrate Rogers’ command of his breaking pitches. Below are images of all the pitches Rogers threw in two separate outings. On the left, a 2017 outing against the Rangers. On the right, a 2018 outing against Pittsburgh. The blue graphics represent Rogers’ curveball, the yellow, his slider. Notice the tight clustering at the bottom of the zone is his 2018 appearance, compared to more of a spread from his breaking pitches in 2017. Download attachment: RogersImage2.png Rogers' improved command, combined with more horizontal and vertical movement on the pitch in 2018, resulted in an offering with a soul-crushing level of dominance. In 2018 Rogers gave up a .330 OPS, .015 ISO, and .152 wOBA via his curveball, with a 51.5 K%, a truly dominant pitch. As Rogers confidence in his new pitch mix improved, so did his results. After July 28th, he didn’t give up another earned run all season, an incredible run spanning 28 appearances, during which Rogers gave up a .119 avg., .147 wOBA, and a K/BB of 9.7. Extrapolating Rogers second half numbers to a full season is a mouthwatering, if foolish prospect. After the 2018 All-Star break, Rogers was the second most valuable reliever in baseball and raised his K/9 to 11.00. Parsing those numbers out over a full season and Rogers is the fifth most valuable reliever in MLB. While this may be an unrealistic expectation for 2019, Rogers is an incredible success story in player development and a high leverage relief pitching option the Twins should build their bullpen around for the foreseeable future. Click here to view the article

This sounds like a great counter argument you should put in a blog post @TwinsDaily

I distinctly remember watching Trevor May pitch in the spring of 2017 for the Twins vs. Team USA, tuning up for the WBC. May was looking smooth early against a loaded Team USA lineup before being removed with arm discomfort. A torn UCL and 16 months of recovery and rehab later, and May made his return to the Twins major league club in July, after a rehab stint primarily at AAA Rochester. Fast forward a few short months and May has established himself as a high leverage reliever in a Twins bullpen surrounded by uncertainty headed into the offseason.History May is a relative late bloomer and has been around for a long time. The 29-year-old was drafted in the fourth round of the 2008 June amateur draft. May found himself with the Twins after being traded for light-hitting center fielder Ben Revere. May made his big-league debut in 2014, showing solid stuff, but struggling consistently with command and control. Since his debut, there has been a constant question around whether he would feature as a starter or relief pitcher in a franchise particularly starved for the former. Prior to his 2017 injury, May logged around 200 innings for the Twins, typically showing signs of promise with peripheral numbers out-performing more mainstream stats. There were a number of indicators that show that 2018 was the year May made a significant leap forwards. 2018 numbers Here are some numbers which frame May’s 2018 excellence: Download attachment: Screenshot 2018-11-11 at 8.07.51 PM.png Pitch mix and values May offers a four-pitch mix which includes a four-seam fastball (94mph), curve (78mph), slider (87mph), and changeup (86mph). May’s fastball is relatively flat, with slightly above average velocity. He has good downward movement on his curveball and a changeup which generates a large number of ground balls. All this is fairly typical and would not lead one to the conclusion that May would produce the kind of results he did in 2018 (albeit with a limited sample size). This begs the question - how is May getting such outstanding results without truly mind-blowing reliever stuff? May’s July return did not herald any great difference in his pitch mix, save for throwing fewer sliders than previously. May threw his fastball around 60% of the time, his changeup around 10% of the time, and his breaking pitches the remaining 30%, with two thirds of those being his curveball. May’s greatest challenge (there weren’t many) was combatting the longball. In 2018, he had a HR/FB of 18.2% and a HR/9 of 1.42. Neither of these figures are disastrous, but he gave up four homeruns in limited work. In a season in which he had pitched 60 innings, we would have been on pace to give up 12 HR, good for a bottom 15 ranking among qualified relievers. The Twins already have a reliever for whom home runs are an Achilles heel (Trevor Hildenberger), so limiting the long ball will have to be a focus for May in 2019. Looking at May’s heat map of SLG% against his fastball highlights the challenge. He leaves a number of fastballs up and in to LHH and down and in to RHH. May had excellent control in 2018 (1.78 BB/9) but needs to establish better fastball command, as a lack of movement makes it a hittable pitch. Download attachment: Screenshot 2018-11-11 at 8.09.31 PM.png By contrast, a similar heat map of opposing SLG% against May’s curveball shows his ability to cluster location more tightly and the impact resulting from impressive command of a pitch. Download attachment: Screenshot 2018-11-11 at 8.09.43 PM.png Digging into opposing hitters’ outcomes against May’s pitch arsenal help to highlight the leap he took from 2016 to his MLB return in 2018. Download attachment: Screenshot 2018-11-11 at 8.09.52 PM.png May has shown impressive improvement throughout his pitch arsenal, including his fastball, but the primary reason for his breakout in 2018 was developing a high quality breaking and off-speed pitch, both of which have been outrageously effective, albeit in a limited sample. May is an unusual MLB success story, starting to put his considerable talent together in his age 29 season. Examining the tweaks that led to his improved secondary arsenal is key in determining what the Twins might expect from May in 2019. Download attachment: Screenshot 2018-11-11 at 8.10.06 PM.png The chart above shows May’s vertical release points for his primary pitches between 2016 and 2018. There is a noticeable drop in his release point on all three of his primary pitches. May’s release point drop has had a fascinating impact on all three of his primary pitches in 2018. Let’s consider his fastball and changeup first: Download attachment: Screenshot 2018-11-11 at 8.10.21 PM.png May has seen an increase in his GB% on his fastball, leading to less contact and a higher swinging strike percentage. The impact on his changeup was dramatic, with an increase in GB% of almost 45%. May’s changeup is not a newly dominant strikeout pitch, it just consistently generates weak groundball contact. May’s curveball actually resulted in a significant increase in fly balls in 2018. The biggest difference was May’s ability to command it down in the zone, resulting in a huge hike in strikeout percentage from 31% in 2016, to 47.1% in 2018. In short, the curveball became May’s go to strikeout pitch. Whether May can take another step forward in 2019 remains to be seen. It will depend on his ability to maintain incredibly strong 2018 numbers and build on a vastly improved arsenal of secondary pitches, in addition to keeping his fastball inside the yard. What seems to be clear however, is in a bullpen full of question marks, the Twins have found themselves a high leverage reliever to plug in alongside Taylor Rogers. Click here to view the article

From the Kansas City Royals bullpenning their way to the World Series to the Tampa Bay Rays breaking out the opener, reliever usage has become the most revolutionized element of baseball over the past five years. No matter how a manager decides to deploy his relief corps, one thing is certain: You need a good bullpen to win. Earlier, Nick Nelson took stock of the Twins relievers and detailed the importance of building a badass bullpen. Today, we’re going to take a deeper look into the numbers and try to identify some potential upgrades.Where Were They Last Year and Previously? It would behoove the Minnesota Twins to focus on improving their bullpen significantly in advance of 2019. By fWAR, the Twins 2018 bullpen was their best unit (3.0) since the 2013 iteration (5.1). Surprising? Not really. In recent seasons, the Twins have been a perpetual 2-3 fWAR bullpen team. Their off-season acquisitions performed fairly well before they were traded away. The Twins 2018 pen made some significant shifts in cumulative performance reflecting the organizational pitching direction (more velocity, more strikeouts). Consider the following: Download attachment: Bullpen1.png Despite achieving similar overall value, the pen went from almost last to almost top ten in strikeouts. While the Twins bullpen wasn’t a strength in 2018, it was improved. Significantly, if the Twins hadn’t been so remarkably out of contention by the trade deadline and had benefited from a full season of Trevor May, they would have ended up with four top 50 relievers (Taylor Rogers, Ryan Pressly, Trevor May, and Zach Duke). A Note on Elite Bullpens A cumulative fWAR of 4.3 or higher will land you a top 10 bullpen, pretty much every year, pretty much without fail. While the super elite bullpens (Yankees, Astros) typically net an fWAR of 8+ the Twins aren’t far from having a top third pen. Two Elite Options The Twins have two elite options at the end of their pen. For the purposes of this hypothetical, let’s assume two things; Trevor May pitches an entire season, and both he and Taylor Rogers replicate their 2018 performance in 2019. Rogers turned himself into an exceptional bullpen arm in the second half with a tweak to his pitch mix that resulted in the third best FIP in MLB (2.33) and tied him for 10th in MLB in fWAR (1.9 – tied with one Aroldis Chapman). Rogers has outstanding control (2.11 BB/9 – good for 16th in MLB), a solid 9.88 K/9, respectable numbers against RHH, sporting a .220/.267/.377 line against opposite-handed hitters. In short, Rogers is an ideal candidate for all high leverage situations in which the Twins need a LHP. May was another spectacular surprise. After returning from TJ surgery, May initially struggled at AAA. When he finally made it back to the Twins, May put up 0.6 fWAR in just 24.1 IP. May had a ridiculous K/9 (13.32 – good for 11th in MLB among relievers who threw at least 20 innings). May also had the 11th best swinging strike rate (16.4%). Over a full season of work, he gives the Twins pen another 1.5 fWAR pitcher, a right handed, high leverage bullpen option (who should not be solely tied down to a ninth inning role). What They Need While the Twins have two great options at the back end of the pen, they have little else. Trevor Hildenberger regressed to a replacement level pitcher in 2018 (although there was a one run differential between his ERA and FIP, and a 1.6 run differential between his ERA and xFIP). All the aforementioned top 10 bullpens from the last few years of MLB play have one thing in common: nine to 10 guys who put up some positive value (I’m using a fWAR of 0.2 or higher as my proxy here), in other words, depth. The Twins had only seven such pitchers last year, including Duke, Pressly, Fernando Rodney, Oliver Drake, and Kohl Stewart (who amassed some of his value in a unique bullpen role). After those seven, the Twins essentially had a slew of replacement level guys (Andrew Vasquez in limited work, Hildy, John Curtiss), or guys who amassed negative value (Addison Reed, Matt Magill, Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz), almost all of who suffered from problematic home run rates (a pain point for the Twins pen in general). The Twins could use one more excellent bullpen piece, but mostly, they need some solid depth (part of the reason not looking at Nick Anderson or Jake Reed at the end of last season was so criminal). Some Free Agent Options Whom might the Twins target? As you might expect in a particularly juicy free agent year, the relief pitching market is resplendent with options. To highlight some of these, I filtered through FA relief pitchers who are right-handed, assuming that between the elite Rogers, and the replacement level Moya, the Twins are about set with left-handed relievers. For the purposes of outlining some options, I also left out pitchers who have options remaining, like Nate Jones, Pedro Strop, Brandon Kintzler, in addition to pitchers I felt were way out of the Twins reach, like Craig Kimbrel (probably should have left Ottavino off too). Download attachment: Bullpen2.png The Twins have a ton of options for upgrading their pen, including internal options, trade, or targeting upgrades through free agency. What are your thoughts on the bullpen heading into 2019? Who would you pursue in free agency if you were running the front office? Click here to view the article

Oct. 3, 2016 is a significant date in Minnesota Twins history. The date that Derek Falvey was chosen to lead the Twins into a new organizational era was 22 years after Terry Ryan succeeded Andy MacPhail when the former GM departed for the Chicago Cubs. Ryan had enjoyed an outstanding run as GM between 2002-07, before stepping down temporarily to be replaced by Bill Smith. After his return in 2011, Ryan’s Twins never managed to reestablish their success, falling to 90-loss season after 90-loss season. The Twins had been left behind. The defense-first, pitch-to-contact, strike-throwing paradigm of the early 2000s team had transformed from an organizational calling card, to another example of how outmoded their approach had become.Arrival and reputations Falvey was hired away from the Cleveland organization. He came up as an international scout before occupying a variety of roles in baseball operations. In his time in Cleveland, Falvey developed a reputation as a keen baseball mind with an eye for pitching in an organization featuring Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber, two of the top 15 starting pitchers in baseball. When Cleveland acquired Kluber from the Padres, he was not among the organizations top 30 prospects. Kluber transformed from a Double-A pitcher to a Cy Young winner in four years, and has continued to dominate to the tune of 28.9 fWAR since the beginning of the 2014 season. Thad Levine came to the Twins from the Texas Rangers, part of a formidable front office duo with GM Jon Daniels for 11 seasons. Levine, similarly to Falvey, oversaw Texas’ international scouting department, assembling one of the stronger systems in the majors (until the Rangers dismantled it in a variety of trades in their window of contention). The duo’s arrival came with a wave of excitement. They were young, modern, analytical. A welcome change of pace for a Twins organization badly in need of a facelift. Dream start and June draft Falvey and Lavine stumbled into a dream scenario for any new front office: incredibly low expectations and a No. 1 overall pick. They took over an organization coming off a 103-loss season with a promising core of young players breaking into the majors. Approaching the June draft, there was no consensus No. 1, although Hunter Greene was heavily favored. High school lefty MacKenzie Gore, two-way college star Brendan McKay, and Vanderbilt ace Kyle Wright were also in the mix. Instead, the new front office duo selected Royce Lewis, a wiry high school SS out of California, with endless tools and a makeup which drew rave reviews. Lewis agreed to sign under slot, Falvey and Levine spent their savings on Blayne Enlow, a HS pitcher committed to LSU, sporting one of the best curveballs in the draft. Lewis, to date, has looked every part the No. 1 overall pick. In his second professional season, he already made it to High-A Fort Myers, and appears to be on track to becoming a superstar. The addition of Enlow followed a recent trend of teams signing their top picks under slot to add higher-level talent at the top of their draft boards. While Enlow’s performance has been slightly underwhelming so far, he’s still just 19. More important, it’s indicative of a new direction and approach by the front office, one predicated on buying as many proverbial lottery tickets as possible, an approach that foreshadowed the trade deadline fire-sale the Twins hoped they would not have to engage in at the 2018 trade deadline. The Twins also added college bat Brent Rooker in the 2017 draft. The former college slugger bashed 22 home runs and sported a wRC+ of 124 at Double A, and looks set to make his big-league debut in the near future. Smart hires Upon taking the reigns at Target Field, Falvey began the task of beefing up the Twins front office and analytics department, adding heavy hitter after heavy hitter to the Twins front office. New hires included Daniel Adler (Director of Baseball Operations), Josh Kalk (Senior Analyst, Baseball Research and Development), former editor in chief of Baseball America John Manuel, and supreme techno-nerd Hans Van Slooten (most famous previously for his work in developing the Baseball Reference interface). It’s a fascinating list of well-known sporting experts, and while it’s impossible to know the impact and synergy their work brings to the organization, it made another prong of Falvey’s plan crystal clear: Attract as many of the smartest minds as possible to the organization to build institutional knowledge and innovation. Offseason of opportunity After a surprise 2017 postseason berth in which the Yankees (as they are wont to do) pulled the Twins playoff ejector seat button, Minnesota had the type of active offseason that rendered even the most curmudgeonly fan unable to complain about the ‘cheap Pohlads’ any longer. In the winter prior to the 2018 season, the Twins added Addison Reed, Zach Duke, Fernando Rodney, Logan Morrison, and Lance Lynn to the club. For a Twins team in need of bullpen stability, extra pop, and a reliable mid-rotation starter, fans were understandably excited, and rightly so. It appeared the front office had capitalized on a slow moving free agent market by signing a number of high quality additions to short-term commitments. This premise of course, was predicated on their free agent acquisitions replicating (or coming close to) their 2017 performances. Rodney and Duke provided solid value, while Lynn, Morrison and Reed struggled in 2018, with the latter two combining for a -1.0 fWAR. With the benefit of hindsight, the Twins had a high-quality offseason, making additions that should have boosted the performance of the club more significantly. The willingness of the front office to be opportunistic in a slow market was a refreshing change of pace for Twins fans used to tuning out of free agent signing during the winter months. Roster management Boy, has this conversation become more interesting over the last week. Through the 2018 season, the front office has appeared to have an approach to the management of the big-league roster that does not mirror the progressiveness with which they operate the rest of the organization. They have often favored playing time and roster spots for veterans with little value (Matt Belisle) over evaluating existing organizational talent in the higher levels of the Twins minor league affiliates. This has been underscored in September. Nick Anderson has pitched 60 innings for AAA Rochester this season, in that time, he has accrued 88 Ks and an xFIP of 2.49. No September callup. Jake Reed put together a 9.44 K/9 and 2.96 FIP in 47.2 innings for Rochester this season. No September callup. The point here is not that Anderson or Reed are slam dunk big league options for the Twins, more that it seems preferable to determine (or begin to determine) their big-league ceiling in a lost season, as opposed to a new one in 2019. Why sacrifice an initial opportunity for experience at the major league level for veterans like Belisle who don’t figure to be in the Twins plans in 2019 and beyond? The news that Byron Buxton was not to be among the Twins September callups was in stark contrast to the previous actions of a front office grounded in a strong organizational direction and attempting to foster its core of talented young players. While it’s true that in Sano and Buxton, the Twins still have unproven quantities between injuries and poor performance, the front office took advantage of Buxton’s injury-plagued 2018 to manipulate an extra year of service time from their young center fielder. Thad Levine essentially admitted the front office play in a later interview, in which he described a need to ‘make amends’ to Buxton. If such a need exists, there’s a strong chance you screwed someone over. That’s a tremendous risk to take with Buxton himself, and given the fact that exactly none of the Twins young players are signed to long term extensions. Draft part two The Twins found themselves in a different position entering the 2018 draft. After a surprise playoff berth, Minnesota owned the 20th pick. The Twins elected to select another powerful college bat, adding recent College World Series champ Trevor Larnach of Oregon State. Minnesota followed that selection up with college catcher Ryan Jeffers, a player many analysts felt was over-drafted at 59 overall by the Twins. Both hitters have thrived at two professional levels in 2018. Larnach has managed a .303/.390/.500 line with five HR and 14 more XBH in his first 42 professional games. Jeffers has also thrived, with a .344/.444/.502 line with seven HR in his first 64 professional games. Both selections seem to be promising hitters moving through the Twins MiLB system at pace. Trade deadline With the Twins out of contention approaching the trade deadline, the front office wisely began to sell off impending free agents to acquire more talent in an already deep farm system. Falvey and Levine traded away Eduardo Escobar, Ryan Pressly, Brian Dozier, Lance Lynn, Zach Duke, and later, Fernando Rodney. While certain trades (like Dozier) resulted in a predictably unexciting return, the Twins netted some genuinely exciting prospects, particularly Jhoan Duran from the Diamondbacks, and Jorge Alcala from the Astros. Both are high velocity arms, Duran struck out 115 in 100 2/3 MiLB innings in 2018, while Alcala struck out 104 in 99 1/3 IP. The Twins didn’t have a huge amount of trade deadline leverage, so adding five prospects to their top 30 (MLB.com) seems like a solid return Extensions and organizational direction While the front office has worked hard to amass significant depth of talent throughout the minor leagues, they will undoubtedly be evaluated by their ability (or not) to lock up some of their outstanding young players. Throughout the winter, it was reported they offered extensions to some combination of Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, and Berrios. While their failure to sign any of them thus far is not a disaster, one wonders whether the Buxton fiasco will adversely impact their ability to do so. It’s worth remembering that not all front office decisions are created equal. Few, for example, have more significance for the future of the organization than their number one overall pick in 2017. In terms of simple talent acquisition, the front office has done an outstanding job through the draft, trade deadline, and even leveraging their international spending money creatively. The front office also appears to have a clearer organizational direction, acquiring lots of high velocity arm talent and high-power upside college bats. While Twins fans can be excited by these developments, their clumsy handling of Byron Buxton casts some doubt on their ability to lock up a core central to the Twins maintaining an extended window of contention. Click here to view the article