Jamie Cameron

Outside the box idea, Twins trade for Bauer and Garrett or Iglesias. Not going to happen, but I don't think it's outside the realm of possibilities that the Reds flip Bauer.

Super appreciate the feedback, add ons, and extra knowledge. Banked.

Since Derek Falvey took over the Twins in 2016, there has been an organizational emphasis in gaining an edge in and optimizing player development. Over the next few weeks, I’ll look at some Twins who are out-performing their projections, how they are doing it, and wonder how they might serve as a blueprint for future Twins prospects. Image courtesy of © Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports Since Derek Falvey took over the Twins in 2016, there has been an organizational emphasis in gaining an edge in and optimizing player development. Over the next few weeks, I’ll look at some Twins who are out-performing their projections, how they are doing it, and wonder how they might serve as a blueprint for future Twins prospects. In their book The MVP Machine, Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik succinctly summarized the focal point of the player development revolution: "Every team now knows which players are projected to be good. But the best teams are discovering ways for players to accomplish what they aren’t projected to do." Amidst an incredible 2019 Twins team full of surprises, no one player encompasses this tenet of player development more than Mitch Garver, who has transformed himself from fringey, solid hitting backup catcher, to a bat whose potency rivals that of Trout, Bellinger, and Yellich. It’s time for a saucy ode to Mitch-a-palooza, an incredible story in the ceiling of the player development revolution. Background Garver came to the Twins as a ninth-round pick in the 2013 Amateur draft (230th overall). Starting at Rookie ball in 2013, Garver progressed through approximately one level of the minors per season He quickly establishing himself has having a solid hit tool, strong on base skills and flashing some power -- hitting 29 home runs between two full seasons at AA and AAA. In 2017, Garver put himself firmly in the realm of intriguing Twins prospects, adding significant power to his swing which resulted in an additional .113 points of OPS from his 2016 stint at Rochester (more on this later). Garver got a cup of coffee in the majors in 2017 in which he struggled in the smattering of games he played but which laid the foundation for 2018. In 2018 Garver played 103 games with the Twins, putting together a .268/.335/.414 (.749) line, with seven home runs. In essence, Garver was a league average hitter (strong for the catcher position), with poor defense, who, nevertheless, put himself in a position to open the 2019 season splitting time with Jason Castro, himself returning from an injury ravaged 2018. Good to Great After his two home run performance on Monday night against the Yankees, Garver’s 2019 output ascended to new levels of incredulity. Among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, Garver’s 1.059 OPS and 171 wRC+ ranked fourth among all hitters, behind only Mike Trout (1.111 and 187), Cody Bellinger (1.124 and 183), and Christian Yellich (1.156 and 185). Rarified air indeed. To add more color and context to Garver’s hitting performance, he’s 3rd in the league in SLG, fourth in OPS, second in ISO. Garver’s 162 game fWAR pace is 8.4. In short, he’s a superstar. So what turned Garver from promising hitter, into one who upped his Barrel % from 5.5% in 2018 to 15.5% in 2019? Mechanical changes Towards the end of the 2018 season, Roy Smalley detailed some of Garver’s swing changes on FSN. Garver, he explained, had an uphill swing, meaning the torso/upper body is not well centered, resulting in Garver losing the barrel of the bat throughout his swing. Smalley went on the explain that James Rowson was working with Garver to be ‘short to the ball’, pulling the hands in front of the chest towards the ball and maximizing the amount of time the barrel of the bat is moving powerfully through the plane of the swing. Parker Hageman has posted several great twitter threads detailing Garver’s swing changes between his minor and major league careers. The following stills are taken from a video of his swing in a game in Toronto earlier in the 2019 season. In the first picture, Garver’s hands have dropped and pulled the bat down to maximize barrel time through the zone In the second screen shot, Garver’s barrel has now dropped lower, to just above his right hip, angled slightly upward to hit the ball in the air. His legs are positioned to torque and fire his hips as he completes his swing. In the final picture, the ball is finally in the frame. Garver’s bat has been accelerated through the zone and is ready to meet the ball. It’s an incredibly efficient swing with little to no unnecessary movement. Garver has transformed from having a promising hit tool, to having an extremely efficient, compact swing which maximized barrel time on plane, and, as a result, Garver has transformed himself into one of the best fastball hitters in baseball. Defense Another aspect of Garver’s development between 2018 and 2019 is his defensive work as a catcher. Garver’s defense was a noticeable hindrance to his ability to be a first option big league catcher in 2018. In 2018, Garver was worth -16 DRS (defensive runs saved) and -10.1 FRM (catcher framing runs above average. In 385 innings caught in 2019 (ahead of Wednesday’s rubber game against the Yankees), Garver has been worth +3 DRS and +0.5 FRM. Both Garver, and Twins Minor League Catching Coordinator Tanner Swanson deserve a ton of credit for this defensive improvement. In short, Garver has transformed from a poor defensive backup, to a slightly above average defensive catcher. Therein lies a key component of the Twins player development plans under Derek Falvey, amplify your strengths, and work to raise the floor of your weaknesses. Garver’s StatCast catching metrics show similar steady improvement. In 2018, Garver’s average pop time of 2.08 seconds was good for 72nd among 85 qualified catchers. In 2019, Garver’s pop time speed has averaged 2.00 seconds. That may seem like a nominal difference, but it’s huge when considering the margins involved in stealing bases (and that the best in MLB is around 1.90). Garver’s average of 2.00 is now good for 28th out of 64 qualified catchers. Why Doesn’t he Play Every Day? With Garver’s transformation into one of the elite bats in the AL, a relevant question for the Twins has become ‘is he getting enough ABs’? Garver is splitting time approximately 50/50 with Jason Castro behind the plate. It’s worth exploring getting Garver DH/1B ABs. Accruing Garver an extra 50-75 ABs over the course of the season seems like an easy way to optimize a lineup that has looked more like it’s May iteration in a tough series against the Yankees, an option the Rocco Baldelli should certainly consider for a playoff series. Garver is evidence that the fruits of Derek Falvey’s push to optimize player development are producing results. Indeed, as a 28 year old in his second MLB season, Garver is forcing us to reconsider notions of what to expect from prospects and the idea that players have a fixed ceiling. No one saw this coming. The Twins now have the best hitting catcher in baseball locked down until 2024. What do you think of Garver’s development this year? Do you expect him to sustain his current levels of performance? Who do you think is the Twins greatest player development success story this season? View full article

It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers have helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence upgrades are required. Today, we'll take a look at Tigers closer Shane Green. Image courtesy of © Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers have helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence upgrades are required. Today, we'll take a look at Tigers closer Shane Green. Shane Greene, RHP, 30-years-old Detroit Tigers (26-50, 5th in AL Central) Under team control via arbitration through 2020 2019: 0.90 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 in 30 IP 2018: 5.12 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 in 63.1 IP Greene has a fascinating and up and down resume since breaking into the majors with the Tigers in 2016. He’s operated on an ‘even year bad, odd year great’ mode in his time with Detroit. Luckily for Greene, this is an odd year. Green was originally drafted by the New York Yankees in the 15th round of the 2009 draft. He was acquired by Detroit in a three-team trade that saw Robbie Ray head to the Diamondbacks and Didi Gregorious shift to the Yankees. Greene is earning a reasonable $4 million this season, and is under team control via arbitration through the end of the 2020 season. What’s to Like? Greene is essentially a three-pitch pitcher. He throws a 93 mph sinker (45%), an 88 mph cutter (28%), and an 81 mph slider (21% - a few miscellaneous pitches make up his remaining mix). Despite having very up and down numbers, there is lots to like about the consistency present in Greene’s peripherals. In his last two seasons of work, Greene has maintained a K/9 of at least 9.00 and a BB/9 of less than 3.00. Additionally, Greene has average a GB% of 46% over the last two seasons (it’s up 12% this year and a big reason for his success in 2019). Concerns There are a ton of indicators that Greene may be due for some regression in the near future. His 0.93 ERA is paired with a 3.56 FIP and 4.16 xFIP, in addition to an unsustainable .181 BaBIP. His BaBIP throughout his career has varied wildly and is supported this year by an almost elite ground ball rate. Greene’s 2019 .217 wOBA is in the top 2% of all pitchers, an increase in the usage of his cutter has supported this. In 2019, the pitch has generated an xBA (expected batting average) of just .143. It’s likely that Greene continues to pitch effectively and put up effective numbers in 2019. Greene would be a solid upgrade for the Twins bullpen but only as part of a two pitcher upgrade. He would give the Twins a controllable, solid high leverage arm but does not have the ceiling of Taylor Rogers and is not likely to continue to put up his gaudy 2019 numbers. See Also Felipe Vázquez, LHP, Pirates Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target View full article

It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required. Who may be available? Today we're going to look at a Ty Buttrey of the Angels. Image courtesy of © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required. Who may be available? Today we're going to look at a Ty Buttrey of the Angels. Ty Buttrey, RHP, 26-years-old LA Angels (38-39, 3rd in AL West) Under team control via arbitration through 2024 2019: 2.52 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.60 K/9, 2.78 BB/9 in 35.2 IP 2018: 3.31 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 11.02 K/9, 2.76 BB/9 in 16.1 IP Ty Buttrey is a relative newcomer on the scene for the LA Angels bullpen, and a welcome one. Buttrey was originally a fourth-round pick of the Boston Red Sox in the 2012 draft but came to the Angels from the Red Sox in exchange for Ian Kinsler at the 2018 deadline. It could work out to be a great deal for the Angels if Buttrey can maintain his current level of performance. Buttrey became the Angels closer at the end of the 2018 season. In a smattering of late big league innings, he put together a rare combination of a K/9 of over 11 and a BB/9 of under 3. He will be under team control through the end of the 2024 season. What’s to Like? Buttrey has a classic combination of size and tools to handle a role at the back end of any bullpen. At 6-6, 230 lbs, Buttrey has a 70-grade fastball which averages 97.5 mph in 2019 but he can crank all the way up to 100 mph. Buttrey throws his fastball approximately 60% of the time but also features a curveball (30%) and a strong changeup (10%). In addition to big velocity and strong command, Buttrey also has an excellent ground ball rate (around 45%), a combination which should allow him to occupy a high leverage relief role for the next 5+ years. Concerns There’s not a ton to be concerned about with Buttrey. His biggest concern is the lack of an established big league track record, which also means he has fewer miles on his arm than other options. Buttrey’s peripheral numbers are slightly worse than his ERA in 2019 (the reverse was true in 2018) with a FIP of 3.09. Buttrey’s ground ball rate has dropped significantly in 2019 (56% to 43%) although his 2018 MLB debut was only 16 innings. The biggest concern with Buttrey may be the price. With so much team control available to the Angels and a core featuring Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, there’s no good reason to move the Angels best bullpen arm. If they did, he would be one of the best arms available to the Twins at the deadline. See Also Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target View full article

It’s easy, with the 2019 Minnesota Twins, for their excellence to get in the way of reason and rationality. On Monday night, I found myself screaming at the team after a magical performance by Jose Berrios was squandered by poor offensive execution. It was a totally unreasonable reaction to a team that had won 47 of its first 71 games. When considering the moves Derrick Falvey and Thad Levine made this offseason, it’s fair to say that most have worked out superbly for the Twins. Image courtesy of © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports It’s easy, with the 2019 Minnesota Twins, for their excellence to get in the way of reason and rationality. On Monday night, I found myself screaming at the team after a magical performance by Jose Berrios was squandered by poor offensive execution. It was a totally unreasonable reaction to a team that had won 47 of its first 71 games. When considering the moves Derrick Falvey and Thad Levine made this offseason, it’s fair to say that most have worked out superbly for the Twins. When examining the performance of individual players, it’s important that context is factored in. What was their 2018 season like? What developments has the organization catalyzed in helping to maximize their production? Martin Perez should be viewed with such a contextual lens. The Twins signed Perez for $3.5 million with a team option year for 2020 (which they should pick up if he maintains his current level of performance). To put that another way, contract-wise, Perez was a lottery ticket reclamation project, who the Twins impressively turned around. He’s already been worth around $13 million to them based on his 2019 fWAR. Before we dig into Perez’s ups and downs, let’s set some historical precedent. Despite being a top prospect, it’s easy to overlook just how bad Perez has been throughout his career as a starting pitcher. In 2018, Perez put up a 6.22 ERA, his wOBA was .390 (bottom 1% of the league), xSLG was .471 (bottom 7% of the league) and his K% was 13% (bottom 1% of the league). Perez was, at best, a replacement level pitcher who gave up a ton of hard contact often. The addition of Perez’s cutter has completely transformed his outcomes as a pitcher. In 68.2 IP as a starter (he has 8.1 horrible innings in relief at the beginning of the season), he’s managed a 3.67 ERA, a .292 wOBA, and a K% of 22. Perez is in the top 5% of the league in Exit Velocity and Hard Hit%. To put it simply, he’s gone from giving up lots of hard contact, to less contact which is mostly soft. Perez really started to put things together in May. From the end of April to the end of May, he racked up 37.2 IP in six starts and gave up just 7 ER. Mechanical similarities and same-handedness had Twins fans ready to anoint the second coming of Johan Santana, then June happened. There’s been a ton of great work already published on Perez’s cutter. If you’re looking for a deeper dive on the pitch specifically, I’d suggest a great piece from Dan Hayes of the Athletic, or Twins Daily’s own Codie Christie, or a Baseball Prospectus piece from Aaron Gleeman. For me, pictures speak a thousand words, so I’ll just leave this beauty here (courtesy of Mike Petriello). One of the keys to Perez’s cutter has been his ability to locate the pitch, specifically down and in to right-handed hitters (more on that later). https://twitter.com/mike_petriello/status/1121942309573144577 Perez has struggled more in recent outings, giving up 16 ER in his last 4 starts, so has he fallen off a cliff? What can we expect moving forward? Looking at Perez’s peripheral numbers is a good starting point when looking at small sample sizes, as they tell their own story. Perez had one clunker at the end of May in which he gave up 6 ER in 2.2 IP. Outside of this start, his May and June have been similar process, with slightly different results. There are however, a couple of notable differences about Perez’s setup over the last month. Perez’s vertical release point has dropped slightly.. Additionally, his horizontal release point has shifted towards the first base side of the rubber. It’s natural for pitchers release points to vary significantly throughout the course of the season, but in Perez’s case, it’s been accompanied by less pinpoint command. Perez is throwing a similar percentage of strikes from May to June. (63% in May VS 64% in June). What’s been significantly different between the two months is his LOB% (79% in May VS 44% in June - his career average is 68%). The side by side pitch heat maps show the location of Perez’s cutter and fastball. The left hand image in each pair shows Perez’s incredible stretch from late April to late May, the right hand image shows late May to mid-June. What’s noticeable about each pair is the consistency of Perez’s command when he’s in a groove. Perez consistently buried his cutter down and in to right handed hitter in May and has struggled to find the plate with it with consistency in June. Perez’s fastball tells a similar story. In May, the clustering is middle-in to right handed hitters. In June, his consistency is gone and he is leaving more fastballs middle up and inside to left-handed hitters. It’s not certain that Perez’s move across the rubber and a drop in his vertical release are causing these less consistent offerings, but his consistency in managing the plate has diminished significantly in his last 5-6 starts. It’s time we view Perez for what he is. He’s not consistently going to be the pitcher who threw eight shutout innings against the Astros on May 1st. Conversely, he’s not going to be the pitcher who gave up six earned in 2.2 IP against Tampa Bay on May 30th. In Perez, the Twins have created a viable mid-rotation starter whose performance has already paid for his 2019 salary four times over. If Perez continues his level of performance throughout the 2019 season, he’s a no-brainer to return to the Twins in 2020 and to a rotation with very little certainty surrounding it. View full article

It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required. Who may be available? Today, we'll take a look at White Sox closer Alex Colome. Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required. Who may be available? Today, we'll take a look at White Sox closer Alex Colome. Alex Colome, RHP, 30-years-old Chicago White Sox (31-34, 3rd in NL West) Under team control via arbitration through 2020. 2019: 2.39 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 8.20 K/9, 2.73 BB/9 in 26.1 IP 2018: 3.04 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.53 K/9, 2.78 BB/9 in 68.0 IP Since his full-time switch into the Rays bullpen in 2016, Alex Colome has been a model of consistency at the backend of games for Tampa Bay and Seattle. In Colome, the Twins would be trading for an established closer. The White Sox acquired Colome from Seattle in exchange for Omar Narvaez in November of 2018, a very reasonable price for a high-end bullpen arm (although It should be noted that Narvaez is having a career year at the plate thus far in 2019, having amassed a 1.4 fWAR through his first 58 games played). Colome is earning around $7.3 million in 2019, and is under team control for one more full season in 2020 through arbitration (his age 31 season). What’s to Like? Colome has continued to put up excellent numbers for the White Sox in 2019. He is essentially a two pitch pitcher, featuring a four seam fastball and a cutter he throws at approximately a 40-60 ratio. Colome’s fastball tops out at around 94-95 mph range. Over the last 3 years only Edwin Diaz, Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Wade Davis have saved more games. This is in spite of Colome occupying a setup role to Edwin Diaz for Seattle for part of the 2018 season. Concerns There are a ton of indicators that Colome may be due for a regression in the near future. His fastball is down over one mph on average in 2019 (that’s an especially big deal if you only throw two pitches). Additionally, Colome has benefited from a .117 BABIP (compared to a career figure of .279). Colome’s K/9 has dropped sharply, although this figure has varied widely in his strong 4 year run between 7.8-11.2 K/9. Colome has also seen about a 10% drop in GB%, a sharp uptick in HR/9, and his FIP (4.22) and xFIP (4.59) belie his sparkling 2.39 ERA. Perhaps most alarmingly, Colome has gone from allowing approximately 4% of the pitchers opposing hitters contact to be barreled, to 14.1% in 2019, which is a figure in the bottom 2% of the league. Colome might be a solid add for a contending team in 2019, but the Twins should stay well away. See Also Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target View full article

Thanks, I appreciate you reading!

Definitely a great candidate for a bounce back year. Low risk, high reward potentially

LOL. You should write a more comprehensive blog post outlining the rest and what they might bring to the table. Just chose 4 I liked. Didn't claim a comprehensive list.

This is an interesting thought. I'd respectfully disagree. I think it's more nuanced than that. I agree that most of the guys that can take the pen ceiling to the next level are gone, but I think there are guys who can still raise the floor. If they were punting the season, I'd agree with you. If they had given their internal guys more innings on the back end of a lost season last year, then it maybe wouldn't be a question that needs answering.

LOL! Thanks for reading! I only started writing for the site last season, plus two kids, school to run, I'll get my rate up when spring gets going!

Great noticing. Very Gordon-esque tale of two halves.

Agree, definitely a ton of other names to look out for. I specifically looked at RHP but LHP would have included Alex Wilson and Xavier Cedeno.

Twins fans became apoplectic on Friday evening when Cody Allen, coming off a horrendous 2018, signed a one-year pact with the Angels. Allen represented the last big-name, big-rep free agent reliever available besides Craig Kimbrel. Twins Twitter instantly descended into a level of chaos usually reserved for dystopian Jimmy Butler practice sessions or Vikings kickers. I’m not here to talk about the payroll (too low, and I have a right to complain about eight years of pretty garbage baseball). I’m mostly interested in answering the question who are some free agent relievers who could help the Twins in 2019? Image courtesy of © Shane Roper-USA TODAY Sports Twins fans became apoplectic on Friday evening when Cody Allen, coming off a horrendous 2018, signed a one-year pact with the Angels. Allen represented the last big-name, big-rep free agent reliever available besides Craig Kimbrel. Twins Twitter instantly descended into a level of chaos usually reserved for dystopian Jimmy Butler practice sessions or Vikings kickers. I’m not here to talk about the payroll (too low, and I have a right to complain about eight years of pretty garbage baseball). I’m mostly interested in answering the question who are some free agent relievers who could help the Twins in 2019? As we know from the Addison Reed signing, or the Rockies bullpen in general, relief pitching free agency is a fickle mistress. With all that said, there are a fair few intriguing arms left. Here are a few I think could help the 2019 team while they’re … getting the nucleus right. Nick Vincent ERA 3.99, K/9 8.95, BB/9 2.40, FIP 3.75, xwOBA .279, avg. exit velo 85.0 https://gfycat.com/earnestselfassuredguineapig Vincent is one of my favorite under the radar FA relievers. He had a really solid 2018 with the Mariners, albeit in a ballpark which suits his game. He made his MLB debut in 2012 with the Padres. At 6’0, 185lb, Vincent does not overpower, with a four-seem fastball, cutter, slider, and changeup combination. His fastball averaged just 90.1 mph in 2018. Due to a combination of arm side run and rise, it generates a good amount of swings and misses for a pitch with poor velocity. Vincent finished 2018 17th (out of 310 qualified pitchers) in average exit velocity. His ability to induce weak contact, in addition to what should be a good Twins outfield defense, could set him up well in 2018. He made $2.8 million in 2018. Bud Norris ERA 3.59, K/9 10.46, BB/9 3.28, FIP 3.99, xwOBA .321, Avg. exit velo 86.6 https://gfycat.com/idealcomposedanchovy In recent years, Norris has made the transition from OK starter to pretty good reliever, most recently for the St. Louis Cardinals. At 6'0", 215 pounds, Norris has a more stocky, thick body, and it’s reflected in the type of reliever he has become. Norris offers a hard, flat fastball the averages 95 mph which he combines with a cutter, his best pitch. Norris generated an outstanding 58 percent groundball rate on his cutter. Opposing hitters managed just a .117 ISO against this pitch and a wRC+ 64. Norris has retained an encouraging level of consistency in his two seasons of relief work, putting up almost identical K/9, BB/9, FIP, and xFIP between 2017 and 2018. He could slot into the back end of the Twins bullpen as a setup option, or even close games in a pinch. Norris earned $3 million with the Cardinals last season. Brad Brach ERA 3.59, K/9 8.62, BB/9 4.02, FIP 3.67, xwOBA .284, Avg. exit velo 86.8 https://gfycat.com/jaggedunfinishedcob Brach is an interesting name. He’s been one of the most consistent mid-tier relievers in recent seasons, amassing 4.3 fWAR over his last four seasons (Taylor Rogers was the only Twins reliever to amass over 1.0 in 2018). Brach is a large human, at 6’6" 215 pounds. He has a track record of excellent consistency in his last five seasons, pitching at least 60 innings in each with an ERA never surpassing 3.59. Brach offers a hard fastball which averages 94.5 mph, a slider, and a changeup. Brach’s fastball took a step back last year, losing some velocity and effectiveness. He also has some of the most worrying peripherals, his K/9 decreasing from 10.48 to 8.62 in the last two seasons, while his BB/9 has climbed from 2.85 to 4.02. He made $5.2 million with Atlanta in 2018. Adam Warren ERA 3.14, K/9 9.06, BB/9 3.48, xwOBA .344, avg. exit velo 86.8 https://gfycat.com/soupyanxiousbrant The 31-year-old Warren is another solid option for the Twins. Warren has a track record of success, similar to Brach, amassing 4.8 fWAR in 3 excellent seasons with the Yankees. Warren has good, not great velocity to go with a good not great fastball. He generates most of his value from his slider, which, uniquely, he throws slightly more than his fastball, around 32 percent of the time. This is interesting considering the Astros success leveraging the breaking pitches of their staff to increase effectiveness. Warren made $3.3 million with the Mariners in 2018. Despite the Twins failing to land a bigger name FA reliever, there is still plenty of talent available on the FA market. Who would you like to see the Twins sign or trade for in the coming weeks? View full article

The hot stove is officially burning. With the trade of James Paxton to the Yankees on Monday, the offseason began in earnest. Over the coming weeks, Twins fans will be able to move from reckless speculation to analyzing the moves of their bold front office in addressing their pressing off-season needs. What’s evident in the work of the front office, is that they are not risk averse. With needs in the middle infield, bullpen, corner infield, and the rotation, Falvey and Levine seem intent on addressing them via as many angles as possible, including trades and player development. If there’s a personnel area that lends itself to free agency, it’s another strong relief pitching free agent class. Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports The hot stove is officially burning. With the trade of James Paxton to the Yankees on Monday, the offseason began in earnest. Over the coming weeks, Twins fans will be able to move from reckless speculation to analyzing the moves of their bold front office in addressing their pressing off-season needs. What’s evident in the work of the front office, is that they are not risk averse. With needs in the middle infield, bullpen, corner infield, and the rotation, Falvey and Levine seem intent on addressing them via as many angles as possible, including trades and player development. If there’s a personnel area that lends itself to free agency, it’s another strong relief pitching free agent class. Before adding, it’s important to examine what the organization already has. Last week, I took a look at some encouraging signs from Trevor May and his 2018 breakout. The Twins other primary bullpen asset is Taylor Rogers, an organizational success story who took strides to becoming a borderline top 10 reliever in 2018. If he can build upon his progress in 2019, its possible he can be a top 5 reliever. Bold claim? Let’s dig in. Rogers, a 2012 11th round pick, had occupied a typical LHP role in the Twins bullpen in his first two seasons. He was highly effective against LHH and struggled much more against RHH. There’s nothing unusual about that. In 2018 he took extraordinary strides that led to some truly impressive outcomes: 2018 (MLB rank among qualified relievers) BB% 6.25% (25th) xFIP 2.94 (14th) WAR 1.9 (11th) WPA 2.65 (9th) Rogers provided a set of qualities which, when spiraled together, make for a huge value add; left-handed, excellent control, and a high degree of success in high leverage situations. Similarly to previous seasons however, it was a tale of two halves for Rogers, which hinged around him adding a slider midway through the season. Before digging into Rogers’ new pitch mix, it’s worthwhile to examine his historical performance, particularly with regard to his lefty/righty splits, which usually separate elite left-handed relief pitchers from situational left-handed relievers. Here’s a breakdown of Rogers’ splits against LHH and RHH in his three MLB seasons with the Twins. These data are a testament to Rogers development over time. Rogers has gone from being completely ineffective vs. RHH to above average in 2018, posting career best avg., K%, and xFIP against opposite handed hitters. He has always been a highly effective pitcher against LHH. Nevertheless, his K% against LHH spiked dramatically in 2018 (36% K rate overall would put him eighth among MLB relievers, right ahead of Adam Ottavino). That Rogers is building on his strengths in addition to improving his deficiencies is a huge positive for the Twins. Rogers ability to pitch to right handed hitters makes him an extremely valuable commodity. He amassed an fWAR of 1.9 in 2018, good for fifth among left-handed relievers (for anyone who doesn’t appreciate WAR for relievers, read this). Dan Hayes beautifully detailed how Rogers added his slider midway through the 2018 season. Unsurprisingly, this significantly altered Rogers’ pitch mix – detailed below: These numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt given that Rogers only began throwing his slider in May, and in earnest approaching and after the All-Star break. Rogers add of a third pitch had a variety of positive impacts on his outputs throughout the season. Most obviously, Rogers slider reduced the load on his fastball, which is a good, if not great pitch. Despite mixing his slider into his repertoire cautiously at first, Rogers, per Hayes, is unyielding in his claim that he only gave up one hit on the pitch all year, a remarkable accomplishment for a new pitch folded in mid-season. The most dramatic impact Rogers made in 2018 was the improvement of his curveball, which went from a below average pitch in 2017, to a pitch worth about eight runs in 2018. Rogers made a variety of mechanical alterations to his curveball in 2018, under the tutelage of then bullpen coach Eddie Guardado. Guardado encouraged Rogers to increase his arm extension upon releasing the pitch, making his mechanics more repeatable. This is born out in Rogers improved command of the pitch in 2018. Rogers was consistently able to work his curveball down in the zone with his improved delivery. Rogers was so consistent with his curveball command that he significantly limited opposing hitters’ ability to contact the pitch. O-Contact% measures the frequency with which opposing hitters contact pitches thrown outside the strike zone. In the second half of 2018, Rogers ranked fifth in this metric among all relievers at 40.6% (league average is around 65%). Statcast offers visuals which illustrate Rogers’ command of his breaking pitches. Below are images of all the pitches Rogers threw in two separate outings. On the left, a 2017 outing against the Rangers. On the right, a 2018 outing against Pittsburgh. The blue graphics represent Rogers’ curveball, the yellow, his slider. Notice the tight clustering at the bottom of the zone is his 2018 appearance, compared to more of a spread from his breaking pitches in 2017. Rogers' improved command, combined with more horizontal and vertical movement on the pitch in 2018, resulted in an offering with a soul-crushing level of dominance. In 2018 Rogers gave up a .330 OPS, .015 ISO, and .152 wOBA via his curveball, with a 51.5 K%, a truly dominant pitch. As Rogers confidence in his new pitch mix improved, so did his results. After July 28th, he didn’t give up another earned run all season, an incredible run spanning 28 appearances, during which Rogers gave up a .119 avg., .147 wOBA, and a K/BB of 9.7. Extrapolating Rogers second half numbers to a full season is a mouthwatering, if foolish prospect. After the 2018 All-Star break, Rogers was the second most valuable reliever in baseball and raised his K/9 to 11.00. Parsing those numbers out over a full season and Rogers is the fifth most valuable reliever in MLB. While this may be an unrealistic expectation for 2019, Rogers is an incredible success story in player development and a high leverage relief pitching option the Twins should build their bullpen around for the foreseeable future. View full article

This sounds like a great counter argument you should put in a blog post @TwinsDaily