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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    Posnaski's issue comes up when people use bWAR for pitchers. Its why fWAR uses FIP in its equation.
  2. jimmer
    exactly.
  3. jimmer
    people in baseball think and/or have thought lots of things. things like pitchers win totals tell us how good a pitcher is. That rbi totals tell us if a guy is clutch or not, that fielding % tells us how good a defender is. Group think, especially in a traditional business where 'wisdom' is passed on from generation to generation, isnt proof of something being true. Having said that, i never said there is no value in veteran mentorship. Thats a thing for sure, in all business. What i dont believe is that Hunter's veteran presense is what caused a 70 win team, talent-wise, to turn into a 83 win team.
  4. jimmer
    Napoli was worth 1.0 WAR last year and 0.7 in 2015. Persuing him would be horrible.
  5. jimmer
    yeah, i am fine with the Castro signing. Its an attempt for sure and they are valuing framing, which is nice. The thing I warned about is expecting Castros framing numbers to be the same here as with Houston. A day or two later Dave Cameron warned the same thing. He wrote in his chat, 'if the team that employs Mike Fast isnt interested in bringing you back, maybe your framing value isnt as likely to continue as the Twins are hoping'
  6. jimmer
    Well, he certainly did in May of 2015.
  7. jimmer
    you mean like that highly praised catcher Murphy we traded for? :-)
  8. jimmer
    Hard pass
  9. jimmer
    you are wildly stretching to make a point. Who is complaining about what the FO has done so far? While some are saying that the move mentioned in the article, signing Castro, isnt bold or deserving to be described as a strong start, few are actually saying it was a bad signing. You mention things The FO has done that arent mentioned in the article that you like, and thats fine, but that doesnt mean people who may like the moves, but arent as enamored with them, have to be labeled the way you labeled them.
  10. jimmer
    you are definitely entitled to believe its both if you want. I am going to heed Chi's warning and move on from the descriptions of the Twins Front Office moves.
  11. jimmer
    they can platton Jay and Almora
  12. jimmer
    the fact that little else has happened in the FA market doesnt make the Castro signing bold or strong. might make it quick. And you bring up the Plouffe non-tendering which wasnt mentioned in the article at all when describing the start as strong and bold. Additionally, non-tendering Plouffe is also not bold or strong. Teams dont tender contracts all the time. Again, Twins fans have had the bar set horribly low they get excited over minor moves.
  13. jimmer
    exactly. And hardly bold either. You know the Twins organization has set the bar embarrassingly low when Jason Castro signals a strong, bold start.
  14. jimmer
    indeed
  15. jimmer
    Well having a career year at age 30 usually means peak. There are exceptions, but most position players start trending down on offense (and even more on defense) when they hit the 30s. Doesn't matter if he's valuable for us for the next two years, we aren't going to be good. Then he becomes a FA and if he's still good, goes somewhere else for more money and we get nothing back that's near MLB ready that WILL help us when we are good. And if the idea is wait one more year before trading him, what if he trends back to more regular Dozier? Still valuable, but now the gaining team only has one year of him and he DIDN'T just have a career year. We've been holding on to players at least one year too many for ages now, selling low or not selling at all. Dozier, right now, is a great chip (so is Santana). Neither will be with us when we are a contender. No point in keeping them when we can get players who will help us for many years.
  16. jimmer
    Maybe, or he'll DH if defense is somewhat important to the new bosses. BTW, welcome to the boards.
  17. jimmer
    His WRC+ in 2014 was 117, in 2015 it was 102 and this year it was 132. That's not a steady increase. 132 is WAY higher than anything he's done and he just turned 30.
  18. jimmer
    Bellinger has only had a K% at 27% ONCE. In 2015 at age 20. He hasn't been over 24% at any other time. So how is he at 27%? He isn't. For his career, he's at 23.7%. Palka is at 31.3% Bellinger when getting promoted dropped his K rate from 21% to 20%, raised his BB rate, and his numbers weren't helped by BABIP.. Palka struck out almost 40% of the time this year, his BB rate dropped, and his BABIP was like 40 points higher than Bellinger. And, again, huge age difference. Bellinger is much younger than Vargas and Palka and a quality defender, That has to be looked at too. Those reasons, amongst others, are probably why Bellinger is one of the top prospects in baseball, and Palka doesn't sit in OUR top 10 list of prospects. You may think Vargas and Palka compare favorably to Bellinger, but you're wrong.
  19. jimmer
    that and the fact runs and RBI are not solely a function of what he does but what his teammates do in conjunction with what he does. shouldn't look at those numbers and conclude anything about the player's talent.
  20. jimmer
    Dozier has NOT been on a steady incline in offensive production. Dozier's 2014 was better than his 2015 and then 2016 was easily his best season. He's at his peak right now. The time is NOW to trade him.
  21. jimmer
    Vargas is 26, doesn't play good D, had a horrible 2015, only had one good month this year (in 18 July games) and then reverted back to 2015. I don't think much of him. Palka is 25, a K machine, and doesn't get on base. I don't consider him any kind of prospect and he's certainly not a top 10 Twins prospect (and our farm system isn't exactly heavy in elite prospects). Neither of the above are anywhere near 21 year old Cody Bellinger who just hit AAA.. I didn't consider Sano because he's not a 1B prospect. He may end up there (more likely DH), but he hasn't yet. Also, he's not a prospect anymore. He lost his rookie status in 2015 and then spent the whole year in the majors this year. He's a major leaguer. I never said we should target Bellinger. I'd LIKE it if we could get him, but I'm all about getting pitching for Dozier. And I've given what I thought was a realistic trade package from the Dodgers. Bellinger wasn't in it (nor was Alvarez)
  22. jimmer
    So last week, I wrote this about the Segura and Walker trade. Notice the bold part. Today, Fangraphs wrote this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/was-the-jean-segura-trade-really-the-mitch-haniger-trade/
  23. jimmer
    If Terry Ryan had hired them, I'd have the same feelings on the subject.
  24. jimmer
    and he is really good on defense too.
  25. jimmer
    Twins do not have a single 1B prospect that is good. Not one that is as good as Bellinger both offensively and defensively. Having a group of guys that can only play 1B or Dh doesn't actually mean having quality prospects for 1B. Santana and Dozier will not be around when this team is really good again, and they are at peak trade value. They should get prospects that hopefully WILL be around when we are really good again.
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