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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    From Gleeman at NBC Sports: "Last season Ricky Nolasco pitched horribly for two months before finally admitting to the Twins that he was playing through an injury, so when he had a rough 2015 debut Wednesday afternoon I joked on Twitter that they should save time and simply ask him if he’s hurt again. Turns out it wasn’t really a joke. Nolasco revealed that he felt pain in his elbow three batters before leaving the loss to Detroit and is now headed back to Minnesota to undergo an MRI exam..."
  2. dbminn
    Chattanooga has an incredible AA roster and Rochester has fine AAA pitching staff. That being said, don't confuse potential with current ability. The combined team would be soundly defeated by the Twins...right now. Next year at this time, it should be a different story. This is the year when prospects separate from suspects, when call-ups will bring a bit of fun to a fifth year of 90 losses. The young guys will get their feet wet, ready to compete next year. You can say they're a year behind the Astros with call-ups but they are not a year behind in performance (the Astros won only 70 games as well). I say they are a year behind the Cubs. I expect spring training next year to have several dogfights for roster positions, just like happened in Chicago this year. And, like in Chicago, we will again find some hope for the future. So here's to a successful first half to Chattanooga's season. And a hopeful second half to all the players that move to AAA and the majors!
  3. dbminn
    Terry Ryan has assembled a team with a mixed message - partially building for the future and partially relying on veterans to "win now". The results will also be mixed. I suspect the Twins will win about 75. Prospects will be brought up in reaction to injuries and failures, instead of starting the year with youngsters on the team. Mauer returns to his 2012-2013 level and improves at 1B. Rosario will be with the team by the All-Star break to provide a bat for CF and as a late-inning glove for LF. May takes over for Millone or an injured pitcher as the year progresses. Hughes and Santana regress, but not as much as the computer models suggest. Gibson is the breakout player of the year. Dozier will rock. Vargas is a big question heading into the year. Is he the August Vargas or will he need to be sent back to the minors for seasoning? Berrios, Burdi and Sano will wear a Twins uniform this year. Sadly, because of all the veterans on the team, it may be only in September. I would also love to predict that the Twins will be active at the trading deadline, moving Pelfrey, Nolasco, Duensing, Fien and Nunez. I just can't see Ryan actually pulling the trigger.
  4. dbminn
    Two issues: Platoon, the problem is not the Twins players who are dependable, it is those who are not. We were three starting pitchers short of a dependable rotation and two or three outfielders short of a dependable defense. That is why the Twins lost 90 games last year. The bigger concern for me is Ryan's vision of the team: Does he see a competitive team this year or one that is building for the near future? Moving Danny Santana to short looks to the future. Not acquiring a solid defensive centerfielder seems to be part of a long-term plan. Signing Ervin Santana, Duensing and Stauffer looks like a short-term program. PS - I actually view the one-year Hunter contract as part of the long-term plan because he can mentor two outfielders that don't play consistent defense and do not have enough quality at-bats. (Obviously, Arcia is farther along than Hicks but he still gives away too many swings, especially against quality pitching). Unlike Santana and Nolasco, Hunter will be done by the time the prospects are ready.
  5. dbminn
    A team needs players that can play multiple positions to compete. Polanco will add to the Twins positional flexibility, taking either 2B or SS . Santana should be used the same way. Here are a couple of lineups showing possible flexibility: Start of This Year: OF - Arcia, Santana/Hicks, Hunter IF - Plouffe, Escobar/Santana, Dozier, Mauer By Middle of Next Year: OF - Rosario/Santana, Buxton/Santana, Arcia IF - Plouffe/Sano, Polanco/Santana, Dozier/Polanco, Mauer Someone will either get injured, traded or not pan out as an everyday player. Letting Polanco and Santana play multiple positions will give the Twins needed depth and flexibility until everything is settled.
  6. dbminn
    Back spasms early in the season. Oblique injury early in July. It's no wonder Mauer had trouble pulling the ball. Mauer hit much better after he healed (125 WRC+ during the second half). Mauer had good seasons in 2012 and 2013. It's all a matter of health.
  7. dbminn
    Seth, I think Phil Hughes had an impact on May's improvement as well. Is that a decent read? (Hughes also thanked Anderson for his help)
  8. dbminn
    May as 5th starter, Meyer in the bullpen, where he can learn to be aggressive and throw strikes.
  9. dbminn
    While he doesn't match up with Chief Bender and Jack Morris, I want to give a shout out for Jerry Koosman. Career 65.8 WAR, 222 wins.
  10. dbminn
    There shouldn't be a timeline for sending a prospect back to AAA. He should be sent down if he is overmatched or is not making progress with the hitting coach (especially if the player can't field). The decision to send someone down is easier if you have a major-league replacement for the prospect. Based on WAR, here are a couple of old Twins successfully sent to AAA: Torii Hunter was sent down in 2000 as a 24 year-old and came back a much better player. Cuddyer was sent down in 2003 as a 24 year-old and improved. Teams in contention or with depth will send top prospects back to AAA to make adjustments. Teams like the current Twins will keep top prospects at the major league level because they have no one else. On contending teams, Gomez and Arcia would have been sent down. The Twins needed them too much, so they've had to "make adjustments" in the majors. It took Gomez 5-6 years to reach his offensive potential. It will probably be 2016 before we see Arcia as an "adjusted" major leaguer. It's possible that the Twins will successfully send players down for seasoning this year or in 2016, as enough prospects begin to reach baseball maturity. The Cubs may have a regular conveyor belt to AAA if they don't trade some prospects. They basically have two players for every position except 1B and C.
  11. dbminn
    Good news. Definitely worth the risk.
  12. dbminn
    The Twins also brought up Cristian Guzman, Carlos Gomez, Alexi Casilla and Johann Santana when they were young (even ignoring Santana's Rule V season).
  13. dbminn
    It seems to me that players should be called up when they're mentally and physically prepared for the major leagues. Lightfoot789, you could add Blyleven (19 years old) and Hrbek (21) to the list. Also, add two excellent players who had their careers cut short: Lyman Bostock (24) and John Castino (24). KGB, there's a difference between "call-ups" and potential stars. Have the Twins left any potential stars languishing in the minors? We have all seen that the Twins haven't been shy about calling up young hitters the last two years. We will see more young hitters in the next 18 months. Our best pitching prospects have been delayed by injuries (Meyers and Gibson). I suspect we will see pitchers like Berrios, Burdi and Reed get to the majors before they're 25 years old in the near future.
  14. dbminn
    mike wants wins: Yes, both major and minor league rosters. Both the Cubs and Twins are loaded with prospects. That's how you build a team that's competitive for the long run. You can't rely on the success of one prospect but you can hit with many prospects. I think it's a toss-up between the Cubs and Twins. The Twins have a much better distribution of prospects in terms of pitching/hitting, speed/power. The Cubs are loaded with power guys who have been striking out at tremendous rates in the minors. (Of course, Theo will probably spin a couple of these hitters for pitching). Santana and Vargas outperformed all three of the Cubs call-ups last year.
  15. dbminn
    Peter Bourjos. He is an elite defensive centerfielder. Remember the Angels moved Trout to left until he demanded a return to center. He had a chronic hip problem last year but recently had surgery and will be ready to go in spring training. He will be reasonably priced and will be a huge help to our pitching staff.
  16. dbminn
    So how many of you would trade the Twins roster and farm system right now for the Cubs system?
  17. dbminn
    An example re: block averages. Here are his slash line averages in 5 year / 1 year / 5 year blocks: 2004-2008 .317/.399/.457 2009 .365/.444/.587 2010-2014 .309/.392/.432 This scenario recognizes 2009 was a career year, with even block averages on either side. Now he's showing just moderate regression, or almost none, if you consider he's been at Target Field since 2010.
  18. dbminn
    Averages are not useful when determining trends. Variability is what's interesting. He was injured in 2011 and a chunk of 2014. This is really the question: Can he stay healthy? No, he will never have a season like 2009 again but 2012 and 2013 were just fine.
  19. dbminn
    According to Baseball Reference, Mauer after the DL (Post-August 10) had a line of .289/.397/.408. BR has Mauer's OPS+ vs. splits at 137 and 134 for August and September. I expect he'll have a better average and slugging percentage if he can stay healthy. To those that say he's been on a rather dramatic decline, here's his 2013 stat line: .324/.404/.476 Only Mauer's 2006 and 2009 seasons were better. It's not crazy to believe he could have an upside that looks similar to 2013.
  20. dbminn
    Much rather trade for Tyson Ross, if available. In either case, it will cost more than Pinto as a trade centerpiece.
  21. dbminn
    Twins are rebuilding from a farm system full of serious prospects. We will see another six to eight of them in the next year and a half. It would be inane to trade for a rent-a-pitcher like Samardzija or sign a gold plated free agent like 31 year-old Jon Lester when they aren't going to compete this year. It would be even worse to sign someone like Masterson, who is going to get overpaid for too many years. Yes, the Twins need to pursue a defensive centerfielder this year. I'd be happy if they could put together a package of prospects for a young pitcher like Tyson Ross. Otherwise, I'm going to enjoy watching the prospects start their major league careers.
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