walt-o-meal

Only 2 hits? Come on, Alex...

God bless Joe F. Mauer. According to LEN3, he says he had to play because his mom was at the game. Here's hoping child #3 is a boy, so he can get drafted by the Twins and hit some guilt dingers for grandma.

It has been suggested here, that Twins manager Paul Molitor intentionally ordered a third HBP on Jurickson Profar in Friday's game. This is a fine hypothesis. In my opinion, hypotheses should be tested. Let's do it. ---------- The Hypotheses ---------- H1, the experimental hypothesis: Molitor hates it when players steal with a big lead, and will get retribution by having his guy to throw at the offending player. H0, the null hypothesis: Big-lead steals have no effect. Batters get hit sometimes, but the outcome of an at-bat will be no different than after attempting to steal with a lead. ---------- The Relevant Evidence ---------- Let's define a big lead as 5 or more runs. Scouring Retrosheet, I see 4 cases of an opposing batter stealing with a lead of 5 or more runs against a Molitor-managed team (2015-18). Exhibit A. 6-26-2015 Twins at Brewers. With a 6-1 lead in the second inning, Ryan Braun steals second off Alex Meyer (he later scores on a Carlos Gomez single). Braun gets 3 more PAs in the game (outcomes summarized below, for the sake of drama). Exhibit B. 9-30-2015 Twins at Cleveland. With a 5-0 lead in the 4th inning, Jason Kipnis reaches on an error. Following a Jose Ramirez popout, he steals second and later scores on a Francisco Lindor homer. Kipnis gets 2 more PAs in the game (again, outcome below. Is the suspense killing you?). Exhibit C. 6-17-2017 Twins vs Cleveland. With an 8-3 lead in the 7th, Jason Kipnis (him again?) is caught stealing. Kipnis gets one more PA in the game (I'll bet you don't remember what it was!). Exhibit D. 6-23-2018 Twins vs Texas. With a 9-2 lead in the 4th inning, Jurickson Profar steals 2nd. Profar records 2 more PAs in the game (ok, you might remember these ones). ---------- The Predictions ---------- Now, before reading on, record your prediction for these 8 PAs, given your assumptions about Molitor's process. 1. how many HBPs? 2. how many walks (perhaps accounting for an agile batter, who knows what's coming ans can avoid the HBP above) 3. how many pitcher ejections? 4. how many manager ejections? Its a small sample, but larger-than-expected numbers for any of these would be evidence supporting H1. In science, we like to use p < .05 as a criterion for rejecting the null hypothesis. Here are the proper expected values for the null hypothesis: 1. Using .00816 as the random probability of HBP (from SABR: https://sabr.org/research/matchup-probabilities-major-league-baseball), there is a 6.30% chance of 1 or more HBP (using a standard binomial distribution). Suspicious, but not sufficient for a conclusive rejection of H0. 2 or more HBP yields a lean .0018, which should be enough to convince even the stingiest of skeptics. 2. Walks are more common, having a .0745 chance in each PA (again from SABR). Using that figure, we get binomial probabilities of 0 or more walks out of 8: 1.000 1 or more walks out of 8: 0.462 2 or more walks out of 8: 0.115 3 or more walks out of 8: 0.017 So 3 (being < .05) shall be our criterion for an abnormally high number of walks. 3/4. Ejections are so rare that even 1 in 8 PAs has a sufficiently small probability of occurrence to draw attention. So 1 it is. ---------- Data and Conclusions ---------- Finally, here are the at-bats so cruelly denied to you earlier: A. Braun: 3rd inning K; 6th inning 2B; 8th inning K B. Kipnis: 6th inning K; 8th inning IBB C. Kipnis: 9th inning 2B D. Profar: 7th inning HBP; 9th inning K That adds to 2-6, 4K, 1 BB, 1 HBP. No ejections, and the lone walk was intentional (ie, not out of self-preservation). There is no compelling statistical reason to reject the null hypothesis on any of the 4 figures. The one HBP yields a value numerically close to .05, but not there statistically. Also note it was to a guy that is pretty good at getting plunked (and may have leaned into a pitch his previous at-bat). Thus, use of the league average .00816 could have deflated the true p-value. The most compelling evidence appears to be Molitor's comment, "We wanted to give him an opportunity to steal another base." This could be interpreted as an indicator of intent, or perhaps as a self-deprecating indictment of his team's inability to control the running game. I am skeptical of the former, as it would seem to be begging for a fine from the league. Like him or not, Molitor is surely savvy enough to avoid such statements, even if he is a retributive head-hunter. Finally, I am unaware of any direct quotes from Molitor that include "unwritten rules" or "respecting the game". If they exist, please post them. ---------- Final Disclaimer ---------- Note, this does not mean that the HBP was not intentional, or that Molitor does not aim to retaliate against big-lead SBs. It merely means that there is not sufficient evidence to support such accusations.

Zoiks!

I like Joe Mauer.

1989: 6-year old Joe Mauer is introduced to football by childhood crony [name redacted], who coaxed him away from the quick-swing contraption in his back yard by telling him "you could be a radical QB for us. Your arm is totally tubular. Like, to the max." On hearing the rules of football, a Zubaz-clad Mauer was suspicious. "Grody. You mean I just throw the ball where I want? I don't have to hit it with a stick, or bounce it off the Andersons' Volkswagen or anything?." Mauer softened his skeptical attitude after winning the city championship with an MVP performance during the notorious blizzard of '89. The following spring he reflected, "Guess I gotta do something when the weather gets all gnarly. Maybe I'll even get a college scholarship some day and play football in a really sweet climate". "Not even!" said older brother Jake, uncorking his best fastball. "Even", retorted Joe, lacing a double off the Anderson's Volkswagen.

We're #1! We're #1! We're #1!

I give this article a S.T.R.E.R.O.I.D.S. score of 5. (Stategically Turning Erroneous Roster Outliers Into DavidOrtiz Syndrome)

Rafael Palmeiro will win it. Guaranteed.

I recommend that the left field umpire also rest before Tuesday. http://www.twincities.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/20130815__8-15-replay-Cuzzi.jpg?w=650&h=434

1985 is also the year that brought us Joe Mauer's 2nd birthday. That week the talk of the neighborhood was "Bonko Bert", a local clown hired by the Mauer family to entertain the children. http://aarongleeman.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/bert-blyleven-i-love-to-fart-shirt.jpg "I felt bad for him. He had just moved to town from Cleveland so I thought I'd help him out with some work", explained Mr. Mauer. But the afternoon didn't go as expected. "His act is clearly appropriate for an older crowd - Way too many F-bombs. Plus, he was awfully gassy. The boys thought a farting clown was hilarious of course, so I let him run with it. But when he gave grandma a hotfoot, I told him he had to go." Nevertheless, the family expressed Minnesota-nice patience and sympathy for the unrefined entertainer. "I hope he's got another job, because I just don't see him succeeding in comedy", Mauer shrugged, adding "Hopefully something outside, in a well-ventilated area."

1984 also brought us Joe Mauer's first birthday. In lieu of cake, the event was celebrated with a gallon of 2% chocolate milk, which young Joe noisily slurped from a Twins logo sippy-cup. The day was also notable as the first annual Mauer 3-on-3 baseball classic, in which Joe went 3 for 4 against grandfather Jake's fastball ("No sliders until he's three. I'm not a monster"). He was lifted for a ghost runner in the 8th inning. "Joe's kind of a liability on the basepaths at this point", explained Teresa Mauer, family matriarch and player/manager of Mauer's Mashers. "Plus, he gets really cranky after 5 o'clock".

After play today: Win WC2:.880 (+.150) Win WC:.409 (+..071) Win ALDS:.127 (+.023) Win ALCS:.044 (+.008) Win WS:.012 (+.003) Daily odds indicate we're moving in the right direction. Optimistic thought of the day: The Twins are 53x more likely to win the WS than they were on 8/1.

Oops. You're right. .463 was the chance of winning the wild card game. Securing the second wild card AND winning the wild card game would be .73 * .462 = .338. Here are the corrected numbers: Win WC2:.730 (+.110) Win WC:.338 (+.055) Win ALDS:.104 (+.020) Win ALCS:.037 (+.007) Win WS:.009 (+.002)

After Friday's (9-22) games: Win WC2: .730 (+.110) Win WC: .463 (+.006) Win ALDS: .143 (+.007) Win ALCS: .050 (+.003) Win WS: .013 (+.001)

Here is daily odds for Twins make playoff levels. Is base from win percent and binomial function. Win Second Wall Car: 0.62 Win Total Wall Car: .457 Win ALDS : .136 Win ALCS .047 Win WS: .012 And here is graph to make clear. I update if you like. Win Twins!

I want Joe to play his entire career as a Twin, and I think he does too. MLB appears to be cracking down on "personal services contracts", so it could be sticky. But it seems like they could arrange for him to play until he cant and then transition into hitting coach, or milk sommelier, or something else he'd be good at.

I take the spirit of the question to be "can the Twins compete in the post-season?" We all have intuitions about it, and they're much appreciated. The maths though, can be more precise than "I think team A is better than team B (and dust hands, having settled the issue)". For example, Bill James log5 tool uses Bayes' Theorem to predict the probability that team A will defeat team B. Using today's records for Minnesota (.513) and New York (.559), it gives the Twins a .454 chance of winning. That says they're underdogs, but not prohibitively. Should they advance, we can use the same tool with likely ALDS opponent Cleveland (.625), yielding the Twins a .387 chance of winning an individual series game. The binomial distribution then can tell us that the cumulative chance of Minnesota winning 3 or more out of 5 is .295. A steep hill as most would anticipate, but not the Murderhorn. Similarly, anticipating Houston (.616) in the 7-game ALCS gives a .396 chance of our Twins winning an individual game, and .282 chance of winning 4 or more of 7. Boston's win % is a bit lower than Houston's, so the numbers would look a little bit better. Again, I'd prefer to be the favorite, but this would look like another series that's at least worth tuning in to see what happens. I'll be watching. WIll you? Math!

Terry Leach. I have an autographed copy of his memoir "Things happen for a reason". It's yours for $800. No, $925.

How about 17 straight, and 29 out of 33.

I have 2 comments: I like to watch Byron Buxton catch baseballs. I hereby purchase a beer for Trevor Hildenberger (his choice; I recommend Stone IPA) and and grant him a day off tomorrow*. * days off subject to approval of Twins management

Fact: If the Royals were not allowed to walk Joe Mauer he would be hitting .310. #4th batting title.

If Gibby were left-handed, I'd be tempted to call him "crafty".

How awesome would a 5-way tie be? Walt is calling in sick that morning. And probably the next one.