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dxpavelka

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Everything posted by dxpavelka

  1. dxpavelka
    "Will the resurgence be as abrupt as it was in those aforementioned instances? Of course, the answer is 'probably not." Of course the answer to the same question in those afforementioned instances was also 'probably not'.
  2. dxpavelka
    If we're giving 2014 performance the most weight then the pendulum probably swings in the direction of Milone.
  3. dxpavelka
    I'm totally fine with May, Meyer, Milone or even Pelfrey WINNING the job in camp. You've already pretty much committed to 4 spots going to guys who don't have to win them. Nothing wrong with making at least one guy take the route that got Gibson the job last year. Do you REALLY think that a guy who can't get the job done in March is magically going to get it done over the course of the following six months? There's also no guarantee that the first four will emerge from camp unscathed and totally healthy. If I didn't know what team I was reading about when I read all these comments I'd think we were discussing the 1971 Orioles. We had the worst rotation in the league last year. Pretty sure we are not quite yet at the point where we now have an embarrasment of riches at the position but it is nice to have viable options. All that being said, I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I expect that Milone breaks camp as the # 5. I'm far less concerned about the makeup of the rotation in April than I am in the makeup of the rotation from May to September.
  4. dxpavelka
    RE: I'm still a little confused why Vargas has been anointed as the starting DH and cleanup hitter with very little debate or skepticism. Have you seen the other options?
  5. dxpavelka
    Every player has a down year at one point or another. It's called a slump. Mauer's just happened to be last year. If he performs at last year's level for the next 4 years it will be easy to replace him. If he performs at the level he performed at prior to last year it will be less easy. Chances are his performance will be somewhere in the middle. The decision will most likely be difficult either way. That's why we as fans are lucky that our evaluations are only made on blogs like this and we don't have to live with the repercussions, whatever they may be.
  6. dxpavelka
    Or you could just say he walked a lot. No need to re-invent the wheel.
  7. dxpavelka
    "I've found that you don't need to wear a necktie if you can hit."- Ted Williams
  8. dxpavelka
    The point is that all those guys, at one point or another, and to varying degrees had opportunities presented to them and took those opportunities and ran with them. If Santana had performed in a Hicks esque manner he would have been back in Rochester in short order. Same for Vargys.
  9. dxpavelka
    The way for young players to avoid being "blocked by less talented veterans" is for the to take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves and win jobs like Gibson did in spring training last year and Santana & Vargas did during the season. Any young player that needs to be "given" a shot rather than forcing the issue and "taking" his shot probably isn't going to be going to part of the next division winner either.
  10. dxpavelka
    By definition a guy can't be in your top 10 AND a sleeper. Change the sleeper (probably not for this year) to Mitch Garver. Added 55 points to his BA when going up a league and also hit 16 home runs.
  11. dxpavelka
    I would assume he would look the same as any other guy who starts out hot and cools down a little when the book on him is developed. Pretty much every player that reaches the big leagues goes through it. Many survive. I see no reason Vargys won't / can't.
  12. dxpavelka
    The exciting thing for me is that hopefully we have reached a point where when we are promoting guys they are legitimage prospects who are ready to contribute at the big league level. Santana and Vargys last year were a good start. I get frustrated when we are moving up guys like Hermann and Fryer and Colabello and Bernier because I know they are not guys who are likely to have sustained success as big league starters for five to 10 years.
  13. dxpavelka
    You are correct that there are no guarantees when throwing money at starting pitching. You fail, however, to take the point far enough. There are no guarantees when throwing money at anything. Josh Hamilton anyone? Mo Vaughn? Johan Santana as a Met? The 2014 Yankees? Phillies? Red Sox? About half of all free agent signings turn out to be duds, especially on the back half of the contracts. The best use of salary dollars tends to be re-signing your own home grown talent-If you do so for the right amount, at the right time for the right players that are the right fit for you team. You also can't put yourself in Billy Beane's chair you can't build your team around guys who are going to steal bases. Guys who get on base, yes. But guys whose game is bunting and stealing bases, no. Also the historical Twin "bashers" you listed had a total of eleven 30 home run seasons in Twins uniforms with exactly zero of those seasons coming from 1988 to 2005. Don Baylor hit one (post-season) home run in a Twins uniform.
  14. dxpavelka
    I have trouble putting .242 career average and quality hitter in the same sentence unless we're talking about a consistent 30-40 home run guy. I'm not seeing it.
  15. dxpavelka
    They didn't, but pitchers aren't stupid. Eventually, they're going to stop nibbling at the corners against a guy who doesn't beat you with power or average.
  16. dxpavelka
    Based on his 2014 production, Dozier is a top 5 MLB 2B. His batting average, however, was lower than any other top 25 2B meaning that a significant amout of his production was based on power and speed. Those power & speed numbers diminished significantly over the 2nd half of 2014. If you project those numbers to cut in half in 2015, a fairly reasonable possibilty based on his post All-Star break numbers, he goes from top 5 to about top 13. Take away his power and his walks most likely drop as well because pitchers aren't going to avoid the strike zone when pitching to a .242 hitter without power. This probably drops him another 5-10 spots. Kind of hard to justify an extension for a guy who probably projects as 10th best in his league at his position and produces little that is not power based. He also struck out more than any 2B as well. All this being said, I hope he proves me wrong, maintains his power & speed numbers and raises his batting average to .275. I'd be happy as hell.
  17. dxpavelka
    What would Oakland do?: Probably lose an early playoff series. I thought we were shooting for a different model.
  18. dxpavelka
    All this advanced metrics stuff makes some of us wonder how guys managed to build teams for a hundred years before it became all the rage.
  19. dxpavelka
    Care to wager whether Dozier's number wind up closer to 36 & 32 than to 10 &10? Was Trout's post all-star production less than a third of his pre all-star production?
  20. dxpavelka
    HR & SB can easily be cut in half. Just witness his pre and post all-star splits. HR: 18/5; SB: 16/5. Double down on those two fives and tell me about the defensive prowess of a 10/10 guy with a career .241 average.
  21. dxpavelka
    You can never have too much pitching. And since we've still only made one significant addition (Santana) to the league's worst rotation I'm pretty sure we don't have too much yet. Not yet worried about "blocking the young guys." If we get to a point where it makes sense for the young guys to be in the rotation there is always a market for reasonably priced starting pitching. And while Twins fans look at the contracts of Hughes, Nolasco & Santana as huge deals, a lot of big market clubs would see them as reasonable. Much easier to move a 4 year $55 million deal than a 6 year $155 million deal. As far as an extension for Dozier, I'd like to at least see him hit .245 once before I committed to such a move.
  22. dxpavelka
    I see a guy who CAN be a good defensive outfielder and in most situations is. Again, I still think most of his issues start just below his hat. I've spent a lot of time in my life working with young kids. Each of them responds differently to teaching/training/coaching/management. Hopefully, the current staff will be the one able to get the message accross.
  23. dxpavelka
    If you thought Gomez was going to be an all-star you don't make that deal. There weren't a dozen Twins fans in the state who were sad to see him go either. Most of those same people would love to see the Twins trade Hicks for a starting anything right now.
  24. dxpavelka
    I'm not sure the problem is a few feet below his hands. I think it might be about a foot above them. 90% of this game is half mental and Hicks doesn't seem to have mastered that part. We know he CAN hit. We've seen it in spring training. The question is what happens inside his head when the lights turn on and the games count. He has not been handed the CF job the last two years. He's won the job in camp. We're also still talking about a guy with less than 550 career big league plate appearances. In spite of the horrendous batting average of his rookie year, 40% of the hits he did get were for extra bases. Can't give up on this kid with less than 1000 plate appearances. See Gomez, Carlos.
  25. dxpavelka
    Hicks got the nod the last two years because he actually performed during spring training, especially 2013 when his spring OPS was 1.051. He didn't do quite as well last year but still hit .330 in the spring. What he's failed to do was hold the job once he'd won it. Gibson also WON the job last year. I have no problem with the young kids having to win jobs and hope they do.
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