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Cap'n Piranha

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  1. Cap'n Piranha
    Twins bullpen in August, with MLB ranks; 9 k/9 (15th), 2.2 bb/9 (1st), 0.95 HR/9 (3rd), .332 BABIP (26th), 35.5% GB rate (28th), 4.02 ERA (8th), 3.36 FIP (2nd), 4.16 xFIP (7th), 1.7 WAR (2nd). Perhaps Falvine knew what they were doing at the deadline.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    As I understand it, that is incorrect. When predicting playoff odds, the data is input, and then simulations are run. Based on the numbers I gave above, if 1,000 simulations are run, the Twins made the playoffs in 974 of those simulations (883, 336, 149, and 73 for the other rounds, compared to 824, 524, 216, 91, and 44). As to whether Cleveland is more likely to advance given the same position as the Twins, that is slightly true based on reaching the division series (38.1% to LCS, 16.9% to WS, 8.3% win WS for Twins, 41.2%, 17.4%, 8.4% for Cleveland), but flips back to the Twins favor for reaching both subsequent series.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    According to Fangraphs, the Twins have a better chance than the Indians to make the playoffs (97.8 to 81.5), make the ALDS (89.1 to 51.8), make the ALCS (36.4 to 20.7), make the World Series (15.0 to 9.1), and win the World Series (7.2 to 4.6).
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    The difference between May and Duffey being options 2A and 2B, and May and Duffey being options 4A and 4B is absolutely massive.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    Dude, we can debate multiple definitions at the same time. I've stated, explicitly and multiple times, that based solely on on-field production (which is the current criteria), Trout is the MVP, it's not close, and it should be unanimous. If the MVP is restricted to the current year (which it should be), but pay is included (which it also should be), Trout is much less valuable, due to the fact that each point of WAR costs $4.2M (Kepler is $1.7M, Acuna is $196k, Bellinger is $88k). Those 3 players cost less than half of Trout this year, but have combined for almost twice the WAR. Here's an example for you; say you are told you can have one bowl of ice cream, and you get a choice between two bowls. One has 3 scoops, and costs $5, while the other costs $2 for 2 scoops. If all you care about is maximizing your ice cream, you'll get the 3 scoop bowl. However, if you get the 2 scoop bowl, you can use your extra 3 dollars to buy a brownie, some hot fudge, whipped cream, and a cherry. The latter option clearly has more value, which should perhaps be taken into account when conferring an award that has the word Valuable right in it.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    If the MVP vote is based solely on current year production, Mike Trout is the clear and only choice. If he doesn't win it unanimously, people should have their voting privileges taken away. If it's based on current year value, which would include salary, arguments can be made Trout shouldn't be in the top 5. To illustrate this, think about if the Twins had signed Berrios to a 6 year, $150M deal before the season started, but Berrios had the exact same season. He's clearly less valuable in that scenario than in one where he's not extended, despite identical production. If we're talking organizational value, Trout shouldn't even be on the ballot. Anthony Rendon has put up 5.2 WAR this year so far (8th among hitters). However, since he cost $18M this year, and is a free agent after this year, Juan Soto, Trea Turner, and Victor Robles all have far more value. Think of it this way; who do you think would require more in prospect capital to acquire; Mike Trout or Ronald Acuna? If the answer is Acuna, that would seem to make it pretty obvious that Acuna is more valuable.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    Other than much of what determines a player's value to his organization comes from his salary, age, and future seasons. If you throw those things out, the Twins should clearly trade Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol, Larnach, Sano, Garver, and Berrios for Trout. After all, by MLB WAR, Trout is better than all 7 of those players this year combined.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    That's why I answered twice. If my name is Jeff Bezos, and I just bought a team with the sole goal of winning a world series, no matter the cost, Trout. In literally any other scenario, Acuna is a vastly superior option. Also, while I'm sure voters don't take contracts into account for MVP consideration, they probably should. Bellinger on a rookie contract is massively more valuable than Trout on his contract. In fact, if a metric that divided WAR by salary existed, Trout is probably not one of the 25 most valuable players ion the league by that measure--he might not even be top 50.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    In a vacuum? There is no player I wouldn't trade straight up for Trout. In the real world? I'd rather have Acuna. Acuna will cost the Braves a maximum of $123M for the next 9 years--a time period in which he will probably post more WAR than Trout who will have cost a minimum of $329M. What do you think you might be able to do with an average of $22.9M every year for the next 9 years?
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    You could argue that in a macro sense, Mike Trout is the least valuable player in baseball. The Angels are currently 63-66; subtract Trout's 8.4 WAR, and that drops to 55-74. In other words, Mike Trout single-handedly drags the Angels to mediocrity, ensuring they don't get access to the premier talent at the top of the draft, or the larger bonus pool needed to get talent in the second and third round. The Angels can't enter a full-scale rebuild, dumping veterans to buttress the farm system, and throwing their own prospects out to see who sticks. Over the past 7 full seasons, the Angels are 584-550 (average of 83-79). Take out Mike Trout's 64.2 WAR, and they're now 520-614 (average of 74-88); to put that in perspective, over the same timeframe, the Twins have been 507-627 (average of 72-90). Further, while there is no other player the Angels could get to replace Mike Trout, his large salary (along with Pujols and Upton), prevent the Angels from getting immediate help. Put another way, Kepler and Polanco have combined for 7.4 WAR this year (88% of Trout), but at 25% of the cost, leaving the Twins $26M free to play with. Is Mike Trout the best player in baseball? Currently there is no doubt that he is, and perhaps the best ever. Is he the most valuable? At least in my opinion, no.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    I don't know that outrage is the right word here. I think annoyance is a better term. If that ball slips a little bit when the pitcher throws it, maybe it hits Kepler in the head. Maybe it hits him in the wrist, breaks a bone, and Kepler is done for the year. Neither of those are implausible, and both would be ridiculous, given that the beaning was in retaliation for a hitter attempting to hit. If the Rangers don't want the Twins to try up 8 in the 9th, then forfeit. Otherwise shut up and play the damn game.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    First 3 runs came against the starter. Next 3 came against two guys who rank 3rd and 4th by FIP and 1st and 4th by xFIP in the Atlanta pen. They also have 87 IP between them, so it's not like it's SSS (at least for relievers). I think it's quite likely the Braves would've handled their pitching largely the same regardless of how many runs they had.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    I put this loss on Rocco. When he sent Berrios out for the 6th inning despite Jose already having allowed 6 hits, 3 walks, and 5 runs, to me Rocco was signalling saving the bullpen was more important than winning the game. If Stashak is given a clean 6th, and Littell a clean 7th, perhaps this game is more like 7-6 or 8-6 going into the 8th.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-teams/ This is from April 2016, but it puts the Astros at $60M (top 10), compared to the Twins at $37M (bottom 10) Forbes also put their 2015 revenue at $270M, compared to the Twins at $240M. I'm going to bet the Astros are doing more than that now, while the Twins are about the same.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    Dallas is "down the road" from Houston in the same way Hibbing is down the road from Minneapolis. The Astros market also probably includes much of Louisiana, as well as San Antonio, which is the 24th largest metro area on its own. Let's stop pretending Houston is a mid-size market all of the sudden.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    And you know that LEN3 is not in contact with any individual in the Met's organization...how?
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    My wife is a fairly reasonable woman, and understands that sometimes there are excuses, and sometimes there are reasons. I'm fairly confident she would not blame me for rain or getting rear-ended, nor would she have preferred I strand our child at school in order to mow the lawn. Although that being said, as my wife and I are childless and live in an apartment building, this is completely theoretical on my end.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    Of course there were questions before the season, but in a season that started with hopes of competing for a wild card. Blaming Falvine for not seeing the best offensive season in baseball history coming seems a little much. If they did think they were going to be on 100 win pace for the entire season, then yes, I would absolutely question their decision to bet everything on Rogers, Hildenberger, and May. I also have no problem with speculation, I have a problem with leveling absolutes based on merely speculation. If people want to speculate Falvine is balking at asking prices, that's one thing. Instead, people are speculating that Falvine aren't really doing anything, other than perhaps leaking some false reports so they don't look bad when they don't make a trade
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    This is an analogy, and therefore these are not little distractions. The faulty spark plug is an injured prospect, the rain is a team not being interested in your prospects, picking the kid up from school is working on a separate deal, and getting rear-ended is another team swooping in and stealing the player you were trying to acquire. None of those are little distractions, and are all things every baseball executive must deal with. Demanding something get done despite insurmountable obstacles is a good way to make calamitous decisions.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    In this analogy where the mower is the prospects and the yard is the trade return, I assume the Twins neighbor (another MLB club) isn't going to let them use their prospects to get a deal done, at least not without some cost. If it's a beer, fine. If it's your brand new car, not so much.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    Sure, because we all know that spark plugs only fail in winter, and when they do fail, loudly announce that fact immediately.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    Again, a lot of assumptions here (unless you have proof I haven't seen). It's entirely possible this wasn't dumped, but leaked. I can't fault Falvine if an unidentified staffer has a beer too many and blurts out something to a reporter they shouldn't. I also can't discount that it could've been someone from the Mets putting that report out--maybe they would have been happy to get Buxton, but they were actually trying to drive up the price with another organization. There is just so little information out there, not to mention the meaning behind it, that it is impossible to gauge the effectiveness of a front office's efforts unless you are on the inside. Since none of us are, I choose to believe that our FO is good at what they do, given the results on the field, and the general misery of assuming otherwise.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    So if you go out to mow your yard, but the mower won't start because of a faulty spark plug, and once you've replaced the spark plug, its started to rain, and once it stops raining you have to go pick up your kid at school, and once you've picked up your kid you get rear-ended on the drive back home, and once you've finished dealing with the police and insurance the sun has gone down, leaving the yard unmowed, it's because you didn't try? Yoda, by his own definition, is also a failure. He did not prevent the rise of the Sith, leading to the creation of the empire, and the death of millions, if not billions of sentient beings.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    I would love to know where I said that. I have offered only rationales for why the FO has not completed any deals bigger than Romo, while stating that lack of results is not the same as lack of activity. If you read some of the posts on here stating the level of irritation posters would have if no trade is completed, it's quite clear that a number of people think they're not really trying.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    No one is saying Activity > Results. I (and others) are saying No Results <> No Activity.
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