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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    He IS the best shortstop in the game, but he is also old, injury prone, and expensive at the same time; nowhere does it say those things have to be mutually exclusive. I would have been ok trading for Tulo, and I would have been ok not trading for Tulo, based entirely on the acquisition cost.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    If Buxton starts in AAA next year, I would guess it's because they did decide to put their best players on the field, and Buxton wasn't yet one of them.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    Kohl Stewart is at High A, and has been all year.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    You really think the Rockies would have traded the best shortstop in the game for Arcia, Stewart, Meyer, and Santana? There is no possible way that would happen.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    That's not a good start.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    One interesting tidbit on Gibson is that he's becoming more of a strikeout pitcher, k'ing more than 8/9 in both June and July, while also hiking his GB/FB rate.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    Of course there's risk. There's risk both ways. TR's job is to assess the relative levels of those risks, and act appropriately. When you have a decent, but not good team, the prospect package it would take in multiple deals to move from decent to good or great is so large, the risk of watching Berrios/Kepler/Polanco/Stewart et al potentially star elsewhere outweighs the risk of not attempting to improve this club through trades.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    I'm saying that if Dozier was/is so convinced the Twins FO won't make the team better, why the hell did he sign his extension? I understand he gave up no years of free agency, but he certainly could have made more in arbitration while playing in such an allegedly depressing locale.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    Yeah, they're in the second wild card spot--doesn't yet qualify as a success for me. What if Tulo and Price both get hurt this week. The Royals came close to missing the playoffs with Shields, but had a great run for sure. Now Shields is gone--don't you think the Royals would like to have Odorizzi fronting their rotation right now? As for Detroit, they didn't really take "risks". Trading for a 25 year old Miguel Cabrera is hardly a risk. Trading for a 29 year old David Price is hardly a risk. I've never said the Twins should never trade, I've said they would have had to take such a huge risk in order to get a team to the Royals/Pirates/Cardinals/Yankees/Dodgers that I wasn't interested. I'd rather keep my young nucleus together, and let them become the stars.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    We're starting Suzuki because we have no better options, either before the season started, or now. And while Ramos isn't a stud, he's certainly better than Suzuki (Suzuki has a 58 wRC+ and -.3 WAR, Ramos is 71 wRC+ and .4 WAR).
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    The All Star break was on July 14, and 12 games were played after that and before the trading deadline. Are you saying Dozier foresaw the lack of action by the FO, and pre-emptively became depressed?
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    That makes no sense whatsoever. What you're in essence saying is that if TR doesn't make a trade for 10 years, the next trade he makes is much more likely to be a good one, since the risk of not acting is piling up. I would argue that continuing to make moves piles up the risk just the same, as if the move fails, you have to make another move to fix that, and then maybe another move to fix that one. For example, in 2010 Bill Smith took a risk. Because he did, we're starting Kurt Suzuki at catcher this year and next, not Wilson Ramos.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    You're right, I forgot about his -2.3 UZR/150--16th in the league. I'll give you baserunning, although it's hard to make an impact on the basepaths when you're sipping Gatorade on the bench. And yes, take away a player's biggest skill, and they become worth less. But Dozier has become a black hole on offense--he's turned into Chris Carter. All-stars and team leaders should have more than one skill propping up their value. Miguel Sano isn't getting good pitches to hit, so he's talking walks.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    With that logic, the risk is equal between doing something and doing nothing. Therefore, doing nothing is no more of a risk than doing something. Ask San Diego how taking a risk has turned out for them.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    Dozier needs to stop complaining, and realize that he's been a big part of the problem ever since the AS break. Slashing .203/.276/.406 while striking out 34% of the time isn't getting it done. That's the issue with Dozier and his one tool--if he's not getting XBH, he's a replacement level player.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    That was the question. Just because you don't like the answer doesn't mean it isn't the answer to your question. When you're trading prospects, the only bad thing that happens is if the prospects you traded end up being studs. Say we traded for Price and Cespedes, and they led us to the wild card game, where we lost. Meanwhile, the prospects I mentioned become stars, and re-launch the TIgers franchise--that's bad. Alternatively, let's say we say no to the deal, and Cespedes turns into Mickey Mantle for the rest of the year, and Price is Cy Young, while in the future, our prospects all flame out, and are out of baseball by 2019. Then standing still was bad.
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    The Royals also had a historically great bullpen. Spoiler alert--we don't.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    For me it's the standard because the playoffs have been expanded. Playing one game and going home does nothing for me. I don't care if we get to hang buntings for a day. I don't care if we get nationally televised for one game. If the Twins can't go into a series and say "we've got a chance to win this", I don't care if we make the playoffs. In 2001 through 2011, I felt the Twins could've won every series they were in. They (almost) never did, but there was never a series (except maybe 2009), where I honestly thought we couldn't win. As for Papelbon, I would have been fine for acquiring him for Taylor Rogers or some AA starter, because he makes you better this year and next year. I would've been fine with getting Tulo for a package of Gibson/Berrios, Polanco, and say Walker. My guess is that the Rockies wanted Sano or Buxton included (I have no proof of this), but if that was the price, pass. That being said, Tulo makes me nervous, as he's on the hook for $20M for the next 5 years, with a full no-trade clause. He hasn't played more than 130 games since 2011, and 150 since 2009. He's seeing more fastballs than ever, but he's making career-low contact when swinging. He's chasing more pitches outside the zone, and swinging through pitches at a career-high rate. This suggests that pitchers aren't as intimidated by him, which is borne out by his elevated k-rate (highest since his rookie year) and decreased bb rate (career low). He's 31 in October, and his declining UZR suggests he may be losing his range in the field. If that's the case, that's a lot of money to pay an injury-prone player who can't play second (Dozier) or third (Sano), leaving him as either a defensive liability at short, or a DH.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    In truth? The Rockies/Padres/Phillies seriously competing for the WS in 2017-2021 with Kepler/Berrios/Polanco/Stewart et al prominently involved.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    I have to quibble with the pennies on the dollar statement. You can't judge this trade now because the Rockies got Reyes and 3 lottery tickets. Castro started the year as the Blue Jays closer, at the age of 20. That didn't stick, but again, he's 20. Hoffman was the ninth overall pick just last year. Tinoco has a 2.76 FIP in A-ball this year. Additionally, I've never stated that people were advocating to fix every hole. I'm saying, what's the point of fixing any of the holes, as just fixing one won't make us a legitimate contender this year. Let's say we got Tulo--are you cool with playing a one-game playoff started by Phil Hughes? Let's say we got David Price--do you think our dumpster fire bullpen can hold a lead when it counts? Maybe we got a couple relievers to solidify the bullpen--do you trust our rickety lineup to score enough to get us the win? I think we could, but I'm not confident about it. I just don't get this idea that making the wild card game is something to be excited about. Do you think A's fans are fondly remembering their appearance in the wild card game last year? Saying making the wild card game is making the playoffs is like saying making the "First 4" game in Dayton is making the NCAA tournament.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    Better? Sure. Good enough to make the playoffs? Maybe, maybe not. To be a legitimate threat to not only make the playoffs, but do something once they got there, the Twins would need another bat, a frontline starter, and at least 2 good relievers. The package of prospects it would have taken to do all that would have been immense--think Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, Stewart for sure, and probably at least one of Gibson/May/Sano/Buxton. That's way too much to give up.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    Let's also not forget Stuart Turner, who is right in the midst of his traditional second half surge. He slashed .310/.405/.423 in June, and in 27 games since the AS break, he's at .278/.371/.389, with 13 walks to only 16 k's. The word on him was always strong defense, and he actually has his best career rate at throwing out opposing baserunners (24 of 58--41%).
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    Per usual, Cory and Kris did everything but throw black cats and broken mirrors at the Twins... "should Duffey intentionally walk Donaldson, since Bautista is only 1-9 this series?" "Bautista has been ominously quiet" Thanks jerks.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    Because we were so worried about Ben Revere's Extra Base power?
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    First, where are you getting .825 OPS against righties? Fangraphs puts him at .779 in 40 PA's, which puts him 79th in the league, or two thousandths of a point behind something called Ender Inciarte. Second, I was never saying Arcia is worse than Robinson--he's clearly not (other than in speed and defense from your fourth outfielder). I was simply saying putting Arcia fifth behind Sano does absolutely nothing to relative terror levels of opposing pitchers.
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